Oops - Redo for UVa Women 2019 as we left Dominique Toussaint's card out

Well, that's embarrassing. We need to replay the game we just completed - 1995 UConn vs. 2018 Virginia, since we accidentally left the playing card for UVa's leading scorer Dominique Toussaint out of the game. See image of the updated team cards at the bottom of the blog. Jocelyn Willoughby was actually UVa's best player.

One reason we are trying to slowly get through and play each team in the Value Add Basketball Game at least once is to catch any mistakes in our player cards. We just hit a big one - as we realized only after playing 2018 Virginia against 1995 UConn that as hard as it is for any team to have a chance against the great UConn teams- its even harder without your leading scorer. 

This is particularly harmful in this case because the UVa 2018 women were 239th in scoring nationally even with Toussaint putting in her double figures. No, men's coach Tony Bennett was not also coaching the UVa women with his slow, methodical offense, it was Joanne Boyle wrapping up a solid coaching career that had nice teams at Richmond, Cal and finally Virginia. 

Her defensive mindset certainly carried over to another defense-first team on UVa's campus. The funny thing was this was the season that Bennett was coaching UVa to the national title, but the following Covid-year the UVa men were 239th in offense so the "Grounds" at UVa witnessed some of the lowest scoring wins in the nation between the men and women.

To say Boyle had been Duke's best player would be an understatement - her final year there she lead the team in scoring, rebounds, blocked shots and set the school record in steals that lasted for years. When we started trying to add the best team from more programs to our game we did not have many stats from the 20th century women's teams, and we settled on this as the best UVa women's team of the century. They certainly rank far below the great teams in the game from UConn, South Carolina and Tennessee, but this was a nice team that not only won a tournament upset as a 10-seed, but then played a great game against the all-time greatest UVa player Dawn Staley and South Carolina.

 As you can see from the box, both backcourt players put up 16 points on a combined seven 3-pointers to give a scare to South Carolina in what would be Boyle's last game coaching before changing her life focus to adopt a child. 

From this ESPN account: Up 30-25 at the half, South Carolina opened up a 12-point lead in the third period before the Cavaliers cut it to 46-40 with 10 minutes left. Virginia still trailed just 52-47 after Dominique Toussaint's driving bucket with 6:39 to play.

UVa vs SC 2018	MIN	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Lauren Moses	23	2'-7	0-0	2'-4	2	2	1	0	6
Jocelyn Willoughby	35	1'-7	0-0	4'-4	7	0	0	0	6
Dominique Toussaint	34	5'-15	3'-8	1'-2	4	4	1	0	16
Aliyah Huland El	24	2'-6	0-2	3'-4	3	1	1	2	7
J'Kyra Brown	31	5'-14	4'-9	2'-2	2	1	0	0	16
BENCH	MIN		3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Lisa Jablonowski	18	1'-1	0-0	1'-2	1	0	1	0	3
Mone Jones	2	0'-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Felicia Aiyeotan	19	2'-5	0-0	0-0	4	1	0	2	2
Brianna Tinsley	14	0'-0	0-1	0-0	1	1	0	0	0
Totals	200	18-57	7'-20	13-18	31	10	4	4	56
	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4		Final
10-seed Virginia	12	13	15	16		56
2-seed S. Carolina	15	15	16	20		66

Cinderella Notre Dame Ladies Pull Miracle in OT Win Over Stanford and Elite 8

In the day the real Notre Dame Ladies overcame an injury to claim a share of another ACC title, their 2018 squad pulled off the first true miracle in our all-time great Ladies tournament ... 

Trailing Stanford 74-69 Notre Dame with 40 seconds to play, Notre Dame put all 3-point shooters in the floor in desperation. The normal line-ups is the top row of players in the Value Add Basketball Game, but we wrote the end of game positions from 1 to 5 with big circles on the team sheet below, along with each players stats. 

We also chose the strategy of trying for a 3-pointer. When this is done, each players 3-point made range is increased by 1 for every 1 2-point made at the top of the range that can be turned into a 2-pt missed and rebound automatically goes to the defense. However no player can more than double their 3-pt range. You do not need to use Advanced rules to play the game, but it does allow strategies like this.

In English, the Notre Dame made shot ranges on the cards below changed to:

8-sided	Name	3-pt made	2-pt-made	2-pt now missed, def reb
1	Cole	1-5	6	7
2	Thompson	1-6	None	7-8
3, 6 & 7	Ogunbowale	1-6	None	7-9
4	Mabry	1-7	None	8-9
5	Young	1-4	5-9	10-11
8	Poss TO

For the top square of the 1 possession (0:16 seconds) box the 8-sided die was a "5", so the ball went to Jackie Young, and the 20-sided die was a 6, which is a 2-pointer made. Note the 3-pointer range can only be doubled, so Young's 3-point range could only be increased from 1-2 to 1-4 since the Irish did not have a 5th player with a higher 3-point range. The 20-sided die was a "6," which meant Young made a 2-pointer, still leaving Notre Dame behind 74-71. 

Only a steal or foul results in the spot under the diagonal slash being used as a last possession, thus requiring Notre Dame to use the advanced strategy of going for a turnover or fouling to prolong the game. When going for the steal or foul the 20-sided shot dice is not used, and if the result of the other three is a steal or turnover that result stands with the extra possession created. Any other result is a foul and two shots. The 8-sided die was a "5" sending the ball to Haley Jones, meaning only a 11-16 could be a steal by Jackie Young, or a 41-42 as a turnover on Jones offensive card. It just missed that range as a 43, sending Young to the foul line needing 1 of 2 shots to seal the win.

Jones free throw range was 1-14, a decent 70%, but the 20-sided die came up "20" and then "16" to give Notre Dame one desperation trip down the court needing a 3-pointer to force overtime.

Instead, Arike Ogunbowaie was fouled for two shots. The normal starting five were put back on the court for Notre Dame since at this point the only hope was to make the first free throw, miss the second and then have the two best possible offensive rebounders in the game. In actual basketball the home team grabs an offensive rebound about 33% of the time on a regular shot, but only 17% on a missed free throw - so in the game a missed free throw resulting in an offensive rebound by the Point Guard, Shooting Guard or Small Forward goes to the defense instead. Only the Power Forward (in this case Jackie Young, with a good 1-6 offensive rebound) or Center (in this case Jessica Shepard, with an even better 1-8 offensive rebound).

With the first free throw cutting it to 74-72, the rebound chart was a "10" on the 20-sided die, and a 10 or 20 goes to the highest rebounding range on the entire court (ties go to offense). In this case, Shepard's 1-8 Offensive Rebound topped Haley Jones Defensive Rebound of 1-7, so Jones had the rebound, and on the roll of the four dice scored herself for an unbelievable 74-74 tie and the first overtime came in our women's tournament.

We wrote the stats by each players name on the Notre Dame team sheet above, and the Stanford sheet below, which is followed by the scoresheet which includes the running score through the 5-minute overtime off to the right.

Ogunbowaie's 28-point, 6-rebound, 3-steal, 3-blocked shots game included a 12-6 personal run that cut Stanford's lead from 51-43 to 57-55. 

The overtime went back-and-forth, with Ogunbowaie hitting the final bucket to make it 87-84, and then Stanford also putting in their 3-point shooters as indicated below. 

The Irish will try to continue their Cinderella run next against the #1 all-time seed, 2016 UConn in the Elite 8.

The last Elite 8 spot will be filled by the winner of South Carolina 2017 vs. Cheryl Miller's 1983 team - a USC vs. USC battle. 

OSU Upset Bid Stopped by Best Player in World - A'ja Wilson; Final Bracket Set

 The 2016 Ohio State women trailed only 53-52 with 8:17 (14 possessions to play), then they ran into a wall named A'ja Wilson. The college player of the year in 2018 and WNBA player of the year in 2020 and 2022 blocked shots on three of the next four Ohio State trips down the court. The games are played using the free Value Add Basketball Game.

Then with 7 possessions left the South Carolina star scored off an offensive rebound, the immediately stole a pass and laid it in to make it 66-56. The next trip she grabbed another offensive rebound and was fouled and converted a free throw to make it 69-57.

South Carolina won 79-68 in the last home game of the tournament. The last 9 games will be in a neutral court. The next game will be a USC vs USC game as South Carolina plays Cheryl Miller's Lady Trojans of 1983. The 10 teams who won their first game now advance into this bracket:

Here are the first round results. Based on the margins we expected based on the cards, we expected the 10 favored home teams to go 8.6 - 1.4 and win by an average of 17.8 points in these first 10 games. In fact, they did go 9-1, but winning by an average of six points less - by 11.7 points per game including the negative 7 for the Notre Dame upset.

1st Round All-Time Women's Tournament	Home Favored	Percent	Actual Score
#20 Long Beach St. 1987 at #1 Connecticut 2016	34	99%	UConn wins 98-53
#19 Duke 2006 at #2 Connecticut 2010	32	99%	UConn wins 75-66
#18 Old Dominion 1980 at #3 Tennessee 1998	31	99%	Tennessee wins 80-55
#17 Texas 2018 at #4 Louisiana Tech 1982	25	98%	La Tech wins 84-62
#16 Louisville 2014 at #5 Baylor 2019	14	89%	Baylor wins 76-69
#15 Oregon 2019 at #6 Baylor 2012	13	87%	Baylor wins 84-81
#14 Washington 2017 at #7 USC 1983	9	79%	USC wins 65-57
#13 Mississippi St. 2018 at #8 Stanford 2021	9	79%	Stanford wins 74-58
#12 Notre Dame 2018 at #9 Texas A&M 2011	7	72%	ND wins 76-69
#11 Ohio St. 2016 at #10 South Carolina 2017	4	63%	SC wins 79-68
Expected ave. margin for favorite 17.8 pts, actual 11.7	17.8	8.6	Favorites Expected Record 8.6 - 1.4, Actual 9-1

Oregon 2019 and Washington 2017 might have won their games on a neutral court, but the first round the better seeds received home court advantage. In the game the home team can switch defensive rolls form 36 to 66 or vice versa. The rest of the games are neutral court.

16 All-Time Great Women's College Teams to be Added to Game

Basketball Reference is doing a great job of building up women's historic stats. Still a work on progress, but I believe I have pulled enough from them and other sources to pull together an initial all-time great Women's teams for the Value Add Basketball Game.

I try to pull the greatest teams but also teams with the greatest players of all time so they have cards. Here is a great piece on Nate Silver's site tracking the women's dynasties.

I try to pick as many different schools as possible, so to do that Baylor and UConn are the only schools with two teams even though they and Tennessee and the new South Carolina teams could fill out a whole game.

We are also limited by which teams have stats, or at least enough accounts of games that I can compile the player cards. 

Here are the 16 teams I intend to roll out as early as this weekend if the calculations go well.

School	Year	Season	Star Player - POY at some point in career
Baylor	2012	Nat'l Champs	Odyssey Sims & Brittney Griner (both POY)
Baylor	2019	Nat'l Champs	NaLyssa Smith (POY)
Connecticut	2010	Nat'l Champs	Maya Moore (POY)
Connecticut	2016	Nat'l Champs	Breanna Stewart (POY)
Duke	2002	Final 4	Alana Beard
Louisiana Tech	1982	Nat'l Champs	Pam Kelly (POY)
Notre Dame	2018	Nat'l Champs	Arike Ogunbowale (POY)
Ohio St.	2016	Sweet 16	Kelsey Mitchell (POY)
Oregon	2019	Final 4	Sabrina Ionescu
South Carolina	2017	Nat'l Champs	A'ja Wilson (POY)
Stanford	2021	Nat'l Champs	Haley Jones
Tennessee	1998	Nat'l Champs	Chamique Holdsclaw (POY)
Texas	2018	Sweet 16	Brooke McCarty
Texas A&M	2011	Nat'l Champs	Danielle Adams
USC	1984	Nat'l Champs	Cheryl Miller (POY)
Washington	2017	Sweet 16	Kelsey Plum

Trying to figure out if we can cobble together numbers for an Old Dominion University and/or Long Beach State team.

We can go with Madison Montgomery's 2017 Long Beach State team as we have their stats, though obviously would prefer to pull together some info on the back-to-back Final Four teams from 1987 and 1988.

For Old Dominion we don't even have their 2008 team stats, though would love to have 1985 of course.