65,721 of 24,400,000 (99.7 percentile) KenPom Bracket Based on Top 25 AdjD and Top 40 AdjO

The system bracket based on the fact that all national champs have had both a top 25 defense (AdjD) and top 40 offense (AdjO) at www.kenpom.com was published March 16 and now ranks in the 99.7 percentile - or the 65,721 most accurate of the 24.4 million submitted to ESPN.

On March 16 we called it the only system that we noted has "never missed,"

It correctly predicted that there was such a gap between the 1-seeds and everyone else that for only the 2nd time in 40 years, all 1-seeds would be in the Final 4. Tennessee actually was close to the other four, but well behind Houston who they would have had to beat to make it to the Final 4. There were 13 teams this year that qualified to be possible champs with a top 25 defense and top 40 offense, but their was a giant gap after the top five as  you can see from the graph of the formula.

We hate the ESPN scoring system calculation of the Final 4 games counting as much 16 first round games, and the championship game counts as much as all 32 first round games, but it is possible the system could get all of them as it has Duke beating Houston and Florida beating Auburn.

A perfect team would obviously be a team that was ranked No. 1 in both offense and defense, so we give 50 points per each and then since defense proves a bit more important than offense we subtract 1 point for every spot further down on offense and 1.6 points down for every spot on defense. Therefore while St. John's was No. 1 in the more important defense for 50 points, their No. 66 offensive rating gave them a -15 (65 points less than a perfect 50) so they were only ranked 22nd best and the one 1- or 2-seed that did not look close to an Elite team and thus the system correctly picked 3-seed Texas Tech for that spot.

The system picked 27 of 32 first round wins - which took picking 3 upsets correctly in #9 Baylor, #11 Drake and #12 Colorado State.

After the 2nd round still had 11 of 16 teams correct

As you can see from the bracket - the system picked all Elite 8 and Final 4 teams correctly.

It picks Duke to beat Houston and Florida to beat Auburn - although we actually subjectively picked Florida over Duke in the championship, and based on plays so far we might should have stuck to our numbers because Duke has looked more dominant than Florida in the system. Here is the bracket posted March 16 with winners added by ESPN.