Saturday, May 22, 2021

NL Most Improved and Biggest Disappointments

More than a quarter through the MLB season, we compared our NL Statis-Pro cards to each player's actual stats this season to adjust only the players who are dramatically better or worse than their card.

Adjusting Pitcher's Whose ERA is at least 1.00 Better or Worse than Card

In general, if a player's ERA this season is at least 1.00 better than the projected ERA on his card, then we improve his card's PB by one. (possible PBs from worst to best are 2-4, 2-5, 2-6, 4-7, 2-7, 2-8 and the best 2-9). Jacob deGrom's ERA is much improved, from a project 3.04 to his current 0.68, but he is already a PB: 2-9 so cannot improve.

Likewise if it's more than 2.00 better his PB improves by 2, and if his ERA is at least 1.00 worse then the PB is one worse etc.

Adjusting a pitcher's card actually improves their ERA by about 0.50, so we are giving these pitchers a new PB basically based on the average of the projected ERA used for the card and their current ERA.

We put some limits on it - such as not dropping a pitcher below the average PB: 4-7. Pitchers had to have thrown at least 23 innings (starting pitchers) or in at least 12 games (relievers) to be considered, and if a pitcher had now thrown that much they were considered to have a 5.00 ERA for these calculations.

The San Francisco Giants were by far the most improved staff with Johnny Cueto, Anthony DeSclafani, Kevin Gausman, Tyler Rogers and Alex Wood all improving by two PB. The following is the list of every Giants pitcher's card for which we adjusted the PB, listing what was on the card originally followed by the adjusted PB. The list of all NL pitchers we adjusted appear in the table at the bottom of this blog.

Adjusting Batters Whose OPS is at least 1.00 Better or Worse than Card

For any batter whose OPS this season is at least .150 batters better or worse than the projected OPS used for their cards, we likewise increased or decreased the home run range by two, and then if at least .250 by three, etc. While the Reds pitchers cards were close to the worst hurt by these adjustments, their batters were the most improved. 

Castellanos Home Run Range improved by 2, from 26-33 to 26.35, Naquin improved from 27-32 to 27-34 etc. Adding or subtracting one home run number actually improves the cards OPS by 0.40, so like with pitchers we are basically adjusting these players by averaging their current OPS with the projected one used to make the card.

The adjustments for all affected batters are listed just a little lower in this blog, before the pitchers' adjustments.

When you add up the changes for each team's pitchers and batters, and grade both their bats and pitchers on a scale of +10 to -10, the most improved team cards overall are the San Francisco Giants (0 for batter but +10 for pitchers for an overall +10), and the team that is much worse is the Arizona Diamondbacks (-6 batting and -3 pitching for an overall -9).
TeamBat ImprovePitch ImproveOverall

Our Statis-Pro NL season was proceeding with 10 teams, but with the Giants improving so much we ran the math for the Giants and Phillies as well in consideration of possibly putting them back in the league. Here are all the batters.

All Adjusted NL Batters

N AhmedARIWorse28-3228-28
A CabreraARIBetter27-3227-33
C KellyARIMuch Better24-2824-34
T LocastroARIWorse31-3228-28
J VanMeterARIWorse23-2723-25
Daulton VarshoARIMuch Worse26-3126-26
C WalkerARIWorse26-3226-28
W ContrerasATLMuch Better26-2826-33
T d'ArnaudATLWorse28-3428-32
M OzunaATLMuch Worse28-3628-33
C PacheATLMuch Worse27-3227-27
A RileyATLBetter24-3124-32
K BryantCHCMuch Better24-3124-33
J HeywardCHCWorse26-3126-27
N HoernerCHCMuch Better32-3332-35
J MarisnickCHCMuch Better25-3125-33
N CastellanosCINMuch Better26-3326-35
T NaquinCINMuch Better27-3227-34
T StephensonCINBetter25-2725-28
E SuárezCINWorse21-2821-26
J WinkerCINMuch Better26-3226-35
G LuxLADWorse27-3327-31
Z McKinstryLADMuch Better25-2725-31
E RiosLADMuch Worse22-2822-23
J BradleyMILWorse25-3125-27
K HiuraMILMuch Worse24-3224-27
O NarváezMILMuch Better25-2825-32
Daniel RobertsonMILMuch Worse25-2622-22
Christian YelichMILWorse25-3225-28
P AlonsoNYMWorse18-2818-26
M ConfortoNYMWorse25-3225-28
J.D. DavisNYMMuch Better26-3226-35
F LindorNYMWorse28-3528-33
J McCannNYMWorse26-3226-28
Tomas NidoNYMMuch Better25-2725-31
D SmithNYMWorse28-3428-32
A BohmPHIWorse32-3532-33
D GregoriusPHIWorse28-3528-33
A KnappPHIMuch Worse25-2724-24
J CronenworthSDBetter31-3231-33
M MachadoSDWorse26-3426-32
Will MyersSDWorse24-3224-28
T PhamSDWorse26-3126-27
Brandon BeltSFWorse25-3125-27
A DickersonSFWorse28-3428-32
B PoseySFMuch Better33-3433-37
M CarpenterSTLWorse21-2421-22
A KniznerSTLWorse28-3228-28
Y MolinaSTLMuch Better31-3331-35
J BellWSHWorse24-3124-27
R ZimmermanWSHBetter26-3226-33

All Adjusted NL Pitchers
PlayerTEAMChangeCard PBNew Card
Stefan CrichtonARIWorse2-74-7
Chris DevenskiARIWorse2-74-7
Joakim SoriaARIWorse2-74-7
Ian AndersonATLBetter4-72-7
Grant DaytonATLWorse2-74-7
Max FriedATLMuch Worse2-84-7
Luke JacksonATLBetter2-82-9
Chris MartinATLMuch Worse2-92-7
Tyler MatzekATLBetter2-72-8
Huascar YnoaATLMuch Better2-44-7
Andrew ChafinCHCBetter2-72-8
Craig KimbrelCHCMuch Better2-72-9
Dillon MaplesCHCMuch Better4-72-8
Brad WieckCHCWorse2-74-7
Tejay AntoneCINMuch Better2-54-7
Cam BedrosianCINWorse2-74-7
Luis CastilloCINMuch Worse2-92-7
Amir GarrettCINMuch Worse2-72-6
Wade MileyCINBetter2-64-7
Trevor BauerLADBetter2-82-9
Caleb FergusonLADWorse2-74-7
Victor GonzalezLADMuch Better4-72-8
Brusdar GraterolLADWorse2-74-7
Kenley JansenLADBetter2-82-9
Joe KellyLADWorse2-82-7
Corey KnebelLADWorse2-74-7
Dustin MayLADBetter2-64-7
Jimmy NelsonLADBetter2-72-8
Dennis SantanaLADMuch Worse2-72-6
Blake TreinenLADMuch Better2-72-9
Freddy PeraltaMILBetter2-72-8
Brandon WoodruffMILBetter2-82-9
Jacob BarnesNYMMuch Worse2-72-6
Jeurys FamiliaNYMMuch Better4-72-8
Tommy HunterNYMWorse2-74-7
Joey LucchesiNYMWorse2-74-7
Seth LugoNYMWorse2-74-7
Marcus StromanNYMBetter2-72-8
Taijuan WalkerNYMMuch Better2-62-7
Daniel ZamoraNYMWorse2-74-7
Archie BradleyPHIWorse2-82-7
Connor BrogdonPHIWorse2-74-7
Zack WheelerPHIBetter2-82-9
Tim HillSDBetter2-72-8
Dinelson LametSDWorse2-82-7
Mark MelanconSDBetter2-82-9
Joe MusgroveSDBetter2-72-8
Emilio PaganSDBetter2-72-8
Craig StammenSDBetter2-72-8
Ryan WeathersSDMuch Better2-52-7
Johnny CuetoSFMuch Better2-54-7
Anthony DeSclafaniSFMuch Better2-54-7
Kevin GausmanSFMuch Better2-72-9
Reyes MorontaSFWorse2-74-7
Tyler RogersSFMuch Better2-72-9
Alex WoodSFMuch Better4-72-8
Giovanny GallegosSTLMuch Better2-44-7
John GantSTLMuch Better4-72-8
Jordan HicksSTLWorse2-74-7
Kwang HyunKimSTLBetter4-72-7
Andrew MillerSTLWorse2-82-7
Alex ReyesSTLMuch Better4-72-8
Sam ClayWSHMuch Better2-62-7
Patrick CorbinWSHMuch Worse2-84-7
Brad HandWSHWorse2-92-8
Will HarrisWSHWorse2-82-7
Daniel HudsonWSHMuch Better2-52-7
Austin VothWSHMuch Better2-52-7

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