Sunday, March 30, 2025

KenPom Off/Def System 88,000th of 24,000,000 brackets or 99.6 percentile

 On March 16 we laid out the only system that we noted has "never missed," and that is the system based on a team needing to have high level balance - a top 25 defense at www.kenpomcom and a top 40 offense. We pointed out in more than 20 years since the kenpom system was developed, EVERY champion was a kenpom top 25/top40 team.

With Houston win we moved up to 88,000th or 99.6 percentile.


It will happen again, and the system we developed based on who has the highest level balance between offense and defense is the top system this year - in the 99.3 percentile.

The system picked 27 of 32 first round wins - which took picking 3 upsets correctly in #9 Baylor, #11 Drake and #12 Colorado State.

After the 2nd round still had 11 of 16 teams correct

Picked all eight teams correctly to go to the Elite 8 - with 3-seed Iowa State being the correct upset pick. This is where the system flagged 2-seed St. John's as not an Elite team because it was not balanced between offense and defense. St. John's defense was 1st, but offense was only 66th - so well outside the top 40 requirement to ne a contender.

The final 4 is chalk, as i said this year was the biggest gap between the four 1-seeds and everyone else, and if Auburn beats Michigan State it will be the 2nd time in 40 years that all four 1-seeds made the final 4.

Picked Saturday's winners in Florida and Duke - and has Auburn and Houston winning Sunday as we noted this was a year that the 1-seeds were way ahead of the rest.

More important, the two teams we picked in the system as our champion and runner-up both won Saturday to advance to the Final Four. If Florida does go all the way and Duke is runner-up the system would shoot even higher. Here is the bracket released then.







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