Tuesday, March 26, 2024

ACC and Big East Only 2 To Overperform Based on Seeds Making Sweet 16

The following is a breakdown of every multi-bid conference who overperformed or underperformed the number of Sweet 16 teams they produced based on the seeds of teams that were invited from their conference. The percentages were calculated in this great study of all results from the 1985 through 2023 brackets.

We rounded the percent chance by each team to the nearest 10% based on the study.

1-seeds (80%) through 4-seeds (50%) all have at least an even chance of winning their first two games and going to the Sweet 16 - but it is much less likely after that.

The 5-seeds and 6-seeds both have a 30 percent chance.

The trick is then something most basketball fans know, if you fall to an 8- or 9-seed you hope to fall even further to a 10-seed so you do not need to play a 1-seed if you win your first game, since the 1-seed almost always wins but the 2- 3- and 4-seeds are much more beatable most years..

An 11-seed or a 10-seed has the same 20% chance of making the Sweet 16 - the same chance as a 7-seed. However, the 8- and 9-seeds have only the same 10% chance as the 12-seed. We also note that this year the First 4 teams were 10-seeds, so those 10-seeds actually had only half the chance of other 10-seeds since they had to play another 10-seed in a game before going onto play a 7-seed.

It is very rare for a 13- 14- or 15-seed to make the Sweet 16, and on 16-seed has ever done so.

The following is the breakdown for 2024. It is no surprise the ACC and Big East are the only two overperforming conferences, since the teams in those conferences have won 16 of 22 national titles this century.

Conferences that outperformed their seeding

ACC (4 of 4 Teams, +2.1 MORE than expected): Clemson 6-seed (30%), Duke 4-seed (50%), N.C. State 11-seed (20%), , North Carolina 1-seed (80%), DID NOT MAKE IT: Virginia 10-First 4-seed (10%), , 

Big East (3 of 3 Teams, +1.1 MORE than expected): Connecticut 1-seed (80%), Creighton 3-seed (50%), Marquette 2-seed (60%), All Teams Made Sweet 16.

Conferences that lived up to Expectations

Big Ten (2 of 6 Teams, -0.2 BASICALLY as expected): Illinois 3-seed (50%), Purdue 1-seed (80%), DID NOT MAKE IT: Michigan St. 9-seed (10%), Nebraska 8-seed (10%), Northwestern 9-seed (10%), Wisconsin 5-seed (30%).

Pac-12 (1 of 4 Teams, -0.1 BASICALLY as expected): Arizona 2-seed (60%), DID NOT MAKE IT: Colorado 10-First 4-seed (10%), , Oregon 11-seed (80%), Washington St. 7-seed (20%).

Mountain West Conference (1 of 6 Teams, 0.0 BASICALLY as expected): San Diego St. 5-seed (30%), DID NOT MAKE IT: Boise St. 10-First 4-seed (10%), Colorado St. 10-First 4-seed (50%), Nevada 10-seed (20%), New Mexico 11-seed (20%), San Diego St. 5-seed (30%), Utah St. 8-seed (10%), 

West Coast Conference (1 of 2 Teams, 0.0 BASICALLY as expected): Gonzaga 5-seed (30%), DID NOT MAKE IT: Saint Mary's 5-seed (30%), 

American (0 of 2 Teams, -0.2 BASICALLY as expected): DID NOT MAKE IT: Florida Atlantic 8-seed (10%), UAB 12-seed (10%), 

Conferences that received too many invites based on results

SEC (2 of 8 Teams, -0.8 FEWER than expected): Alabama 4-seed (50%), Tennessee 2-seed (60%), DID NOT MAKE IT: Auburn 4-seed (50%), Florida 7-seed (20%), Kentucky 3-seed (50%), Mississippi St. 8-seed (10%), South Carolina 6-seed (30%), Texas A&M 9-seed (10%), 

Big 12 (2 of 8 Teams, -1.3 FEWER than expected): Houston 1-seed (80%), Iowa St. 2-seed (60%), DID NOT MAKE IT: Baylor 3-seed (50%), Kansas 4-seed (50%), TCU 9-seed (10%), Texas 7-seed (20%), Texas Tech 6-seed (30%), BYU 6-seed (30%).

Atlantic 10 (0 of 2 Teams, -0.4 FEWER than expected): DID NOT MAKE IT: Dayton 7-seed (20%), Duquesne (11-seed, 20%).

No comments:

Post a Comment