Sunday, April 4, 2021

300,000 Visits Before Classic Gonzaga Win

Fittingly hours before Jalen Suggs won one of the greatest college games in history, www.pudnersports.com topped 300,000 visits. This would calculate in the millions if using the same analytics used by non-blogger sites (see explanation). On this site,

78% of visitors go directly to www.pudnersports.com where they can scroll through the last several stories. 

12% click directly on the instructions and playing cards for the Value Add Basketball Game.

10% click directly on some other link.

This was accomplished despite the fact that we have not spent a dime to boost or advertise the site this year since someone set up a scam on my Facebook boost at Value Add Sports last year.

Also yesterday, thousands opened an email we send to sports contacts including primarily sports writers, but also athletic departments and then several hundred contacts I've added. 

Thanks all for visiting the site, and the email sent yesterday featured a photo of Gonzaga's Jalen Suggs hours before he banked in the historic game-winner. Here is the preview pictured below, followed by the email:

---------- Forwarded message ---------
From: John Pudner, Value Add Basketball
Date: Sat, Apr 3, 2021, 4:21 PM
Subject: Final 4 Tip-off in Hour on CBS - Analytical Preview of the Teams, Players, NBA Prospects
To: John R Pudner Pudner <pudnerjohn@gmail.com>

Click on the photo below for this preview of the Final 4, which tips off on your local CBS station in an hour. Two of our most accurate Value Add Basketball brackets picked Gonzaga to defeat Houston in Monday's championship after both win tonight. However, our other top bracket, which emphasizes senior guards, picked Baylor to upset Gonzaga in the title game after both win tonight.

While most hope and expect a great showdown between Houston and Baylor in the first game, Gonzaga is not only a 14-point favorite against UCLA in the nightcap, but has the top two NBA prospects playing tonight (see photo below) and ranks at www.kenpom.com as the greatest team of the Century as they try to have the first perfect season since Bobby Knight's 1976 Indiana Hoosiers. While we noted before the tournament Gonzaga ranked 10 points better than any other team in Value Add, and we expect them to win, those who pull for underdogs can take a ray of hope from the following; everyone has been underestimating the the Pac-12 in both the men's and women's tournament. Last night's women's semifinals resulted in an all-Pac 12 women's title game when Arizona stunned the UConn women, who like Gonzaga today were also 14-point favorites. Also, the 2nd best team this Century based on www.kenpom.com is the 2015 Kentucky team, which was undefeated until the national semifinal, when they were upset by Wisconsin. If UCLA repeats that feat, then they would give the Pac-12 the all-time record with 14 wins in one men's tournament.

Click on the photo below for our preview and turn on CBS in the next hour, and we include 247 player links for all players expected to play at least 10 minutes in either game tonight, as well as the top two players in the country not playing tonight,  Evan Mobley and Luka Garza. - John Pudner 404.606.3163

Ranking the best scorers, defenders and NBA prospects in the Final 4

The following breaks down the 29 players expected to play at least 10 minutes tonight in Final Four games and note if each player ranks on the top 5 of a key www.kenpom.com category or in the top 10 of one of the following rankings at www.valueaddbasketball.com:

  1. Most likely success in the NBA (Jalen SuggsCorey KispertDavion Mitchell)
  2. Best defenders (Jalen SuggsDeJon JarreauJared Butler)
  3. Highest overall Value above Replacement or Value Add (Drew TimmeQuentin GrimesCorey Kispert).

For those of you who like tables, you can click here to see the Value Add brackets that rank in the 100th to 98th percentile of more than 17 million brackets submitted. The strongest bracket so far is the one based on the Value Add Rankings of the players on each team PLUS the deepest run of the coach in a past tournament (good news for Marquette with Shaka Smart for next year).

In addition to this list, you can find the most valuable 100 players in the country in this story, or look up any of the 4000+ players at www.valueaddbasketball.com. This story details how USC’s defense led by Evan Mobley helped him edge out Luka Garza as the most valuable overall player.

4 p.m. CT - Baylor vs. Houston – Players Expected to Play 10+ Minutes 

Baylor

MaCio Teague #31 Baylor 6’4" SF; 36 likely minutes played today. 10th best NBA prospect (61%), 9th most valuable player (7.43 pts > replacement), best at protecting ball (10% turnovers), 4th best free throw shooter (86%), best at avoiding fouls (1%).

Jared Butler #12 Baylor 6’3" SG; 34 likely minutes played today. 5th best NBA prospect (89%), 4th most valuable player (8.73 pts > replacement), 3rd best passer (assists on 28% of baskets), 3rd best defender (erases 2.66 pts/game), 2nd best at steals (4%).

Davion Mitchell #45 Baylor 6’2" PG; 32 likely minutes played today. 3rd best NBA prospect (96%), 5th most valuable player (8.37 pts > replacement), 4th best passer (assists on 27% of baskets), 3rd best 3-pt shooter (45%), 7th best defender (erases 2.12 pts/game), 5th best at steals (3.4%).

Adam Flagler #10 Baylor 6’3" SG; 25 likely minutes played today. off rating 128 (5th), 4th best 3-pt shooter (42%), 4th best free throw shooter (86%).

Mark Vital #11 Baylor 6’5" PF; 21 likely minutes played today. 2nd best offensive rebounder (14% of misses), 8th best defender (erases 1.81 pts/game), 2nd best defensive rebounder (20%), 5th best at blocks (4% of shots).

Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua #23 Baylor 6’8" C; 20 likely minutes played today. 5th best offensive rebounder (12% of misses), 4th best defensive rebounder (19%), 5th best at blocks (4% of shots).

Matthew Mayer #24 Baylor 6’9" PF; 17 likely minutes played today. best defensive rebounder (22%), best at steals (5%).

Flo Thamba #0 Baylor 6’10" C; 16 likely minutes played today. 3rd best offensive rebounder (13% of misses), 4th best at blocks (5% of shots).


Houston

Marcus Sasser #0 Houston 6’1" PG; 37 likely minutes played today. 3rd best at protecting ball (11% turnovers), 3rd best free throw shooter (88%), 10th best defender (erases 1.69 pts/game).

DeJon Jarreau #3 Houston 6’5" PG; 36 likely minutes played today. 10th most valuable player (7.19 pts > replacement), best passer (assists on 30% of baskets), 2nd best defender (erases2.86 pts/game).

Quentin Grimes #24 Houston 6’5" SF; 34 likely minutes played today. 6th best NBA prospect (88%), 2nd most valuable player (9.68 pts > replacement), 5th best 3-pt shooter (41%), 2nd best at drawing fouls (4%), 5th best defender (erases 2.38 pts/game).

Justin Gorham #4 Houston 6’7" PF; 32 likely minutes played today. off rating 130 (2nd), 3rd best at protecting ball (11% turnovers), best offensive rebounder (16% of misses), 4th best defensive rebounder (19%).

Fabian White #35 Houston 6’8"; 19 likely minutes played today. best at protecting ball (10% turnovers), 3rd best offensive rebounder (13% of misses), 2nd best at blocks (7% of shots).

Reggie Chaney #32 Houston 6’8" PF; 15 likely minutes played today. 2nd best shooter (65 eFG%), 4th best 2-pt shooter (65%), 5th best offensive rebounder (12% of misses), 3rd best at blocks (6% of shots).

Tramon Mark #12 Houston 6’5" SG; 14 likely minutes played today. 2nd best at drawing fouls (5%).

Brison Gresham #55 Houston 6’8" C; 14 likely minutes played today. by far best at blocks (11% of shots).

7:30 CT - Gonzaga vs. UCLA – Players Expected to Play 10+ Minutes


 

UCLA

Jaime Jaquez #4 UCLA 6’ 6" SF; 39 likely minutes played today. 8th most valuable player (7.46 pts > replacement), 6th best defender (erases 2.16 pts/game).

Jules Bernard #1 UCLA 6’ 6" PF; 39 likely minutes played today.

Johnny Juzang #3 UCLA 6’ 6" SG; 32 likely minutes played today. best free throw shooter (90%), 2nd best at avoiding fouls (2%).

Tyger Campbell #10 UCLA 5'11" PG; 30 likely minutes played today. best passer (assists on 30% of baskets), 2nd best at avoiding fouls (2%).

Cody Riley #2 UCLA 6’9" C; 20 likely minutes played today. 2nd best at drawing fouls (5%), 2nd best defensive rebounder (20%), 5th best at blocks (4% of shots).

David Singleton #34 UCLA 6’4" PG; 12 likely minutes played today. 3rd best at protecting ball (11% turnovers), best 3-pt shooter (47%), 2nd best at avoiding fouls (2%).

Kenneth Nwuba #14 UCLA 6’9" C; 12 likely minutes played today. 5th best at blocks (4% of shots).

 

Gonzaga

Andrew Nembhard #3 Gonzaga 6’5" SG; 36 likely minutes played today. 9th best NBA prospect (66%), 2nd best at avoiding fouls (2%).

Corey Kispert #24 Gonzaga 6’7" PF; 36 likely minutes played today. 2nd best NBA prospect (98%), 3rd most valuable player (9.16 pts > replacement), off rating 133 (1st), 2nd best shooter (65 eFG%), 3rd best at protecting ball (11% turnovers), 2nd best 3-pt shooter (45%), 5th best 2-pt shooter (62%), 2nd best free throw shooter (89%), 2nd best at avoiding fouls (2%).

Jalen Suggs #1 Gonzaga 6’4" PG; 35 likely minutes played today. best NBA prospect (99%), 6th most valuable player (8.04 pts > replacement), 5th best passer (assists on 24% of baskets), 2nd best at drawing fouls (5%), best defender (erases 3.32 pts/game), 4th best defensive rebounder (19%), 2nd best at steals (4%).

Joel Ayayi #11 Gonzaga 6’5" SF; 32 likely minutes played today. 4th best NBA prospect (92%), 7th most valuable player (8.02 pts > replacement), off rating 129 (4th), 5th best shooter (64 eFG%), 2nd best 2-pt shooter (68%), 4th best defender (erases 2.47 pts/game), 2nd best at avoiding fouls (2%), 4th best defensive rebounder (19%).

Drew Timme #2 Gonzaga 6’10" C; 29 likely minutes played today. 6th best NBA prospect (88%), most valuable player (9.96 pts > replacement), off rating 130 (2nd), best shooter (65.9 eFG%), 3rd best 2-pt shooter (67%), best at drawing fouls (6%), 4th best defensive rebounder (19%).

Anton Watson #22 Gonzaga 6’8" PF; 17 likely minutes played today. 8th best NBA prospect (77%), 2nd best shooter (65 eFG%), best 2-pt shooter (72%), 9th best defender (erases 1.73 pts/game).

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