Sunday, April 21, 2024

Dr. J Blocks Osobor's Shot Late, UMass 1971 Stuns Utah St.

Julius (Dr, J) Erving blocked Great Osobor's late shot to led UMass 1971 hold on and shock Utah State 2024 by 73-67 margin.

The two had dominated the game without guarding each other, as Osobor was one of the top 10 in the country at drawing fouls, so UMass did not want to risk Dr. J fouling out, as he had 23 points, 13 rebounds and four blocked shots, while Osobor had almost an identical 22, 12 and two. However, Osobor's ability to draw fouls did result in him drawing a 5th foul on Ken Mathias with seven possessions left and UMass leading 62-53, Erving had to move over to guard Osobor.

Mathias foul out also means UMass had to put in a player out of stamina, Chris Coffin, and this did result in a missed free throw that left the door open with a 65-57 lead. Coffin is normally a 75% foul shooter (1-15 on the 20-sided die is good), but when we rolled a "15" it was a miss because when a player is out of stamina every roll is changed one number against them, so the 15 became a miss.

Utah State played for a 3-pointer and while it is a risky strategy as you are more likely to lose 2 points with a missed shot than upgrade a 2-point shot to a 3-point shot, but in this case it worked as Isaac Johnson hit consecutive 3-pointers to cut the lead to 60-63, then Osobor drew a foul with 3 possessions left to create an extra position after his free throws cut the lead to 69-65.

The next trip Osobor got it with a chance to cut it to two, but it turned out a big break that Erving had switched to guard him as the "26" roll was in Erving's 21-26,32 block range and due to the block, the "3" on the 20-sided die that would have cut the score to 69-67 was irrelevant since the shot was blocked. The rebound was a "10" which means high on the court, and that again came down to the two dominant players as Osobor has a 1-7 offensive rebound range but Erving has a 1-9 defensive rebound range to get it (ties go to offense, so if Erving was even one lower at 1-8 then Osobor would have grabbed his own rebound with another shot.

Utah State has a rating of -10 (an estimate 10 points worst than the average GREAT team in the game) and was added this year because the last two years we have looked for colleges without a team in the game who won at least one tournament game - so the team's destruction of TCU in this year's actual March Madness put them in the tournament as the 205th best team. 

That made them an 8-point favorite against UMass 1971, who was added along with all other teams who had one of the best 75 players of all time (Dr. J was the 19th greatest ever) but was actually a very average team even with him and came in at 231st with a rating of -18. So far 7-, 8- or more point underdogs have only won 21% of Value Add Basketball Games - but UMass gets the upset.


Pos     Massachusetts 1971   Pts  3pt2pt  FTAtt   RebStlBlkFl    Act. Season     Act. Season
1-PGJohn Betancourt12044412025'9,11.0 Pts5'10, 12.6 ppg
2-SGMike Pagliara2010021015'9,7.6 Pts5'10, 10.6 ppg
3-SFTom McLaughlin10220051015'7,7.3 Pts6'4, 8.6 ppg
4-PFJulius Erving2301111131425'10,7.2 Pts#19 best, 6'7
5-CKen Mathias10034440256'2, 12.7 Pts6'7, 10.3 ppg
PosBench VisitorsPts3pt2ptFTAttRebStlBlkFlAct SeasonAct. Season
1-PGRich Vogeley5013640025'8,2.3 Pts6'4, 6.1 ppg
2-SGChris Coffin3011231115'11,2.5 Pts6'4, 5.3 ppg
3-SFCharlie Peters4020020015'9,5.3 Pts6'7, 1.6 ppg
4-PFTom Austin2010010036'2, 3.2 Pts6'9, 1.6 ppg
5-CBill Kesgen2010010016'3, 7.2 Pts1.4 ppg
 12 Turnovers732271317366719  
PosUtah St. 2024Pts3pt2ptFTAttRebStlBlkFlAct. SeasonAct. Season
1-PGDarius Brown9122222058.7 pts, 5'26'2, 12.6 ppg
2-SGIan Martinez80402510310.2 pts, 5'116'3, 13.4 ppg
3-SFMason Falslev60300220211.6 pts, 6'36'3, 11 ppg
4-PFIsaac Johnson102200600219.6 pts, 6'47'0, 6.3 ppg
5-CGreat Osobor2208611120227.5 pts, 6'46'8, 17.8 ppg
PosBench HomePts3pt2ptFTAttRebStlBlkFlAct SeasonAct. Season
1-PGKarson Templin2010010012.4 pts, 5'46'8, 2.2 ppg
2-SGJavon Jackson2010010015 pts, 5'116'3, 4.3 ppg
3-SFJosh Uduje4020010013.5 pts, 6'16'5, 8.3 ppg
4-PFMax Agbonkpolo2010010010.9 pts, 6'26'9, 5.4 ppg
5-CNigel Burris2010010016 pts, 6'36'7, 0.8 ppg
 18 Turnovers67325815325219 

With the win, UMass moves up to 219th all-time, while Utah State fell slightly behind them to 222. All scores are tracked here. The Ranking is where they currently rank among all teams in the game, while the "pre" is where they ranked to start the season based on our estimate of how well they would play against other great teams. UMann improved 12 spots from 231st to 219th with the win, while Utah State dropped 17 spots from 205th to 222nd with the loss.

Rnk   Pre   Team                        Year      Player(s)                         WinLoss     ScoreAllow
216221Murray St.2019Ja Morant0178.085.0
217219Marshall1956Hal Greer #700171.076.0
218182Butler2010Gordon Hayward0354.776.3
219231Massachusetts1971Julius Erving #191073.067.0
220209Loyola-Chicago2018Cameron Krutwig0359.375.0
221194Texas2007Kevin Durant #130162.082.0
222205Utah St.2024Great Osobor0167.073.0
223224Niagara1970Calvin Murphy0168.084.0
224206Washington St.2008Kyle Weaver0164.092.0
225225Duquesne2024Jimmy Clark00  
226214Richmond2011Justin Harper0154.077.0
227228Southern Illinois1967Walt Frazier #450173.075.0
228226Yale2024Danny Wolf00  
229229Gonzaga1981John Stockton #2500  
230227North Carolina1965Billy Cunningham #660165.080.0
231232Weber St.2010Damian Lillard #6800  
232233NYU1948Dolph Schayes #610153.074.0
233235Oakland2024Jack Gohlke00  
234234St. Peter's2022Doug Edert0139.077.0
235230Princeton2023Tosan Evbuomwan0150.0102.0

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