Sunday, April 17, 2022

Statis-Pro Cards Now Match Ratios of 181,818 Actual MLB At Bats

We matched up our initial 2022 run of Statis-Pro baseball cards with the 181,818 actual plate appearances last year to verify accuracy, and did find we were slightly off on two items - batters an average of four too many strikeouts and two too many walks. After making those adjustments, here are the average cards (pitchers in column 2 and batters in column 4) from the cards from this google sheet to print and play.

If you do not see a player on the list with their team, you will likely find them on this bigger alphabetical list of all batters, or all pitchers

If you already printed cards, just subtract four strikeouts and two walks from each batter's card for accuracy.

Pitchers' cards were already accurate, and were not updated. The 2nd column shows the average pitchers card is a PB 4-7 allows singles on 11-22, balks on a 23, Strikes out the batter on 24-47, walks him on 48-55, throws a wild pitch on 56, counts on Clutch Defense of his catcher o 57-58 and induces an out on 58-88. 

The average batter singles on 11-17, doubles on 18-25, triples on 26, homers on 27-31, hits a DEEP drive on 32-34 (about one in three of them go out for a homer), strikes out on 35-47, walks on 48-54, is hit by a pitch on 55, and is out on 56-88 (though that can turn into an error).
Result (OPS .726)Ave PitcherAve. BatterTotal of 128Actual 2021Actual%per 128
1B10.2 (11-22)7.1 (11-17)17.32500613.8% 17.6
2B 5.7 (18-25)5.778634.3% 5.5
3B 0.5 (26)0.56710.4% 0.5
HR 3.4 (27-31)3.459443.3% 4.2
Deep (1/3rd HR) 3.0 (32-34)3 0.0% -
BK (or Out)1 (23) 1 0.0% -
K19.4 (24-47)10.6 (35-47)304214523.2% 29.7
W6.0 (48-55)4.9 (48-54)10.9157948.7% 11.1
HPB 1.0 (55)121121.2% 1.5
WP (or Out)1.0 (56) 1 0.0% -
CD-C (or Out)2.0 (57-58) 2 0.0% -
Out24.4 (61-88)27.8 (56-88)52.28164644.9% 57.5
Totals6464128 181,181 100% 127.6

When the combined totals of the batter and pitcher cards coming up half the time, the third column gives the average results per 128 plate appearances. 

Those results now match up with the average results during 181,818 plate appearances in Major League Baseball in 2021. 

Last season there were 25,006 singles, or 13.8% of all plate appearances which works out to 17.6 per 128 plate appearances - a difference of only 0.08 per 128 from the game.

There were 7,863 doubles, 4.3% of the time or 5.5 per 128 - just under the 4.6 average in the game.

There were 671 triples, or 0.4% of the time and 0.5 per 128, slightly lower than the 0.5 based on the cards.

There were 5,944 homers, 3.3% of 4.2 per 128, which matches the3.4 average homers in the game PLUS one-third of the 3 deep drives per batter card.

There were 42,145 strikeouts, 23.2% or 29.7 per 128 plate appearances, just less than the 30 average on the Statis-Pro cards.

There were 15,794 walks, 8.7% or 11.1 per 128 - just over the 10.9 average on the Statis-Pro cards.

There were 2,112 batters hit by pitch, 1.2% or 1.5 per 128, slightly above the 1.0 on the Statis-Pro cards.

There were 122,457 non-strikeout "outs," meaning at At Bat minus hits and strikeouts. that is 44.9% of all at bats, and includes plays on which errors are made and there is not actually an out, or 57.7 per 128 plate appearances. at first the 52.2 average OUTS on the Statis-Pro cards look too low, however, when no one is on base then CD-C, WP and Balks are simply outs, and two of three times a DEEP drive is an OUT.

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