Monday, May 13, 2024

WS Odds of Our 9 Statis-Pro Teams - and the other 21

 I was asked why I went with nine teams to play in my Statis-Pro AL season, particularly since the Kansas City Royals and Boston Red Sox were among my six relegated teams left out, even though they had better records than the Houston Astros and Toronto Blue Jays, who I included.

.Since there are many factors such as injuries and slumps in the first month of the season, I basically look at the odds of each team winning the World Series, I play all player cards on the roster unless a player is on 60-day DL and/or not expected to play for at least two months. So my games are a "if healthy" simulation and even includes some minor league Top Prospects expected to be called up soon.

Since I am playing the AL this year (I rotate with a friend) there is still a pretty strong break between the last team I included (Tampa Bay Rays with a 1.6% chance of winning the World Series and recent examples of unexpectedly winning the AL) and the top team not included (Detroit Tigers at 1.1%).

I do sometimes adjust later in the season and play a bunch of catchup games with a team being added, so it could be that the Tigers, Royals or Red Sox for that matter end up being added to the nine teams later or that the Astros are dropped if they are still playing sub .400 ball in midseason, but for now this is the line-up for the nine teams I am playing with the 2024 projected cards.

Chance of Statis-Pro AL Teams                  WS Win %
New York Yankees10.4%
Baltimore Orioles6.5%
Texas Rangers4.8%
Houston Astros4.8%
Seattle Mariners4.0%
Minnesota Twins3.6%
Cleveland Guardians2.1%
Toronto Blue Jays1.8%
Tampa Bay Rays1.6%
Chance team we are using39.6%
Chance of AL relegated teamsWS Win %
Detroit Tigers1.1%
Kansas City Royals0.8%
Boston Red Sox0.8%
Los Angeles Angels0.1%
Oakland Athletics0.1%
Chicago White Sox0.1%
Chance of team we are excluding3.1%
Chance of NL Teams Winning WSWS Win %
Los Angeles Dodgers24.1%
Atlanta Braves15.4%
Philadelphia Phillies6.5%
Chicago Cubs2.1%
Milwaukee Brewers1.4%
San Diego Padres1.3%
Arizona Diamondbacks1.3%
New York Mets1.3%
San Francisco Giants1.3%
St. Louis Cardinals1.1%
Cincinnati Reds0.8%
Pittsburgh Pirates0.3%
Washington Nationals0.1%
Miami Marlins0.1%
Colorado Rockies0.1%
Chance of an NL team winning WS57.3%

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