Wednesday, September 13, 2023

Updated All-Time Basketball Ratings with Some Corrected Formulas

With only a few teams that have not yet played their first Value Add Basketball Game against another great all-time team, we cleaned up a couple of items in our Ken Pomeroy like numbers and reran them. The AdjEM is calculated similar to how Ken Pomeroy does it with a couple of tweaks.

1. The starting AdjEM is the average points better or worse than the average great team in this game we would expect the team to perform based on the numbers on their cards.  If we calculated a number based on the average overall team rather than the average great team in this game, then these would be a little more than 20 points higher than what is listed. So Bill Walton's UCLA would be expected to beat the average team in the game by 14.7 points, but win by more than 35 against the average team.

2. While the starting number is how good the team calculates based on their cards, we count that starting number as three "game scores" and then every game we play we adjust by the result. teams can get upset with dice just as they can with a bad night in a real game, so teams move up and down based on their opponents AdjEM as reflected in their average SoS, and then the margin of the game. We did tweak to allow allow credit for up to a 20-point win. We also now give an extra 4 points for who actually won the game, which Pomeroy does not do. So in our games it is a much bigger deal to win by 1 point rather than lose by 1 point (a 10 point difference in the game score) while in Pomeroy's ratings that would just be a 2-point difference.

Obviously with only a few games played for each team, a couple of big upsets can put a team way above or below they would really rank all-time. The recent Colorado team pulled off two stunning upsets in my game so they shot into the top 40 as a prime example, but that's the fun of upsets. The teams rise or fall with every game result and we are on no deadline - just like seeing what made everyone of these teams great. Likely the two somewhat surprising under performances so far are for two of the teams we still believe could end up near the top if we get in enough games, Anthony Davis Kentucky and Kareem's UCLA.

Keep in mind we do put extra emphasis on how players performed in the tournament, so the complete dominance of UConn this year, Justise Winslow's Duke in 2015 and Villanova in 2018 make their stats for the overall season - as opposed to Statis-Pro and other baseball games when only regular season stats are factored.

Here are our current rankings of the great teams in the game, and this is also kept up along with all of our game scores on this google sheet.

RnkTeam and Player You Might KnowWinLossScoreAllowSoSAdjEM
1UCLA - 1972 - Bill Walton6072.062.0-0.514.7
2Kansas - 1997 - Paul Pierce5076.862.4-1.013.4
3Kansas - 2008 - Mario Chalmers5174.756.0-0.713.0
4Duke - 2001 - Shane Battier3178.372.54.812.3
5Indiana - 1976 - Scott May3171.359.8-0.812.0
6Duke - 2015 - Justise Winslow00   10.2
7North Carolina - 1982 - Michael Jordan5168.865.04.010.0
8Ohio St. - 1960 - Jerry Lucas2184.076.34.79.3
9North Carolina - 2005 - Sean May3272.264.42.09.1
10Villanova - 2018 - Mikal Bridges7279.470.30.18.7
11Kentucky - 1996 - Antoine Walker2172.069.33.38.7
12Connecticut - 2023 - Adama Sanogo00   8.5
13Houston - 1968 - Elvin Hayes3173.063.81.38.4
14Arkansas - 1994 - Corliss Williamson1275.370.38.08.2
15Connecticut - 2004 - Ben Gordon5274.766.00.77.5
16Gonzaga - 2017 - Nigel Williams-Goss3369.863.03.07.4
17Baylor - 2021 - Jared Butler2286.078.54.87.4
18Louisville - 2013 - Russ Smith2174.066.31.77.3
19Virginia - 2019 - Kyle Guy4172.665.42.47.0
20Duke - 2010 - Jon Scheyer5274.066.70.16.7
21Kentucky - 2012 - Anthony Davis4272.265.7-4.76.6
22NC State - 1974 - David Thompson2172.072.74.36.5
23Duke - 1992 - Christian Laettner1273.770.31.06.5
24Kansas - 2022 - Ochai Agbaji1087.081.0-7.96.1
25UCLA - 1967 - Kareem Abdul-Jabbar2183.087.0-2.05.7
26Cincinnati - 1960 - Oscar Robertson1272.378.08.35.7
27DePaul - 1980 - Mark Aguirre3176.868.83.55.1
28Purdue - 2018 - Carsen Edwards4171.268.82.85.1
29Wake Forest - 1996 - Tim Duncan2166.064.76.04.3
30UNLV - 1991 - Larry Johnson1272.776.30.74.3
31Michigan St. - 1979 - Magic Johnson2170.362.7-2.34.3
32Houston - 1983 - Hakeem Olajuwon2170.765.0-0.34.3
33Auburn - 2019 - Chuma Okeke8171.065.3-2.64.2
34Illinois - 2005 - Deron Williams3272.069.61.24.0
35Michigan St. - 2000 - Mateen Cleaves4179.677.2-1.63.5
36Colorado - 2021 - McKinley Wright3082.378.0-0.33.3
37Wisconsin - 2015 - Frank Kaminsky2265.063.31.03.3
38Alabama - 2023 - Brandon Miller00   3.2
39Rutgers - 1976 - Phil Sellers1097.077.0-9.03.0
40Michigan - 1965 - Cazzie Russell2185.779.0-1.03.0
41Oregon - 2017 - Dillon Brooks4371.969.91.62.9
42Syracuse - 2003 - Carmelo Anthony2176.074.03.02.7
43Gonzaga - 2023 - Drew Timme1086.074.0-6.72.5
44Memphis - 2008 - Derrick Rose4268.765.8-0.32.4
45Texas - 2023 - Marcus Carr00   2.4
46Iowa - 2021 - Luka Garza1179.570.5-3.52.4
47Oklahoma - 1985 - Wayman Tisdale3175.373.81.82.1
48Arizona - 2015 - Stanley Johnson3175.370.5-6.02.0
49Loyola Marymount - 1990 - Bo Kimble12112.3108.32.31.8
50North Carolina - 1998 - Vince Carter2180.783.7-3.01.7
51Cincinnati - 2002 - Jason Maxiell2272.871.5-1.51.6
52Indiana - 1981 - Isaiah Thomas2172.772.30.01.3
53Michigan St. - 2009 - Draymond Green6371.371.91.61.0
54Illinois - 1989 - Nick Anderson2187.084.0-5.30.8
55Georgetown - 1984 - Patrick Ewing2167.365.30.00.7
56Seton Hall - 1989 - John Morton1178.078.01.50.6
57Michigan - 1989 - Glen Rice0270.578.53.00.6
58Arizona - 1997 - Mike Bibby2168.771.0-1.00.5
59USC - 2021 - Evan Mobley2173.770.7-4.30.3
60Michigan - 2013 - Trey Burke1270.369.70.30.3
61Houston - 2021 - Quentin Grimes00   0.2
62Duke - 2022 - Wendell Moore00   0.2
63Texas Tech - 2019 - Jarrett Culver3265.667.20.80.0
64Syracuse - 1987 - Rony Seikaly2172.368.7-2.00.0
65Murray St. - 2019 - Ja Morant 00   0.0
66Loyola-Chicago - 1963 - Jerry Harkness0162.068.0-2.00.0
67LSU - 1992 - Shaquille O'Neal1182.581.0-5.0-0.2
68Jacksonville - 1970 - Artis Gilmore1178.075.0-2.0-0.2
69San Francisco - 1956 - Bill Russell0167.074.04.0-0.3
70Ohio St. - 2007 - Greg Oden2370.271.40.6-0.5
71UTEP (Texas Western) - 1966 - Bobby Joe Hill2163.766.06.7-0.7
72Pittsburgh - 2009 - DeJuan Blair1360.062.32.3-0.7
73Marquette - 1977 - Butch Lee and Bo Ellis1166.061.5-5.0-0.8
74Washington - 2006 - Brandon Roy00   -0.8
75Tennessee - 2023 - Santiago Vescovi00   -0.8
76Florida State - 1993 - Charlie Ward00   -0.8
77Marquette - 2003 - Dwyane Wade2273.374.00.0-0.9
78Florida - 2006 - Joakim Noah5374.472.0-4.6-0.9
79Miami - 2013 - Shane Larkin00   -1.0
80Marquette - 1971 - Jim Chones1270.072.73.0-1.0
81Purdue - 1969 - Rick Mount0186.087.0-2.0-1.0
82Connecticut - 1999 - Richard Hamilton0260.573.05.0-1.0
83Georgia Tech - 2004 - Jarrett Jack2362.667.43.8-1.1
84Georgetown - 2007 - Roy Hibbert1276.775.3-1.7-1.3
85SMU - 2017 - Semi Ojeleye00   -1.4
86Duke - 1986 - Johnny Dawkins01106.0108.0-6.0-1.5
87Missouri - 1982 - Steve Stipanovich2173.773.3-1.7-1.7
88Marquette - 2023 - Tyler Kolek1090.081.0-1.8-1.7
89Kansas - 1957 - Wilt Chamberlain1167.574.02.0-1.8
90Creighton - 2023 - Ryan Kalkbrenner00   -1.8
91Boston College - 2006 - Jared Dudley00   -1.8
92Arkansas - 2021 - JD Notae00   -1.9
93San Diego St. - 2023 - Jaedon LeDee00   -2.0
94Iowa St. - 2014 - DeAndre Kane00   -2.3
95Miami - 2023 - Norchad Omier00   -2.6
96Maryland - 1984 - Len Bias1169.568.51.5-2.6
97St. John's - 1985 - Chris Mullin0175.076.00.0-2.8
98Stanford - 2008 - Brook Lopez00   -2.8
99Penn St. - 2018 - Tony Carr00   -2.8
100San Diego St. - 2011 - Kawhi Leonard2269.371.8-0.3-2.9
101Kansas St. - 2023 - Markquis Nowell00   -2.9
102Kansas St. - 2008 - Michael Beasley1175.075.50.5-3.0
103Oklahoma St. - 2004 - John Lucas1368.871.0-1.5-3.3
104St. Mary's - 2023 - Logan Johnson00   -3.3
105South Carolina - 2017 - Sindarius Thornwell1265.365.7-2.0-3.3
106Marquette - 1994 - Jim McIlvaine1080.078.0-1.4-3.4
107Seton Hall - 2020 - Myles Powell0178.080.0-3.4-3.4
108Northwestern - 2017 - Vic Law00   -3.8
109Dayton - 2020 - Obi Toppin1181.580.5-4.0-3.8
110Indiana - 2002 - Jared Jeffries1367.372.81.3-4.0
111Minnesota - 1977 - Kevin McHale1169.568.5-3.0-4.2
112Kentucky - 1948 - Alex Groza1171.081.53.0-4.2
113Maryland - 2002 - Juan Dixon1367.076.30.8-4.7
114UNLV - 1987 - Armen Gilliam0164.082.0-6.0-4.8
115DePaul - 1945 - George Mikan0151.055.07.0-4.8
116Central Florida - 2019 - Joey Graham00   -4.8
117West Virginia - 2010 - Kevin Jones1370.376.00.0-4.9
118Oklahoma - 2016 - Buddy Hield1360.367.31.3-4.9
119Florida Atlantic - 2023 - Johnell Davis00   -4.9
120Xavier - 2023 - Jack Nunge00   -5.0
121Iowa - 2002 - Reggie Evans1271.075.31.7-5.0
122Holy Cross - 1950 - Bob Cousy1188.089.5-2.0-5.0
123St. Joe's - 2004 - Jameer Nelson1268.375.7-1.7-5.2
124Utah - 1998 - Andre Miller0169.079.0-4.0-5.3
125UCLA - 2021 - Jaime Jaquez0181.090.0-2.9-5.3
126UCLA - 2006 - Jordan Farmar2366.072.40.4-5.4
127Oklahoma St. - 1946 - Bob Kurland0180.082.0-10.0-5.5
128St. Bonaventure - 1970 - Bob Lanier0164.074.0-6.0-5.8
129California - 1959 - Jack Grout0169.071.0-2.0-5.8
130Virginia - 1981 - Ralph Sampson0161.072.0-3.0-6.0
131Texas - 2003 - T.J. Ford1268.776.3-1.0-6.0
132Tennessee - 1977 - Bernard King1176.083.01.0-6.0
133Seattle - 1958 - Elgin Baylor0162.064.00.0-6.0
134Georgia Tech - 1990 - Dennis Scott0164.082.01.0-6.0
135Wichita St. - 2013 - Fred VanVleet1264.371.31.7-6.3
136Davidson - 2008 - Stephen Curry1566.770.80.7-6.4
137Alabama - 1977 - Reggie King0170.071.0-3.0-6.5
138TCU - 2023 - JaKobe Coles00   -6.7
139Notre Dame - 1981 - Orlando Woolridge0168.074.04.0-6.8
140North Carolina - 2022 - Armando Bacot00   -6.8
141LSU - 2006 - Glen Davis1266.375.0-0.7-6.8
142Marquette - 2011 - Jimmy Butler0182.087.0-1.0-7.0
143South Carolina - 1973 - Mike Dunleavy0166.072.06.0-7.8
144Stephen f austin - 2016 - Thomas Walkup0194.095.0-2.0-8.0
145Kansas - 1988 - Danny Manning0158.067.0-4.0-8.0
146Indiana St. - 1979 - Larry Bird0169.076.0-3.0-8.0
147Notre Dame - 1970 - Austin Carr1167.076.51.0-8.2
148Auburn - 1984 - Charles Barkley1171.577.0-3.5-8.4
149Wyoming - 1943 - Ken Sailors0160.073.01.0-8.5
150West Virginia - 1959 - Jerry West0168.069.0-8.0-8.5
151La Salle - 1954 - Tom Gola0167.076.0-3.0-8.5
152Brigham Young - 1981 - Danny Ainge0167.077.00.0-8.8
153Virginia Tech - 1986 - Dell Curry0181.087.07.4-8.8
154Nebraska - 2014 - Terran Petteway00   -8.8
155Marquette - 1955 - Terry Rand0174.086.00.2-9.0
156North Carolina - 1957 - Lennie Rosenbluth0176.089.0-1.0-9.0
157Villanova - 1985 - Ed Pinckney0165.072.0-2.0-9.3
158Navy - 1986 - David Robinson0161.077.04.0-9.3
159Georgia - 1982 - Dominique Wilkins1170.078.0-1.0-9.6
160George Mason - 2006 - Jai Lewis0359.367.00.3-9.7
161Kentucky - 1970 - Dan Issel01116.0138.0-4.0-9.8
162Murray St. - 2019 - Ja Morant00   -9.8
163Arizona St. - 1980 - Byron Scott0164.079.02.0-10.3
164Wake Forest - 2005 - Chris Paul0364.385.34.3-10.3
165Creighton - 2014 - Doug McDermott0366.380.0-1.3-10.5
166Arkansas - 1978 - Sidney Moncrief0158.079.0-2.0-10.5
167Creighton - 2020 - Ty-Shon Alexander0172.0106.08.0-11.3
168Louisville - 1980 - Darrell Griffith0152.082.03.0-11.5
169Dayton - 1967 - Don May0169.088.01.0-11.5
170LSU - 1970 - Pete Maravich0166.067.01.0-12.3
171VCU - 2011 - Bradford Burgess0360.371.31.0-13.0
172Clemson - 1987- Horace Grant0177.097.0-1.0-13.0
173Princeton - 1965 - Bill Bradley0162.079.0-3.0-13.5
174Butler - 2010 - Gordon Hayward0354.776.34.3-13.7
175Loyola-Chicago - 2018 - Cameron Krutwig0359.375.01.7-14.0
176Miami FL - 1965 - Rick Berry01104.0108.0-16.0-15.0
177Niagara - 1970 - Calvin Murphy0168.084.06.0-16.3
178Princeton - 2023 - Tosan Evbuomwan00   -16.8
179St. Peter's - 2022 - Doug Edert00   -18.8

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