Friday, February 24, 2023

OSU Upset Bid Stopped by Best Player in World - A'ja Wilson; Final Bracket Set

 The 2016 Ohio State women trailed only 53-52 with 8:17 (14 possessions to play), then they ran into a wall named A'ja Wilson. The college player of the year in 2018 and WNBA player of the year in 2020 and 2022 blocked shots on three of the next four Ohio State trips down the court. The games are played using the free Value Add Basketball Game.

Then with 7 possessions left the South Carolina star scored off an offensive rebound, the immediately stole a pass and laid it in to make it 66-56. The next trip she grabbed another offensive rebound and was fouled and converted a free throw to make it 69-57.

South Carolina won 79-68 in the last home game of the tournament. The last 9 games will be in a neutral court. The next game will be a USC vs USC game as South Carolina plays Cheryl Miller's Lady Trojans of 1983. The 10 teams who won their first game now advance into this bracket:

Here are the first round results. Based on the margins we expected based on the cards, we expected the 10 favored home teams to go 8.6 - 1.4 and win by an average of 17.8 points in these first 10 games. In fact, they did go 9-1, but winning by an average of six points less - by 11.7 points per game including the negative 7 for the Notre Dame upset.

1st Round All-Time Women's TournamentHome FavoredPercentActual Score
#20 Long Beach St. 1987 at #1 Connecticut 20163499%UConn wins 98-53
#19 Duke 2006 at #2 Connecticut 20103299%UConn wins 75-66
#18 Old Dominion 1980 at #3 Tennessee 19983199%Tennessee wins 80-55
#17 Texas 2018 at #4 Louisiana Tech 19822598%La Tech wins 84-62
#16 Louisville 2014 at #5 Baylor 20191489%Baylor wins 76-69
#15 Oregon 2019 at #6 Baylor 20121387%Baylor wins 84-81
#14 Washington 2017 at #7 USC 1983979%USC wins 65-57
#13 Mississippi St. 2018 at #8 Stanford 2021979%Stanford wins 74-58
#12 Notre Dame 2018 at #9 Texas A&M 2011772%ND wins 76-69
#11 Ohio St. 2016 at #10 South Carolina 2017463%SC wins 79-68
Expected ave. margin for favorite 17.8 pts, actual 11.717.88.6Favorites Expected Record 8.6 - 1.4, Actual 9-1

Oregon 2019 and Washington 2017 might have won their games on a neutral court, but the first round the better seeds received home court advantage. In the game the home team can switch defensive rolls form 36 to 66 or vice versa. The rest of the games are neutral court.

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