With most of the www.valueaddbasketball.com brackets we published in the 98th to 100th percentile, here are the scenarios based on the 8 possibilities for the title game. Here is the blog of all 7 brackets that was posted and sent out a few hours after the brackets were announced.
1. Gonzaga beats Houston
Our coaches ballot, already in the 100% would stay our best, but our Value Add only and our Defense brackets should all end up at 100% since all three picked this result.
Only 34% of all brackets picked Gonzaga to win and only 5% picked Houston to finish 2nd, so this would mean our three brackets were among only about 2% to have the title.game correct and thus pass millions of brackets to likely all end up in the 100th percentile.
2. Baylor beats Gonzaga
Our Experienced Guard bracket would end up the top of our brackets and move up from the 99th percentile to 100th percentile, since it would have picked the title game correctly, and the three above would drop a few because it means they would have been wrong predicting Houston beating Baylor and on the Zags inning it all.
However only 3 percent have Houston winning and only 18% percent have Gonzaga finishing 2nd, so probably only about 2 percent have this as the title game so the three above would be in the top couple of percent. We know this from this breakdown of the 17.2 million brackets.
3. Gonzaga beats Baylor
The most likely result at this point, but probably only about 6% or a little higher percentage of brackets would have this correct exactly since 34% picked the Zags to win and 17% picked Baylor in 2nd.
The coach brackets would still be 100th percentile and the defense and value add only would be close to it despite all 3 missing one semifinal game but nailing the other and the title game.
4. Houston beats Gonzaga
Because the champion is weighted so heavily, all four of the brackets mentioned above would drop the most if this happened since all would have the wrong champion.
5. Baylor beats UCLA
This is actually the worst of all scenarios for all 4 brackets because all would have the wrong champ and would have missed with predicting a Gonzaga semi final win, but likely still in the 90+ percentile since less than 1 percent picked ucla in the title game.
6. Houston beats UCLA
Experience guards would be our best and in the 100th percentile.
7. UCLA beats Baylor
With only 0.2 percent picking UCLA to win, our top few might stay where they are at 100th, 99th and 98th.
8. UCLA beats Houston
Experienced guards would pass the other three for picking Houston over Baylor correctly, and would likely be in the 100th percentile, and the other three might stay 100th, 99th and 98th, but could slip a perfnet.
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