Saturday, December 23, 2017

Value Add Most Valuable Returning Players, and Most Damaging Injuries

A comparison of the preseason Projected Value Add vs. the actual Value Add of players who have only played a few games due to transfer rules or injuries reveals 61 players who should ultimately add at least 0.5 points to their team from what the current team ratings would include. On the downside, eight player injuries are reflected on the bottom names of this list because the team will now lose their Value Add. Here are the team total's in alphabetical order,

For example, Josh Okogie's Value Add to date is just 1.21 because he has only played two games due to a suspension, but if he comes back his projection for the year is actually 7.65. A bigger deal may be UNC's Cameron Johnson, who only played one game since coming back from back surgery but projects to be worth 5.64 points per game moving forward.

The list shows the player, team, the Adj figure indicates how many more points the player should be worth to the team if playing every day moving forward. Next the "Gms" and "VA5D" indicate how many games the player has played and his Value Add based on that (e.g. if a player played one of his team's 10 games and had a 0.50 Value Add, then he would actually be on pace for a 5.00 Value Add if he had played all 10 games). The next figure is the preseason Projection in the big Value Add database. After the conference, the notes from that database are included, such as if the players was a preseason 1st, 2nd or 3rd team all-conference pick.

As of the December 23 stats, each team's per game points above average is adjusted by the figures below, and then the NCAA tournament seed is projected based on that figure in this blog.

Josh OkogieGeorgia Tech6.4421.217.65ACCAll-Conf3, 6-gm susp over
Dorian PickensStanford5.7730.165.93P12
Cameron JohnsonNorth Carolina5.6410.796.43ACC2017/Pittsburgh, back from surgery
BJ TaylorUCF5.5710.436.00AmerAll-Conf2, will return inj
Jaylen AdamsSt. Bonaventure5.4753.088.55A10ConfPOY
Jalan WestNorthwestern St.5.3952.748.13SlndPG ,ConfPOY, given 6th yr
Wyatt WalkerSamford5.3020.165.46SCAll-Conf2
Jason CarterOhio5.1730.435.60MACAll-Conf1, early season inj
Jarrell BrantleyCollege of Charleston4.6810.244.92CAAAll-Conf1, early season inj
Jordon VarnadoTroy4.6351.175.80SBAll-Conf1
Rawle AlkinsArizona4.6142.467.07P12All-Conf1, returning off season inj
Isaiah BlackmonSt. Francis PA3.6130.293.90NECAll-Conf2, will return inj
Traylin FarrisPortland St.3.4350.764.19Bsky
Ben RichardsonLoyola Chicago3.4020.203.60MVC
Marcus LoVettSt. John's3.3461.835.17BE
Ryan TaylorEvansville3.0761.694.76MVCAll-Conf2
David SkaraClemson2.5420.302.84ACC2016/Valparaiso
Rodney SimeonAlabama St.2.3930.112.50SWACAll-Conf2
Adam McDermottNorthern Iowa2.3730.502.87MVC2016/North Dakota
Arkadiy MkrtychyanIdaho2.3150.652.96BSKy
Ikenna SmartBuffalo2.2230.122.34MAC
Christ KoumadjeFlorida St.2.1830.322.50ACC
Kyle ClarkSaint Mary's2.1730.322.49WCC
Andrew KosteckaLoyola MD2.1651.133.29Pat
Connor McCafferyIowa2.0930.172.26B10SF
Guillien SmithDartmouth2.0720.122.19Ivy
Petr HermanLoyola Marymount1.8710.101.97WCC
Dajour DickensProvidence1.8430.081.92BEC
Michael GilmoreFlorida Gulf Coast1.7330.111.84Asun2016/VCU
Chase JohnsonFlorida1.6441.012.65SECPF
Chris WrayMount St. Mary's1.5831.833.41NEC
Jordan WalkerSeton Hall1.4820.121.60BE
Pape DiattaGeorgia1.4230.041.46SEC
Brandon SampsonLSU1.4042.443.84SEC
Lawson SchafferAlabama1.4030.211.61SEC
Avi ToomerBucknell1.3730.161.53Pat
Destin BarnesBoston University1.3320.071.40Pat
Jordan LyonsSouthern Utah1.2830.021.30SEC
Hunter RhodesNorthern Iowa1.2840.862.14MVC
Jake KillingsworthColumbia1.2720.101.37Ivy
Luke McDonnellNorthern Iowa1.2640.411.67MVC
Lance ThomasLouisville1.2450.992.23ACCPF
Christian KeelingCharleston Southern1.2363.474.70BSthAll-Conf2
Harry FrolingMarquette1.2120.101.31BE2017/SMU
Jesse BuntingFordham1.1750.671.84A10
James BanksTexas1.1260.751.87B12
Terry MastonBaylor1.1062.833.93B12
Luke RosinskiNew Hampshire1.1030.151.25AE
Jorden KiteIncarnate Word1.0340.441.47Slnd
Victor UyaelunmoUSC0.9450.631.57B12C
Solomon HainnaEvansville0.8230.311.13MVC
Henrik JaderstenSanta Clara0.7850.561.34WCC
Jorge RosaNew Orleans0.7520.761.51Slnd
Ryan McMahonLouisville0.7441.101.84SEC
Matt StaubiLoyola MD0.7040.451.15Pat
Zach NelsonUtah Valley0.6650.821.48WAC
Jamar MartinCharleston Southern0.6540.411.06BSth
Adarius AveryLoyola Chicago0.6540.491.14MVCSF Connors State (JUCO 2017)
Malik WilliamClemson0.6150.861.47ACCPF
Jeremy CombsLSU0.5260.811.33CUSAC
Shawn JohnsonIncarnate Word0.5152.993.50Slnd
Davon DillardOklahoma St.-0.6140.24goneB12Gone
Lamarr KimbleSaint Joseph's-0.6710.07gonea10All-Conf2, 4.3 projection, but gone
Rapolas IvanauskasNorthwestern-0.8830.26goneB10
Ryan SingerSan Jose St.-1.3020.26goneMWC
Darius HicksNorth Carolina St.-1.3440.54goneACC
Kobe KingWisconsin-1.57101.57goneB10
Deontae HawkinsBoston College-2.3581.88goneACC
Jalen HarrisLouisiana Tech-2.8692.57goneCUSA

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