Friday, March 19, 2021

Updated Bracket End of 1st Round; Value Add + Coach Experience in 99th Percentile of Brackets

The bracket published basing picks on the ratings of all valuable players plus the experience of the head coach in winning March Madness games has been correct on 25 of 32 picks in the first round to place in the 99th percentile.

The system correctly picked four upsets on the lower bracket below, the team winning with the worse seed - UCLA, Rutgers, Syracuse and Wisconsin. Almost penciled in Mark Turgeon to tip Maryland past UConn and should have pulled the trigger. That was a brilliant packed defense to make UConn shoot jumpers instead of driving.

Click for this CBS Sports 24/7 story:

Teams bolded when they win 2nd round game to advance to Sweet 16. The "Prev Yrs" indicates how many of the past 25 years the coach has advanced to at least the 2nd round of the NCAA tournament coming into this tournament. All times Central.

Gm CTRound 2 CoachPrev YrsBest Run
11:10Porter Moser, Loy12018 Final Four
 Brad Underwood, IL2No Sweet 16
1:40Greg Gard, WI22 Sweet 16s
 Scott Drew, Baylor5Elite 8 2010 and 2012
4:15Jim Boeheim, Syr132003 title, final 4 2013 & 2016
 Bob Huggins, WVU14Final 4 2010, 5 Sweet 16s
5:10Chris Beard, TX Tech32019 Title Game
 Eric Musselman, Ark1Sweet 16 in 2018
6:10Steve Pikiell, Rutg0No Sweet 16
 Kelvin Sampson, Hou8Final 4 2002 Oklahoma
6:45Paul Mills, Oral R0No Sweet 16
 Michael White, FL3Elite 8 in 2017
7:45Grant McCasland, N TX0No Sweet 16
 Jay Wright, Vill12NatlChamps 2016 & 2018
8:40Wayne Tinkle, OR St0No Sweet 16
 Mike Boynton, OK St0No Sweet 16
M 8:40Andy Enfield, USC2FGCU 2013 Sweet 16
 Bill Self, KS132008 National Title
M 6:10Will Wade, LSU2Sweet 16 in 2019
 Juwan Howard, MI0No Sweet 16
M 4:15Mick Cronin, UCLA5Sweet 16 in 2012
 Joe Golding, Abil Chr0No Sweet 16
M 1:40Mark Few, Gonz152017 Title Game
 Lon Kruger, OK6Final 4 2016
M 6:45Tad Boyle, Col1No Sweet 16
 Leonard Hamilton, FSU72018 Elite 8
M 7:45Mark Turgeon, MD7Sweet 16 2006, 2016
 Nate Oats, AL2No Sweet 16
M 11:10Dana Altman, OR8Final 4 2017
 Fran McCaffery, IA5No Sweet 16
M 5:15Jeff Boals, OH0No Sweet 16
 Greg McDermott, Creigh3No Sweet 16

Other systems factor on the Value Add Basketball Rankings, while other variations adjust for; 1, experienced guards, 2, defense and 3, how hot the team finished the season, or how much NBA talent they feature. 

Here are the rankings of the 7 brackets we published, as tracked by espn, followed by the bracket in the lead - Value Add adjusted for coaches who have taken their teams on big runs.

Here are the actual brackets released Sunday, hours after the brackets were announced. Readers were told to list the team on as many lines as indicated.

SeedWestRegionValue AddHotCoachDefExp GuNBAMy Pick
16Appalachian St./Norfolk StUnderdog       
8OklahomaFavored1 11111
9MissouriUnderdog 1     
12UC Santa BarbaraUnderdog       
4Virginia or LouisvilleFavored222212 
13OhioUnderdog      1
11Wichita St. or DrakeUnderdog       
14Eastern WashingtonUnderdog       
10VCUUnderdog      2
15Grand CanyonUnderdog       
SeedEastRegionValue AddHotCoachDefExp GuNBAMy Pick
16Texas Southern/Mt St. Mary'sUnderdog       
8LSUFavored     3 
9St. BonaventureUnderdog11111 1
5ColoradoFavored1 1121 
12GeorgetownUnderdog 1    2
4Florida St.Favored2222121
13UNC GreensboroUnderdog       
6BYUFavored12 11  
11UCLA or Michigan StUnderdog  1  11
14Abilene ChristianUnderdog       
7ConnecticutFavored1431 13
10MarylandUnderdog    1  
SeedSouthRegionValue AddHotCoachDefExp GuNBAMy Pick
8North CarolinaFavored     13
13North TexasUnderdog       
6Texas TechFavored111 13 
11Utah St.Underdog   1  2
10Virginia TechUnderdog       
2Ohio St.Favored3233114
15Oral RobertsUnderdog       
SeedMidwestRegionValue AddHotCoachDefExp GuNBAMy Pick
8Loyola ChicagoFavored1 11   
9Georgia TechUnderdog 1  111
12Oregon St.Underdog       
4Oklahoma St.Favored222211 
13LibertyUnderdog      1
6San Diego St.Favored22 3111
11SyracuseUnderdog  1    
3West VirginiaFavored1121222
14Morehead St.Underdog       
15Cleveland St.Underdog      

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