Updated Bracket End of 1st Round; Value Add + Coach Experience in 99th Percentile of Brackets

The bracket published basing picks on the www.valueaddbasketball.com ratings of all valuable players plus the experience of the head coach in winning March Madness games has been correct on 25 of 32 picks in the first round to place in the 99th percentile.

The system correctly picked four upsets on the lower bracket below, the team winning with the worse seed - UCLA, Rutgers, Syracuse and Wisconsin. Almost penciled in Mark Turgeon to tip Maryland past UConn and should have pulled the trigger. That was a brilliant packed defense to make UConn shoot jumpers instead of driving.

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Teams bolded when they win 2nd round game to advance to Sweet 16. The "Prev Yrs" indicates how many of the past 25 years the coach has advanced to at least the 2nd round of the NCAA tournament coming into this tournament. All times Central.

Gm CT	Round 2 Coach	Prev Yrs	Best Run
11:10	Porter Moser, Loy	1	2018 Final Four
	Brad Underwood, IL	2	No Sweet 16
1:40	Greg Gard, WI	2	2 Sweet 16s
	Scott Drew, Baylor	5	Elite 8 2010 and 2012
4:15	Jim Boeheim, Syr	13	2003 title, final 4 2013 & 2016
	Bob Huggins, WVU	14	Final 4 2010, 5 Sweet 16s
5:10	Chris Beard, TX Tech	3	2019 Title Game
	Eric Musselman, Ark	1	Sweet 16 in 2018
6:10	Steve Pikiell, Rutg	0	No Sweet 16
	Kelvin Sampson, Hou	8	Final 4 2002 Oklahoma
6:45	Paul Mills, Oral R	0	No Sweet 16
	Michael White, FL	3	Elite 8 in 2017
7:45	Grant McCasland, N TX	0	No Sweet 16
	Jay Wright, Vill	12	NatlChamps 2016 & 2018
8:40	Wayne Tinkle, OR St	0	No Sweet 16
	Mike Boynton, OK St	0	No Sweet 16
M 8:40	Andy Enfield, USC	2	FGCU 2013 Sweet 16
	Bill Self, KS	13	2008 National Title
M 6:10	Will Wade, LSU	2	Sweet 16 in 2019
	Juwan Howard, MI	0	No Sweet 16
M 4:15	Mick Cronin, UCLA	5	Sweet 16 in 2012
	Joe Golding, Abil Chr	0	No Sweet 16
M 1:40	Mark Few, Gonz	15	2017 Title Game
	Lon Kruger, OK	6	Final 4 2016
M 6:45	Tad Boyle, Col	1	No Sweet 16
	Leonard Hamilton, FSU	7	2018 Elite 8
M 7:45	Mark Turgeon, MD	7	Sweet 16 2006, 2016
	Nate Oats, AL	2	No Sweet 16
M 11:10	Dana Altman, OR	8	Final 4 2017
	Fran McCaffery, IA	5	No Sweet 16
M 5:15	Jeff Boals, OH	0	No Sweet 16
	Greg McDermott, Creigh	3	No Sweet 16

Other systems factor on the Value Add Basketball Rankings, while other variations adjust for; 1, experienced guards, 2, defense and 3, how hot the team finished the season, or how much NBA talent they feature. 

Here are the rankings of the 7 brackets we published, as tracked by espn, followed by the bracket in the lead - Value Add adjusted for coaches who have taken their teams on big runs.

Here are the actual brackets released Sunday, hours after the brackets were announced. Readers were told to list the team on as many lines as indicated.

Seed	West	Region	Value Add	Hot	Coach	Def	Exp Gu	NBA	My Pick
1	Gonzaga	Favored	6	6	6	6	5	6	6
16	Appalachian St./Norfolk St	Underdog
8	Oklahoma	Favored	1		1	1	1	1	1
9	Missouri	Underdog		1
5	Creighton	Favored	1	1	1	1	2	1	2
12	UC Santa Barbara	Underdog
4	Virginia or Louisville	Favored	2	2	2	2	1	2
13	Ohio	Underdog							1
6	USC	Favored	2	2	3	2	3	1	3
11	Wichita St. or Drake	Underdog
3	Kansas	Favored	1	1	1	1	1	3	1
14	Eastern Washington	Underdog
7	Oregon	Favored	1	1	1	1	1	1
10	VCU	Underdog							2
2	Iowa	Favored	3	3	2	3	2	2	1
15	Grand Canyon	Underdog
Seed	East	Region	Value Add	Hot	Coach	Def	Exp Gu	NBA	My Pick
1	Michigan	Favored	4	3	4	4	3	1	4
16	Texas Southern/Mt St. Mary's	Underdog
8	LSU	Favored						3
9	St. Bonaventure	Underdog	1	1	1	1	1		1
5	Colorado	Favored	1		1	1	2	1
12	Georgetown	Underdog		1					2
4	Florida St.	Favored	2	2	2	2	1	2	1
13	UNC Greensboro	Underdog
6	BYU	Favored	1	2		1	1
11	UCLA or Michigan St	Underdog			1			1	1
3	Texas	Favored	2	1	2	2	2	4	2
14	Abilene Christian	Underdog
7	Connecticut	Favored	1	4	3	1		1	3
10	Maryland	Underdog					1
2	Alabama	Favored	3	1	1	3	4	2	1
15	Iona	Underdog
Seed	South	Region	Value Add	Hot	Coach	Def	Exp Gu	NBA	My Pick
1	Baylor	Favored	4	4	4	4	6	4	1
16	Hartford	Underdog
8	North Carolina	Favored						1	3
9	Wisconsin	Underdog	1	1	1	1	1
5	Villanova	Favored	1	1	2	1	1	2	1
12	Winthrop	Underdog
4	Purdue	Favored	2	2	1	2	2	1	2
13	North Texas	Underdog
6	Texas Tech	Favored	1	1	1		1	3
11	Utah St.	Underdog				1			2
3	Arkansas	Favored	2	3	2	2	3	1	1
14	Colgate	Underdog
7	Florida	Favored	1	1	1	1	2	2	1
10	Virginia Tech	Underdog
2	Ohio St.	Favored	3	2	3	3	1	1	4
15	Oral Roberts	Underdog
Seed	Midwest	Region	Value Add	Hot	Coach	Def	Exp Gu	NBA	My Pick
1	Illinois	Favored	3	5	3	3	4	2	3
16	Drexel	Underdog
8	Loyola Chicago	Favored	1		1	1
9	Georgia Tech	Underdog		1			1	1	1
5	Tennessee	Favored	1	1	1	1	2	5	2
12	Oregon St.	Underdog
4	Oklahoma St.	Favored	2	2	2	2	1	1
13	Liberty	Underdog							1
6	San Diego St.	Favored	2	2		3	1	1	1
11	Syracuse	Underdog			1
3	West Virginia	Favored	1	1	2	1	2	2	2
14	Morehead St.	Underdog
7	Clemson	Favored
10	Rutgers	Underdog	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
2	Houston	Favored	5	3	5	5	3	3	5
15	Cleveland St.	Underdog