Monday, October 2, 2023

Creighton 79, Alabama 78 in What Could Have Been 2023 Elite 8 Game

One reason we want to play each team once 8s to catch anything we missed in the cards. In this case Mark Sears and Brandon Miller only got the ball on a 2 or 3 roll on the 8-sided die. When a player had 19 percent to 31 percent of the possessions they get the ball on two of eight numbers which was the case with both of them, so I updated the cards so Sears gets the ball in a 2 & 7 while Miller gets it on a 3 & 8. You may note from a recent game Murray State's Ja Morant got the ball in a 1, 6 or 7 and that was because he had it more than. 32 percent of the time in 2019.

Yes we know it is 35 days until college basketball, but one day until the MLB playoffs. But we don't really want to be posting on baseball simulation as the real playoffs are starting, so instead we resume our all-time great tournament with two of last year's teams that are yet to play in the game.

What an Elite 8 Game this would have been last year if San Diego State had not pulled the upsets. In our simulated game, Creighton dominated the board 37-28, but Bama dominated the turnovers 16-8. Bama's Mark Sears and Brandon Miller nailed clutch 3-pointers throughout,,but Creighton's Arthur Kaluma seemed to get to the rim at will.  In the end there were nine lead changes before a winner emerged to advance in our All-Time great game that actually featured two teams from last season (our teams go back to Wyoming 1943 in the Value Add Basketball Game. Scroll down for our box score and results.

 In 2023, San Diego State upset the best regular season team of the year - Alabama - in the Sweet 16, then they edged out one of three Big East Elite 8 teams Creighton.

In our third all-time great tournament those two teams play each other. We had already verified the exact dunk numbers for Creighton and that Alabama was very close. on double check, Alabama's dunk range did drop just one to 51-54. 

With the defensive adjustment, that leaves Creighton at a 51-55 and Alabama at 51-52. Based on the Alabama +2 team rating at the top of the team sheet and the Creighton +1 team rating on their sheet, Alabama is a one point favorite in this game. However, one advantage we do see for Creighton is their starters played a lot more due to their deliberate pace, while Alabama needs a lot more possessions from their bench due to the up tempo.

Here are the line-ups. The box scores will be added after the game.

Creighton 2023            Ht    Pos        Pts  Reb  Stl  Blk  Fls  Actual Season Stats         
Ryan Nembhard6'01-PG14310512.1 Pts, 4.0 Reb, 4.8 Ast
Trey Alexander6'42-SG10311113.6 Pts, 4.2 Reb, 2.6 Ast
Baylor Scheierman6'63-SF9600312.8 Pts, 8.3 Reb, 3.3 Ast
Arthur Kaluma6'75-C181003215.9 Pts, 6.1 Reb, 1.2 Ast
Ryan Kalkbrenner7'04-PF9701211.8 Pts, 6.0 Reb, 1.6 Ast
Shereef Mitchell6'01-PG620021.8 Pts, 0.6 Reb, 0.5 Ast
Ben Shtolzberg6'42-SG210011.5 Pts, 0.9 Reb, 0.6 Ast
Francisco Farabello6'43-SF710013.0 Pts, 1.3 Reb, 0.9 Ast
Mason Miller6'84-PF210012.3 Pts, 1.6 Reb, 0.2 Ast
Fredrick King6'105-C230013.4 Pts, 2.5 Reb, 0.1 Ast
Totals  79372519Game 16 turnovers
Alabama 2023HtPosPtsRebStlBlkFlsActual Season Stats
Jaden Bradley6'31-PG1342016.4 Pts, 2.6 Reb, 3.1 Ast
Mark Sears6'12-SG10120212.5 Pts, 3.5 Reb, 2.6 Ast
Brandon Miller6'93-SF16710118.8 Pts, 8.2 Reb, 2.1 Ast
Charles Bediako7'04-PF410026.4 Pts, 6.0 Reb, 0.6 Ast
Noah Clowney6'105-C1090439.8 Pts, 7.9 Reb, 0.8 Ast
Jahvon Quinerly6'11-PG521018.7 Pts, 1.9 Reb, 3.6 Ast
Nimari Burnett6'42-SG710015.6 Pts, 2.0 Reb, 0.7 Ast
Rylan Griffen6'53-SF511015.9 Pts, 2.6 Reb, 0.7 Ast
Noah Gurley6'84-PF620014.9 Pts, 3.1 Reb, 0.6 Ast
Nick Pringle6'95-C210013.5 Pts, 3.1 Reb, 0.2 Ast
Totals  78297414Game 8 turnovers

Alabama entered a 1-point favorite based on the cards, but Creighton emerged with the 79-78 win. Twice Bama pulled ahead based on a flurry of 3-pointers by Brandon Miller and then Mark Sears, but Creighton kept fighting back behind Kaluma muscling to the hoop against Bama's tall but thin front court.

Bama built leads of 43-35 and with just five minutes to play 67-60.

Trey Alexander hit a 3-pointer to cut it to 67-63 and with five possessions (2:44) to play,Baylor Schelerman hit a 3-pointers to make it 72-71 Creighton. 

Both defenses locked down from then on, and noone scored another basket until the final possession for each team - which was actually extended to two possessions due to a foul. 

Kaluma was fouled to extend the game and hit two free throws to seemingly seal the game 77-72, but Brandon Moore started a wild sequence when he was fouled. Moore had been hitting 3-pointers, so it seemed the foul worked fine to only give him a chance at two points, but he hit the first free throw to make it 77-73 and missed the second free throw - which only the offensive power forward or center have a chance to get, and center Noah Clowney did get it and passed it to Charles Bediako, who scored for a unusual 3-point play to make it 77-75. 

Creighton then missed a shot on their last possession, which seemingly gave Bama one last chance to win - but backup point guard Shereef Mitchell, only in the game because Ryan Nembhard had fouled out earlier, grabbed a rare offensive rebound and laid it in to make it 79-75 Creighton. Creighton was lucky he did, and Bama's Mark Sears hit another 3-pointer at the end to make it a 79-78 final with Creighton advancing to our next round.

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