UCLA 1975 Advances as Value Add point spreads continue incredible accuracy

In our second straight game the new great DYNASTY TEAM in our tournament survived an early foul out by their center to beat the new team in the game because one their PLAYERS is not ranked by the NBA as one of the greatest 75 players in history.

In the ratings on this google sheet when we create the teams, the 1975 UCLA team is a +11 and their opponent the 1960 Detroit Mercy team is a -3, making UCLA a 14-point favorite in the game. Based on www.kenpom.com calculations, a 14-point favorite has about a 91% chance to win. Ralph Drollinger, the 7-foot-2 center from John Wooden's last NCAA champs, fouled out early.

The 14-seed Detroit kept it closer against the 3-seed UCLA, with super star Dave DeBusschere scoing with 7:40 (13 possessions) left to cut the UCLA lead to 55-52. On the next trip, Larry Hughes hit a 3-pointer, and the game was tied 55-55 with a chance for the big upset. However, UCLA then went on a 12-0 run over the next over the next 10 possessions to put the game out of reach en route to a 72-60 win.

The last of the 4 big underdogs added because they had an all-time great player is Bowling Green, that will go in as a 12-point underdog with just a 13% chance against the 1978 Kentucky team. Here are all 8 match-ups: 

Favored by	Chance	Result	Favorite	Year	Rating	Underdog	Year	Rating
24	99%	W 80-66	Cincinnati	1962	17	Syracuse	1966	-7
18	95%	W 85-65	UCLA	1964	15	Villanova	1950	-3
18	95%	TBD	Kentucky	2012	16	Dartmouth	1944	-2
14	91%	W 72-60	UCLA	1975	11	Detroit Mercy	1960	-3
13	89%	TBD	UCLA	1967	14	Kansas	1952	1
12	87%	TBD	Kentucky	1978	10	Bowling Green	1963	-2
10	81%	TBD	Duke	1992	11	Connecticut	2011	1
6	71%	TBD	UNLV	1991	11	North Carolina	2017	5

The chance of winning has proven very accurate in the 274 games between great teams with a favorite have proven incredibly accurate - not too few or too many upsets - based on the chance our predicted spread based on the team ratings would predict. 

UCLA was the 17th team to be a 13 to 17 point favorite, meaning www.kenpom.com would predict a 91% chance of winning - and in fact their win makes the favorites in those games 15-2, or 88%.

As you can see from our tracking table, team's that are 1 to 6 point favorites are expected to win 65% of the time, and in fact those teams are just a few wins short of that at 94-60 for 61%. A team that is favored by 7 to 12 averages winning 80% in real basketball, and in the game they are right there at 71-17 or 81%. And finally teams that are favored by 18 or more should win about 96% of their games, or 24 of 25, and so far they are 15-0 in our game.

The interesting thing is that while the chances of winning are amazingly accurate for favorite teams, the margins of victory for one group of teams has been closer than expected - with teams favored by 13-17 points per game winning by an average of only 7.5 points per game during their 15-2 start.

 

Favorite	W	L	Act W%	Expect W%	ppg	Allow
Games where teams are favored by 1 to 6	94	60	61%	65%	75.3	71.7
Games where one team was favored by 7 to 12	71	17	81%	80%	76.3	67.8
Games where one team was favored by 13 to 17	15	2	88%	91%	77.8	70.3
Games with an 18 to 29 point favorite	15	0	100%	96%	75.1	58.3
Total Favorite All Games	195	79	71%
22 Games with no favorite	22	0	NA	NA	76.7	67.6

In the tournament that leaves Mike Thurmond, one of four players who got his team in this tournament by breaking into the NBA's all-time top 75 players list, with the last of four chances for a "great player" team to beat one of the four new dynasties addedtto the game in 1978 Kentucky, which will be a 12-point favorite and thus have an 87% chance to advance and potentially face another great  Kentucky team and Anthony Davis in the Elite 8.

Likewise if Kareem Abdul-Jabbar can lead 1967 UCLA past Kansas 1952, they will face the first undefeated UCLA champ in the 1964 Bruins from just before he arrived on campus.

Here are the players from both teams.

Detroit Mercy 1960	Ht	Actual Season Stats
Ray Albee	5'9	14.4 Pts,4.2 Reb
Larry Hughes	6'4	11.7 Pts,8.1 Reb
George Heger	6'3	5.0 Pts,5.4 Reb
Dave DeBusschere - star	6'6	NBA,25.6 Pts,20.0 Reb
Charlie North	6'6	19.8 Pts,14.2 Reb
Tom Villemure	5'9	2.1 Pts,0.3 Reb
Frank Chickowski	6'1	4.3 Pts,3.1 Reb
Bob Wright	6'4	1.4 Pts,1.5 Reb
John Parker	6'4	1.2 Pts,2.1 Reb
Dick Dylus	6'8	1.3 Pts,0.7 Reb
UCLA 1975	Ht	Actual Season Stats
Pete Trgovich	6'4	10.2 Pts, 3.3 Reb, 2.9 Ast
Dave Meyers	6'8	NBA,18.3 Pts, 7.9 Reb, 2.6 Ast
Marques Johnson	6'7	NBA,11.6 Pts, 7.1 Reb, 1.7 Ast
Richard Washington	6'11	NBA,15.9 Pts, 7.8 Reb, 2.2 Ast
Ralph Drollinger	7'2	NBA,8.8 Pts, 7.4 Reb, 1.2 Ast
Jim Spillane	5'11	4.5 Pts, 1.2 Reb, 1.7 Ast
Andre McCarter	6'3	NBA,7.0 Pts, 2.3 Reb, 5.0 Ast
Casey Corliss	6'6	3.1 Pts, 1.3 Reb, 0.7 Ast
Wilbert Olinde	6'7	3.1 Pts, 2.0 Reb, 0.9 Ast
Brett Vroman	7'0	3.5 Pts, 2.6 Reb, 0.5 Ast