I was asked why I went with nine teams to play in my Statis-Pro AL season, particularly since the Kansas City Royals and Boston Red Sox were among my six relegated teams left out, even though they had better records than the Houston Astros and Toronto Blue Jays, who I included.
.Since there are many factors such as injuries and slumps in the first month of the season, I basically look at the odds of each team winning the World Series, I play all player cards on the roster unless a player is on 60-day DL and/or not expected to play for at least two months. So my games are a "if healthy" simulation and even includes some minor league Top Prospects expected to be called up soon.
Since I am playing the AL this year (I rotate with a friend) there is still a pretty strong break between the last team I included (Tampa Bay Rays with a 1.6% chance of winning the World Series and recent examples of unexpectedly winning the AL) and the top team not included (Detroit Tigers at 1.1%).
I do sometimes adjust later in the season and play a bunch of catchup games with a team being added, so it could be that the Tigers, Royals or Red Sox for that matter end up being added to the nine teams later or that the Astros are dropped if they are still playing sub .400 ball in midseason, but for now this is the line-up for the nine teams I am playing with the 2024 projected cards.
| Chance of Statis-Pro AL Teams | WS Win % |
|---|---|
| New York Yankees | 10.4% |
| Baltimore Orioles | 6.5% |
| Texas Rangers | 4.8% |
| Houston Astros | 4.8% |
| Seattle Mariners | 4.0% |
| Minnesota Twins | 3.6% |
| Cleveland Guardians | 2.1% |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 1.8% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 1.6% |
| Chance team we are using | 39.6% |
| Chance of AL relegated teams | WS Win % |
| Detroit Tigers | 1.1% |
| Kansas City Royals | 0.8% |
| Boston Red Sox | 0.8% |
| Los Angeles Angels | 0.1% |
| Oakland Athletics | 0.1% |
| Chicago White Sox | 0.1% |
| Chance of team we are excluding | 3.1% |
| Chance of NL Teams Winning WS | WS Win % |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 24.1% |
| Atlanta Braves | 15.4% |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 6.5% |
| Chicago Cubs | 2.1% |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 1.4% |
| San Diego Padres | 1.3% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 1.3% |
| New York Mets | 1.3% |
| San Francisco Giants | 1.3% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 1.1% |
| Cincinnati Reds | 0.8% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 0.3% |
| Washington Nationals | 0.1% |
| Miami Marlins | 0.1% |
| Colorado Rockies | 0.1% |
| Chance of an NL team winning WS | 57.3% |
No comments:
Post a Comment