The potential for Point Guards to take over in March Madness let to a de ja vu moment when I ran my third model. Once again it showed a pointed to a Big East team not even in the top 20 at www.kenpom.com making a Final Four run due to having the best point guard in the country.
In 2011, I had other attendees at the MIT annual gathering of stat gurus tell me that the one thing keeping my Value Add Basketball from wide acceptance was my insistence on rating point guards using a different methodology than applied to other players. However, I stand by the formula I use, with is subtracting the turnover ratio from the assist ratio - particularly in the tournament when only the point guard can settle teammates into the game with assists to let them finish a basket and get into the game - and of course preventing turnovers.
That year I kept insisting point guard Kemba Walker was the best player in the country despite UConn entering the Big East tournament about where Marquette is - 26thin the nation so seemingly not a contender. But I was right and UConn won it all.
In 2014, Fox Sports and NBC Sports seemed even more shocked that I ranked another UConn point guard Shabazz Napier as the best player in the country - UConn entered the tournament 25th in the country in www.kenpom.com and once against shocked the world with a title.
Last week ran the calculations, and this time it is Marquette's point guard Kam Jones who is BY FAR the best point buard in the nation, and his Marquette team is 28th in www.kenpom.com, almost exactly where UConn was for those two title runs - and the model that adjusts for elite point guards calculates Marquette with a Final 4 run - ironically along with intrastate rival Wisconsin, though the title game forecast is Houston beating Florida for the title.
The first two methods I run are not bullish on Marquette beating Michigan State in the second round, so we will see. But I have seen this movie before, and this at least shows potential for a happy ending for Marquette.
The following is the bracket the model forecasts, followed by the list of each team in the same order and all 68 point guards and how much their play there helped or hurt the team's rating used to forecast results.
.png)
.png)
| South Upper | Seed | Wins w/ PG | PG Adj | PG Rank | PGs Take Over Bracket |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auburn | S1 | 3 | 95.4 | 41 | Tahaad Pettiford |
| St. Francis PA | S16 | 0 | 60.18 | 64 | Riley Parker |
| Alabama St. | S16 | 0 | 65.82 | 38 | CJ Hines |
| Louisville | S8 | 1 | 90.84 | 20 | Chucky Hepburn |
| Creighton | S9 | 0 | 89.96 | 12 | Steven Ashworth |
| Michigan | S5 | 1 | 87.42 | 48 | Tre Donaldson |
| UC San Diego | S12 | 0 | 82.7 | 46 | Hayden Gray |
| Texas A&M | S4 | 2 | 89.5 | 26 | Wade Taylor |
| Yale | S13 | 0 | 81.8 | 31 | Bez Mbeng |
| South Lower | Seed | ||||
| Mississippi | S6 | 0 | 87.66 | 32 | Jaylen Murray |
| San Diego State | S11 | 2 | 85.9 | 16 | Nick Boyd |
| North Carolina | S11 | 2 | 88.64 | 25 | Elliot Cadeau |
| Lipscomb | S14 | 73.1 | 36 | Joe Anderson | |
| Iowa St. | S3 | 1 | 85.16 | 57 | Tamin Lipsey |
| New Mexico | S10 | 87.3 | 6 | Donovan Dent | |
| Marquette | S7 | 4 | 97 | 1 | Kameron Jones |
| Michigan St. | S2 | 1 | 96.6 | 11 | Jeremy Fears |
| Bryant | S15 | 70.34 | 70 | Rafael Pinzon | |
| West Upper | Seed | 8 | Javon Small | ||
| Florida | W1 | 5 | 97.54 | 40 | Walter Clayton |
| Norfolk St. | W16 | 66.74 | 60 | Christian Ings | |
| Connecticut | W8 | 1 | 93.04 | 15 | Hassan Diarra |
| Oklahoma | W9 | 85 | 51 | Kobe Elvis | |
| Memphis | W5 | 81.02 | 58 | Tyrese Hunter | |
| Colorado St. | W12 | 1 | 83.32 | 63 | Kyan Evans |
| Maryland | W4 | 2 | 91.2 | 21 | Ja'Kobi Gillespie |
| Grand Canyon | W13 | 70.06 | 72 | Makaih Williams | |
| West Lower | Seed | ||||
| Missouri | W6 | 85.26 | 42 | Anthony Robinson | |
| Drake | W11 | 1 | 91.58 | 4 | Bennett Stirtz |
| Texas Tech | W3 | 2 | 93.32 | 13 | Elijah Hawkins |
| Unc Wilmington | W14 | 77.68 | 39 | Donovan Newby | |
| Kansas | W7 | 1 | 89.92 | 23 | Dajuan Harris |
| Arkansas | W10 | 82.46 | 62 | D.J. Wagner | |
| St. John's | W2 | 3 | 93.32 | 35 | Deivon Smith |
| Omaha | W15 | 71.18 | 14 | JJ White | |
| East Upper | Seed | ||||
| Duke | E1 | 4 | 94.28 | 49 | Sion James |
| Mount St. Mary's | E16 | 64.9 | 66 | Xavier Lipscomb | |
| American | E16 | 68.96 | 37 | Elijah Stephens | |
| Mississippi St. | E8 | 84.36 | 27 | Josh Hubbard | |
| Baylor | E9 | 1 | 90.22 | 28 | Robert Wright |
| Oregon | E5 | 2 | 86.72 | 53 | Jackson Shelstad |
| Liberty | E13 | 78.56 | 47 | Colin Porter | |
| Arizona | E4 | 1 | 85.3 | 56 | Jaden Bradley |
| Akron | E13 | 74.08 | 29 | Tavari Johnson | |
| East Lower | Seed | ||||
| BYU | E6 | 1 | 87.98 | 44 | Dallin Hall |
| VCU | E11 | 86.58 | 54 | Zeb Jackson | |
| Wisconsin | E3 | 3 | 88.84 | 45 | Kamari McGee |
| Montana | E14 | 76.14 | 50 | Money Williams | |
| Saint Mary's | E7 | 1 | 90.88 | 9 | Augustas Marciulionis |
| Vanderbilt | E10 | 86.48 | 19 | AJ Hoggard | |
| Alabama | E2 | 2 | 94.94 | 30 | Mark Sears |
| Robert Morris | E15 | 71.48 | 69 | DJ Smith | |
| Midwest Upper | Seed | ||||
| Houston | M1 | 6 | 98.62 | 18 | Milos Uzan |
| SIU Edwardsville | M16 | 69.38 | 34 | Ray'Sean Taylor | |
| Gonzaga | M8 | 1 | 96.72 | 3 | Ryan Nembhard |
| Georgia | M9 | 83.2 | 71 | Tyrin Lawrence | |
| Clemson | M5 | 1 | 85.6 | 61 | Chase Hunter |
| Mcneese St. | M12 | 83.06 | 22 | Quadir Copeland | |
| Purdue | M4 | 2 | 92.86 | 2 | Braden Smith |
| High Point | M13 | 79.76 | 17 | Bobby Pettiford | |
| Midwest Lower | Seed | ||||
| Illinois | M6 | 1 | 87.44 | 55 | Kasparas Jakucionis |
| Texas | M11 | 82.86 | 52 | Jordan Pope | |
| Xavier | M11 | 86.52 | 33 | Dayvion McKnight | |
| Kentucky | M3 | 2 | 92.78 | 24 | Lamont Butler |
| Troy St. | M14 | 77.74 | 10 | Tayton Conerway | |
| UCLA | M7 | 1 | 85.88 | 59 | Sebastian Mack |
| Utah St. | M10 | 80.04 | 65 | Deyton Albury | |
| Tennessee | M2 | 3 | 98.16 | 7 | Zakai Zeigler |
| Wofford | M15 | 73.12 | 43 | Corey Tripp |
No comments:
Post a Comment