Sunday, September 24, 2023

Verified Offensive And Defensive Ratings Added to Top of Teams - UConn 2023 vs. St. Peter's vs 2022

We have started to go through all of the team sheets to verify any tweaks needed to the dunk ranges, and to make it easier when you play the game we are listing a line across the top of the team sheet as shown below. 

We have made it through the first 27 pages of List A, listing the Offensive Rating (AdjO) and Defensive Rating (AdjD) of each team, and then to combined Game Rating - which is the first number minus the second number times 100 and then minus 17. The + or - number tells you how many points per 100 possessions each team is better or worse than the average team in the game.

If we have actually verified the exact numbers for a given team using the dunk calculator, like with the top seed in our current tournament (defending champions UConn) and their first tournament opponent (St. Peter's Cinderella Final 4 team from 2022) then we put "Verified" to let you now there will be no changes for cards. However, we applied our advanced calculations to see which cards will likely need an adjustment, and in those cases such as California 1959 where we realize the team will probably be upgraded about 3 numbers on the dunk range - in those cases we do what they did on their cards below - put in a temporary adjustment of California's cards from a 51-53 dunk range to a 51-56 range.

Because there is a 31 point gap between UConn and St. Peter's ranks we would expect UConn to be about 31 points better per 100 trips. Of course, basketball games only last about 2/3rds that many possessions, so we might peg UConn as a 20 point favorite.

After three straight tournament games coming down to the wire, we will see if our top seed can handle our bottom seed more easily - or if this will be another UVA vs. last seed.

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