Saturday, March 30, 2024

Scheyer Leads List of 125 Greatest 21st Century Players as He Leads Duke to Elite 8

Scroll down for the best 125 college players of this century:

In this 2011 piece, Sports Illustrated featured the Value Add Basketball rating system which I had developed. The system was designed to determine how many points each college basketball player was worth as opposed to a replacement player - defined as a 7th or 8th man on a mid-level team.

As I stated in a 2024 TV interview, while Anthony Davis was the greatest all-around college player of the century in my view, the most valuable college players are often not the one-and-done freshman like Davis, because all players improve so much between freshman and sophomore seasons, and continue to improve a little bit after that. By our calculations, Jon Scheyer was the most valuable college player from the seasons in which we had the stats necessary to calculate the figures (2002-2023, and the stats are no longer available so 2023 will be the last season).

These stats indicated that if Scheyer missed his whole season, and a standard mid-level college 7th man took his place in a 7-man rotation, then Duke would have scored 9 points fewer a game (AdjO of 9.11) and allowed two points more per game (-2.03) and after a couple of other minor adjustments shift each score by 14 points. Now in fact, Scheyer would not have been replaced by the 7th man from a mid-level team - the 7th man for Duke was a freshman Mason Plumlee who was worth 2 points per game already, and by the next year was worth 5 points a game and by his senior year 9.66 points a game. So probably if Scheyer had not been able to play Duke's replacement would have been strong enough that they would have been closer to 10 points a game worse.

If that played out then Duke without Scheyer would have still been elite, but probably 27-11 instead of 35-5, because they would have then also lost in the semifinal of the ACC tournament and then lose in the Elite 8 to Baylor rather than winning both.

Because the website and the 4,000+ players it ranked every year is starting to have some glitches I wanted to post the most valuable 125 players from 2002 to 2023. One great testimony to how well Duke has always been coached by Coach K (Mike Krzyzewski) and now Scheyer himself is that Duke has an incredible nine of the most valuable 125 players from these 22 seasons – more than twice any other school. The only other schools with more than one are:

4 of greatest 125 players from 2002 to 2023 – Connecticut, Iowa, Kansas, Marquette.

3 of greatest 125 - Georgetown, Gonzaga, Kentucky, Providence, Utah, Villanova, Wisconsin.

2 of greatest 125 – Alabama, Boston College, Cincinnati, Creighton, Michigan St., North Carolina, North Carolina St., Notre Dame, Ohio St., Oklahoma, Oregon, San Diego St., UCLA, Utah St., Wake Forest, Washington.

The Big East does nudge out the ACC 23 to 20 on the top 125 list - fitting for the two conferences whose teams have won 16 of the 22 titles this Century and have half of the Elite 8 teams this season.

Ryan Gomes of Providence is the only player to be worth more than 10 points per game in three different seasons, and the following players were worth more than 10 points in two separate seasons - Delon Wright (Utah), JJ Redick (Duke),  Luka Garza (Iowa), Shelden Williams (Duke) and Troy Bell (Boston College).

This also led to the free Value Add Basketball Game with player cards from more than 200 men's and women's teams from the 1943 Wyoming squad to the 2024 James Madison team - with Bill Walton's UCLA team beating Michael Jordan's UNC team in our first all-time tournament championship.

Scheyer starts with the most important martin for any player - getting tons of steals and almost never turning the ball over in the other end.

The “dunk” range on the card is really an adjustment for level of competition played and the differences in eras, and the calculations showed how many ways Scheyer dominated even though he wouldn’t jump off the chart of leader boards in pure points and rebounds per game, avoiding fouling, and drawing fouls.

Overall Pomeroy calculates he was the third best offensive player that year behind only Jimmy Butler of Marquette and Tim Abromaitis of Notre Dame – AND he stayed on the court for an incredible 91.7% of all minutes. Also while his 3-pointers made range of 1-3 (out of 20 on which something can happen, a shot or being fouled) might not seem that high, for 2010 it was because teams shot far fewer 3-pointers. 

In fact, in 2010 he was one of only six players to hit 110 three-pointers – and no power conference player hit more than 116 (Donald Sims - Appalachian State 123, LaceDarius Dunn – Baylor  116, Jon Diebler - Ohio State 116, Chris Warren – Mississippi 111 and Jacob Pullen - K-State 110. Put it all together, and Scheyer had the best college season of the century as he and Kyle Singler led Duke to the title.

When he was announced as the successor to the legend Coach K, my immediate reaction was that Duke was bound to continue on deep runs now that they had tapped the most valuable player of the century to teach a new generation of Duke players to be the most efficient players they could be.

After the Sweet 16 win over Houston, I was able to quickly tell him he topped our ratings for the first time in person.

Rank  Year   MVP 2002-2023HtCl Team                                   AdjOAdjDValueConf
12010Jon Scheyer6'5SrDuke9.11-2.0314.35ACC
22019Zion Williamson 6'7FrDuke10.53-3.5514.08ACC
32012Anthony Davis6'10FrKentucky7.29-5.0613.81SEC
42004Devin Harris6'3JrWisconsin7.83-1.8213.48B10
52003Mike Sweetney6'8JrGeorgetown11.8-4.2113.45BE
62008Michael Beasley6'9FrKansas St.8.43-3.9913.25B12
72023Zach Edey7'4JrPurdue125.994.513.17B10
82014Shabazz Napier6'1SrConnecticut5.37-2.1613.05Amer
92015Delon Wright6'5SrUtah6.84-4.213.04P12
102014Delon Wright 6'5JrUtah4.99-2.412.83P12
112003David West6'9SrXavier10.39-4.7812.74A10
122011Jordan Taylor6'1JrWisconsin9.56012.71B10
132015Karl-Anthony Towns6'11FrKentucky5.92-5.3812.5SEC
142005Andrew Bogut6'1SoUtah7.13-3.3212.44MWC
152012Jae Crowder6'6SrMarquette6.24-4.8912.43BE
162017Sindarius Thornwell 6'5SrSouth Carolina10.13-4.0412.37SEC
172022Keegan Murray 6'8SoIowa9.77-2.5412.31B10
182019Dedric Lawson 6'9JrKansas8.93-3.2812.21B12
192013Trey Burke6'0SoMichigan8.61-0.8212.19B10
202011Kemba Walker6'1JrConnecticut8.41-2.1912.19BE
212015Frank Kaminsky 7'0SrWisconsin8.41-2.9212.18B10
222006Shelden Williams6'9FrDuke6.67-5.2712.17ACC
232022Oscar Tshiebwe 6'9JrKentucky7.66-4.4712.13SEC
242008Kevin Love6'10FrUCLA7.99-3.3312.08P10
252019Matt Rafferty 6'8SrFurman8.61-3.4612.07SC
262002Steve Logan6'1SrCincinnati12.62-2.1312.06CUSA
272007Kevin Durant6'9FrTexas7.41-4.0112.04B12
282009Ty Lawson5'11JrNorth Carolina7.55-1.411.74ACC
292019Cassius Winston 6'1JrMichigan St.10.38-1.3511.74B10
302003Troy Bell6'1SrBoston College12.54-1.411.71BE
312009Blake Griffin6'10SoOklahoma7-3.7811.59B12
322003Dwyane Wade6'4SoMarquette10.42-3.3711.59CUSA
332017Frank Mason5'11SrKansas11.87-1.2511.51B12
342002Reece Gaines6'6JrLouisville12.63-1.4111.48CUSA
352020Malachi Flynn 6'1JrSan Diego St.9.18-2.2411.42MWC
362003Josh Howard6'6SrWake Forest10.06-3.4911.38ACC
372023Adama Sanogo6'9JrConnecticut122.690.911.37BE
382008Tyler Hansbrough6'9JrNorth Carolina8.72-1.9411.37ACC
392003Ryan Gomes6'7SoProvidence9.86-3.6111.31BE
402005Spencer Nelson6'1SrUtah St.6.91-1.5911.3WAC
412019Brandon Clarke 6'8JrGonzaga7.97-3.3311.3WCC
422003Carmelo Anthony6'8FrSyracuse9.77-3.6211.26BE
432023Marcus Sasser6'2SrHouston123.490.411.25Amer
442021Evan Mobley 7'0FrUSC7.72-3.4411.16P12
452004Luke Jackson6'7SrOregon7.08-1.1611.16P10
462003Brett Blizzard6'3SrNorth Carolina Wilmington11.05-2.2211.14CAA
472017Josh Hart 6'5SrVillanova9.59-2.9811.1BE
482021Luka Garza 6'11SrIowa9.86-1.2311.09B10
492009DeJuan Blair6'7SoPittsburgh7-3.3211.08BE
502003Adam Hess6'7JrWilliam & Mary14.050.8611.08CAA
512019CJ Massinburg 6'3SrBuffalo9.81-1.2511.06MAC
522016Thomas Walkup 6'4SrStephen F. Austin11.24-3.1811.05Slnd
532014Jordan Adams6'5SoUCLA4.99-1.2311.04P12
542014Sean Kilpatrick6'4SrCincinnati5.75-0.6311.03Amer
552019Grant Williams 6'7JrTennessee8.8-2.2311.03SEC
562021Kendric Davis 5'11JrSMU9.19-1.8211.01Amer
572004Chris Paul6'1FrWake Forest6.61-0.9610.97ACC
582014TJ Warren6'8SoNorth Carolina St.5.59-1.1810.96ACC
592014Billy Baron6'2SrCanisius7.010.8510.95MAAC
602019Ja Morant 6'3SoMurray St.9.39-1.5110.9OVC
612013Otto Porter6'8SoGeorgetown5.91-3.8510.89BE
622005Mike Harris6'1SrRice6.53-2.610.87WAC
632015Gary Payton 6'3JrOregon St.2.63-6.5710.87P12
642014Doug McDermott6'8SrCreighton8.31.6310.81BE
652023Ryan Kalkbrenner7'1JrCreighton133.493.210.8BE
662020Payton Pritchard 6'2SrOregon9.9-0.8810.78P12
672011Norris Cole6'2SrCleveland St.6.13-2.1810.78Horz
682004Ryan Gomes6'7JrProvidence6.57-2.3210.75BE
692019Ty Jerome 6'5JrVirginia8.01-2.7410.75ACC
702006JJ Redick6'5SrDuke9.33-0.710.74ACC
712023Steven Ashworth6'1JrUtah St.127.798.910.72MWC
722020Devon Dotson 6'2SoKansas8-2.7110.7B12
732014Trevor Releford6'0SrAlabama5.06-0.9110.66SEC
742003Jameer Nelson6'0JrSt. Joseph's9.07-3.6310.66A10
752004Julius Hodge6'7JrNorth Carolina St.6.05-1.7310.61ACC
762006Nick Fazekas6'11JrNevada7.25-3.1210.56WAC
772014Xavier Thames6'3SrSan Diego St.5.37-0.5310.56MWC
782019Myles Powell 6'2JrSeton Hall9.07-1.4910.56BE
792013Victor Oladipo6'5JrIndiana5.71-3.2310.53B10
802014Marcus Smart6'4SoOklahoma St.3.38-2.4810.48B12
812018Jevon Carter 6'2SrWest Virginia8.97-3.1210.47B12
822017Monte Morris 6'3SrIowa St.10.56-1.5310.47B12
832018Mikal Bridges 6'7JrVillanova9.01-2.6610.46BE
842022Collin Gillespie 6' 3SrVillanova8.45-1.7410.42BE
852006Brandon Roy6'6SrWashington7.81-1.3910.4P10
862011Jared Sullinger6'9FrOhio St.6.81-2.6510.4B10
872016Buddy Hield 6'4SrOklahoma11.81-1.7410.39B12
882020Luka Garza 6'11JrIowa8.53-1.8410.38B10
892004David Hawkins6'1SrTemple5.97-1.1110.37A10
902023Tylor Perry5'11SrNorth Texas124.394.110.37CUSA
912008Mario Chalmers6'1JrKansas5.34-2.8510.35B12
922015Jerian Grant 6'5SrNotre Dame7.12-1.4510.33ACC
932017Bonzie Colson 6'5JrNotre Dame9.2-3.2310.33ACC
942015Aaron White 6'9SrIowa6.55-2.7810.33B10
952005Danny Granger6'1SrNew Mexico4.83-3.8410.32MWC
962004Travis Diener6'1JrMarquette7.430.910.32BE
972003Chris Williams6'3SrBall St.12.90.6110.32MAC
982005Shelden Williams6'9FrDuke4.13-4.5210.3ACC
992022Terrell Brown 6'3SrWashington8.55-1.7410.29P12
1002015Corey Walden 6'2SrEastern Kentucky5.12-3.410.28OVC
1012020Markus Howard 5'11SrMarquette10.13-0.1210.25BE
1022005JJ Redick6'5JrDuke7.04-0.5710.25ACC
1032018Yante Maten 6'8SrGeorgia10.52-2.1110.24SEC
1042006Quincy Douby6'1JrRutgers7.67-1.3610.23BE
1052006Adam Morrison6'1JrGonzaga9.03010.23WCC
1062023Brandon Miller6'9FrAlabama11788.210.23SEC
1072019RJ Barrett 6'7FrDuke8.05-2.1910.23ACC
1082007Roy Hibbert7'2JrGeorgetown6.77-2.9310.22BE
1092019Shamorie Ponds 6'1JrSt. John's8.91-1.3110.22BE
1102012Draymond Green6'7SrMichigan St.4.11-410.19B10
1112002Carlos Boozer6'9JrDuke10.27-3.0110.17ACC
1122017Nigel Williams-Goss 6'3JrGonzaga7.93-3.4510.16WCC
1132002Troy Bell6'1JrBoston College10.62-1.7910.15BE
1142006Paul Millsap6'1JrLouisiana Tech5.26-4.6810.13WAC
1152014KJ McDaniels6'6JrClemson3.47-2.7510.13ACC
1162013Erick Green6'3SrVirginia Tech8.510.9310.12ACC
1172008Stephen Curry6'2SoDavidson7.59-1.8910.12SC
1182004Anthony Dobbins6'1SrRichmond3.16-4.7210.12A10
1192018Keita Bates-Diop 6'7JrOhio St.8.25-3.4610.06B10
1202020Christian Vital 6'2SrConnecticut7.01-3.0510.06Amer
1212005Ryan Gomes6'7SrProvidence6.61-1.3210.05BE
1222020Jordan Ford 6'1SrSaint Mary's9.95-0.0810.03WCC
1232019Jordan Murphy 6'7SrMinnesota7.02-310.02B10
1242017Luke Kennard 6'6SoDuke10.64-0.8910.01ACC
1252020Jalen Smith 6'10SoMaryland6.85-3.1610.01B10

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