This post is more for fellow nerds as I prepare to play my next Value Add Basketball Game - Coach K's last national champions (Duke 2015) vs. Nebraska's only team to make the tournament this century - from the year before Duke's title in 2014.
We originally allowed only one team from each century for each school, but added yet another Duke team when we went through the greatest teams left out so far - though still limiting to just a few teams from each school in our 179 great all time teams. When the 2024 conference realignment was decided we would make sure every team in one of the big five conferences - the Power 5 football plus the basketball-only Big East - and 2014 was the team we chose for Nebraska.
The year before we went through the last couple of tournaments and picked a number of new teams starting with Ja LaMont's 2019 Murray State team.
Having now added teams in a few waves, we wanted to also go back through and apply the exact same criteria for calculating the Dunk Ranges and defensive equivalent Adj Dunk Range. These are the most important final stat because they adjust for eras of play, and level of competition. Without the dunk range a team with the exact same stats playing SWAC opponents would have the exact same cards as a team with the exact same stats playing in a power conference. The dunk range calibrates very accurately to adjust for how each player would likely do playing against average competition.
We have not detailed how these are calculated until this blog. For starters, this google sheet contains all the calculations that go into the calculations. We are as precise in this as we were in determine that if a team is at home in a game then letting them flip any die result of 36 or 66 for the other would on average adjust to give the home team a 3 point a game advantage in an average game of rolls.
While we are going through the cards using the google sheet above to adjust teams dunk ranges, you can still keep playing with current cards. Only the dunk ranges and adj opp dunk ranges will be adjusted.
To show you the process, we will start with the Duke 2015 cards and calculations.
Next we go to their opponent, Nebraska 2014. After all the same steps, Nebraska's dunk range was lowered from a 51-54 dunk range to no dunk range (which we list as 51-50 meaning no numbers to get to their target 0.98 efficiency, which is very weak in the game.
Their adjust dunk opponent range was -1 and that turned out to calculate perfectly to get them to the target 0.98 so no change was made to the card.