Friday, September 22, 2017

Summit: Analytics See Denver Hoops Challenge to Dakota Schools That Dominate Football

The four Summit League schools that play football play it well as FCS Powerhouses, led by a North Dakota State team that consistently beats FBS schools. The basketball programs are not as elite, but their conference tournament is one of the best attended in the country, and this year they get to watch Fort Wayne's John Konchar, a potential Top 50 player, and Value Add 3rd Team All-American Mike Daum of South Dakota State.

Value Add a great duo from Denver gives them a chance to challenge the Dakota schools for the title, though that would entail quite a jump from a 16-14 last season. South Dakota went 22-12 last season and Fort Wayne 20-13 before South Dakota State won the conference tournament despite failing to have a winning regular season.

Here is where Value Add ranks each Summit League team for the season, and the Massey Rankings rank the football teams, showing the four schools that play football rank ahead of many FBS schools. Updates will be provided here.

Team - 2017 SeedHoopsFootball
South Dakota11688
South Dakota St. 1613482
Fort Wayne153
Nebraska Omaha230
North Dakota St.25344
Oral Roberts268
Western Illinois28699

Here are the top 15 projected players in the conference in order.

Top 15 Summit PlayersValue AddSchoolHt
Mike Daum 249.36South Dakota St.`6-09
John Konchar 557.68IUPU Fort Wayne`6-05
Matt Mooney 135.46South Dakota`6-03
Joe Rosga 25.23Denver`6-03
Daniel Amigo 445.00Denver`6-10
Paul Miller 24.67North Dakota St.`6-06
Mitch Hahn 444.65Nebraska Omaha`6-08
Carlton Hurst 24.50South Dakota`6-03
Albert Owens 444.10Oral Roberts`6-09
Emmanuel Nzekwesi 233.90Oral Roberts`6-08
AJ Jacobson 213.76North Dakota St.`6-06
Bryson Scott 13.70IUPU Fort Wayne`6-01
Zach Jackson 213.69Nebraska Omaha`6-05
Kason Harrell 323.66IUPU Fort Wayne`6-02
Thomas Neff 153.48Denver`6-05

Ken Pomeroy ranked the Summit League 16th of 32 Division 1 basketball conferences, which will all be previewed here with notes on which schools are now "basketball" or "football" schools based on which program is stronger this season. Football revenue is much higher, but programs are much more expensive between equipment and the requirement of matching enough women's scholarships in other sports. Therefore some programs forgo FBS football programs to focus on low cost basketball programs as their biggest revenue sport.

Sports IllustratedFox Sports and ESPN have lauded Value Add Basketball for estimating the number of points each college basketball players is worth to his team above a replacement player - similar to baseball WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Massey Ratings is used for the football rankings above.

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