Dr. J Blocks Osobor's Shot Late, UMass 1971 Stuns Utah St.

Julius (Dr, J) Erving blocked Great Osobor's late shot to led UMass 1971 hold on and shock Utah State 2024 by 73-67 margin.

The two had dominated the game without guarding each other, as Osobor was one of the top 10 in the country at drawing fouls, so UMass did not want to risk Dr. J fouling out, as he had 23 points, 13 rebounds and four blocked shots, while Osobor had almost an identical 22, 12 and two. However, Osobor's ability to draw fouls did result in him drawing a 5th foul on Ken Mathias with seven possessions left and UMass leading 62-53, Erving had to move over to guard Osobor.

Mathias foul out also means UMass had to put in a player out of stamina, Chris Coffin, and this did result in a missed free throw that left the door open with a 65-57 lead. Coffin is normally a 75% foul shooter (1-15 on the 20-sided die is good), but when we rolled a "15" it was a miss because when a player is out of stamina every roll is changed one number against them, so the 15 became a miss.

Utah State played for a 3-pointer and while it is a risky strategy as you are more likely to lose 2 points with a missed shot than upgrade a 2-point shot to a 3-point shot, but in this case it worked as Isaac Johnson hit consecutive 3-pointers to cut the lead to 60-63, then Osobor drew a foul with 3 possessions left to create an extra position after his free throws cut the lead to 69-65.

The next trip Osobor got it with a chance to cut it to two, but it turned out a big break that Erving had switched to guard him as the "26" roll was in Erving's 21-26,32 block range and due to the block, the "3" on the 20-sided die that would have cut the score to 69-67 was irrelevant since the shot was blocked. The rebound was a "10" which means high on the court, and that again came down to the two dominant players as Osobor has a 1-7 offensive rebound range but Erving has a 1-9 defensive rebound range to get it (ties go to offense, so if Erving was even one lower at 1-8 then Osobor would have grabbed his own rebound with another shot.

Utah State has a rating of -10 (an estimate 10 points worst than the average GREAT team in the game) and was added this year because the last two years we have looked for colleges without a team in the game who won at least one tournament game - so the team's destruction of TCU in this year's actual March Madness put them in the tournament as the 205th best team. 

That made them an 8-point favorite against UMass 1971, who was added along with all other teams who had one of the best 75 players of all time (Dr. J was the 19th greatest ever) but was actually a very average team even with him and came in at 231st with a rating of -18. So far 7-, 8- or more point underdogs have only won 21% of Value Add Basketball Games - but UMass gets the upset.

 

Pos	Massachusetts 1971	Pts	3pt	2pt	FT	Att	Reb	Stl	Blk	Fl	Act. Season	Act. Season
1-PG	John Betancourt	12	0	4	4	4	1	2	0	2	5'9,11.0 Pts	5'10, 12.6 ppg
2-SG	Mike Pagliara	2	0	1	0	0	2	1	0	1	5'9,7.6 Pts	5'10, 10.6 ppg
3-SF	Tom McLaughlin	10	2	2	0	0	5	1	0	1	5'7,7.3 Pts	6'4, 8.6 ppg
4-PF	Julius Erving	23	0	11	1	1	13	1	4	2	5'10,7.2 Pts	#19 best, 6'7
5-C	Ken Mathias	10	0	3	4	4	4	0	2	5	6'2, 12.7 Pts	6'7, 10.3 ppg
Pos	Bench Visitors	Pts	3pt	2pt	FT	Att	Reb	Stl	Blk	Fl	Act Season	Act. Season
1-PG	Rich Vogeley	5	0	1	3	6	4	0	0	2	5'8,2.3 Pts	6'4, 6.1 ppg
2-SG	Chris Coffin	3	0	1	1	2	3	1	1	1	5'11,2.5 Pts	6'4, 5.3 ppg
3-SF	Charlie Peters	4	0	2	0	0	2	0	0	1	5'9,5.3 Pts	6'7, 1.6 ppg
4-PF	Tom Austin	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	3	6'2, 3.2 Pts	6'9, 1.6 ppg
5-C	Bill Kesgen	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	6'3, 7.2 Pts	1.4 ppg
	12 Turnovers	73	2	27	13	17	36	6	7	19
Pos	Utah St. 2024	Pts	3pt	2pt	FT	Att	Reb	Stl	Blk	Fl	Act. Season	Act. Season
1-PG	Darius Brown	9	1	2	2	2	2	2	0	5	8.7 pts, 5'2	6'2, 12.6 ppg
2-SG	Ian Martinez	8	0	4	0	2	5	1	0	3	10.2 pts, 5'11	6'3, 13.4 ppg
3-SF	Mason Falslev	6	0	3	0	0	2	2	0	2	11.6 pts, 6'3	6'3, 11 ppg
4-PF	Isaac Johnson	10	2	2	0	0	6	0	0	2	19.6 pts, 6'4	7'0, 6.3 ppg
5-C	Great Osobor	22	0	8	6	11	12	0	2	2	7.5 pts, 6'4	6'8, 17.8 ppg
Pos	Bench Home	Pts	3pt	2pt	FT	Att	Reb	Stl	Blk	Fl	Act Season	Act. Season
1-PG	Karson Templin	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	2.4 pts, 5'4	6'8, 2.2 ppg
2-SG	Javon Jackson	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	5 pts, 5'11	6'3, 4.3 ppg
3-SF	Josh Uduje	4	0	2	0	0	1	0	0	1	3.5 pts, 6'1	6'5, 8.3 ppg
4-PF	Max Agbonkpolo	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.9 pts, 6'2	6'9, 5.4 ppg
5-C	Nigel Burris	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	6 pts, 6'3	6'7, 0.8 ppg
	18 Turnovers	67	3	25	8	15	32	5	2	19

With the win, UMass moves up to 219th all-time, while Utah State fell slightly behind them to 222. All scores are tracked here. The Ranking is where they currently rank among all teams in the game, while the "pre" is where they ranked to start the season based on our estimate of how well they would play against other great teams. UMann improved 12 spots from 231st to 219th with the win, while Utah State dropped 17 spots from 205th to 222nd with the loss.

Rnk	Pre	Team	Year	Player(s)	Win	Loss	Score	Allow
216	221	Murray St.	2019	Ja Morant	0	1	78.0	85.0
217	219	Marshall	1956	Hal Greer #70	0	1	71.0	76.0
218	182	Butler	2010	Gordon Hayward	0	3	54.7	76.3
219	231	Massachusetts	1971	Julius Erving #19	1	0	73.0	67.0
220	209	Loyola-Chicago	2018	Cameron Krutwig	0	3	59.3	75.0
221	194	Texas	2007	Kevin Durant #13	0	1	62.0	82.0
222	205	Utah St.	2024	Great Osobor	0	1	67.0	73.0
223	224	Niagara	1970	Calvin Murphy	0	1	68.0	84.0
224	206	Washington St.	2008	Kyle Weaver	0	1	64.0	92.0
225	225	Duquesne	2024	Jimmy Clark	0	0
226	214	Richmond	2011	Justin Harper	0	1	54.0	77.0
227	228	Southern Illinois	1967	Walt Frazier #45	0	1	73.0	75.0
228	226	Yale	2024	Danny Wolf	0	0
229	229	Gonzaga	1981	John Stockton #25	0	0
230	227	North Carolina	1965	Billy Cunningham #66	0	1	65.0	80.0
231	232	Weber St.	2010	Damian Lillard #68	0	0
232	233	NYU	1948	Dolph Schayes #61	0	1	53.0	74.0
233	235	Oakland	2024	Jack Gohlke	0	0
234	234	St. Peter's	2022	Doug Edert	0	1	39.0	77.0
235	230	Princeton	2023	Tosan Evbuomwan	0	1	50.0	102.0