Bracket Created Factoring for Injuries

This blog will feature a bracket adjusted based on which teams in the tournament have an injury or injuries that cost them at least one Win Share - the estimated number of Wins a given player created for his team. The players on this list are not necessarily out for the tournament, but each player has been injured to could be less than100% due to an injury, or out, or be back to 100%.

Cooper Flagg of Duke has the highest Win Share rating of anyone in the country at 7.3 wins, and combined with his teammate Maliq Brown being out Duke has 9.1 Win Shares at stake to make them vulnerable as the No. 1 team. Texas Tech is at almost he same risk, with Darrion Williams and Chance McMillian combining to be as valuable as Flagg and Brown combined. The first WS number is the total for the team's injured player or players, while the other figures are for each player.

Two-thirds of teams have no player injured who is worth at least 1.0 Win Share.

Check back for this and other brackets.

 

School, Rank, Record               WS		Injured	WS1	Injured 2	WS2
1 Duke (30-3)	9.1	Cooper Flagg	7.3	Maliq Brown	1.8
7 Texas Tech (25-8)	8.9	Darrion Williams	4.1	Chance McMillian	4.8
10 Iowa St. (24-9)	7.1	Keshon Gilbert	3.0	Tamin Lipsey	4.1
40 Arkansas (20-13)	6.1	Adou Thiero	3.8	Boogie Fland	2.3
250 Mount St. Mary's (22-12)	5.2	Terrell Ard Jr.	2.1	Carmelo Pacheco	3.1
16 Kentucky (22-11)	4.3	Lamont Butler	2.3	Jaxson Robinson	2.0
2 Houston (29-4)	3.9	J'Wan Roberts	3.9
29 Baylor (19-14)	3.8	Josh Ojianwuna	2.6	Langston Love	1.2
23 Louisville (27-6)	3.6	Reyne Smith	3.6
15 Missouri (22-11)	3.6	Mark Mitchell	3.6
52 Memphis (28-5)	3.4	Tyrese Hunter	3.4
6 Alabama (25-7)	3.1	Grant Nelson	3.1
53 West Virginia (19-13)	2.4	Tucker DeVries	1.2	Tucker DeVries	1.2
18 Clemson (27-6)	2.2	Dillon Hunter	2.2
46 San Diego St. (21-9)	2.2	Magoon Gwath	2.2
37 Oklahoma (20-13)	2.0	Sam Godwin	2.0
83 Lipscomb (25-9)	1.8	Dylan Faulkner	1.8
24 BYU (24-9)	1.5	Kanon Catchings	1.5
98 Troy (23-10)	1.5	Jerrell Bellamy	1.5
4 Florida (28-4)	1.0	Sam Alexis	1.0
26 Michigan (24-9)	1.0	Sam Walters	1.0
25 Mississippi (22-11)	1.0	Mikeal Brown-Jones	1.0
50 Vanderbilt (20-12)	1.0	Grant Huffman	1.0

Links to Screenshots of Projected Brackets

 Monday night we are posting the brackets based on six factors. There will be eight blogs for you to choose from as guides for your picks. We you see a live link it means the bracket has been posted.

Bracket I - KenPom Minus Injured Players - UConn beats Alabama for Title

Bracket II - KenPom Plus Coaches Past Tournament Runs - Kansas beats Virginia for Title

Bracket III - KenPom Plus NBA Talent on Team - Houston beats Alabama for Title

Bracket IV - KenPom Plus Hottest Teams - UConn beats Alabama for Title

Bracket V - KenPom Plus Turnover Margins - Houston beats Marquette for Title

Bracket VI - KenPom Plus Point Guard Play - Houston beats Marquette for Title

Bracket VII - KenPom Plus Location of Game - Texas beats Purdue for Title

Bracket VIII - KenPom Plus Experience - Xavier beats Memphis for Title

Also a box summarizing each player's strengths can be found by clicking the Bracket in which their team is playing - East, South, Midwest or West - at and the bottom of each team box we list the same numbers as listed below for how many wins the model has them winning under each model.

This model is meant to compare which type of teams win each year - and in recent years the "Experience model" has been the least effective, while point guards and KenPom minus injuries have generally been near the top.

One alternative to pulling up the image of each completed bracket is to review the table below, pick the bracket you want to reference, and type in the name of each team on the number of lines indicated. The better seed in each opening round game is listed first, and either bolded or in a font color. 

If you wanted to use this system, you would start with Alabama and if you wanted to start with the first bracket - based on injuries - then you would list Alabama on five lines meaning they would make it to the title game but lose. However, if you used the coaches bracket then they would fall to West Virginia in the second round due o Coach Bob Huggins longer history of deep runs in the NCAA. 

Team	Seed	Inj	Coach	Ven	NBA	Exp	PG	TO	Hot
Alabama	S1	5	1	4	5	3	4	1	5
Southeast Missouri St.	S16	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	S16	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Maryland	S8	1	0	0	0	1	1	2	0
West Virginia	S9	0	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
San Diego St.	S5	1	1	1	1	1	0	1	2
Charleston	S12	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0
Virginia	S4	2	5	2	2	2	2	3	1
Furman	S13	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Creighton	S6	2	3	1	1	4	3	0	1
N.C. State	S11	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Baylor	S3	1	1	2	2	1	1	2	2
UC Santa Barbara	S14	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Missouri	S7	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	0
Utah St.	S10	1	1	1	1	2	2	0	1
Arizona	S2	3	2	3	3	1	1	1	3
Princeton	S15	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Purdue	E1	4	4	5	3	1	2	2	3
Fairleigh Dickinson	E16	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Texas Southern	E16	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Memphis	E8	0	1	1	1	5	1	1	1
Florida Atlantic	E9	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Duke	E5	2	1	1	2	0	1	0	2
Oral Roberts	E12	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0
Tennessee	E4	1	2	2	1	2	3	3	1
Louisiana	E13	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Kentucky	E6	2	2	3	4	0	2	2	2
Providence	E11	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
Kansas St.	E3	1	1	1	1	3	1	1	1
Montana St.	E14	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Michigan St.	E7	1	1	2	1	2	0	0	1
USC	E10	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0
Marquette	E2	3	3	1	2	1	5	5	4
Vermont	E15	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Houston	MW1	3	4	1	6	3	6	6	4
Northern Kentucky	MW16	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Iowa	MW8	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Auburn	MW9	1	1	2	1	1	1	0	1
Miami FL	MW5	2	2	1	1	2	1	1	0
Drake	MW12	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
Indiana	MW4	0	1	4	2	1	2	0	2
Kent St.	MW13	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0
Iowa St.	MW6	2	0	1	1	1	1	2	1
Mississippi St.	MW11	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Pittsburgh	MW11	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Xavier	MW3	1	2	2	2	6	2	1	3
Kennesaw St.	MW14	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Texas A&M	MW7	1	3	1	1	0	1	1	1
Penn St.	MW10	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
Texas	MW2	4	1	6	3	2	3	3	2
Colgate	MW15	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Kansas	W1	2	6	3	1	1	1	4	2
Howard	W16	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Arkansas	W8	1	1	0	2	0	3	1	1
Illinois	W9	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	0
Saint Mary's	W5	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
VCU	W12	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	1
Connecticut	W4	6	2	2	3	2	1	0	6
Iona	W13	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0
TCU	W6	1	1	1	1	1	1	3	1
Arizona St.	W11	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Nevada	W11	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Gonzaga	W3	3	2	2	2	4	4	1	2
Grand Canyon	W14	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Northwestern	W7	0	1	0	1	0	1	0	1
Boise St.	W10	2	0	1	0	1	0	1	0
UCLA	W2	1	3	3	4	2	2	2	3
UNC Asheville	W15	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

CBS 247 Post Breaking Down the Brackets

 https://247sports.com/college/marquette/Article/Pudner-Assesses-MUs-momentum-into-the-NCAA-Tournament-184374185/

My phone has been blowing up asking if I will be emailing and posting brackets tonight, which I will. In this CBS/247 piece I break down the rankings of all tournament teams based on how healthy and good the team is they are putting on the court, coaches, experienced guards, proven ability to win tough games away from home and NBA-caliber players on their team. If you want an email breakdown just send me one at johnp@takebackaction.org or watch for posts.

SMU has lost and if Texas A&M doesn't rally from double digits down then both will wait nervously to see if they are picked for the tournament tonight.

March Madness 8 - Final and Most Important, the Best Teams Being Put on the Court

While we've broken down seven factors that can give a team a chance for an upset in March Madness, we finish with by far the most important factor - who is the best team on the court in each game?

The best team doesn't always win, but they win two-thirds of the team.

If course the first place people should go as a starting point is www.kenpom.com, who revolutionized analytics. However, I do suggest people also go to www.valueaddbasketball.com for one reason - it breaks the ratings down to each player on a team so that you know how much an injured player will hurt them or who much better their rating would be with a player who has returned.

The following rankings for all teams who will (or in a few cases might) make the tournament are based on the following:

1. VA5 indicates the sum of the player rankings at www.valueaddbasketball.com - which is similar to www.kenpom.com but represent more than a point (e.g. Gonzaga is a 51.97 here and a 32.97) mainly because our math indicates players on good teams would be even more valuable if the could play more.

2. Then the big difference is the "healthy" column. If that number is 0 then there is no adjustment because there have been no major injuries. However, if that number is a positive number then it is added to the first number because it indicates the team's ranking is actually higher when a player who misses some games is back. However, a negative number means the team is missing a key player or players so is actually not as good as their www.kenpom.com or raw www.valueaddkbasketball.com ranking would indicate.

The two really tough variables are from the Big Ten. Both Illinois and Ohio State have key players that might or might not be ready to play in the tournament, so look at the notes on them in particular and move them up or down several spots based on monitoring those key injuries at this site.

The following are the most important numbers if you only read one of these blogs.

Rnk	Team	VA 5	Healthy?	Team on Court	Notes on injuries, or players who were out
1	Gonzaga	51.97	0	51.97
2	UCLA	47.33	2.51	49.84	Despite their loss to Arizona in the Pac-12 title game, the fact that Jaylen Clark, Cody Riley and Johnny Juzang all appear to be healthy pushes them to the No. 2 team on the court.
3	Arizona	46.94	0	46.94
4	Texas Tech	43	2.22	45.22	With Kevin McCullar and Terrence Shannon back, Texas Tech is loaded again.
5	Houston	46.18	-1.3	44.88	The drop of Houston assumes Marcus Sasser is not coming back.
6	Kentucky	44.56	0	44.56
7	Kansas	43.21	0	43.21
8	Villanova	42.99	0	42.99
9	Duke	42.91	0	42.91
10	Tennessee	43.51	-1.32	42.19	As great as they have been, they are hurt by Olivier Nkamhoua being out.
11	Purdue	41.33	0	41.33
12	Auburn	40.95	0	40.95
13	Iowa	40.34	0	40.34
14	Connecticut	38.05	0.76	38.81
15	Loyola Chicago	37.65	0.95	38.6
16	Baylor	44.85	-6.69	38.16	The defending champs are the most hurt, with both Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua and LJ Cryer out.
17	Saint Mary's	38.01	0	38.01
18	Illinois	38.82	-1.3	37.52	if Jacob Grandison's shoulder is ok and he plays, this improves by 2.3, if not drop it by 2.3 - so one of two big question marks.
19	Arkansas	36.64	0	36.64
20	San Francisco	36.62	0	36.62
21	Alabama	36.49	0	36.49
22	San Diego St.	36.36	0	36.36
23	Michigan	35.84	0	35.84
24	Texas	37.31	-1.68	35.63	This drop assumes Tre Mitchell does not return - if he does they go back up to a 37.31.
25	LSU	35.53	0	35.53
26	Murray St.	35.42	0	35.42
27	North Carolina	36.43	-1.03	35.4	No word on Dawson Garcia, so assuming he is out for the season.
28	Memphis	32.86	1.84	34.7	As disappointing as Memphis has been with all that talent, if they win the American tomorrow with Jalen Duren and DeAndre Williams playing, they could be a scary first round game.
29	Davidson	32.55	0.91	33.46
30	Oklahoma	33.44	0	33.44
31	Wisconsin	33.29	0	33.29
32	Virginia Tech	33.29	0	33.29
33	Boise St.	33.05	0	33.05
34	Wake Forest	31.97	0.67	32.64
35	Colorado St.	32.47	0	32.47
36	Michigan St.	32.38	0	32.38
37	TCU	32.02	0	32.02
38	Vermont	30.89	0.75	31.64
39	Iowa St.	31.31	0	31.31
40	Xavier	31.22	0	31.22
41	Marquette	30.74	0	30.74
42	Indiana	30.69	0	30.69
43	USC	30.64	0	30.64
44	BYU	30.42	0	30.42
45	Providence	29.63	0.67	30.3
46	Seton Hall	32.18	-2.3	29.88	Bryce Aiken's concussion has kept him out for a while, one of the biggest injuries and they would shoot up several spots if he returned.
47	SMU	29.75	0	29.75
48	UAB	30.78	-1.21	29.57
49	Miami FL	29.35	0	29.35
50	Wyoming	29.12	0	29.12
51	Ohio St.	33.15	-4.1	29.05	Key is if Kyle Young and Zed Key are back. If not -8.2 instead of -4.1, but if back take the -4.1 away. They would move all the way up to 33rd if both are back, but drop to 60th if not - so I split the difference here.
52	Richmond	28.82	0	28.82
53	Creighton	29.85	-1.43	28.42	All know Ryan Nembhard's injury hurts, but if Trey Alexander keeps playing well in his place, the inside outside with Ryan Kalkbrenner - who now ranks on the verge of All-American as the 17th best player in the country - can still make them lethal.
54	Chattanooga	27.48	0.75	28.23	Gillespie's only competition for 1st team All-American PG is this Malachi Smith (there is another one at Dayton), and with Silvio De Sousa back they are stronger.
55	Texas A&M	28.17	0	28.17
56	Notre Dame	28.15	0	28.15
57	South Dakota St.	28	0	28
58	Rutgers	27.1	0	27.1
59	New Mexico St.	25.49	0	25.49
60	Princeton	24.08	0	24.08
61	Long Beach St.	22.46	0	22.46
62	Georgia St.	19.79	1.4	21.19	They will be a big underdog, but with one of their two players in the top 10% of all players, Eliel Nsoseme, back they will be a stronger challenge.
63	Montana St.	20.54	0	20.54
64	Saint Peter's	20.26	0	20.26
65	Colgate	19.5	0	19.5
66	Jacksonville St.	18.73	0	18.73
67	Norfolk St.	18.5	0	18.5
68	Bryant	17.1	0.72	17.82	Bryant would have ranked higher if Hall Elisias didn't miss games, but he is back now.
69	Longwood	17.78	0	17.78
70	Yale	17.44	0	17.44
71	Delaware	17.32	0	17.32
72	Cal St. Fullerton	17.21	0	17.21
73	Akron	16.96	0	16.96
74	Wright St.	15.83	0	15.83
75	Texas Southern	10.97	0	10.97
76	Southeastern Louisiana	10.8	0	10.8

March Madness 3: The 151 Players Picked as All-Conference Defense

Lock-down defense can win tournament games against nervous college players. Fewer than 1 of 25 college players have been selected as all-conference defenders, and those players can win on the defensive end of the court. 

The following lists the 151 players of 4,363 in the www.valueaddbasketball.com database.  The very best defensive player, a player selected as the Defensive Player of the Year in one of the six top conferences, are listed first and erase close to 5 points per game from the opponent. In decending order of impact we list the top defenders with a little less credit the weaker the conference, or for winning all-conference defender to be one of the top five defenders but not the top one, or for players who won the award in 2021 but did not repeat this year. Keep in mind some of the 2021 players won the award in a different conference than they play in today.

In addition to the player's name, team and conference, we list DPOY for the player selected top defender and then All-Def if picked as one of the top five. The next column includes the percent of the time the player steals the ball when the other team has it, and the percent of the time he blocks the shot when the opponent tries a 2-pointers, then finally the estimated overall impact he has on taking points away from the other team.

 

All Defense Player	Team	Conf	Award	Stl%^Blk%	Def Alt
Mark Williams	Duke	ACC	DPOY-2022	1.1^11.9	-5
Caleb McConnell	Rutgers	B10	DPOY-2022	4.6^1.9	-5
Gabe Osabuohien	West Virginia	B12	DPOY-2022	3.9^3.7	-5
Ryan Kalkbrenner	Creighton	BE	DPOY-2022	0.9^8.8	-5
Christian Koloko	Arizona	P12	DPOY-2022	1.6^10.3	-5
Walker Kessler	Auburn	SEC	DPOY-2022	2.5^18.9	-5
Lucas Williamson	Loyola Chicago	MVC	DPOY-2022	2.5^1.1	-4
Jaylen Clark	UCLA	P12	All-Def-2022	3.7^1	-4
Tyger Campbell	UCLA	P12	All-Def-2022	2.1^0.4	-4
Dalen Terry	Arizona	P12	All-Def-2022	2.5^1.1	-4
Keon Ellis	Alabama	SEC	All-Def-2022	3.5^2	-4
Oscar Tshiebwe	Kentucky	SEC	All-Def-2022	3.3^5.3	-4
Zakai Zeigler	Tennessee	SEC	All-Def-2022	4.8^0.6	-4
Jaylin Williams	Arkansas	SEC	All-Def-2022	2.4^4.6	-4
Myles Johnson	UCLA	P12	All-Def-2022	1.9^8.3	-3.8
Osun Osunniyi	St. Bonaventure	A10	DPOY-2022	1.1^12.3	-3.7
Trent Frazier	Illinois	B10	All-Def-2022	2.2^0.4	-3.5
Enrique Freeman	Akron	MAC	DPOY-2022	0.9^4.8	-3.5
Darryl Morsell	Marquette	BE	DPOY-2021	2.3^1.5	-3.2
Isaiah Whaley	Connecticut	BE	DPOY-2021	1.7^8	-3.2
DaRon Holmes	Dayton	A10	All-Def-2022	0.9^9	-3
Chuba Ohams	Fordham	A10	All-Def-2022	1.3^5.6	-3
Yuri Collins	Saint Louis	A10	All-Def-2022	3.3^0.5	-3
Kevin Samuel	Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	DPOY-2022	2^10.5	-3
Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua	Baylor	B12	All-Def-2022	1.9^1.9	-3
Dajuan Harris	Kansas	B12	All-Def-2022	2.9^1.1	-3
Markquis Nowell	Kansas St.	B12	All-Def-2022	4.3^0.1	-3
Moussa Cisse	Oklahoma St.	B12	All-Def-2022	1.2^11.1	-3
Jubrile Belo	Montana St.	BSky	DPOY-2022	1^7.8	-3
Jamarion Sharp	Western Kentucky	CUSA	DPOY-2022	1.5^17.8	-3
Aher Uguak	Loyola Chicago	MVC	All-Def-2022	1.3^1.2	-3
Nathan Mensah	San Diego St.	MWC	DPOY-2022	2.1^10.7	-3
Posh Alexander	St. John's	BE	DPOY-2021	3.9^0.6	-2.9
Jamari Wheeler	Ohio St.	B10	All-Def-2021	2.7^0.2	-2.5
Josh Mballa	Buffalo	MAC	All-Def-2022	2.1^2.8	-2.5
Daeqwon Plowden	Bowling Green	MAC	All-Def-2022	1.7^4.4	-2.5
Malique Jacobs	Kent St.	MAC	All-Def-2022	2.5^3.1	-2.5
Sincere Carry	Kent St.	MAC	All-Def-2022	2.3^0.7	-2.5
Jaime Jaquez	UCLA	P12	All-Def-2021	2.3^1.2	-2.5
Abdul Ado	Cincinnati	Amer	All-Def-2021	3.1^8.7	-2.4
Jacob Gilyard	Richmond	A10	All-Def-2022	4.8^0.5	-2.3
Jordan Goldwire	Oklahoma	B12	All-Def-2021	3^0.8	-2.3
Hason Ward	VCU	A10	All-Def-2021	2.6^8.5	-2
Jamel Horton	Albany	AE	DPOY-2022	2^1.1	-2
Dexter Dennis	Wichita St.	Amer	All-Def-2022	1.7^3.2	-2
Drew Pember	UNC Asheville	BSth	DPOY-2022	1.6^10	-2
Jadon Jones	Long Beach St.	BW	DPOY-2022	2.9^3.3	-2
Amari Williams	Drexel	CAA	DPOY-2022	1.8^9.8	-2
Trey Jemison	UAB	CUSA	All-Def-2021	1.1^7.2	-2
Josh Anderson	Western Kentucky	CUSA	All-Def-2021	4.4^1.5	-2
Cobe Williams	Louisiana Tech	CUSA	All-Def-2022	2.4^0.4	-2
JJ Murray	North Texas	CUSA	All-Def-2022	3.6^0.5	-2
Thomas Bell	North Texas	CUSA	All-Def-2022	1.8^3.5	-2
Quan Jackson	UAB	CUSA	All-Def-2022	4.9^1.6	-2
Tre Gomillion	Cleveland St.	Horz	DPOY-2022	2.4^1.2	-2
DJ Wilkins	Drake	MVC	All-Def-2022	1.9^0	-2
Donovan Clay	Missouri St.	MVC	All-Def-2022	1.2^3.5	-2
Lance Jones	Southern Illinois	MVC	All-Def-2022	4.1^0.4	-2
Abu Kigab	Boise St.	MWC	All-Def-2022	2.6^1.7	-2
Orlando Robinson	Fresno St.	MWC	All-Def-2022	1.8^5.1	-2
Lamont Butler	San Diego St.	MWC	All-Def-2022	4.4^0.8	-2
Justin Bean	Utah St.	MWC	All-Def-2022	2.8^1.7	-2
Alex Morales	Wagner	NEC	DPOY-2022	2.9^1.6	-2
Marco Anthony	Utah	P12	All-Def-2021	1.3^1.6	-2
Josh Caldwell	Army	Pat	DPOY-2022	4^0.5	-2
Norchad Omier	Arkansas St.	SB	DPOY-2022	3^6.1	-2
Jayveous McKinnis	Jackson St.	SWAC	DPOY-2022	2.1^9.7	-2
Taran Armstrong	Cal Baptist	WAC	DPOY-2022	1.3^0.8	-2
Tre Williams	Duquesne	A10	All-Def-2021	1.1^6.7	-1.6
ShanQuan Hemphill	Drake	MVC	All-Def-2021	2^2	-1.6
Tyson Walker	Michigan St.	B10	DPOY-2021	2.5^0.7	-1.5
Gaige Prim	Missouri St.	MVC	All-Def-2021	1.8^4.7	-1.5
Nana Opoku	Mount St. Mary's	NEC	DPOY-2021	1.6^5.8	-1.5
AJ Wilson	South Carolina	SEC	All-Def-2021	2.2^7	-1.5
Brandon McKissic	Florida	SEC	DPOY-2021	2.8^0.4	-1.5
Mouhamadou Gueye	Pittsburgh	ACC	DPOY-2021	1.3^9.2	-1.4
Grayson Murphy	Belmont	OVC	DPOY-2021	4.5^1.2	-1.4
Kim Aiken	Arizona	P12	DPOY-2021	4^2	-1.4
Cheikh Mbacke Diong	UCF	Amer	All-Def-2021	1.5^7.2	-1.3
Theo Akwuba	Louisiana	SB	DPOY-2021	1.1^8.4	-1.3
Traci Carter	Hartford	AE	All-Def-2022	3.3^1.7	-1.2
David Muoka	UNLV	MWC	DPOY-2021	1.4^8.8	-1.2
Coryon Mason	Abilene Christian	WAC	All-Def-2021	2.2^0.7	-1.2
Damien Daniels	Abilene Christian	WAC	All-Def-2021	4.5^0	-1.2
Reggie Miller	Abilene Christian	WAC	All-Def-2021	3.5^0.5	-1.2
Phlandrous Fleming	Florida	SEC	DPOY-2021	3.2^2.6	-1.1
Wendell Moore	Duke	ACC	All-Def-2022	2.5^0.5	-1
Charlie Moore	Miami FL	ACC	All-Def-2022	3.5^0.7	-1
Leaky Black	North Carolina	ACC	All-Def-2022	1.7^2.4	-1
Reece Beekman	Virginia	ACC	All-Def-2022	4^2.8	-1
Max Brooks	UMass Lowell	AE	All-Def-2022	2.1^10.7	-1
Ben Shungu	Vermont	AE	All-Def-2022	2.5^1	-1
Christian Hinckson	Binghamton	AE	All-Def-2022	1.9^4	-1
Trayce Jackson-Davis	Indiana	B10	All-Def-2022	1.2^8.8	-1
EJ Liddell	Ohio St.	B10	All-Def-2022	0.9^8.4	-1
Eric Hunter	Purdue	B10	All-Def-2022	1.5^0.1	-1
Charles Thompson	Towson	CAA	All-Def-2022	1.4^7.3	-1
Dimitrius Underwood	Charleston	CAA	All-Def-2022	4.3^0.1	-1
Cam Holden	Towson	CAA	All-Def-2022	3.5^0.7	-1
Shykeim Phillips	UNC Wilmington	CAA	All-Def-2022	4.1^1.8	-1
Tim Finke	Wright St.	Horz	All-Def-2021	1.3^1.1	-1
Deante Johnson	Cleveland St.	Horz	All-Def-2022	1.1^5.5	-1
D'Moi Hodge	Cleveland St.	Horz	All-Def-2022	4.6^3	-1
Micah Parrish	Oakland	Horz	All-Def-2022	2.7^0.7	-1
Jalon Pipkins	Purdue Fort Wayne	Horz	All-Def-2022	2.9^1	-1
Jaylan Gainey	Brown	Ivy	All-Def-2022	0.4^10.7	-1
KC Ndefo	Saint Peter's	MAAC	All-Def-2022	3^12.1	-1
Nendah Tarke	Coppin St.	MEAC	All-Def-2022	4.7^0.9	-1
Randall Brumant	Howard	MEAC	All-Def-2022	1.3^6	-1
Nathaniel Pollard	Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	All-Def-2022	3.3^4.3	-1
Kris Bankston	Norfolk St.	MEAC	All-Def-2022	2^5.2	-1
Chris Sodom	Delaware St.	MEAC	DPOY-2022	0.8^12.5	-1
Johni Broome	Morehead St.	OVC	DPOY-2022	1.6^13.4	-1
Sukhmail Mathon	Boston University	Pat	All-Def-2022	1.3^2.5	-1
Richard Njoku	Navy	Pat	All-Def-2022	1^5.2	-1
Tucker Richardson	Colgate	Pat	All-Def-2022	2.4^0.8	-1
Greg Summers	Navy	Pat	All-Def-2022	2.3^2.7	-1
Jalen Slawson	Furman	SC	All-Def-2022	3.3^6.5	-1
Darius Lee	Houston Baptist	Slnd	All-Def-2022	4.4^0.8	-1
Ryghe Lyons	Nicholls St.	Slnd	All-Def-2022	1.1^8.5	-1
Kendal Coleman	Northwestern St.	Slnd	All-Def-2022	1.8^4.6	-1
Jalyn Hinton	Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	All-Def-2022	1.8^7.1	-1
Terrion Murdix	Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	All-Def-2022	4.7^0.2	-1
Marvin Nesbitt	UMKC	Sum	All-Def-2021	2.7^3.2	-1
Tyree Eady	North Dakota St.	Sum	All-Def-2022	1.8^1.1	-1
Boogie Anderson	South Dakota	Sum	All-Def-2022	1.2^0.2	-1
Douglas Wilson	South Dakota St.	Sum	All-Def-2022	1.9^2.4	-1
Colton Sandage	Western Illinois	Sum	All-Def-2022	2.2^1.1	-1
Johnny McCants	New Mexico St.	WAC	All-Def-2022	1.7^8.4	-1
Javion May	Sam Houston St.	WAC	All-Def-2022	3.5^0.9	-1
Darrion Trammell	Seattle	WAC	All-Def-2022	4.3^0.5	-1
Shamir Bogues	Tarleton St.	WAC	All-Def-2022	3.8^2.6	-1
Fardaws Aimaq	Utah Valley	WAC	All-Def-2022	1.1^4	-1
Chet Holmgren	Gonzaga	WCC	All-Def-2022	1.7^12.6	-1
Jarrod West	Louisville	ACC	All-Def-2021	2.9^0	-0.8
Darnell Rogers	UMBC	AE	All-Def-2021	2^0.1	-0.8
Lunden McDay	Ohio	MAC	All-Def-2021	1.2^0	-0.8
MJ Randolph	Florida A&M	SWAC	All-Def-2021	2.9^0.4	-0.8
Luke Loewe	Minnesota	B10	All-Def-2021	1^0.1	-0.7
Kameron Langley	North Carolina A&T	BSth	All-Def-2021	3.6^0.3	-0.7
Antonio Rizzuto	Towson	CAA	All-Def-2021	1.3^0.6	-0.7
Dylan Painter	Delaware	CAA	All-Def-2021	1^4	-0.7
Mehkel Harvey	William & Mary	CAA	All-Def-2021	2.6^10.6	-0.7
Garrett Covington	Youngstown St.	Horz	All-Def-2021	1.6^0	-0.7
Kevin Johnson	Illinois Chicago	Horz	All-Def-2021	1.9^0.5	-0.7
Malik Miller	Morgan St.	MEAC	All-Def-2021	3.1^2.8	-0.7
Stacy Beckton	American	Pat	All-Def-2021	2.5^2.1	-0.7
Jonas Harper	Boston University	Pat	All-Def-2021	1.9^0.3	-0.7
Javon Levi	UT Arlington	SB	All-Def-2021	3.7^0.1	-0.7
Zep Jasper	Auburn	SEC	All-Def-2021	1.9^0.3	-0.7
Clayton Henry	New Mexico St.	WAC	All-Def-2021	1.4^0.5	-0.7

March Madness 2: Coaches with Deepest March Madness Runs

The second key factor in winning March Madness games is if a team's coach has one games and made runs in the past. 

Before picking that big upset, consider that 72% of Division I NCAA teams are coached by a team that has NEVER won a single NCAA tournament game. 

We clicked on the coaches for all 358 teams in www.kenpom.com and realized 257 of 358 never advanced past Round 1 (R1). To make it much easier for you, if you simply search this blog for a team you are considering picking, and nothing is found, then the teams coach has never won a tournament game while coaching that team or any previously teams. We set up a rating system for each coaches' deep runs, but before we explain that, we will start with the seven coaches who get a "10." These seven coaches are the only ones who have both won an NCAA title and taken a second team at least to the championship game. Some have won more than one, but once a coach has taken at least two teams to the title game and won it at least once, we give him a "10."

 

Team	Conf	Current coach	Deep Run Rating
Duke	ACC	Mike Krzyzewski	10
Iona	MAAC	Rick Pitino	10
Kansas	B12	Bill Self	10
Kentucky	SEC	John Calipari	10
Michigan St.	B10	Tom Izzo	10
Syracuse	ACC	Jim Boeheim	10
Villanova	BE	Jay Wright	10

The next 67 coaches have won at least two tournament games at some point in their coaching career. To rate them in order, we give them credit for their two deepest tournament runs, starting with their best run: 7 points if the coach won the National Title. 6 pionts if the coach took a team to the title game but lost. 5 points if the coach took the team to the Final 4. 4 points if the coach took the team to the Elite 8. 3 points if the coach took the team to the Sweet 16. 2 points if the coach won a game to go to the second round. 

To give more credit to coaches who had more than one run, we then looked at each coaches second deepest run and added the following number of points: 3 points for making a second title game (whether they won or lost). 2 points for making it to the Elite 8 or Final 4. 1 point for winning at least one game in a second tournament. When you add these points together the seven listed on the table above are the only ones who get a "10" for the championship and at least one extra trip to the title game, but the following coaches all won at least two tournament games (if that is all then they get a "3" whether it was two wins in one tournament or a single win in two different touranments) all the way up to 9 points for a title run and another run to at least the Elite 8, etc.

 

Team	Conf	Current coach	Deep Run Rating
Baylor	B12	Scott Drew	9
Gonzaga	WCC	Mark Few	9
High Point	BSth	Tubby Smith	9
Virginia	ACC	Tony Bennett	9
Auburn	SEC	Bruce Pearl	7
Detroit Mercy	Horz	Mike Davis	7
Houston	Amer	Kelvin Sampson	7
Miami FL	ACC	Jim Larrañaga	7
Mississippi St.	SEC	Ben Howland	7
South Carolina	SEC	Frank Martin	7
Tennessee	SEC	Rick Barnes	7
Georgia	SEC	Tom Crean (left)	6
Marquette	BE	Shaka Smart	6
Notre Dame	ACC	Mike Brey	6
Oklahoma	B12	Porter Moser	6
Oregon	P12	Dana Altman	6
UCLA	P12	Mick Cronin	6
West Virginia	B12	Bob Huggins	6
Arkansas	SEC	Eric Musselman	5
Cal St. Northridge	BW	Mark Gottfried	5
Eastern Michigan	MAC	Stan Heath	5
Florida	SEC	Michael White	5
Florida St.	ACC	Leonard Hamilton	5
Louisville	ACC	Chris Mack (left)	5
Pittsburgh	ACC	Jeff Capel III	5
Purdue	B10	Matt Painter	5
St. John's	BE	Mike Anderson	5
TCU	B12	Jamie Dixon	5
Texas	B12	Chris Beard	5
Texas A&M	SEC	Buzz Williams	5
USC	P12	Andy Enfield	5
Akron	MAC	John Groce	4
Alabama	SEC	Nate Oats	4
Cal St. Bakersfield	BW	Rod Barnes	4
Coastal Carolina	SB	Cliff Ellis	4
Creighton	BE	Greg McDermott	4
Davidson	A10	Bob McKillop	4
Evansville	MVC	Todd Lickliter	4
Harvard	Ivy	Tommy Amaker	4
Kent St.	MAC	Rob Senderoff	4
Long Beach St.	BW	Dan Monson	4
LSU	SEC	Will Wade	4
Michigan	B10	Juwan Howard	4
Nebraska	B10	Fred Hoiberg	4
Nevada	MWC	Steve Alford	4
Northern Iowa	MVC	Ben Jacobson	4
Ohio St.	B10	Chris Holtmann	4
Oregon St.	P12	Wayne Tinkle	4
Pepperdine	WCC	Lorenzo Romar	4
Saint Mary's	WCC	Randy Bennett	4
Tarleton St.	WAC	Billy Gillispie	4
UCF	Amer	Johnny Dawkins	4
Wisconsin	B10	Greg Gard	4
California	P12	Mark Fox	3
Clemson	ACC	Brad Brownell	3
Colorado	P12	Tad Boyle	3
Connecticut	BE	Dan Hurley	3
Georgia Tech	ACC	Josh Pastner	3
Illinois	B10	Brad Underwood	3
Iowa	B10	Fran McCaffery	3
Missouri	SEC	Cuonzo Martin (left)	3
Northern Kentucky	Horz	Darrin Horn	3
Oral Roberts	Sum	Paul Mills	3
Penn	Ivy	Steve Donahue	3
Richmond	A10	Chris Mooney	3
UC Davis	BW	Jim Les	3
Western Kentucky	CUSA	Rick Stansbury	3

Do note that we put (left) by coaches from this season who have won more than one tournament game but have left their program listed. That includes Tom Crean from Georgia, Chris Mack at Louisville and Cuonzo Martin from Missouri. It also includes coaches who had runs at big problem years ago and are finishing at smaller programs such as Mike Davis (Indiana run but now at Detroit Mercy), Mark Gottfried (Alabama runs but now at Cal St. Northridge) and Cliff Ellis (National Coach of the Year at Auburn in 1999 and now at Coastal Carolina). Finding out where coaches had gone made this a fun though time consuming effort.

The following are the 30 coaches who have won one tournament game, but only one. the first win is the toughest, so a coach on this list is probably more likely to pull an upset than a coach who has never won a tournament game.
 

Team	Conf	Current coach	Deep Run Rating
Butler	BE	LaVall Jordan	2
Dayton	A10	Anthony Grant	2
Hawaii	BW	Eran Ganot	2
Lehigh	Pat	Brett Reed	2
Liberty	ASun	Ritchie McKay	2
Marshall	CUSA	Dan D'Antoni	2
Mississippi	SEC	Kermit Davis	2
Murray St.	OVC	Matt McMahon	2
New Mexico	MWC	Richard Pitino (son)	2
North Texas	CUSA	Grant McCasland	2
Northwestern	B10	Chris Collins	2
Northwestern St.	Slnd	Mike McConathy	2
Ohio	MAC	Jeff Boals	2
Oklahoma St.	B12	Mike Boynton	2
Providence	BE	Ed Cooley	2
Rutgers	B10	Steve Pikiell	2
Saint Louis	A10	Travis Ford	2
Seton Hall	BE	Kevin Willard	2
South Florida	Amer	Brian Gregory	2
Stanford	P12	Jerod Haase	2
Tennessee Tech	OVC	John Pelphrey	2
Tulane	Amer	Ron Hunter	2
Tulsa	Amer	Frank Haith	2
UAB	CUSA	Andy Kennedy	2
UC Irvine	BW	Russell Turner	2
Utah St.	MWC	Ryan Odom	2
UTEP	CUSA	Joe Golding	2
Washington	P12	Mike Hopkins	2
Western Illinois	Sum	Rob Jeter	2
Yale	Ivy	James Jones	2

The 257 teams with coaches who have never won an NCAA tournament game are not listed, but if you didn't find a team you are considering in a search, then their coach has never won a tournament game.

Is My School in March Madness? Alphabetical Answer

It was great to see Shaka Smart at the helm of Marquette in the Big East Tournament, but as my CBS 247 story notes, the end result was Marquette's Madison Square Garden "House of Horrors" Extends to 4th Year.

However, for casual fans who might ask, "Is my school in the tournament?" the following provides a cheat sheet. For example, if you go to Marquette below in the alphabetical list you will see the following:

8.1

Marquette

Big East

37

19-11

Lock

The first number (8.1) indicates the average seed Marquette should receive is an 8-seed in the tournament, based on more than 100 experts' brackets selections. If your team averages a 10 or better they are pretty sure to make the tournament. Since I have Auburn fans who read this blog, the 1.3 means most have Auburn as a 1-seed, but some do have them as a 2-seed. The worst number is a 21.0 since we give a 21-seed for anyone who leaves the team off their bracket, so a 21.0 means none of the experts believe they will make the tournament (typically a weaker team whose tournament is still going on so mathematically they could win their tournament to automatically get a bid.

The number after the team (37) is the official NCAA Basketball Net rating. In general, the 1 to 47 net ratings would go to the tournament with the 48 and worse teams eliminated by automatic qualifiers who have worse net rankings but won their conference tournament.

After the team's record, I categorize the team as one of the following:

Champ - means they already won their conference tournament so are in the NCAA tournament.

Lock - means the team is definitely in the tournament whether or not they win their conference tournament.

Probably - means they should be picked for the tournament, and it would be a surprise if not.

Uphill - means the could be picked, but probably note.

Must Win - is teams that are only on the list because they are still alive in their tournament, and we list the day and time of their conferences championship game.

 

Ave. Seed	Team	Conference	Net	Record	Status
21.0	Abilene Christian	WAC	129	17-9	must win 10 p.m. March 12
21.0	Akron	MAC	146	19-9	must win 7:30 p.m. March 12 on ESPN2
5.9	Alabama	SEC	27	19-12	Lock
21.0	Alabama A&M	SWAC	320	11 & 17	must win 6 p.m. March 12 on ESPNU
18.0	Alcorn St.	SWAC	336	10 & 22	must win 6 p.m. March 12 on ESPNU
1.0	Arizona	Pacific-12	2	28-3	Lock
4.2	Arkansas	SEC	20	24-7	Lock
1.3	Auburn	SEC	10	27-4	Lock
1.0	Baylor	Big 12	3	26-5	Lock
7.9	Boise St.	Mountain West	148	13-19	Probably
15.9	Bryant	Northeast	202	21-9	CHAMP
20.0	BYU	West Coast	54	20-10	Lock
20.8	Cal St. Fullerton	Big West	169	16-10	must win 11:30 p.m. March 12 on ESPN2
12.9	Chattanooga	Southern	63	25-7	CHAMP
14.6	Colgate	Patriot	127	22-11	CHAMP
21.0	Colorado	Pacific-12	74	20-10	must win 9 p.m. March 12 on FOX
6.7	Colorado St.	Mountain West	28	23-4	Lock
5.0	Connecticut	Big East	18	22-8	Lock
21.0	Coppin St.	Mid-Eastern	303	8 & 22	must win 1 p.m. March 12 on ESPN2
21.0	Cornell	Ivy	199	13 & 10	must win 4 p.m. March 12 on ESPNU
10.5	Creighton	Big East	66	20-10	Probably
10.7	Davidson	Atlantic 10	45	24-5	Uphill, unless win 1 p.m. March 13
20.2	Dayton	Atlantic 10	52	22-9	Lock
14.8	Delaware	Colonial	136	21-12	CHAMP
2.3	Duke	ACC	9	26-5	Lock
21.0	Duquesne	Atlantic 10	280	6 & 24	must win 1 p.m. March 13 on CBS Sports
21.0	Eastern Washington	Big Sky	221	16-14	must win March 12 on ESPNU
20.5	Florida	SEC	55	19-12	Uphill
21.0	Florida A&M	SWAC	310	11 & 16	must win 6 p.m. March 12 on ESPNU
21.0	Florida Atlantic	CUSA	123	16 & 13	must win 8:30 p.m. March 12 on CBSSN
21.0	Fordham	Atlantic 10	180	15-15	must win 1 p.m. March 13 on CBS Sports
21.0	George Mason	Atlantic 10	110	14-15	must win 1 p.m. March 13 on CBS Sports
21.0	George Washington	Atlantic 10	223	12 & 17	must win 1 p.m. March 13 on CBS Sports
15.3	Georgia St.	Sun Belt	158	15-10	CHAMP
1.0	Gonzaga	West Coast	1	26-3	CHAMP
21.0	Grambling St.	SWAC	311	9 & 19	must win 6 p.m. March 12 on ESPNU
20.9	Grand Canyon	WAC	88	20-7	must win 10 p.m. March 12
21.0	Hawaii	Big West	164	14-10	must win 11:30 p.m. March 12 on ESPN2
5.0	Houston	American	5	26-5	Lock
3.9	Illinois	Big Ten	14	22-8	Lock
19.0	Indiana	Big Ten	43	18-12	Uphill
6.2	Iowa	Big Ten	15	22-9	Lock
8.2	Iowa St.	Big 12	39	20-11	Lock
15.2	Jacksonville St.	Atlantic Sun	140	19-10	CHAMP
1.7	Kansas	Big 12	7	25-6	Lock
21.0	Kansas St.	Big 12	77	14-17	must win 6 p.m. March 12
21.0	Kent St.	MAC	130	19-11	must win 7:30 p.m. March 12 on ESPN2
1.9	Kentucky	SEC	4	25-6	Lock
21.0	La Salle	Atlantic 10	222	11 & 18	must win 1 p.m. March 13 on CBS Sports
16.2	Long Beach St.	Big West	154	16-11	must win 11:30 p.m. March 12 on ESPN2
14.5	Longwood	Big South	125	22-6	CHAMP
21.0	Louisiana Tech	CUSA	103	19-9	must win 8:30 p.m. March 12 on CBSSN
10.4	Loyola-Chicago	Missouri Valley	24	24-7	CHAMP
5.9	LSU	SEC	17	21-10	Lock
8.1	Marquette	Big East	37	19-11	Lock
21.0	Massachusetts	Atlantic 10	185	14-16	must win 1 p.m. March 13 on CBS Sports
21.0	McNeese St.	Southland	313	7 & 13	must win 9:30 p.m. March 12 on ESPN2
21.0	MD Eastern Shore	Mid-Eastern	300	8 & 14	must win 1 p.m. March 12 on ESPN2
10.1	Memphis	American	35	19-9	Probably
10.8	Miami (FLA.)	ACC	61	22-9	Probably
10.3	Michigan	Big Ten	31	17-13	Probably
8.0	Michigan St.	Big Ten	38	20-11	Lock
21.0	Middle Tennessee	CUSA	104	20-9	must win 8:30 p.m. March 12 on CBSSN
21.0	Mississippi St.	SEC	55	19-12	must win 1 p.m. March 13 on ESPN
20.8	Monmouth	Metro Atlantic	142	19-12	must win 7:30 p.m. March 12 on ESPN2
14.5	Montana St.	Big Sky	132	22-7	must win March 12 on ESPNU
21.0	Morgan St.	Mid-Eastern	301	8 & 13	must win 1 p.m. March 12 on ESPN2
7.5	Murray St.	Ohio Valley	23	27-2	CHAMP
14.1	New Mexico St.	WAC	87	21-6	must win 10 p.m. March 12
20.6	New Orleans	Southland	254	14-12	must win 9:30 p.m. March 12 on ESPN2
21.0	Niagra	Metro Atlantic	201	13-15	must win 7:30 p.m. March 12 on ESPN2
16.3	Nicholls St.	Southland	188	17-10	must win 9:30 p.m. March 12 on ESPN2
15.9	Norfolk St.	Mid-Eastern	162	19-6	must win 1 p.m. March 12 on ESPN2
8.7	North Carolina	ACC	32	23-8	Lock
21.0	North Carolina Central	Mid-Eastern	290	11-14	must win 1 p.m. March 12 on ESPN2
12.5	North Texas	CUSA	41	21-5	must win 8:30 p.m. March 12 on CBSSN
21.0	Northern Colorado	Big Sky	198	16-13	must win March 12 on ESPNU
11.2	Notre Dame	ACC	50	21-9	Probably
20.9	Ohio	MAC	111	22-8	must win 7:30 p.m. March 12 on ESPN2
6.4	Ohio St.	Big Ten	22	19-10	Lock
20.3	Oklahoma	Big 12	42	17-14	Probably
21.0	Penn	Ivy	208	12- 15	must win 4 p.m. March 12 on ESPNU
21.0	Penn St.	Big Ten	93	13-16	must win 3:30 p.m. March 13 on CBS
21.0	Portland St.	Big Sky	276	11-16	must win March 12 on ESPNU
13.9	Princeton	Ivy	101	20-5	must win 4 p.m. March 12 on ESPNU
4.0	Providence	Big East	26	24-4	Lock
2.8	Purdue	Big Ten	13	25-6	Lock
21.0	Quinnipiac	Metro Atlantic	239	12-16	must win 7:30 p.m. March 12 on ESPN2
21.0	Rhode Island	Atlantic 10	138	14-15	must win 1 p.m. March 13 on CBS Sports
21.0	Richmond	Atlantic 10	92	19-12	must win 1 p.m. March 13 on CBS Sports
21.0	Rider	Metro Atlantic	242	13-18	must win 7:30 p.m. March 12 on ESPN2
13.6	Rutgers	Big Ten	78	18-12	Uphill
21.0	Saint Joseph's	Atlantic 10	181	11-19	must win 1 p.m. March 13 on CBS Sports
21.0	Saint Louis	Atlantic 10	62	20-10	must win 1 p.m. March 13 on CBS Sports
21.0	Sam Houston	WAC	149	16-13	must win 10 p.m. March 12
8.6	San Diego St.	Mountain West	29	21-7	Lock
9.6	San Francisco	West Coast	25	23-9	Probably
20.4	Seattle	WAC	124	21-8	must win 10 p.m. March 12
7.4	Seton Hall	Big East	34	20-9	Lock
13.8	SMU	American	49	22-7	Uphill
12.1	South Dakota St.	Summit	64	28-4	CHAMP
21.0	South Florida	American	244	8-22	must win 3:15 p.m. ET March 13 on ESPN
21.0	Southeastern LA	Southland	262	14-13	must win 9:30 p.m. March 12 on ESPN2
21.0	Southern Utah	Big Sky	166	18-10	must win March 12 on ESPNU
20.9	St. Bonaventure	Atlantic 10	85	20-8	must win 1 p.m. March 13 on CBS Sports
5.4	St. Mary's (CA)	West Coast	19	24-7	Lock
17.2	St. Peter's	Metro Atlantic	131	16-11	must win 7:30 p.m. March 12 on ESPN2
20.9	Stephen F. Austin	WAC	109	18-8	must win 10 p.m. March 12
8.9	TCU	Big 12	46	19-11	Probably
21.0	Temple	American	107	17-11	must win 3:15 p.m. ET March 13 on ESPN
2.8	Tennessee	SEC	8	23-7	Lock
5.1	Texas	Big 12	16	21-10	Lock
21.0	Texas A&M	SEC	55	19-12	must win 1 p.m. March 13 on ESPN
21.0	Texas A&M CC	Southland	252	16-11	must win 9:30 p.m. March 12 on ESPN2
19.5	Texas Southern	SWAC	212	16-12	must win 6 p.m. March 12 on ESPNU
3.0	Texas Tech	Big 12	12	23-8	must win 6 p.m. March 12
13.1	Toledo	MAC	65	24-6	must win 7:30 p.m. March 12 on ESPN2
21.0	Tulane	American	97	13-14	must win 3:15 p.m. ET March 13 on ESPN
21.0	Tulsa	American	182	10 & 19	must win 3:15 p.m. ET March 13 on ESPN
20.4	UAB	CUSA	53	22-7	must win 8:30 p.m. March 12 on CBSSN
21.0	UC Davis	Big West	210	12 & 9	must win 11:30 p.m. March 12 on ESPN2
21.0	UC Riverside	Big West	156	14-11	must win 11:30 p.m. March 12 on ESPN2
21.0	UC Santa Barbara	Big West	141	14-10	must win 11:30 p.m. March 12 on ESPN2
21.0	UCF	American	95	17-11	must win 3:15 p.m. ET March 13 on ESPN
3.9	UCLA	Pacific-12	11	23-6	Lock
6.8	USC	Pacific-12	33	25-6	Lock
20.9	Utah St.	Mountain West	60	17-14	must win 6 p.m. March 12 on CBS
21.0	Utah Valley	WAC	116	18-12	must win 10 p.m. March 12
21.0	UTEP	CUSA	161	17-12	must win 8:30 p.m. March 12 on CBSSN
21.0	Vanderbilt	SEC	55	19-12	must win 1 p.m. March 13 on ESPN
17.1	VCU	Atlantic 10	51	21-8	Uphill, unless win 1 p.m. March 13
13.0	Vermont	America East	56	26-5	Uphill, unless win 11 am March 12
2.4	Villanova	Big East	6	23-7	Lock
20.9	Virginia	ACC	79	19-12	must win 8:30 p.m. March 12 on ESPN
20.4	Virginia Tech	ACC	36	20-12	must win 8:30 p.m. March 12 on ESPN
14.2	Wake Forest	ACC	44	23-9	Uphill
21.0	Washington	Pacific-12	114	17-14	must win 9 p.m. March 12 on FOX
20.8	Washington St.	Pacific-12	59	19-13	must win 9 p.m. March 12 on FOX
20.8	Weber St.	Big Sky	175	18-11	must win March 12 on ESPNU
21.0	West Virginia	Big 12	76	16-16	must win 6 p.m. March 12
21.0	Wichita St.	American	81	15-12	must win 3:15 p.m. ET March 13 on ESPN
3.0	Wisconsin	Big Ten	21	24-6	Lock
15.9	Wright St.	Horizon	192	20-13	CHAMP
11.6	Wyoming	Mountain West	47	23-7	Probably
13.1	Xavier	Big East	40	18-13	Uphill
21.0	Yale	Ivy	152	16-11	must win 4 p.m. March 12 on ESPNU