Friday, September 22, 2023

Can Anyone Stop Indiana State's Bird or UCF's 7'6 Tacko Fall? Final added - 74-70 ISU

Post game update: Scroll to the bottom for the scoresheet on Indiana State's 74-70 survival against UCF. Larry Bird was a perfect 4 of 4 on 3-pointers for a game-high 16 points, but that was well below his average in 1979. He was guarded by Johnny Dawkins son and Michigan transfer Aubrey Dawkins and 7-foot-6 Tacko Fall rejected two of Bird's shots among Fall's six blocks in the Value Add Basketball Game matchup.

However it was the other NBA player on the court in Indiana State point guard Carl Nicks who stole the ball after a UCF offensive rebound with less than a minute left and a 72-70 score. UCF then had to use the "turnover or foul" defense to keep the game from ending. It was Nick's who they fouled after failing to get a steal, and despite being only an average free throw shooter (1-13 made in 20-side die or 65%) Nick's sank them both for the 74-70 final and UCF's final jumper at the horn was no good but irrelevant.

Indiana State advances with the win and will definitely be one of the top 11 seeds remaining so will get a bye to the third round while the 12th to 21st best first round winners will play in the 2nd round to make the Sweet 16.

The following was written before the game, and the scoresheet is at the bottom.

Pre game write up

Perhaps the most fun match-up in the first round of our current 42-team tournament is Indiana State's 1979 Runner-up team vs. Central Florida's (UCF).

For the set-up, Bird may have the best card in the entire Value Add Basketball Game. His "Gets ball on: 3 SF 6&8" means he gets the ball on three numbers on the 8-sided die, or 37.5 percent of the time, and once he gets it he hits a 3-pointer 30% of the time (1-6 on the 20-sided die). Keep in mind that doesnt mean he misses 70% of 3sz but rather 6 of 20 times he gets the ball in the game he makes a 3. Bird is an incredible rebounder on offense and defense (1-8) and has the max steals (11-20 which is the same as 11-16, 31 All) and almost as good at blocking shots (21-26). With the dunk range of 51-56 that could be the best offensive card in the game.

However, Indiana State is only a fair defensive team (+0 on dunk adjustment) and will need to go up against the only player who scores or is fouled on 17 numbers on the 20-sided die in Fall. He makes a 2-point shot on 1-11 and is fouled on 12-17, only missing a shot on an 18-20. His offensive rebound range of 1-9 means anytime a rebound comes up as "high on court" he would grab the rebound even over Larry Bird's defensive 1-8. He never steals the ball, but he does have the maximum blocked shot range of 21-26, 32 all (listed as 21-30 on some teams) which means he blocks a shot on the opposing center on 21-26 and when anyone in the game shoots on a 32. 

At first glance, someone might think his card would produce even more points than Bird's because of only missing on 3 numbers out of 20, but actually it is great but not nearly as great s Bird's for three reasons. First, his stamina is 30 of 44 possessions, so like many big men he is not on the court as much as Bird's 37 of 44. Second, while he goes to the foul line a lot, his free throws made are only good on a 1-7 out of 20 for a 35% free throw range. Finally Central Florida's 51-51 dunk range makes for a very low overall offensive rating due to lighter opponents during the year compared to Indiana State's 51-56 for a high powered overall offense.

Due to Central Florida's tough defense (-2) they hold Indiana State's dunk range down to 51-54, while Indiana State's weaker defense of 0 leaves Central Florida's dunk range for the game at 51-51.

We showed Indiana State's player cards at the top. Below that are the list of Offensive (Adj0) and Defensive (AdjD) overall point expectations of cards, with Indiana State at 1.14 points per trip in the game, and defense (AdjD) at 0.98. UCF is a weaker offense (1.03) but better defense (0.93).  Finaly for the stat nerds we include the calculation of both teams dunk range with formulas available in this google sheet.

We set up the box score at the bottom and will fill it in after the game.

Game Results to follow with conclusion of game.

Box Score. Next to each player there are 4 numbers for points, rebounds, steals and blocked shots. For Bird that was 16 points, 5 rebounds, 2 steals and 1 block. For Fall that was 12 points, 8 rebounds, 0 steals and 6 blocks.

Pos        Central Florida 2019      Season Stats                          Ht   Pts   Reb   Stl   Blk   Foul
1-PGTerrell Allen6.7 Pts, 3.2 Reb, 4.3 Ast6'3     
2-SGB.J. Taylor15.9 Pts, 2.3 Reb, 3.2 Ast6'2     
3-SFAubrey Dawkins15.6 Pts, 5.0 Reb, 1.4 Ast6'6     
4-PFCollin Smith8.0 Pts, 5.2 Reb, 1.5 Ast6'11     
5-CTacko Fall11.1 Pts, 7.6 Reb, 0.5 Ast7'6     
1-PGFrank Bertz3.1 Pts, 1.4 Reb, 0.5 Ast6'5     
2-SGCeasar DeJesus3.4 Pts, 0.9 Reb, 0.7 Ast6'2     
3-SFChance McSpadden0.9 Pts, 1.9 Reb, 0.4 Ast6'4     
4-PFDayon Griffin4.6 Pts, 2.1 Reb, 1.1 Ast6'4     
5-CChad Brown4.5 Pts, 5.0 Reb, 0.4 Ast6'9     
PosIndiana State 1979Season StatsHtPtsRebStlBlkFoul
1-PGCarl Nicks19.3 Pts, 3.5 Reb, 5.0 Ast6'1     
2-SGBob Heaton7.3 Pts, 3.3 Reb, 1.8 Ast6'5     
3-SFLarry Bird28.6 Pts, 14.9 Reb, 5.5 Ast6'9     
4-PFLeroy Staley7.0 Pts, 3.5 Reb, 0.7 Ast6'4     
5-CAlex Gilbert9.6 Pts, 6.1 Reb, 0.4 Ast6'7     
1-PGSteve Reed5.0 Pts, 1.9 Reb, 7.0 Ast6'3     
2-SGRich Nemcek1.7 Pts, 1.0 Reb, 0.6 Ast6'6     
3-SFScott Turner2.1 Pts, 1.1 Reb, 0.3 Ast6'5     
4-PFBrad Miley5.7 Pts, 6.0 Reb, 1.6 Ast6'8     
5-CTom Crowder1.9 Pts, 1.3 Reb, 0.2 Ast6'5    

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