Bracket 1 - Healthy / No Injuries - Duke beats Florida for Title (FF, Auburn & Houston)

Our first two brackets are the base line for all the others, because we start by looking at how good we believe each team is - with a healthy Duke team the standard this year as 100 points - and then how much we believe each team would average losing to a healthy Duke team (in this first bracket in which we pick assuming everyone list on our injured list is healthy and back to 100%, Florida is a "99" meaning we believe Duke would average beating Florida by 1 point.

Duke's first game will be against either American (a "69" so we expect Duke to win by 31 points) or Mount St. Mary's (a "71" if healthy so a 29 point underdog in our book - but they have a ken injury factor of their own). 

While Bracket 1 assumes all the injured players are fine, Bracket 2 next will assume they area all either out of the game or nursing injuries and not at 100%, so that will change who would win several games. After listing this bracket, I will list the key injured players we are monitoring, how many points losing them would cost the team, and then an adjusted bracket. But lets start on a happy note with all the players healthy:

No bury the lead on this one our next Bracket 2 if injured players are not back - Duke goes from looking like a National Champ 100 to a 92, which means eliminated in the Elite 8 like last year.

Midwest Lower	Seed	Wins if healthy	If Healthy	Injury updates on Minutes/Points in most recent games (this bracket assumes all healthy)
Duke	E1	6	100	Flagg 34/28,29/15,15/2,0/0,0/0; Brown 16/8, 0/0,0/0,0/0, drops to 92 if out, only wins 3 games then loses in Elite 8 if both out or struggling, and win 6 and national title if playing.
Florida	W1	5	99	Alexis 12/3, then 10 games out, drops to 97 if out.
Houston	M1	3	98	Roberts 38/11,18/2,0/0,0/0, drops to 94 if out.
Alabama	E2	3	96	Nelson 35/23,16/7,10/9, drops to 92 if out.
Kentucky	M3	2	94	Robinson 30/18,20/6,10 gms 12/7 total; out, Butler 32/15,26.5,26/8,8/2,0/0, drops to 88 if out and loses first game.
Texas Tech	W3	2	93	McMilan (25/15,32/9,13/0,0/0), Williams (33/14, 0/0), drops to 87 if out and loses to Drake.
Iowa St.	S3	2	91	Lipsey 29/16,0/0; Gilbert 43/13,0/0,11/3,0/0, drops to 85 if out.
Baylor	E9	2	91	Love 26/10,13/2,0/0, drops to 87 if out.
Louisville	S8	1	91	Smith 34/8,6/0,0/0,0/0,0/0,0/0, drops ot 86 if out and does not lose any games.
BYU	E6	1	90	Catchings 15/4,then next 6 games 14/0 total, drops to 88 if out, and loses 1st game to VCU.
Clemson	M5	2	90	D. Hunter 26/3,13/2,9/0,0/0 out broken hand, drops to 88 if out.
Kansas	W7	0	89	Moore 14/6, then seven 0/0, drops to 87 if out and if Arkansas Healty loses to them.
Oregon	E5	1	89	No injuries, but if Love out for Baylor then Oregon wins that game too.
Arkansas	W10	1	89	Thiero 31/16,26/11 then 6 games out; Fland 38/19,33/4, then 15 gms out. Drops to 87 if out.
Drake	W11	1	87	No injuries, if Texas Tech players out thenalso beats them for 2 wins.
Creighton	S9	0	87	Zugic - 25/13, 9/4, 2/0, drops to 86 if out. But if Smith is out for Louisville in 1st game, then wins that game.
Memphis	W5	0	86	Hunter 33/16,33/8,23/7,0/0, Harris 11/17,20/6, then 8 game total 24/4. Drops to 82 if out.
Mount St. Mary's	E16	0	71	Pacheco 37/17,6/3,0/0,0/0 ,0/0; Ard 26/13,3/0,0/0,0/0,0/0,0/0,0/0,0/0, drops to 67 if out.

If you have any trouble reading the teams on the bracket above, you can also look down the list of the same names in the same order, and see the number of wins to determine how many lines to type them on in your bracket.

South Upper	Seed	Wins if healthy	Rating if healthy	Injury updates on Minutes/Points in most recent games (this bracket assumes all healthy)
Auburn	S1	4	96
St. Francis PA	S16	0	64
Alabama St.	S16	0	66
Louisville	S8	1	91	Smith 34/8,6/0,0/0,0/0,0/0,0/0, drops ot 86 if out and does not lose any games.
Creighton	S9	0	87	Zugic - 25/13, 9/4, 2/0, drops to 86 if out. But if Smith is out for Louisville in 1st game, then wins that game.
Michigan	S5	2	89
UC San Diego	S12	0	84
Texas A&M	S4	1	88
Yale	S13	0	81
South Lower	Seed	Wins if healthy	If Healthy	Injury updates on Minutes/Points in most recent games (this bracket assumes all healthy)
Mississippi	S6	0	87
San Diego State	S11	1	83
North Carolina	S11	1	87
Iowa St.	S3	2	91	Lipsey 29/16,0/0; Gilbert 43/13,0/0,11/3,0/0, drops to 85 if out.
Lipscomb	S14	0	73
New Mexico	S10	0	83
Marquette	S7	1	92
Michigan St.	S2	3	93
Bryant	S15	0	75
West Upper	Seed	Wins if healthy	If Healthy	Injury updates on Minutes/Points in most recent games (this bracket assumes all healthy)
Florida	W1	5	99	Alexis 12/3, then 10 games out, drops to 97 if out.
Norfolk St.	W16	0	70
Connecticut	W8	1	90
Oklahoma	W9	0	87
Memphis	W5	0	86	Hunter 33/16,33/8,23/7,0/0, Harris 11/17,20/6, then 8 game total 24/4. Drops to 82 if out.
Colorado St.	W12	1	87
Maryland	W4	2	89
Grand Canyon	W13	0	75
West Lower	Seed	Wins if healthy	If Healthy	Injury updates on Minutes/Points in most recent games (this bracket assumes all healthy)
Missouri	W6	0	86
Drake	W11	1	87	No injuries, if Texas Tech players out thenalso beats them for 2 wins.
Texas Tech	W3	2	93	McMilan (25/15,32/9,13/0,0/0), Williams (33/14, 0/0), drops to 87 if out and loses to Drake.
Unc Wilmington	W14	0	78
Kansas	W7	0	89	Moore 14/6, then seven 0/0, drops to 87 if out and if Arkansas Healty loses to them.
Arkansas	W10	1	89	Thiero 31/16,26/11 then 6 games out; Fland 38/19,33/4, then 15 gms out. Drops to 87 if out.
St. John's	W2	3	93
Omaha	W15	0	68
East Upper	Seed	Wins if healthy	If Healthy	Injury updates on Minutes/Points in most recent games (this bracket assumes all healthy)
Duke	E1	6	100	Flagg 34/28,29/15,15/2,0/0,0/0; Brown 16/8, 0/0,0/0,0/0, drops to 92 if out, only wins 3 games then loses in Elite 8 if both out or struggling, and win 6 and national title if playing.
Mount St. Mary's	E16	0	71	Pacheco 37/17,6/3,0/0,0/0 ,0/0; Ard 26/13,3/0,0/0,0/0,0/0,0/0,0/0,0/0, drops to 67 if out.
American	E16	0	69
Mississippi St.	E8	0	83
Baylor	E9	1	91	Love 26/10,13/2,0/0, drops to 87 if out.
Oregon	E5	2	89
Liberty	E13	0	80
Arizona	E4	1	88
Akron	E13	0	73
East Lower	Seed	Wins if healthy	If Healthy	Injury updates on Minutes/Points in most recent games (this bracket assumes all healthy)
BYU	E6	1	90	Catchings 15/4,then next 6 games 14/0 total, drops to 88 if out, and loses 1st game to VCU.
VCU	E11	0	89
Wisconsin	E3	2	90
Montana	E14	0	78
Saint Mary's	E7	1	87
Vanderbilt	E10	0	84
Alabama	E2	3	96	Nelson 35/23,16/7,10/9, drops to 92 if out.
Robert Morris	E15	0	76
Midwest Upper	Seed	Wins if healthy	If Healthy	Injury updates on Minutes/Points in most recent games (this bracket assumes all healthy)
Houston	M1	3	98	Roberts 38/11,18/2,0/0,0/0, drops to 94 if out.
SIU Edwardsville	M16	0	69
Gonzaga	M8	1	92
Georgia	M9	0	88
Clemson	M5	2	90	D. Hunter 26/3,13/2,9/0,0/0 out broken hand, drops to 88 if out.
Mcneese St.	M12	0	81
Purdue	M4	1	88
High Point	M13	0	77
Midwest Lower	Seed	Wins if healthy	If Healthy	Injury updates on Minutes/Points in most recent games (this bracket assumes all healthy)
Illinois	M6	1	90
Texas	M11	0	85
Xavier	M11	0	86
Kentucky	M3	2	94	Robinson 30/18,20/6,10 gms 12/7 total; out, Butler 32/15,26.5,26/8,8/2,0/0, drops to 88 if out and loses first game.
Troy St.	M14	0	74
UCLA	M7	1	89
Utah St.	M10	0	84
Tennessee	M2	4	94
Wofford	M15	0	74