Value Add Most Valuable Returning Players, and Most Damaging Injuries

A comparison of the preseason Projected Value Add vs. the actual Value Add of players who have only played a few games due to transfer rules or injuries reveals 61 players who should ultimately add at least 0.5 points to their team from what the current team ratings would include. On the downside, eight player injuries are reflected on the bottom names of this list because the team will now lose their Value Add. Here are the team total's in alphabetical order,

For example, Josh Okogie's Value Add to date is just 1.21 because he has only played two games due to a suspension, but if he comes back his projection for the year is actually 7.65. A bigger deal may be UNC's Cameron Johnson, who only played one game since coming back from back surgery but projects to be worth 5.64 points per game moving forward.

The list shows the player, team, the Adj figure indicates how many more points the player should be worth to the team if playing every day moving forward. Next the "Gms" and "VA5D" indicate how many games the player has played and his Value Add based on that (e.g. if a player played one of his team's 10 games and had a 0.50 Value Add, then he would actually be on pace for a 5.00 Value Add if he had played all 10 games). The next figure is the preseason Projection in the big Value Add database. After the conference, the notes from that database are included, such as if the players was a preseason 1st, 2nd or 3rd team all-conference pick.

As of the December 23 stats, each team's per game points above average is adjusted by the figures below, and then the NCAA tournament seed is projected based on that figure in this blog.

Player	Team	Adj	Gms	VA5D	Projected	Conf	Notes
Josh Okogie	Georgia Tech	6.44	2	1.21	7.65	ACC	All-Conf3, 6-gm susp over
Dorian Pickens	Stanford	5.77	3	0.16	5.93	P12
Cameron Johnson	North Carolina	5.64	1	0.79	6.43	ACC	2017/Pittsburgh, back from surgery
BJ Taylor	UCF	5.57	1	0.43	6.00	Amer	All-Conf2, will return inj
Jaylen Adams	St. Bonaventure	5.47	5	3.08	8.55	A10	ConfPOY
Jalan West	Northwestern St.	5.39	5	2.74	8.13	Slnd	PG ,ConfPOY, given 6th yr
Wyatt Walker	Samford	5.30	2	0.16	5.46	SC	All-Conf2
Jason Carter	Ohio	5.17	3	0.43	5.60	MAC	All-Conf1, early season inj
Jarrell Brantley	College of Charleston	4.68	1	0.24	4.92	CAA	All-Conf1, early season inj
Jordon Varnado	Troy	4.63	5	1.17	5.80	SB	All-Conf1
Rawle Alkins	Arizona	4.61	4	2.46	7.07	P12	All-Conf1, returning off season inj
Isaiah Blackmon	St. Francis PA	3.61	3	0.29	3.90	NEC	All-Conf2, will return inj
Traylin Farris	Portland St.	3.43	5	0.76	4.19	Bsky
Ben Richardson	Loyola Chicago	3.40	2	0.20	3.60	MVC
Marcus LoVett	St. John's	3.34	6	1.83	5.17	BE
Ryan Taylor	Evansville	3.07	6	1.69	4.76	MVC	All-Conf2
David Skara	Clemson	2.54	2	0.30	2.84	ACC	2016/Valparaiso
Rodney Simeon	Alabama St.	2.39	3	0.11	2.50	SWAC	All-Conf2
Adam McDermott	Northern Iowa	2.37	3	0.50	2.87	MVC	2016/North Dakota
Arkadiy Mkrtychyan	Idaho	2.31	5	0.65	2.96	BSKy
Ikenna Smart	Buffalo	2.22	3	0.12	2.34	MAC
Christ Koumadje	Florida St.	2.18	3	0.32	2.50	ACC
Kyle Clark	Saint Mary's	2.17	3	0.32	2.49	WCC
Andrew Kostecka	Loyola MD	2.16	5	1.13	3.29	Pat
Connor McCaffery	Iowa	2.09	3	0.17	2.26	B10	SF
Guillien Smith	Dartmouth	2.07	2	0.12	2.19	Ivy
Petr Herman	Loyola Marymount	1.87	1	0.10	1.97	WCC
Dajour Dickens	Providence	1.84	3	0.08	1.92	BE	C
Michael Gilmore	Florida Gulf Coast	1.73	3	0.11	1.84	Asun	2016/VCU
Chase Johnson	Florida	1.64	4	1.01	2.65	SEC	PF
Chris Wray	Mount St. Mary's	1.58	3	1.83	3.41	NEC
Jordan Walker	Seton Hall	1.48	2	0.12	1.60	BE
Pape Diatta	Georgia	1.42	3	0.04	1.46	SEC
Brandon Sampson	LSU	1.40	4	2.44	3.84	SEC
Lawson Schaffer	Alabama	1.40	3	0.21	1.61	SEC
Avi Toomer	Bucknell	1.37	3	0.16	1.53	Pat
Destin Barnes	Boston University	1.33	2	0.07	1.40	Pat
Jordan Lyons	Southern Utah	1.28	3	0.02	1.30	SEC
Hunter Rhodes	Northern Iowa	1.28	4	0.86	2.14	MVC
Jake Killingsworth	Columbia	1.27	2	0.10	1.37	Ivy
Luke McDonnell	Northern Iowa	1.26	4	0.41	1.67	MVC
Lance Thomas	Louisville	1.24	5	0.99	2.23	ACC	PF
Christian Keeling	Charleston Southern	1.23	6	3.47	4.70	BSth	All-Conf2
Harry Froling	Marquette	1.21	2	0.10	1.31	BE	2017/SMU
Jesse Bunting	Fordham	1.17	5	0.67	1.84	A10
James Banks	Texas	1.12	6	0.75	1.87	B12
Terry Maston	Baylor	1.10	6	2.83	3.93	B12
Luke Rosinski	New Hampshire	1.10	3	0.15	1.25	AE
Jorden Kite	Incarnate Word	1.03	4	0.44	1.47	Slnd
Victor Uyaelunmo	USC	0.94	5	0.63	1.57	B12	C
Solomon Hainna	Evansville	0.82	3	0.31	1.13	MVC
Henrik Jadersten	Santa Clara	0.78	5	0.56	1.34	WCC
Jorge Rosa	New Orleans	0.75	2	0.76	1.51	Slnd
Ryan McMahon	Louisville	0.74	4	1.10	1.84	SEC
Matt Staubi	Loyola MD	0.70	4	0.45	1.15	Pat
Zach Nelson	Utah Valley	0.66	5	0.82	1.48	WAC
Jamar Martin	Charleston Southern	0.65	4	0.41	1.06	BSth
Adarius Avery	Loyola Chicago	0.65	4	0.49	1.14	MVC	SF Connors State (JUCO 2017)
Malik William	Clemson	0.61	5	0.86	1.47	ACC	PF
Jeremy Combs	LSU	0.52	6	0.81	1.33	CUSA	C
Shawn Johnson	Incarnate Word	0.51	5	2.99	3.50	Slnd
Davon Dillard	Oklahoma St.	-0.61	4	0.24	gone	B12	Gone
Lamarr Kimble	Saint Joseph's	-0.67	1	0.07	gone	a10	All-Conf2, 4.3 projection, but gone
Rapolas Ivanauskas	Northwestern	-0.88	3	0.26	gone	B10
Ryan Singer	San Jose St.	-1.30	2	0.26	gone	MWC
Darius Hicks	North Carolina St.	-1.34	4	0.54	gone	ACC
Kobe King	Wisconsin	-1.57	10	1.57	gone	B10
Deontae Hawkins	Boston College	-2.35	8	1.88	gone	ACC
Jalen Harris	Louisiana Tech	-2.86	9	2.57	gone	CUSA