Tuesday, December 26, 2023

Calipari's UMass Tops 16 New Schools In Value Add Basketball Game

We finished the first stage of developing the cards- always 10 players to a team - of 16 strong college basketball programs that did not yet have a team in the Value Add Basketball Game. We started this project after finishing our Christmas tournament with Bill Russell defeating Wilt Chamberlain for a mini-title.

The best of the new 16 teams is Massachusetts (UMass) when John Calipari took them to No. 1 in the Final AP poll in 1996 and a final four. Two teams that still need to prove themselves over time, but seem to be building strong programs are Liberty University's team from a year ago that gave Wisconsin a scare in the NIT and reeled off wins to start this season, and James Madison University, which is currently ranked and was ranked in football in just their second year at the FBS level.

The following list shows where each team finished in the final AP poll, and then how they did in the tournament. We then calculate their offensive and defensive rating based on how many points we'd expect their cards to produce per 100 offensive possessions, and allowed per 100 defensive possessions. The bigger the gap the better the team and the overall rating is that figure -17, since the average great team is about 17 points better than an "average" team.

UMass' 110 and 90, 20 better than an "average* team but +3 better than the average great team in the game. We will likely set up a 16-team tournament and would out the against the 16th beat new great team, Liberty University with a 107 and 105 for a -15. This means we'd expect UMass to be about 18 points better than Liberty in 100 possessions or about a 12-point favorite for a 66 possession game.

Then we have developed just the first part we need to do on the cards. Basic info so you know how good they are, and then their Stamina and which possessions we recommend each player is used (in the game the possessions start at 44 and to down to 1 as the final possession). 

We did not list the positions, but they are all in order, so the first player listed in the starting point guard (PG-1), then the starting shooting guard (SG-2) etc, with the sixth player starting the reserves as the back-up point guard etc.

The rest of the cards will be developed, but this is always the first step to research a new team.

 
Bradley - 1954 (7th Runner-Up)                  
Off 94, Def 85, Rating -8    
PlayerHtSeason StatsStaminaPlays possessions (44-1 is all)
John Kent6'113.0 Pts, 4.1 Reb3737-1
Bob Carney6'116.2 Pts, 7.0 Reb-NBA3737-1
Eddie King6'49.2 Pts, 4.3 Reb3737-1
Dick Estergard6'414.5 Pts, 12.3 Reb3737-1
Dick Petersen6'56.3 Pts, 5.9 Reb3737-1
Lee O'Connell6'23.2 Pts, 1.1 Reb7PG 44-38
John Riley6'22.0 Pts, 1.4 Reb7SG 44-38
Harvey Babetch6'26.1 Pts, 3.1 Reb7SF 44-38
Jerry Hansen6'45.4 Pts, 2.9 Reb7PF 44-38
Barney Kilcullen6'92.4 Pts, 3.8 Reb7C 44-38
Buffalo 2019 (22nd, Round 2)    
Off 110, Def 98, Rating -5    
PlayerHtSeason StatsStaminaPlays possessions (44-1 is all)
Davonta Jordan6'27.4 Pts, 3.2 Reb, 3.6 Ast3333-1
Jayvon Graves6'39.7 Pts, 4.2 Reb, 1.9 Ast3044-34,19-1
CJ Massinburg6'318.2 Pts, 6.5 Reb, 3.0 Ast4141-1
Jeremy Harris6'714.0 Pts, 6.2 Reb, 3.0 Ast4144-33, 29-1
Nick Perkins6'814.7 Pts, 7.4 Reb, 0.7 Ast3232-1
Dontay Caruthers6'18.6 Pts, 3.4 Reb, 2.8 Ast25PG 44-34, SG 33-20
Ronaldo Segu6'02.1 Pts, 0.9 Reb, 1.0 Ast5None
Jeenathan Williams6'53.2 Pts, 1.7 Reb, 0.2 Ast-NBA5SF 44-42
Tra'Von Fagan6'81.3 Pts, 1.2 Reb, 0.2 Ast5None
Montell McRae6'105.6 Pts, 3.4 Reb, 0.5 Ast16C 44-33, PF 32-30
Charlotte - 1977 (17th, Final 4)    
Off 112, Def 97, Rating -2    
PlayerHtSeason StatsStaminaPlays possessions (44-1 is all)
Melvin Watkins6'39.6 Pts, 3.7 Reb, 6.0 Ast3737-1
Chad Kinch6'415.4 Pts, 3.8 Reb, 3.8 Ast-NBA3737-1
Kevin King6'711.1 Pts, 5.0 Reb, 1.8 Ast3737-1
Lew Massey6'619.7 Pts, 6.8 Reb, 1.6 Ast3737-1
Cedric Maxwell6'822.3 Pts, 12.1 Reb, 2.1 Ast-NBA3737-1
Jeff Gruber6'25.6 Pts, 0.9 Reb, 1.4 Ast7PG 44-38
Lee Whitfield6'20.6 Pts, 0.5 Reb, 0.8 Ast7SG 44-38
Mike Hester6'73.1 Pts, 2.2 Reb, 0.0 Ast7SF 44-38
Ken Angel6'81.1 Pts, 1.1 Reb, 0.1 Ast7PF 44-38
Phil Scott6'83.1 Pts, 2.8 Reb, 0.3 Ast7C 44-38
Drake - 1969 (11th, Final 4)    
Off 112, Def 96, Rating -1  183 
PlayerHtSeason StatsStaminaPlays possessions (44-1 is all)
Willie McCarter6'320.4 Pts, 3.7 Reb-NBA3737-1
Dolph Pulliam6'413.3 Pts, 7.7 Reb3737-1
Al Williams6'68.8 Pts, 7.3 Reb-NBA3737-1
Willie Wise6'514.6 Pts, 11.4 Reb-NBA3737-1
Rick Wanamaker6'94.4 Pts, 3.4 Reb3737-1
Don Draper6'012.3 Pts, 2.4 Reb7PG 44-38
Gary Zeller6'26.3 Pts, 1.6 Reb-NBA7SG 44-38
Ron Gwin6'22.6 Pts, 1.4 Reb7SF 44-38
Larry Sharp6'91.6 Pts, 1.2 Reb7PF 44-38
Garry Odom6'83.8 Pts, 4.5 Reb7C 44-38
James Madison 2024 (68th, in season)    
Off 111, Def 106, Rating -12  183 
PlayerHtSeason StatsStaminaPlays possessions (44-1 is all)
Michael Green6'011.5 Pts, 1.3 Reb, 4.8 Ast3333-1
Noah Freidel6'410.9 Pts, 4.6 Reb, 1.4 Ast3744-34,26-1
Terrence Edwards6'617.2 Pts, 5.2 Reb, 3.0 Ast3944-30, 24-1
Julien Wooden6'89.8 Pts, 3.5 Reb, 1.7 Ast2929-1
TJ Bickerstaff6'915.8 Pts, 8.2 Reb, 1.4 Ast2733-25, 20-1
Bryant Randleman6'41.7 Pts, 0.7 Reb, 1.2 Ast5None
Xavier Brown6'27.0 Pts, 2.5 Reb, 2.3 Ast19PG 44-34, SG 33-27
Quincy Allen6'83.8 Pts, 1.4 Reb, 0.0 Ast5None
Raekwon Horton6'67.0 Pts, 4.4 Reb, 1.3 Ast24PF 44-30, SF 29-25, C 24-21
Jaylen Carey6'86.8 Pts, 4.6 Reb, 0.5 Ast11C 44-34
Liberty 2023 (48th, NIT 2nd)    
Off 107, Def 105, Rating -15  196 
PlayerHtSeason StatsStaminaPlays possessions (44-1 is all)
Colin Porter5'97.8 Pts, 2.6 Reb, 3.8 Ast3544, 34-1
Darius McGhee 105'922.8 Pts, 3.3 Reb, 3.0 Ast4343-1
Joseph Venzant6'34.2 Pts, 5.0 Reb, 0.4 Ast2626-1
Kyle Rode6'710.9 Pts, 3.5 Reb, 3.5 Ast3939-1
Blake Preston6'96.7 Pts, 5.1 Reb, 1.4 Ast2020-1
Brody Peebles6'27.4 Pts, 1.8 Reb, 0.6 Ast16SG 44, PG 43-35
Jonathan Jackson6'41.4 Pts, 0.2 Reb, 0.1 Ast5None
Isiah Warfield6'52.9 Pts, 2.3 Reb, 0.9 Ast18SF 44-27
Zach Cleveland6'73.4 Pts, 3.4 Reb, 1.8 Ast5PF 44-40
Shiloh Robinson6'77.6 Pts, 3.6 Reb, 0.9 Ast24C 44-21
Massachusetts - 1996 (1st, Final 4)    
Off 110, Def 90, Rating 3    
PlayerHtSeason StatsStaminaPlays possessions (44-1 is all)
Edgar Padilla6'28.9 Pts, 3.5 Reb, 6.7 Ast4944-1
Carmelo Travieso6'212.6 Pts, 3.2 Reb, 2.1 Ast4844-1
Donta Bright6'614.5 Pts, 5.8 Reb, 1.7 Ast3944-39, 33-1
Dana Dingle6'710.1 Pts, 7.4 Reb, 1.5 Ast4344-40, 38-1
Marcus Camby6'1120.5 Pts, 8.2 Reb, 1.8 Ast-NBA3939-1
Charlton Clarke6'31.4 Pts, 0.5 Reb, 0.7 Ast5None
Tyrone Weeks6'75.8 Pts, 5.2 Reb, 0.4 Ast20C 44-40, PF 39, SF 38-34
Rigoberto Nunez6'70.5 Pts, 1.0 Reb, 0.3 Ast5None
Inus Norville6'92.4 Pts, 2.1 Reb, 0.0 Ast5None
Ted Cottrell6'90.9 Pts, 0.9 Reb, 0.0 Ast5None
Nevada 2004 (20th, Sweet 16)    
Off 107, Def 96, Rating -6  209 
PlayerHtSeason StatsStaminaPlays possessions (44-1 is all)
Todd Okeson6'011.2 Pts, 2.8 Reb, 3.9 Ast4141-1
Kirk Snyder6'618.8 Pts, 5.7 Reb, 3.4 Ast-NBA4144-42,37-1
Garry Hill-Thomas6'49.8 Pts, 3.6 Reb, 2.3 Ast3535-1
Kevinn Pinkney6'109.4 Pts, 5.7 Reb, 0.9 Ast-NBA3444-34, 26-1
Nick Fazekas6'1112.6 Pts, 7.6 Reb, 0.5 Ast-NBA3333-1
Kyle Shiloh6'31.8 Pts, 1.2 Reb, 0.9 Ast5None
Seth Taylor (1-3 3pt, 4-6 pt 7-8 FT, 9-14 miss 3, 15-20 miss 2)6'31.0 Pts, 0.4 Reb, 0.0 Ast5None
Marcelus Kemp6'54.6 Pts, 1.4 Reb, 0.8 Ast11PG 44-42, SG 41-38
Jermaine Washington6'54.1 Pts, 3.8 Reb, 0.7 Ast13SF 44-36
Sean Paul6'93.4 Pts, 3.8 Reb, 0.9 Ast18C 44-34, PF 33-27
New Mexico - 1974 (NR, Sweet 16)    
Off 109, Def 95, Rating -3  -11 
PlayerHtSeason StatsStaminaPlays possessions (44-1 is all)
Wendell Taylor6'19.1 Pts, 2.3 Reb, 3.8 Ast2929-1
Gabe Nava6'210.2 Pts, 2.3 Reb, 3.1 Ast3737-1
Mark Saiers6'711.1 Pts, 6.5 Reb, 2.3 Ast3838-1
Bernard Hardin6'517.1 Pts, 5.9 Reb, 1.3 Ast39PF 44-36, 29-1
Bill Hagins6'712.5 Pts, 9.0 Reb, 1.6 Ast3535-1
Pat King6'03.4 Pts, 1.3 Reb, 2.6 Ast15PG 44-30
Bob Toppert6'44.7 Pts, 1.8 Reb, 2.2 Ast13SG 44-38, SF 37-32
Bruce Battle6'53.7 Pts, 2.6 Reb, 0.7 Ast6SF 44-39
Rich Pokorski6'68.3 Pts, 2.9 Reb, 0.6 Ast14C 44-36, PF 35-30
Paul Kruse7'23.0 Pts, 2.4 Reb, 0.3 Ast5None
New Mexico St. - 1970 (5th, Final 4)    
Off 116, Def 100, Rating -1  202 
PlayerHtSeason StatsStaminaPlays possessions (44-1 is all)
Jimmy Collins6'224.3 Pts, 4.6 Reb, 2.9 Ast-NBA3737-1
Chito Reyes6'68.2 Pts, 4.6 Reb, 1.0 Ast3737-1
Roy Neal6'65.5 Pts, 5.2 Reb, 0.3 Ast3737-1
Jeff Smith6'812.8 Pts, 8.3 Reb, 0.5 Ast3737-1
Sam Lacey6'1017.7 Pts, 15.9 Reb, 1.3 Ast-NBA3737-1
Charlie Criss5'812.5 Pts, 2.3 Reb, 2.9 Ast-NBA7PG 44-38
Milt Horne6'04.4 Pts, 1.8 Reb, 3.5 Ast7SG 44-38
Bill Moore6'32.0 Pts, 1.3 Reb, 0.3 Ast7SF 44-38
John Burgess6'54.7 Pts, 5.5 Reb, 1.9 Ast7PF 44-38
Lonnie Lefevre6'81.3 Pts, 1.9 Reb, 0.1 Ast7C 44-38
Oregon St. - 1982 (4th, Elite 8)    
Off 104, Def 85, Rating 2  183 
PlayerHtSeason StatsStaminaPlays possessions (44-1 is all)
William Brew6'19.2 Pts, 1.6 Reb, 3.4 Ast5044-1
Lester Conner6'414.9 Pts, 5.4 Reb, 5.1 Ast-NBA5044-1
Danny Evans6'511.3 Pts, 2.1 Reb, 1.7 Ast3737-1
Charlie Sitton6'812.9 Pts, 4.3 Reb, 2.2 Ast-NBA3944-38,32-1
A.C. Green6'98.6 Pts, 5.3 Reb, 1.1 Ast-NBA3838-1
Alan Tait6'20.5 Pts, 0.5 Reb, 0.1 Ast0None
Jamie Stangel6'71.4 Pts, 0.8 Reb, 0.1 Ast0None
Jeff Wilson6'71.2 Pts, 0.8 Reb, 0.2 Ast0None
Rob Holbrook6'86.7 Pts, 3.1 Reb, 2.3 Ast21SF 44-38, PF 37-33
Greg Wiltjer6'115.4 Pts, 3.7 Reb, 0.5 Ast12C 44-39
Richmond 2011 (39th, Sweet 16)    
Off 108, Def 99, Rating -8  197 
PlayerHtSeason StatsStaminaPlays possessions (44-1 is all)
Kevin Anderson6'016.6 Pts, 2.8 Reb, 3.3 Ast4444-1
Cedrick Lindsay6'14.4 Pts, 1.4 Reb, 1.6 Ast2020-1
Kevin Smith6'53.9 Pts, 4.2 Reb, 3.4 Ast3131-1
Justin Harper6'1017.9 Pts, 6.9 Reb, 1.2 Ast-NBA4141-1
Dan Geriot6'99.5 Pts, 3.8 Reb, 2.8 Ast3030-1
Derrick Williams (3pt 1, 2pt 2-6, FT 7-9)6'61.7 Pts, 1.0 Reb, 0.1 Ast0None
Darien Brothers6'37.6 Pts, 1.8 Reb, 1.1 Ast24SG 44-21
Francis-Cedric Martel6'64.6 Pts, 3.6 Reb, 0.9 Ast13SF 44-32
Darrius Garrett6'91.9 Pts, 4.1 Reb, 0.3 Ast14C 44-31
Josh Duinker6'111.8 Pts, 1.1 Reb, 0.2 Ast0PF 44-42
Temple - 1958 (5th, Final 4)    
Off 105, Def 88, Rating 0    
PlayerHtSeason StatsStaminaPlays possessions (44-1 is all)
Guy Rodgers6'020.1 Pts, 6.6 Reb, 5.2 Ast-NBA3737-1
Bill Kennedy5'1113.5 Pts, 3.3 Reb3737-1
Mel Brodsky6'210.9 Pts, 7.5 Reb3737-1
Tink Van Patton6'86.6 Pts, 10.5 Reb3737-1
Jay Norman6'313.0 Pts, 11.9 Reb3737-1
Joe Goldenberg5'71.4 Pts, 0.5 Reb7PG 44-38
Jack Peepe6'21.1 Pts, 1.1 Reb7SG 44-38
Ophie Franklin6'42.1 Pts, 2.5 Reb7SF 44-38
Pete Goss6'71.3 Pts, 1.4 Reb7PF 44-38
Dan Fleming6'65.0 Pts, 4.3 Reb7C 44-38
Tulsa - 2000 (18th, Sweet 16)    
Off 108, Def 95, Rating -4  183 
PlayerHtSeason StatsStaminaPlays possessions (44-1 is all)
Tony Heard6'09.7 Pts, 2.3 Reb, 3.4 Ast3638-1
Marcus Hill6'511.2 Pts, 4.2 Reb, 2.8 Ast3544-39,31-1
Greg Harrington6'210.8 Pts, 2.7 Reb, 2.9 Ast3744-29,19-1
Eric Coley6'511.3 Pts, 6.8 Reb, 3.4 Ast3844-35,28-1
Brandon Kurtz6'1011.2 Pts, 7.0 Reb, 1.6 Ast3434-1
Dante Swanson5'105.5 Pts, 1.2 Reb, 1.0 Ast13PG 44-39, SG 38-32
Antonio Reed5'101.8 Pts, 1.1 Reb, 0.9 Ast5None
Kevin Johnson6'72.4 Pts, 1.5 Reb, 0.5 Ast5None
Charlie Davis6'72.5 Pts, 2.5 Reb, 0.2 Ast5None
David Shelton6'613.5 Pts, 4.5 Reb, 0.5 Ast25C 44-35, PF 34-29,SF 28-20
Washington St. 2008 (10th, Sweet 16)    
Off 109, Def 97, Rating -5  197 
PlayerHtSeason StatsStaminaPlays possessions (44-1 is all)
Taylor Rochestie6'110.4 Pts, 3.2 Reb, 4.7 Ast4644-1
Derrick Low6'214.1 Pts, 1.8 Reb, 1.6 Ast4343-1
Kyle Weaver6'612.2 Pts, 5.3 Reb, 4.3 Ast-NBA4344,42-1
Robbie Cowgill6'107.3 Pts, 5.1 Reb, 0.7 Ast3544-43,33-1
Aron Baynes6'1010.4 Pts, 6.0 Reb, 0.3 Ast-NBA2828-1
Thomas Abercrombie )1-2, 3-4,5-6, 7-16)6'61.2 Pts, 1.5 Reb, 0.5 Ast0None
Stephen Sauls (1-3, 4-6, 7)6'32.1 Pts, 0.8 Reb, 0.5 Ast0None
Daven Harmeling6'75.6 Pts, 2.2 Reb, 0.8 Ast20SG 44, SF 43, PF 42-34,C33-29
Caleb Forrest6'83.4 Pts, 2.0 Reb, 0.2 Ast8C 37-34
Nikola Koprivica6'72.5 Pts, 1.0 Reb, 0.7 Ast7C 44-38
Western Kentucky - 1966 (10th, Sweet 16)    
Off 111, Def 96, Rating -2    
PlayerHtSeason StatsStaminaPlays possessions (44-1 is all)
Dwight Smith6'516.1 Pts, 9.9 Reb3737-1
Clem Haskins6'320.4 Pts, 10.0 Reb3737-1
Wayne Chapman6'613.3 Pts, 4.3 Reb3737-1
Greg Smith6'59.5 Pts, 10.3 Reb3737-1
Steve Cunningham6'515.1 Pts, 7.4 Reb3737-1
Mike Fawcett5'102.1 Pts, 0.6 Reb7PG 44-38
Butch Kaufman5'104.0 Pts, 1.0 Reb7SG 44-38
Norm Weaver6'52.9 Pts, 1.7 Reb7SF 44-38
Pearl Hicks6'72.3 Pts, 3.0 Reb7PF 44-38
Jack Butler6'51.8 Pts, 1.8 Reb7C 44-38

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