NL Card Adjustments for Most Improved and Most Disappointing Players

On May 22, we compared the projected stats to their actual stats to see which NL cards should be improved or reduced. If a pitcher's ERA was much better than the projected ERA when making the card, we would adjust it up based on a formula. If a batter's OPS was much better than projected, we would adjust by adding Home Run numbers to his ranged based on a formula.

In each case, we did not adjust the new card "all the way" to base it on the first two months of the season. Rather we averaged the projected stats to the actual stats. 

We listed most of these adjustments earlier, but this table adds the players from our four relegated teams, and for each teams shows if the card adjustment makes it "much better," "better," "worse," or "much worse." For batters it shows the Home Run Range on the projected card and the new Home Run Range. On the pitcher's card it shows the original PB and the new one.

We will try to go through the AL soon to do the same.

Pitcher or	TEAM	Change	Card PB	Card ERA	New PB	Adj. ERA
Batter			Card HR	Card OPS	New HR	Adj. OPS
N Ahmed	ARI	Worse	28-32	0.739	28-28	0.499
A Cabrera	ARI	Better	27-32	0.727	27-33	0.866
Stefan Crichton	ARI	Worse	2-7	4.01	4-7	5.54
Chris Devenski	ARI	Worse	2-7	4.00	4-7	5.00
C Kelly	ARI	Much Better	24-28	0.749	24-34	1.103
T Locastro	ARI	Worse	31-32	0.752	28-28	0.543
Joakim Soria	ARI	Worse	2-7	3.72	4-7	5.00
J VanMeter	ARI	Worse	23-27	0.725	23-25	0.523
Daulton Varsho	ARI	Much Worse	26-31	0.768	26-26	0.476
C Walker	ARI	Worse	26-32	0.808	26-28	0.580
Ian Anderson	ATL	Better	4-7	4.11	2-7	2.82
W Contreras	ATL	Much Better	26-28	0.635	26-33	0.938
T d'Arnaud	ATL	Worse	28-34	0.771	28-32	0.594
Grant Dayton	ATL	Worse	2-7	3.86	4-7	5.00
Max Fried	ATL	Much Worse	2-8	3.39	4-7	5.46
Luke Jackson	ATL	Better	2-8	3.58	2-9	1.62
Chris Martin	ATL	Much Worse	2-9	2.76	2-7	5.00
Tyler Matzek	ATL	Better	2-7	4.11	2-8	2.84
M Ozuna	ATL	Much Worse	28-36	0.904	28-33	0.645
C Pache	ATL	Much Worse	27-32	0.702	27-27	0.358
A Riley	ATL	Better	24-31	0.770	24-32	0.914
Huascar Ynoa	ATL	Much Better	2-4	6.75	4-7	3.02
K Bryant	CHC	Much Better	24-31	0.829	24-33	1.023
Andrew Chafin	CHC	Better	2-7	3.68	2-8	2.57
J Heyward	CHC	Worse	26-31	0.765	26-27	0.595
N Hoerner	CHC	Much Better	32-33	0.698	32-35	0.885
Craig Kimbrel	CHC	Much Better	2-7	3.75	2-9	1.02
Dillon Maples	CHC	Much Better	4-7	4.15	2-8	1.72
J Marisnick	CHC	Much Better	25-31	0.760	25-33	0.973
Brad Wieck	CHC	Worse	2-7	3.76	4-7	5.00
Tejay Antone	CIN	Much Better	2-5	4.84	4-7	1.93
Cam Bedrosian	CIN	Worse	2-7	3.73	4-7	5.00
N Castellanos	CIN	Much Better	26-33	0.796	26-35	1.036
Luis Castillo	CIN	Much Worse	2-9	3.25	2-7	7.44
Amir Garrett	CIN	Much Worse	2-7	3.88	2-6	6.92
Wade Miley	CIN	Better	2-6	4.49	4-7	3.50
T Naquin	CIN	Much Better	27-32	0.690	27-34	0.866
T Stephenson	CIN	Better	25-27	0.651	25-28	0.756
E Suárez	CIN	Worse	21-28	0.795	21-26	0.594
J Winker	CIN	Much Better	26-32	0.816	26-35	1.081
YencyAlmonte	COL	Much Worse	4-7	4.26	2-4	10.93
DanielBard	COL	Much worse	2-8	3.42	2-6	5.63
C Blackmon	COL	Worse	33-37	0.812	33-36	0.695
C Cron	COL	Better	24-32	0.792	24-33	0.900
E Díaz	COL	Much Worse	32-34	0.647	31-31	0.323
S Hilliard	COL	Much Worse	23-28	0.685	23-26	0.478
GermanMarquez	COL	Much Worse	2-8	3.32	4-7	4.82
R McMahon	COL	Better	24-31	0.728	23-32	0.813
AntonioSenzatela	COL	Worse	2-6	4.60	2-5	5.18
Trevor Bauer	LAD	Better	2-8	3.31	2-9	1.98
Caleb Ferguson	LAD	Worse	2-7	3.93	4-7	5.00
Victor Gonzalez	LAD	Much Better	4-7	4.07	2-8	1.69
Brusdar Graterol	LAD	Worse	2-7	3.95	4-7	5.00
Kenley Jansen	LAD	Better	2-8	3.49	2-9	1.37
Joe Kelly	LAD	Worse	2-8	3.60	2-7	5.00
Corey Knebel	LAD	Worse	2-7	3.72	4-7	5.00
G Lux	LAD	Worse	27-33	0.857	27-31	0.675
Dustin May	LAD	Better	2-6	4.49	4-7	2.74
Z McKinstry	LAD	Much Better	25-27	0.713	25-31	0.883
Jimmy Nelson	LAD	Better	2-7	4.17	2-8	2.41
E Rios	LAD	Much Worse	22-28	0.811	22-23	0.354
Dennis Santana	LAD	Much Worse	2-7	4.17	2-6	6.92
Blake Treinen	LAD	Much Better	2-7	3.71	2-9	1.89
B Anderson	MIA	Worse	22-31		22-28	0.645
J Berti	MIA	Worse	27-26		26-26	0.572
J Chisholm Jr.	MIA	Much Better	15-18		15-22	0.909
YimiGarcia	MIA	Much Better	2-7		2-9	1.45
S Marte	MIA	Better	33-36		33-37	0.912
TrevorRogers	mia	much better	2-6		2-8	1.74
C Wallach	MIA	Worse	23-26		23-25	0.535
J Bradley	MIL	Worse	25-31	0.720	25-27	0.539
K Hiura	MIL	Much Worse	24-32	0.813	24-27	0.513
O Narváez	MIL	Much Better	25-28	0.741	25-32	0.937
Freddy Peralta	MIL	Better	2-7	3.85	2-8	2.40
Daniel Robertson	MIL	Much Worse	25-26	0.718	22-22	0.314
Brandon Woodruff	MIL	Better	2-8	3.46	2-9	1.58
Christian Yelich	MIL	Worse	25-32	0.917	25-28	0.703
P Alonso	NYM	Worse	18-28	0.923	18-26	0.769
Jacob Barnes	NYM	Much Worse	2-7	3.80	2-6	7.71
M Conforto	NYM	Worse	25-32	0.918	25-28	0.692
J.D. Davis	NYM	Much Better	26-32	0.818	26-35	1.089
Jeurys Familia	NYM	Much Better	4-7	4.29	2-8	2.45
Tommy Hunter	NYM	Worse	2-7	3.74	4-7	5.00
F Lindor	NYM	Worse	28-35	0.834	28-33	0.596
Joey Lucchesi	NYM	Worse	2-7	4.02	4-7	5.00
Seth Lugo	NYM	Worse	2-7	3.85	4-7	5.00
J McCann	NYM	Worse	26-32	0.749	26-28	0.513
Tomas Nido	NYM	Much Better	25-27	0.661	25-31	0.887
D Smith	NYM	Worse	28-34	0.848	28-32	0.624
Marcus Stroman	NYM	Better	2-7	3.91	2-8	2.75
Taijuan Walker	NYM	Much Better	2-6	4.28	2-7	2.05
Daniel Zamora	NYM	Worse	2-7	3.92	4-7	5.00
A Bohm	PHI	Worse	32-35	0.791	32-33	0.591
Archie Bradley	PHI	Worse	2-8	3.42	2-7	5.00
Connor Brogdon	PHI	Worse	2-7	3.51	4-7	5.00
D Gregorius	PHI	Worse	28-35	0.784	28-33	0.630
A Knapp	PHI	Much Worse	25-27	0.729	24-24	0.448
Zack Wheeler	PHI	Better	2-8	3.61	2-9	2.52
KyleCrick	PIT	Much Better	2-7		2-9	1.59
P Evans	PIT	Worse	28-33	0.760	28-32	0.680
A Frazier	PIT	Better	31-33	0.750	31-24	0.873
SamHoward	PIT	Much Better	2-5		2-7	3.14
K Newman	PIT	Much Worse	33-33	0.702	31-31	0.515
M Perez	PIT	Much Worse	23-25	0.630	22-22	0.359
B Reynolds	PIT	Better	26-28	0.744	26-31	0.852
RichardRodriguez	PIT	Much Better	2-7		2-9	0.47
J Cronenworth	SD	Better	31-32	0.745	31-33	0.864
Tim Hill	SD	Better	2-7	3.63	2-8	2.50
Dinelson Lamet	SD	Worse	2-8	3.56	2-7	5.00
M Machado	SD	Worse	26-34	0.888	26-32	0.716
Mark Melancon	SD	Better	2-8	3.53	2-9	0.87
Joe Musgrove	SD	Better	2-7	3.89	2-8	2.47
Will Myers	SD	Worse	24-32	0.849	24-28	0.675
Emilio Pagan	SD	Better	2-7	4.03	2-8	3.00
T Pham	SD	Worse	26-31	0.797	26-27	0.579
Craig Stammen	SD	Better	2-7	3.68	2-8	1.75
Ryan Weathers	SD	Much Better	2-5	5.14	2-7	1.37
CalebBaragar	SF	Much Better	2-6	4.79	2-8	0.64
Brandon Belt	SF	Worse	25-31	0.865	25-27	0.675
Johnny Cueto	SF	Much Better	2-5	4.77	4-7	3.34
Anthony DeSclafani	SF	Much Better	2-5	4.69	4-7	2.03
A Dickerson	SF	Worse	28-34	0.864	28-32	0.657
Kevin Gausman	SF	Much Better	2-7	3.68	2-9	1.66
Reyes Moronta	SF	Worse	2-7	3.96	4-7	5.00
B Posey	SF	Much Better	33-34	0.755	33-37	1.067
Tyler Rogers	SF	Much Better	2-7	3.90	2-9	0.70
AaronSanchez	SF	Better	4-7		2-7	3.18
Alex Wood	SF	Much Better	4-7	4.42	2-8	1.93
M Carpenter	STL	Worse	21-24	0.758	21-22	0.520
Giovanny Gallegos	STL	Much Better	2-4	5.52	4-7	2.13
John Gant	STL	Much Better	4-7	4.10	2-8	2.04
Jordan Hicks	STL	Worse	2-7	3.86	4-7	5.00
Kwang HyunKim	STL	Better	4-7	4.45	2-7	2.73
A Knizner	STL	Worse	28-32	0.724	28-28	0.531
Andrew Miller	STL	Worse	2-8	3.62	2-7	5.00
Y Molina	STL	Much Better	31-33	0.685	31-35	0.854
Alex Reyes	STL	Much Better	4-7	4.26	2-8	0.39
J Bell	WSH	Worse	24-31	0.835	24-27	0.639
Sam Clay	WSH	Much Better	2-6	4.93	2-7	2.70
Patrick Corbin	WSH	Much Worse	2-8	3.60	4-7	6.10
Brad Hand	WSH	Worse	2-9	2.79	2-8	4.11
Will Harris	WSH	Worse	2-8	3.51	2-7	5.00
Daniel Hudson	WSH	Much Better	2-5	4.82	2-7	1.20
Austin Voth	WSH	Much Better	2-5	5.32	2-7	2.29
R Zimmerman	WSH	Better	26-32	0.736	26-33	0.858