Showing posts with label James Madison University. Show all posts
Showing posts with label James Madison University. Show all posts

Sunday, December 31, 2023

NBA's Most Famous Virgin Leads Oregon St. 1982 Past JMU 2024

Oregon State's AC Green set some amazing streaks, perhaps most incredibly staying a virgin through a 16-year NBA career and until his marriage in 2002 (see Fox Sports story). As a freshman on this Oregon State 1982 team he stepped in as the starting center and helped lead the Beavers to a third straight Pac-10 championship, No. 4 ranking, and Elite 8 run.

This card was from Green's freshman season, so he was good but not yet dominant, and his the other future NBA players Lester Conner and Charlie Sitton have stronger cards. Green stepped in to a void the year after Oregon State lost three players from their defending Pac-10 champs to the NBA in Ray Blume, Steve Johnson and Mark Radford. Later the great Gary Payton and his son Gary Payton II went from Oregon State to the NBA.

Patrick Ewing finally shut Oregon State down in the Elite 8, holding the rest of the team to 35% shooting, but the only one unfazed was Green who hit 3 of 4 shots in a 10-point performance. Two games later, Georgetown led UNC in the title game 62-61 when Jordan hit the first of many game-winning shots. More famous still were the following few seconds as the Hoyas worked down for a potential game-winning shot only to have Fred Brown, thinking a teammate was behind him, pass the ball back to James Worthy who ran out the clock. Coach John Thompson famously hugged Brown to let him know all was ok.

Green went onto finish second all-time in career rebounds and fourth all-time in scoring and then won multiple titles with the Los Angeles Lakers. Anyone who has talked to an NBA player about the number of suitors who come to their hotel doors at night can appreciate what it took to stay a virgin as a star in Los Angeles.

This great Oregon State team ranks 47th of the all-time great teams in our score tracker, behind those two (Jordan's UNC is ranked 7th and a Ewing Georgetown team 33rd), and was seeded No. 2 of our new 16 teams and thus drew the newest team and 15-seed, James Madison University 2024, which started this season with an upset at Michigan State to start a 13-0 start that propelled them to No. 20 in the AP rankings, though www.kenpom.com is not as impressed with them at 62nd. This is the same year the JMU football team debuted in the Top 25 in only their second year at the top level of football.

Oregon State dominated this match-up, but JMU keep within range during an incredible streak of 20 possessions during which JMU scored an incredible three or more points on 7 possessions to get within 66-71 with only eight possessions or 4:35 to play.

However, the Beavers clamed down on the defense with steals and blocked shots by Conner, Danny Evans and a stop by Green to only allow 2 points the last eight possessions to win 68-82 win and advance to the second round.

The following is the box score, followed by the scoresheet to show the running score, and then some screen shots to show the set up. The bottom image shows the setup with a game note. Games typically start with each of the 10 players having 2 points each for the 20-20 tie. However, if some players averaged less than two points per game (such as Oregon State's Alan Tait, Jamie Stangel and Jeff Wilson) then you can start them at 0 points and give those extra points - 6 in this case - to other leading scorers. 

In this case we started the 2nd NBA player on the team Connor with 5 points - added a 3-pointer made to the 2-pointer made that most teams start with in the game. We changed Evans starting 2-pointer with a 3-pointer so he starts with 3 points instead of 2. Finally we gave Green a 2nd basket at the opening to start him with 4 points instead of 2. As long as your total is 20 points at the outset, you can tweak but only if some of the 10 players averaged less than 2 points per game.

One strategy note from the game, with 12 possessions, JMU switched to a "try for 3-pointers" strategy to try to catchup from a 54-65 deficit. This should only be used if a team is running out of time to catchup or needs a 3-pointer on their final trip down the court to tie.  It gives a team a chance for the bigger come-from-behind, but on average you will lose 2 points for every 1 point you gain from changing a 2-pointer to a 3-pointer.

It paid immediate dividends on possession 12 when Noah Friedel had a "5" on the 20-sided die, which would normally be in his 5-8 2-point shot made range. However, when the strategy is used then half the numbers in this range are changed to a 3-pointer made (5-6 for Freidel) but the other half are changed to missed 2-point shot and rebound to the high defensive rebound rating. The 3-pointers can no more than double the number of 3-pointers on the card, and any numbers remaining in the range stay a 2-pointer made. Changing it to a 3-pointer cut the Oregon State lead to 57-66.

The only other possession the strategy effected was with 3 possessions left when JMU's Terrence Edwards drew a "6" on the 20-sided die. Due to the strategy, his normal 3-7 range for 2-pointers made was adjusted to a 3-4 for 3-pointer made (it can no longer double the original 1-2 3-pointer made), with a 5 still a made 2-pointer, and then his 6 on this roll falling within the 6-7 range a missed 2-pointer with AC Green getting the rebound as the high rebounder and never a chance for the offense to grab an offensive rebound when they miss in this range. 

Here is the box score:

Pos      JMU 2024              Pts  3pt   2pt  FT  Att RebStl  Blk Fl  Height, PPG          
1-PGMichael Green10220011016'0,11.5 ppg
2-SGNoah Freidel8210011146'4,10.9 ppg
3-SFTerrence Edwards12222221016'6,17.2 ppg
4-PFJulien Wooden5110023016'8,9.8 ppg
5-CTJ Bickerstaff14062220126'9,15.8 ppg
1-PGBryant Randleman0000010016'4,1.7 ppg
2-SGXavier Brown7120011026'2,7 ppg
3-SFQuincy Allen2010010016'8,3.8 ppg
4-PFRaekwon Horton4012211016'6,7 ppg
5-CJaylen Carey6030010016'8,6.8 ppg
 15 Turnovers6881966137110 
            
            
PosOregon St. 1982Pts3pt2ptFTAttRebStlBlkFlHeight, Season
1-PGWilliam Brew11140012016'1,9.2 ppg
2-SGLester Conner21336714016'4,14.9 ppg,NBA
3-SFDanny Evans14151122016'5,11.3 ppg
4-PFCharlie Sitton13150022026'8,12.9 ppg,NBA
5-CA.C. Green10050020136'9,8.6 ppg,NBA
1-PGAlan Tait0000010016'2,0.5 ppg
2-SGJamie Stangel0000010016'7,1.4 ppg
3-SFJeff Wilson0000010016'7,1.2 ppg
4-PFRob Holbrook6030010026'86.7 ppg
5-CGreg Wiltjer6030010016'11,5.4 ppg
 13 Turnovers81628781310110












Tuesday, December 26, 2023

Calipari's UMass Tops 16 New Schools In Value Add Basketball Game

We finished the first stage of developing the cards- always 10 players to a team - of 16 strong college basketball programs that did not yet have a team in the Value Add Basketball Game. We started this project after finishing our Christmas tournament with Bill Russell defeating Wilt Chamberlain for a mini-title.

The best of the new 16 teams is Massachusetts (UMass) when John Calipari took them to No. 1 in the Final AP poll in 1996 and a final four. Two teams that still need to prove themselves over time, but seem to be building strong programs are Liberty University's team from a year ago that gave Wisconsin a scare in the NIT and reeled off wins to start this season, and James Madison University, which is currently ranked and was ranked in football in just their second year at the FBS level.

The following list shows where each team finished in the final AP poll, and then how they did in the tournament. We then calculate their offensive and defensive rating based on how many points we'd expect their cards to produce per 100 offensive possessions, and allowed per 100 defensive possessions. The bigger the gap the better the team and the overall rating is that figure -17, since the average great team is about 17 points better than an "average" team.

UMass' 110 and 90, 20 better than an "average* team but +3 better than the average great team in the game. We will likely set up a 16-team tournament and would out the against the 16th beat new great team, Liberty University with a 107 and 105 for a -15. This means we'd expect UMass to be about 18 points better than Liberty in 100 possessions or about a 12-point favorite for a 66 possession game.

Then we have developed just the first part we need to do on the cards. Basic info so you know how good they are, and then their Stamina and which possessions we recommend each player is used (in the game the possessions start at 44 and to down to 1 as the final possession). 

We did not list the positions, but they are all in order, so the first player listed in the starting point guard (PG-1), then the starting shooting guard (SG-2) etc, with the sixth player starting the reserves as the back-up point guard etc.

The rest of the cards will be developed, but this is always the first step to research a new team.

 
Bradley - 1954 (7th Runner-Up)                  
Off 94, Def 85, Rating -8    
PlayerHtSeason StatsStaminaPlays possessions (44-1 is all)
John Kent6'113.0 Pts, 4.1 Reb3737-1
Bob Carney6'116.2 Pts, 7.0 Reb-NBA3737-1
Eddie King6'49.2 Pts, 4.3 Reb3737-1
Dick Estergard6'414.5 Pts, 12.3 Reb3737-1
Dick Petersen6'56.3 Pts, 5.9 Reb3737-1
Lee O'Connell6'23.2 Pts, 1.1 Reb7PG 44-38
John Riley6'22.0 Pts, 1.4 Reb7SG 44-38
Harvey Babetch6'26.1 Pts, 3.1 Reb7SF 44-38
Jerry Hansen6'45.4 Pts, 2.9 Reb7PF 44-38
Barney Kilcullen6'92.4 Pts, 3.8 Reb7C 44-38
Buffalo 2019 (22nd, Round 2)    
Off 110, Def 98, Rating -5    
PlayerHtSeason StatsStaminaPlays possessions (44-1 is all)
Davonta Jordan6'27.4 Pts, 3.2 Reb, 3.6 Ast3333-1
Jayvon Graves6'39.7 Pts, 4.2 Reb, 1.9 Ast3044-34,19-1
CJ Massinburg6'318.2 Pts, 6.5 Reb, 3.0 Ast4141-1
Jeremy Harris6'714.0 Pts, 6.2 Reb, 3.0 Ast4144-33, 29-1
Nick Perkins6'814.7 Pts, 7.4 Reb, 0.7 Ast3232-1
Dontay Caruthers6'18.6 Pts, 3.4 Reb, 2.8 Ast25PG 44-34, SG 33-20
Ronaldo Segu6'02.1 Pts, 0.9 Reb, 1.0 Ast5None
Jeenathan Williams6'53.2 Pts, 1.7 Reb, 0.2 Ast-NBA5SF 44-42
Tra'Von Fagan6'81.3 Pts, 1.2 Reb, 0.2 Ast5None
Montell McRae6'105.6 Pts, 3.4 Reb, 0.5 Ast16C 44-33, PF 32-30
Charlotte - 1977 (17th, Final 4)    
Off 112, Def 97, Rating -2    
PlayerHtSeason StatsStaminaPlays possessions (44-1 is all)
Melvin Watkins6'39.6 Pts, 3.7 Reb, 6.0 Ast3737-1
Chad Kinch6'415.4 Pts, 3.8 Reb, 3.8 Ast-NBA3737-1
Kevin King6'711.1 Pts, 5.0 Reb, 1.8 Ast3737-1
Lew Massey6'619.7 Pts, 6.8 Reb, 1.6 Ast3737-1
Cedric Maxwell6'822.3 Pts, 12.1 Reb, 2.1 Ast-NBA3737-1
Jeff Gruber6'25.6 Pts, 0.9 Reb, 1.4 Ast7PG 44-38
Lee Whitfield6'20.6 Pts, 0.5 Reb, 0.8 Ast7SG 44-38
Mike Hester6'73.1 Pts, 2.2 Reb, 0.0 Ast7SF 44-38
Ken Angel6'81.1 Pts, 1.1 Reb, 0.1 Ast7PF 44-38
Phil Scott6'83.1 Pts, 2.8 Reb, 0.3 Ast7C 44-38
Drake - 1969 (11th, Final 4)    
Off 112, Def 96, Rating -1  183 
PlayerHtSeason StatsStaminaPlays possessions (44-1 is all)
Willie McCarter6'320.4 Pts, 3.7 Reb-NBA3737-1
Dolph Pulliam6'413.3 Pts, 7.7 Reb3737-1
Al Williams6'68.8 Pts, 7.3 Reb-NBA3737-1
Willie Wise6'514.6 Pts, 11.4 Reb-NBA3737-1
Rick Wanamaker6'94.4 Pts, 3.4 Reb3737-1
Don Draper6'012.3 Pts, 2.4 Reb7PG 44-38
Gary Zeller6'26.3 Pts, 1.6 Reb-NBA7SG 44-38
Ron Gwin6'22.6 Pts, 1.4 Reb7SF 44-38
Larry Sharp6'91.6 Pts, 1.2 Reb7PF 44-38
Garry Odom6'83.8 Pts, 4.5 Reb7C 44-38
James Madison 2024 (68th, in season)    
Off 111, Def 106, Rating -12  183 
PlayerHtSeason StatsStaminaPlays possessions (44-1 is all)
Michael Green6'011.5 Pts, 1.3 Reb, 4.8 Ast3333-1
Noah Freidel6'410.9 Pts, 4.6 Reb, 1.4 Ast3744-34,26-1
Terrence Edwards6'617.2 Pts, 5.2 Reb, 3.0 Ast3944-30, 24-1
Julien Wooden6'89.8 Pts, 3.5 Reb, 1.7 Ast2929-1
TJ Bickerstaff6'915.8 Pts, 8.2 Reb, 1.4 Ast2733-25, 20-1
Bryant Randleman6'41.7 Pts, 0.7 Reb, 1.2 Ast5None
Xavier Brown6'27.0 Pts, 2.5 Reb, 2.3 Ast19PG 44-34, SG 33-27
Quincy Allen6'83.8 Pts, 1.4 Reb, 0.0 Ast5None
Raekwon Horton6'67.0 Pts, 4.4 Reb, 1.3 Ast24PF 44-30, SF 29-25, C 24-21
Jaylen Carey6'86.8 Pts, 4.6 Reb, 0.5 Ast11C 44-34
Liberty 2023 (48th, NIT 2nd)    
Off 107, Def 105, Rating -15  196 
PlayerHtSeason StatsStaminaPlays possessions (44-1 is all)
Colin Porter5'97.8 Pts, 2.6 Reb, 3.8 Ast3544, 34-1
Darius McGhee 105'922.8 Pts, 3.3 Reb, 3.0 Ast4343-1
Joseph Venzant6'34.2 Pts, 5.0 Reb, 0.4 Ast2626-1
Kyle Rode6'710.9 Pts, 3.5 Reb, 3.5 Ast3939-1
Blake Preston6'96.7 Pts, 5.1 Reb, 1.4 Ast2020-1
Brody Peebles6'27.4 Pts, 1.8 Reb, 0.6 Ast16SG 44, PG 43-35
Jonathan Jackson6'41.4 Pts, 0.2 Reb, 0.1 Ast5None
Isiah Warfield6'52.9 Pts, 2.3 Reb, 0.9 Ast18SF 44-27
Zach Cleveland6'73.4 Pts, 3.4 Reb, 1.8 Ast5PF 44-40
Shiloh Robinson6'77.6 Pts, 3.6 Reb, 0.9 Ast24C 44-21
Massachusetts - 1996 (1st, Final 4)    
Off 110, Def 90, Rating 3    
PlayerHtSeason StatsStaminaPlays possessions (44-1 is all)
Edgar Padilla6'28.9 Pts, 3.5 Reb, 6.7 Ast4944-1
Carmelo Travieso6'212.6 Pts, 3.2 Reb, 2.1 Ast4844-1
Donta Bright6'614.5 Pts, 5.8 Reb, 1.7 Ast3944-39, 33-1
Dana Dingle6'710.1 Pts, 7.4 Reb, 1.5 Ast4344-40, 38-1
Marcus Camby6'1120.5 Pts, 8.2 Reb, 1.8 Ast-NBA3939-1
Charlton Clarke6'31.4 Pts, 0.5 Reb, 0.7 Ast5None
Tyrone Weeks6'75.8 Pts, 5.2 Reb, 0.4 Ast20C 44-40, PF 39, SF 38-34
Rigoberto Nunez6'70.5 Pts, 1.0 Reb, 0.3 Ast5None
Inus Norville6'92.4 Pts, 2.1 Reb, 0.0 Ast5None
Ted Cottrell6'90.9 Pts, 0.9 Reb, 0.0 Ast5None
Nevada 2004 (20th, Sweet 16)    
Off 107, Def 96, Rating -6  209 
PlayerHtSeason StatsStaminaPlays possessions (44-1 is all)
Todd Okeson6'011.2 Pts, 2.8 Reb, 3.9 Ast4141-1
Kirk Snyder6'618.8 Pts, 5.7 Reb, 3.4 Ast-NBA4144-42,37-1
Garry Hill-Thomas6'49.8 Pts, 3.6 Reb, 2.3 Ast3535-1
Kevinn Pinkney6'109.4 Pts, 5.7 Reb, 0.9 Ast-NBA3444-34, 26-1
Nick Fazekas6'1112.6 Pts, 7.6 Reb, 0.5 Ast-NBA3333-1
Kyle Shiloh6'31.8 Pts, 1.2 Reb, 0.9 Ast5None
Seth Taylor (1-3 3pt, 4-6 pt 7-8 FT, 9-14 miss 3, 15-20 miss 2)6'31.0 Pts, 0.4 Reb, 0.0 Ast5None
Marcelus Kemp6'54.6 Pts, 1.4 Reb, 0.8 Ast11PG 44-42, SG 41-38
Jermaine Washington6'54.1 Pts, 3.8 Reb, 0.7 Ast13SF 44-36
Sean Paul6'93.4 Pts, 3.8 Reb, 0.9 Ast18C 44-34, PF 33-27
New Mexico - 1974 (NR, Sweet 16)    
Off 109, Def 95, Rating -3  -11 
PlayerHtSeason StatsStaminaPlays possessions (44-1 is all)
Wendell Taylor6'19.1 Pts, 2.3 Reb, 3.8 Ast2929-1
Gabe Nava6'210.2 Pts, 2.3 Reb, 3.1 Ast3737-1
Mark Saiers6'711.1 Pts, 6.5 Reb, 2.3 Ast3838-1
Bernard Hardin6'517.1 Pts, 5.9 Reb, 1.3 Ast39PF 44-36, 29-1
Bill Hagins6'712.5 Pts, 9.0 Reb, 1.6 Ast3535-1
Pat King6'03.4 Pts, 1.3 Reb, 2.6 Ast15PG 44-30
Bob Toppert6'44.7 Pts, 1.8 Reb, 2.2 Ast13SG 44-38, SF 37-32
Bruce Battle6'53.7 Pts, 2.6 Reb, 0.7 Ast6SF 44-39
Rich Pokorski6'68.3 Pts, 2.9 Reb, 0.6 Ast14C 44-36, PF 35-30
Paul Kruse7'23.0 Pts, 2.4 Reb, 0.3 Ast5None
New Mexico St. - 1970 (5th, Final 4)    
Off 116, Def 100, Rating -1  202 
PlayerHtSeason StatsStaminaPlays possessions (44-1 is all)
Jimmy Collins6'224.3 Pts, 4.6 Reb, 2.9 Ast-NBA3737-1
Chito Reyes6'68.2 Pts, 4.6 Reb, 1.0 Ast3737-1
Roy Neal6'65.5 Pts, 5.2 Reb, 0.3 Ast3737-1
Jeff Smith6'812.8 Pts, 8.3 Reb, 0.5 Ast3737-1
Sam Lacey6'1017.7 Pts, 15.9 Reb, 1.3 Ast-NBA3737-1
Charlie Criss5'812.5 Pts, 2.3 Reb, 2.9 Ast-NBA7PG 44-38
Milt Horne6'04.4 Pts, 1.8 Reb, 3.5 Ast7SG 44-38
Bill Moore6'32.0 Pts, 1.3 Reb, 0.3 Ast7SF 44-38
John Burgess6'54.7 Pts, 5.5 Reb, 1.9 Ast7PF 44-38
Lonnie Lefevre6'81.3 Pts, 1.9 Reb, 0.1 Ast7C 44-38
Oregon St. - 1982 (4th, Elite 8)    
Off 104, Def 85, Rating 2  183 
PlayerHtSeason StatsStaminaPlays possessions (44-1 is all)
William Brew6'19.2 Pts, 1.6 Reb, 3.4 Ast5044-1
Lester Conner6'414.9 Pts, 5.4 Reb, 5.1 Ast-NBA5044-1
Danny Evans6'511.3 Pts, 2.1 Reb, 1.7 Ast3737-1
Charlie Sitton6'812.9 Pts, 4.3 Reb, 2.2 Ast-NBA3944-38,32-1
A.C. Green6'98.6 Pts, 5.3 Reb, 1.1 Ast-NBA3838-1
Alan Tait6'20.5 Pts, 0.5 Reb, 0.1 Ast0None
Jamie Stangel6'71.4 Pts, 0.8 Reb, 0.1 Ast0None
Jeff Wilson6'71.2 Pts, 0.8 Reb, 0.2 Ast0None
Rob Holbrook6'86.7 Pts, 3.1 Reb, 2.3 Ast21SF 44-38, PF 37-33
Greg Wiltjer6'115.4 Pts, 3.7 Reb, 0.5 Ast12C 44-39
Richmond 2011 (39th, Sweet 16)    
Off 108, Def 99, Rating -8  197 
PlayerHtSeason StatsStaminaPlays possessions (44-1 is all)
Kevin Anderson6'016.6 Pts, 2.8 Reb, 3.3 Ast4444-1
Cedrick Lindsay6'14.4 Pts, 1.4 Reb, 1.6 Ast2020-1
Kevin Smith6'53.9 Pts, 4.2 Reb, 3.4 Ast3131-1
Justin Harper6'1017.9 Pts, 6.9 Reb, 1.2 Ast-NBA4141-1
Dan Geriot6'99.5 Pts, 3.8 Reb, 2.8 Ast3030-1
Derrick Williams (3pt 1, 2pt 2-6, FT 7-9)6'61.7 Pts, 1.0 Reb, 0.1 Ast0None
Darien Brothers6'37.6 Pts, 1.8 Reb, 1.1 Ast24SG 44-21
Francis-Cedric Martel6'64.6 Pts, 3.6 Reb, 0.9 Ast13SF 44-32
Darrius Garrett6'91.9 Pts, 4.1 Reb, 0.3 Ast14C 44-31
Josh Duinker6'111.8 Pts, 1.1 Reb, 0.2 Ast0PF 44-42
Temple - 1958 (5th, Final 4)    
Off 105, Def 88, Rating 0    
PlayerHtSeason StatsStaminaPlays possessions (44-1 is all)
Guy Rodgers6'020.1 Pts, 6.6 Reb, 5.2 Ast-NBA3737-1
Bill Kennedy5'1113.5 Pts, 3.3 Reb3737-1
Mel Brodsky6'210.9 Pts, 7.5 Reb3737-1
Tink Van Patton6'86.6 Pts, 10.5 Reb3737-1
Jay Norman6'313.0 Pts, 11.9 Reb3737-1
Joe Goldenberg5'71.4 Pts, 0.5 Reb7PG 44-38
Jack Peepe6'21.1 Pts, 1.1 Reb7SG 44-38
Ophie Franklin6'42.1 Pts, 2.5 Reb7SF 44-38
Pete Goss6'71.3 Pts, 1.4 Reb7PF 44-38
Dan Fleming6'65.0 Pts, 4.3 Reb7C 44-38
Tulsa - 2000 (18th, Sweet 16)    
Off 108, Def 95, Rating -4  183 
PlayerHtSeason StatsStaminaPlays possessions (44-1 is all)
Tony Heard6'09.7 Pts, 2.3 Reb, 3.4 Ast3638-1
Marcus Hill6'511.2 Pts, 4.2 Reb, 2.8 Ast3544-39,31-1
Greg Harrington6'210.8 Pts, 2.7 Reb, 2.9 Ast3744-29,19-1
Eric Coley6'511.3 Pts, 6.8 Reb, 3.4 Ast3844-35,28-1
Brandon Kurtz6'1011.2 Pts, 7.0 Reb, 1.6 Ast3434-1
Dante Swanson5'105.5 Pts, 1.2 Reb, 1.0 Ast13PG 44-39, SG 38-32
Antonio Reed5'101.8 Pts, 1.1 Reb, 0.9 Ast5None
Kevin Johnson6'72.4 Pts, 1.5 Reb, 0.5 Ast5None
Charlie Davis6'72.5 Pts, 2.5 Reb, 0.2 Ast5None
David Shelton6'613.5 Pts, 4.5 Reb, 0.5 Ast25C 44-35, PF 34-29,SF 28-20
Washington St. 2008 (10th, Sweet 16)    
Off 109, Def 97, Rating -5  197 
PlayerHtSeason StatsStaminaPlays possessions (44-1 is all)
Taylor Rochestie6'110.4 Pts, 3.2 Reb, 4.7 Ast4644-1
Derrick Low6'214.1 Pts, 1.8 Reb, 1.6 Ast4343-1
Kyle Weaver6'612.2 Pts, 5.3 Reb, 4.3 Ast-NBA4344,42-1
Robbie Cowgill6'107.3 Pts, 5.1 Reb, 0.7 Ast3544-43,33-1
Aron Baynes6'1010.4 Pts, 6.0 Reb, 0.3 Ast-NBA2828-1
Thomas Abercrombie )1-2, 3-4,5-6, 7-16)6'61.2 Pts, 1.5 Reb, 0.5 Ast0None
Stephen Sauls (1-3, 4-6, 7)6'32.1 Pts, 0.8 Reb, 0.5 Ast0None
Daven Harmeling6'75.6 Pts, 2.2 Reb, 0.8 Ast20SG 44, SF 43, PF 42-34,C33-29
Caleb Forrest6'83.4 Pts, 2.0 Reb, 0.2 Ast8C 37-34
Nikola Koprivica6'72.5 Pts, 1.0 Reb, 0.7 Ast7C 44-38
Western Kentucky - 1966 (10th, Sweet 16)    
Off 111, Def 96, Rating -2    
PlayerHtSeason StatsStaminaPlays possessions (44-1 is all)
Dwight Smith6'516.1 Pts, 9.9 Reb3737-1
Clem Haskins6'320.4 Pts, 10.0 Reb3737-1
Wayne Chapman6'613.3 Pts, 4.3 Reb3737-1
Greg Smith6'59.5 Pts, 10.3 Reb3737-1
Steve Cunningham6'515.1 Pts, 7.4 Reb3737-1
Mike Fawcett5'102.1 Pts, 0.6 Reb7PG 44-38
Butch Kaufman5'104.0 Pts, 1.0 Reb7SG 44-38
Norm Weaver6'52.9 Pts, 1.7 Reb7SF 44-38
Pearl Hicks6'72.3 Pts, 3.0 Reb7PF 44-38
Jack Butler6'51.8 Pts, 1.8 Reb7C 44-38

Thursday, November 23, 2023

Sun Belt with JMU and Return of Value Add Basketball Rankings

All-Sun Belt Conf      Team                 Value  AdjO   AdjD      Notes                                   
Terence LewisLouisiana8.74131.2102.913-seed, 26-8, Poss 20.3%
Taevion KinseyMarshall8.54122.3101.324-8, Poss 26.4%
Greg WilliamsLouisiana6.57122.1102.913-seed, 26-8, Poss 18.6%
Isaiah MooreSouth Alabama6.45106.3100.419-16 (PG), Poss 33%
Felipe HaaseSouthern Miss6.10114.7100.625-8, Poss 22%
2nd T-Sun Belt ConfTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Zay WilliamsTroy5.99115.4101.120-13, Poss 20.9%
Terrence EdwardsJames Madison5.5110999.822-11, Poss 27.3%
Andrew TaylorMarshall5.13103.5101.324-8 (PG), Poss 28.5%
Chaunce JenkinsOld Dominion5.01105.8103.719-12 (PG), Poss 24.3%
Jordan BrownLouisiana3.91106102.913-seed, 26-8, Poss 29.3%

Above is a very late All-Sun Belt team from the 2022-23 season, and we will be updating these and the top 300 players at www.valueaddbasketball.com to go along with the rankings going back to the 2001-02 season. While this system received rave reviews from Sports Illustrated, ESPN, Fox Sports and many others, last season we skipped because we lost the ability to rank all 4000 players who take the court for D1 action.

The big addition from a few years ago after the beat Michigan in football was Appalachian State, and now its James Madison University moving up to D1 to break the Top 25 in both football and basketball this year to give some real excitement around the Sun Belt.

Team                         2023  2024  2025   Seed23   Rnk24
Appalachian St.SBSBSB 104
Arkansas St.SBSBSB 171
Coastal CarolinaSBSBSB 274
Georgia SouthernSBSBSB 322
Georgia St.SBSBSB 188
James MadisonSBSBSB 67
LouisianaSBSBSB13149
Louisiana MonroeSBSBSB 291
MarshallSBSBSB 172
Old DominionSBSBSB 204
South AlabamaSBSBSB 176
Southern MissSBSBSB 217
Texas St.SBSBSB 221
TroySBSBSB 223

Better late than never - this is one of 32 lists of All-Conference teams based on the "resurrected" Value Add Basketball rankings at www.valueaddbasketball.com. The other 31 releases of Conference teams will all include this same explanation for the rest of the blog, including the 10 returning All-Americans and top 60 players from last season listed further down.

This paragraph is of interest to stat nerds only. The offensive ratings were easier to recreate, since the basis was to pull hundreds of players ranked as the most efficient last season (AdjO at www.kenpom.com) and adjusting their figures for their percent of possessions. A player who can produce about 1.2 points per time he has the ball who also gets the ball 25% of the time against tough competition and as part of a strong defense can be All-American level, but a player who doesn't get the ball nearly as often but produces even more at 1.3 points per possession can still be All-Conference even if fans feel other players handling and shooting the ball more are better due to higher points scored per game.

The new simplified system weighs their ability to produce points against the Adjusted Defense (AdjD) - that is how many points per 100 trips would their team allow against an average D1 team. This accounts both for defense and for level of competition. We also note if a player is a Point Guard, the most important position on the court.

The resulting "Value" listed in the third column is the Value Add of points the player would improve an average team over if he could not play if a decent replacement took his place. Zach Edey was by far the most valuable player in the country last year at 13.17 meaning typically he would turn a 65-70 loss for a team into a 72-64 win - a 13 point swing. The notes off to the first indicated the team's record, their seed if they made the tournament, and then if they went to the NBA in the 2023 draft or are projected to go in the 2024 or 2025 draft.

1st and 2nd Team Returning All-Americans; and Top 60 Players from Last Season
 
The table below is the list of the 30 most valuable players in college basketball for the 2022-23 season according to our simplified www.valueaddbasketball.com rankings. Obviously most of these top players finished their eligibility or went pro so are no longer playing. However, if we made this our All-American teams of returning players including transfers at their new school the headline would be from Creighton.

1st Team Returning All-Americans - Value Add Basketball calculates that Creighton now has two of the three most valuable players in 2022-23 in returning Ryan Kalkbrenner and Utah State transfer Steven Ashworth. Ironically, Thursday it was Colorado State that handed Creighton its first loss - a team that Ashworth had dominated four of seven times in conference games at Utah State. The other 1st Team All-Americans based on last year's Value Add would be J'Wan Roberts returning for Houston, and then Tylor Perry who transferred from North Texas to Kansas State.

Most Valuable Player for 2nd Year. However, the far and away Most Valuable Player in the Country could challenge Anthony DavisJon Scheyer and Zion Williamson for as the most Valuable college player of the century in the All-Time Value Add Basketball Rankings - Zach Edey who was almost 2 points better than anyone in the country last year at Purdue and has them at No. 1 this season.

2nd Team Returning All-Americans - The 6th most valuable returning player according to Value Add is Marquette Point Guard Tyler Kolek. He would be joined on a second team All-American squad of returning players by Tennessee's Santiago Vescovi, Texas transfer from Oral Roberts Max Abmas, Duke's Ryan Young, Arizona's Azuolas Tubelis and finally Cam Spencer, who transferred from Rutgers to UConn.

In all, 18 of the top 30 players finished their college careers, leaving those 10 returning All-Americans and then two other players - JaKobe Coles of TCU and USC's Boogie Ellis.
 
All-American 1st Team    Team               Value    AdjO  AdjDNotes                                                
Zach EdeyPurdue13.17125.994.51-seed, 29-6, nba 58 in 2024
Adama Sanogo (gone)Connecticut11.37122.690.94-seed, 31-8, Poss 26.4%
Marcus Sasser (gone)Houston11.25123.490.41-seed, 33-4, nba 25 in 2023
Ryan KalkbrennerCreighton10.80133.493.26-seed, 24-13, Poss 19.4%
Steven Ashworth (Creigh)Utah St.10.72127.798.910-seed, 26-9 (PG), Poss 21.6%
All-American 2nd TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Tylor Perry (K-State)North Texas10.37124.394.131-7, Poss 24.4%
Brandon Miller (gone)Alabama10.23117.088.21-seed, 31-6, nba 2 in 2023
Xavier Castaneda (gone)Akron9.94121.9103.422-11 (PG), Poss 29.4%
J'Wan RobertsHouston9.90127.990.41-seed, 33-4, Poss 18.4%
Jordan Hawkins (gone)Connecticut9.88121.290.94-seed, 31-8, nba 14 in 2023
All-American 3rd TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Jaime Jaquez (gone)UCLA9.80113.1882-seed, 31-6, nba 18 in 2023
Jalen Pickett (gone)Penn St.9.66118.7101.110-seed, 23-14 (PG), nba 32 in 2023
Jordan Walker (gone)UAB9.64114.797.929-10 (PG), Poss 30.6%
Tyler KolekMarquette9.6311896.72-seed, 29-7 (PG), Poss 24.1%
Santiago VescoviTennessee9.52114.287.54-seed, 25-11 (PG), Poss 18.8%
All-American 4th TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Max Abmas (Texas)Oral Roberts9.47120.2102.212-seed, 30-5 (PG), Poss 27.6%
Trayce Jackson-Davis (g)Indiana9.45118.597.24-seed, 23-12, nba 57 in 2023
Ryan YoungDuke9.37128.793.95-seed, 27-9, Poss 18.3%
Kendric Davis (grad)Memphis9.24111.196.18-seed, 26-9 (PG), Poss 31.6%
Drew Timme (grad)Gonzaga9.21119.699.33-seed, 31-6, Poss 30.6%
All-American 5th TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Markquis Nowell (gone)Kansas St.8.92111953-seed, 26-10 (PG), Poss 27.6%
Souley Boum (gone)Xavier8.87119.298.63-seed, 27-10 (PG), Poss 21.2%
Oscar Tshiebwe (gone)Kentucky8.83122.698.86-seed, 22-12, Poss 24.5%
Terence Lewis (gone)Louisiana8.74131.2102.913-seed, 26-8, Poss 20.3%
Darius McGhee (gone)Liberty8.68114.597.527-9, Poss 33.4%
All-American 6th TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Azuolas TubelisArizona8.68116.196.32-seed, 28-7, Poss 28.7%
Cam Spencer (UConn)Rutgers8.66119.490.819-15, Poss 19.8%
Sir'Jabari Rice (gone)Texas8.66116.392.12-seed, 29-9, Poss 23.4%
JaKobe ColesTCU8.64118.494.36-seed, 22-13, Poss 23.4%
Boogie EllisUSC8.56113.397.510-seed, 22-11 (PG), Poss 25.7%