UConn is a 3-point favorite against Georgetown tonight at www.kenpom.com, due to a calculation we estimate below this table. However, www.valueaddbasketball.com calculates that UConn is 4 points better when Bouknight plays and 4 points worse when he does not play (he has played 8 times and was injured for 8 of UConn's first 16 games). Since now Georgetown player makes the table, that is the only adjustment we would make to the expected score - Bouknight is expected to play tonight and therefore we adjust UConn to a 7-point favorite instead of a three point favorite.
Obviously in a one game sample they might win by three, or by more than seven, or lose, but this gives us a player adjustment for any player who is worth at least 4.0 points per game and has missed at least three games this season. If any other player not on this list misses a game, then simply go to www.valueaddbasketball.com and subtract his Value Add from his team's expected score to get an updated expected margin of victory, but for these players you improve their team projection by the "Playing" column or reduce their team projection by the "Not Playing" column.
|Top 2% Players||Team||Playing||Not playing||Per Game||Rank||Played||Value Add||Rank|
|James Bouknight #2||Connecticut||4||-4||7.68||46||8 of 16||3.84||448|
|Tyrece Radford #23||Virginia Tech||2||-6||7.61||50||14 of 18||5.85||136|
|Sharife Cooper #2||Auburn||3||-4||7.35||55||12 of 23||3.87||443|
|Kevin McCullar #15||Texas Tech||3||-4||6.80||75||12 of 21||3.78||459|
|Iverson Molinar #1||Mississippi St.||1||-6||6.76||83||20 of 23||5.63||159|
|Michael Nuga #1||Kent St.||2||-5||6.75||84||12 of 18||4.5||320|
|Top 5% Players||Team||Playing||Not playing||Per Game||Rank||Games||Per Season||Rank|
|Matt Mitchell #11||San Diego St.||1||-6||6.61||92||17 of 20||5.51||170|
|Ian DuBose #11||Wake Forest||4||-2||6.53||100||6 of 16||2.42||909|
|Nijel Pack #24||Kansas St.||1||-5||6.48||105||19 of 23||5.4||179|
|Sasha Stefanovic #55||Purdue||1||-5||6.47||107||20 of 23||5.39||181|
|AJ Green #4||Northern Iowa||5||-1||6.23||118||3 of 20||0.93||1777|
|Obadiah Noel #11||UMass Lowell||1||-5||6.14||124||15 of 19||4.72||273|
|Jordan Bruner #2||Alabama||2||-4||5.92||142||14 of 23||3.7||479|
|JT Shumate #32||Toledo||2||-4||5.84||152||17 of 24||4.17||377|
|Devon Daniels #24||N.C. State||2||-4||5.60||174||12 of 19||3.5||529|
|Jason Preston #0||Ohio||1||-4||5.58||176||12 of 16||4.29||348|
|Shanquan Hemphill #4||Drake||1||-5||5.53||183||18 of 21||4.61||291|
|DeAndre Williams #12||Memphis||2||-3||5.50||188||11 of 18||3.44||548|
|KJ Walton #1||Ball St.||1||-5||5.48||190||15 of 18||4.57||306|
|Matt Bradley #20||California||2||-4||5.45||193||17 of 24||3.89||436|
|Keyontae Johnson #11||Florida||4||-1||5.38||203||4 of 17||1.25||1547|
|Ricky Lindo #4||George Washington||4||-1||5.38||204||3 of 13||1.25||1542|
|N'Faly Dante #1||Oregon||4||-2||5.37||206||6 of 18||1.79||1233|
|Top 10% Players||Team||Playing||Not playing||Per Game||Rank||Games||Per Season||Rank|
|Chad Baker #44||Duquesne||1||-4||5.27||217||11 of 14||4.05||399|
|Anthony Polite #2||Florida St.||1||-4||5.25||218||12 of 16||4.04||403|
|Marcus Shaver #0||Boise St.||1||-4||5.11||234||18 of 21||4.26||357|
|Keion Brooks #12||Kentucky||2||-3||4.97||261||12 of 21||2.76||759|
|DJ Funderburk #0||N.C. State||1||-4||4.90||269||15 of 19||3.77||466|
|Chris Smith #5||UCLA||3||-2||4.84||282||8 of 26||1.86||1200|
|Jalen Johnson #1||Duke||1||-3||4.82||285||13 of 18||3.44||549|
|Christian Guess #23||Samford||2||-3||4.73||295||9 of 16||2.63||820|
|Cam Mack #32||Prairie View A&M||1||-3||4.68||306||8 of 11||3.34||577|
|John Stansbury #5||Delaware St.||3||-1||4.64||314||3 of 12||1.16||1607|
|Mikael Jantunen #20||Utah||1||-4||4.63||317||15 of 19||3.56||514|
|Daejon Davis #1||Stanford||3||-2||4.62||318||10 of 23||2.01||1106|
|Justin Smith #0||Arkansas||1||-4||4.62||320||18 of 22||3.85||447|
|Scottie Lewis #23||Florida||1||-4||4.62||321||13 of 17||3.55||516|
|Jabari Walker #12||Colorado||1||-3||4.54||343||18 of 24||3.49||533|
|Johnny Juzang #3||UCLA||1||-4||4.48||352||17 of 21||3.73||475|
|Dallas Walton #13||Colorado||1||-3||4.46||354||18 of 24||3.43||553|
|Bo Hodges #1||Butler||3||-1||4.45||355||6 of 19||1.39||1459|
|John Meeks #12||Bucknell||2||-2||4.44||357||2 of 4||2.22||1001|
|Brevin Galloway #55||Charleston||3||-1||4.40||364||4 of 16||1.1||1656|
|Oscar Tshiebwe #34||West Virginia||2||-2||4.39||365||10 of 21||2.09||1072|
|Eric Williams #50||Oregon||1||-3||4.36||368||14 of 18||3.35||575|
|Joe Quintana #2||Loyola Marymount||1||-4||4.34||372||15 of 18||3.62||500|
|Jalen Gibbs #2||Mount St. Mary's||3||-1||4.32||381||6 of 18||1.44||1417|
|Geo Baker #0||Rutgers||1||-4||4.21||400||17 of 20||3.51||523|
|Elijah Childs #10||Bradley||1||-4||4.20||409||20 of 23||3.5||528|
|Charlie Moore #11||DePaul||1||-3||4.20||410||11 of 14||3.23||608|
|Jemarl Baker #3||Arizona||2||-2||4.20||411||12 of 23||2.21||1009|
|Other Players 4.0+||Team||Playing||Not||Per Game||Rank||Games||Per Season||Rank|
|Aljaz Kunc #4||Washington St.||1||-3||4.18||415||20 of 24||3.48||536|
|Jordan Cintron #20||Niagara||1||-3||4.18||416||15 of 18||3.48||538|
|Arkel Lamar #14||UMKC||3||-1||4.17||419||5 of 15||1.39||1458|
|Isaac Bonton #10||Washington St.||1||-3||4.08||436||19 of 24||3.14||628|
|CJ Fleming #25||Bellarmine||1||-3||4.04||445||13 of 16||3.37||572|
Long Mathematical Explanation
For any mathematicians who want to understand the math, here is a basic rundown.
Value Add Basketball calculates each player's value above a replacement player to his team during the season. As an example, James Bouknight's Value Add tells us he has been worth almost 4 points a game - 3.84 - to UConn in their first 16 games.
Ken Pomeroy's rankings tell us how much better or worse a team is than average per 100 trips down the court. UConn's +17.43 means they would be an average team by just more than 17 points per 100 possessions, but since there are close to 70 possessions in an average game you can multiply the KenPom ranking by 0.7 and +17.43 x .7 = +12.20. UConn is 12.20 points per game better than the average team in a given game.
UConn's next opponent, Georgetown, has an +8.90 rating which is multiplied by .7 tells us Georgetown is 6.23 points better than the average team.
UConn's 12.20 minus Georgetown's 6.23 indicates UConn is almost exactly 6 points better than Georgetown, but since Georgetown will be the home team and Pomeroy calculates Georgetown's home court advantage is 3.1, UConn is a 3 point favorite in the game.
His actual formula's for determining the predicted margin of victory in each game likely have some tweaks, and if two teams are playing at a fast pace or slow pace then the margin would increase or shrink due to more or less than 70 possessions, but that is the basic idea when you reverse engineer.
The only variable this does not capture is if a key player is missing from one of the teams, or if a team's rating was held down because a player was missing for some games, but they are now actually better than their Pomeroy rating because he is back.
Thus the example of Bouknight, who conveniently played in exactly as many games as he missed during UConn's first 16 games.
We can figure out how many points Bouknight was actually worth in the games he played through the following formula:
Value Add listed divided by Games Played by Player multiplied by Games Played by Team equals Actual Per Game Value Add when able to play.
Bouknight's rating at www.valueaddbasketball.com is 3.84, so we divide that by the eight games he played to date to get 0.48, then multiply that figure by the 16 games UConn has played to get 7.68.
This tells us that Bouknight has been worth and additional 7.68 points to UConn in the eight games he played (so turns a 4-point loss into a 4-point win). This means he is actually the 46th best player out of 4,183, so just misses the top one percent of all players. The reason the Value listed in the database is 3.84 is that in the eight UConn games when he was out injured, he was worth 0.00 points, so over the course of the season he has improved UConn 3.84 points per game UConn plays. He calculates as the 448th best player in the country, but if he had missed not games he was on pace to be the 46th best player in the country.
The next best player held back by injury is Tyrece Radford of Virginia Tech, whose 5.85 Value Add Rating would actually be 7.61 for the games in which he played.
We will go a little deeper into the math below this table, but
Virginia Tech is projected to beat Georgia Tech by 2, so if Radford missed the game we subtract 6 points (5.85) and Virginia Tech is a 4 point underdog.
However, you also adjust up for a team that is at full strength, but the math is a little trickier. Below are all they key players who have missed at least three games, with their actual per game Value Add listed first, and then the listed Value Add next. You need to subtract the second figure from the first to see how much better than the kenpom rating the team is with the player now on the court.
For Bouknight, 7.68 minus 3.84 = 3.84, so UConn is actually four points better than their kenpom rating with him on the court and instead of a 3 point favorite against Georgetown they become a 7 point favorite at full strength.
For Radford, 7.61 minus 5.85 = 1.76, so Virginia Tech is actually 2 points better than their kenpom rating with Radford back. Instead of a 2-point favorite Virginia Tech is a 4-point favorite against Georgia Tech.
The following are the only players whose injuries have made a substantial difference to factor in their adjusted kenpom rating. In looking at a match-up you need to see if the opponent likewise has a key player who has missed games. Neither of their opponents, Georgetown or Georgia Tech, has a player on the list below and therefore we can make the adjustment based on Bouknight and Radford being on the court.
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