Tuesday, January 30, 2024

Line-ups for Late Night All-Time UCLA at UNC

Finally tipping off UCLA at UNC at 2:30 am on the East Coast - guess UCLA will have the edge since it will only feel like 11:30 pm back in Los Angeles. Mean to start at a reasonable hour, but was swamped testify in a legislative committee and work up our post. Yes, sometimes I wish the thousands of you who click on these blogs were matched by thousands each day likewise looking at my day jobs work on policy - but this is more fun. Did get done with work in time to watch replay of my Marquette playing Villanova on replay.

Back to the game, here is the line-up for the second of three games.
UCLA                           Yr     Dunk          Ball     Pos     UNC                      Yr        Dunk   Ball
Russell Westbrook200851-62 Stop11-PGMichael Jordan198251-521&6
Reggie Miller198751-56 Stop22-SGJames Worthy198251 Stop2&7
Kevin Love200851-5333-SFVince Carter199851-563
Bill Walton197251-634&64-PFBilly Cunningham196551 Stop4
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar196751-565,7&85-CBob McAdoo197251-53 Stop5&8
     Sean May200551-515

The first thing in the setup is all the "Stop" notes by positions that you did not see in the Duke at UCLA game. Michael Jordan and James Worthy only averaged 13 and 15 points per game in their championship game - they just never let anyone else score with incredible -12 Dunk Adj range. That takes most people dunk range below a 51-51 dunk range and into the negatives, which on the table in the Value Add Game creates instead a defensive stop range, which means an automatic missed shot and defensive rebound to the player on defense. 

With Jordan and Worthy giving Westbrook and Miller such big stop ranges, UCLA will definitely hope to get the ball to the twin towers most of the time - in fact they should get it there more than half the time with only 1-, 2- or 3- going to the other three players while Walton will get it on a 4&6 and Kareem on a 5, 7 or 8. 

Vince Carter has the best offensive match-up for UNC with a 51-56 dunk range, but he actually can only have the ball on one number based on his card not having a second number. Therefore UNC will use their extra numbers to try to get the ball to Jordan or Worthy, or down low to McAdoo.

With that we are about to cast our first roll, so will report the play by play when it is over.

If UCLA wins at UNC after winning with a little home cooking against Duke, then they win our round robin 2 games to 0 with UNC's trip to Duke being for second place.

If UNC wins, then they can wrap it up by also winning at Duke.

If UNC beats UCLA but then loses at Duke, then all three teams finish 1-1. In that case the best scoring margin for the two games is the champion, and if that is a tie then we go with fewest points allowed. If that is also tied then we just have a shared title.

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