Thursday, November 28, 2019

West Region All-Time March Madness: 17 Lead Changes in Kawhi vs. Michigan Wraps Up West 1st Round

Note that in the bracket we record overtime games as the regulation score plus 1 for the eventual winner. Arizona's 67-66 win above was a 66-66 tie in regulation that ended with a 90-88 win in two overtimes over Iowa. Oregon and San Diego State were upset winners, favorites won the other six games (6-2).

If you are counting conferences the Pac-12 (or Pac-10 or Pac-8) has 5 teams, 3 teams were independent, 2 from the Big East, and then one each from the Missouri Valley, Big West, West Coast, Moutain West, Big 8 and finally the undefeated San Francisco team with Bill Russell from the California Basketball Association.

Here is the master list of all 96 teams and predictions. Click on the EastWest, Midwest and South bracket to follow the results in each, or click on the Value Add Basketball Game instructions to get the free game and play for yourself. Click here for the google sheet with player cards for all 96 teams. Click here for box scores to all tournament games.

PDFs of player cards appear below (we cleaned up the typos in years 12/5/2019):

Alabama 1977 to Duke 2010 updated 12/15/2019

Florida 2006 to Iowa 2001 updated 12/15/2019

Kansas 1957 to LSU 2006 updated 12/15/2019 AND Loyola 1963 Team Corrected

Marquette 1977 to Notre Dame 1970 updated 12/16/2019

Ohio State 1960 to Purdue 2018 updated 12/16/2019

San Diego State 2011 to Texas Southern (UTEP) 1966 updated 12/16/2019

UCLA 1972 to Wyoming 1943 updated 12/15/2019 (note includes UNC 1982, while "North Carolina" 2005 is in Marquette to Notre Dame link above)

Table key: dunks = number of uncontested scores out of 36 rolls from 11-36, Stop Dunks = number added (bad) or subtracted (good) from opponents dunk range, Pred Off = average score resulting from team playing cards in 66 possession Value Add Basketball Games against all top 100 teams in history, Pred Def = average points cards would allow in the those games, Net = difference between those two which is used as the teams rating for seeding or knowing who is favored in a given game by how many points (difference between two net scores). E.g. Arizona's 14.2 indicates it would average defeating LSU (5.5) by 8.7 points if they played hundreds of times.  Click here for all box scores from tournament games.

SeedSouth RegionYearConferenceDunksStop DunksPred OffPred DefNet
18Indiana St.1979MVC6174.764.310.4
23Iowa2001Big Ten9-169.961.38.6
3Louisville2013Big East11-273.756.317.4
14Michigan2013Big Ten8-
12Missouri1982Big 82-572.559.313.2
19San Diego St.2011MWC3-468.058.19.9
7San Francisco1956CBA3-870.355.015.3
8Syracuse2003Big East11076.961.915.0
2UNLV1991Big West7079.661.018.6
22Utah1998WAC (Mountain)0-568.159.48.7
6UTEP (Texas Western)1966Ind5-672.457.115.3

#9 Arizona (1997) 85, #24 LSU (1970) 77

9-seed Arizona 1997 avoided an upset by Pistol Pete Maravich and 24-seed LSU 1970 by a score of 85-77. Jason Terry and Mike Bibby harrassed LSU into 15 turnovers (to only 8 by Arizona) and Bibby's 32 points en route to the 85 points in the 66 possession game against the worst defense in the tournament.

Maravich countered with 28 points including one stretch of four trips down the court in which he was fouled on a 3-point shot and hit all 3 free throws, hit a 2-pointer and then his a 3-pointer to cut the Arizona lead to 49-48. The win advances Arizona to play Carmelo Anthony's 2003 Syracuse team, the 8-seed in the West Region with the winner potentially playing the top seed in the whole tournament - Bill Walton's 1972 UCLA team.

West Region
#24 LSU 1970PtsRebStlsBlksFoulsPossessions Played of the 44 at which position
Pete Maravich28520240 to 1 (1)
Jeff Tribbett9411444-41, 34-1 (2)
Danny Hester14611238 to 1 (3)
Bill Newton10610438 to 1 (4)
Al Sanders6600438 to 1 (5)
Tommy Hess2100144-41 (1), 40-38 (2)
Rich Hickman4100144-39 (3), 27 (2)
Bob Lang2100144-39 (4),36 (2)
John Carr2000144-39 (5), 35 (2)
LSU Totals77305220Turnovers = 15
#9 Arizona 1997PtsRebStlsBlksFoulsPossessions Played of the 44 at which position
Jason Terry17220339-1 (1)
Mike Bibby32230244-40, 38-1 (2)
Miles Simon10420544-39, 35-12 (3)
Michael Dickerson17500244-36, 32-1 (4)
Bennett Davison3611244-33, 24-1 (5)
A.J. Bramlett6501244-40 (1), 39 (2), 38-36, 11-1 (3), 35-33 (4), 32-25 (5)
Arizona Totals85248216Tunorvers = 8

#15 UCLA (2005) 76, #18 Indiana St. (1979) 69

Larry Bird dominated a stretch of 13 possessions after Ryan Hollis rejected him twice to give UCLA a 46-30 lead with 13:57 (23 possessions) to play. Bird's subsequent 30-17 Bird included a three-pointer to make it 54-45. As the best rebounder on the court he grabbed an offensive rebound on a missed free throw to keep a possession alive and make it 54-47. Finally on four straight possessions Bird made a 2-pointer to make it 59-52, 3-pointer to make it 61-55, another 2-pointer to make it 61-57, and finally kept a possession alive with two offensive rebounds and eventually hit a 3-pointer to make it 61-60.

On the next trip with 6:05 (10 possessions) to play he finally missed with a potential game-tying 3-pointer, and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute dunked at the other end to make it 65-60, and the 1-point favorite UCLA held on a 76-69 win to advance an play #2 seed UNLV 1991.

#18 Indiana St. 1979PtsRebStlsBlksFoulsPossessions Played
Carl Nicks4230137 to 1
Bob Heaton6110237 to 1
Larry Bird30900337 to 1
Leroy Staley6511437 to 1
Alex Gilbert6612137 to 1
Steve Reed5110144 to 38
Rich Nemcek2100144 to 38
Scott Turner2100244 to 38
Brad Miley5200144 to 38
Tom Crowder3100144 to 38
69297317Turnovers: 15
#15 UCLA 2006PtsRebStlsBlksFoulsPossessions Played
Jordan Farmar14310136 to 1
Darren Collison9220221 to 1
Cedric Bozeman6600325 to 1
Arron Afflalo13310344 to 1
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute14711238 to 1
Michael Roll6110144 to 33 (2)
Ryan Hollins7411244 to 26 (3)
Alfred Aboya2100244 to 37 (1)
Lorenzo Mata3100232 to 26 (2)
Ryan Wright2200144 to 39 (5)
76307219Turnovers: 15

#10 Arizona (2015) 90, Iowa (2001) 88, 2 OT

In perhaps the most amazing sports board game I've ever played in any sport, #10 West seed Arizona (2015) almost become the biggest upset victim to date. The match-up was tougher than I meant for them to face opening round. When I did the 21st century teams I only had tempo free stats back to 2002 so I made the Iowa team from that year to get the great center Reggie Evans and guard Luke Decker.

However, after developing formulas to add all the 20th century teams and set up this tournament - I realized I could actually now produce the actual surprise Big Ten tournament 2001 champs from Iowa - a team driven by a third great player in Dean Oliver who made Decker and Evans better in 2001 even then they were in 2002 without him.

In short, I gave Arizona a 23 v 10 seed matchup in based which they would have been favored 68-61, and they ended up against better cards for Iowa 2001 that predicted  a closer 67-62 win.

Still, Arizona featured one if the top guard duos in value add history in TJ McConnell and Stanley Johnson.

However Recker drew fouls on McConnell until he had 4 fouls with 28 possessions still to play. The rest of the game he had to play avoiding fouls, which led to easier chances for Recker who had 30 by the end of regulation with Iowa leading 66-62 with only two possessions left.

Stanley Johnson then came up with a fast break transition steals (only a 1-36 roll of 11, 13, 15 with a great steals player like him). He went down and scored and fast break transitions the last 5 possessions of a game - 66-64.

On the final possession, Glen Worley had a game-clincher, but Brandon Ashley rejected the shot. At the other end Kaleb Tarczewski missed the game thing shot, but Ashley rebounded that as well, was fouled, and hit both free throws to force overtime.

McConnell finally did foul out early in the OT and Iowa led 76-71 with 4 possessions left, but his sub Parker Jacksin-Cartwright hit a 3 to make it 78-76 and buckets the last two trips by Tarczewski left another tie at 80-80.

In the second OT it was 86-86 with two possessions left, when Evans missed a shot, got his own rebound, was fouled, but then missed bother free throws (he is only good on 1-12 onna 20-sided die as a 60% free throw shooter).

Hollis-Jefferson scored the last 2 trips and Ashley came up with another block to let Arizona escape 90-88 in 2 OT. The advance to play the first ever undefeated national champion in Bill Russell's 1956 San Francisco team.

#11 Marquette (1977) 79, #22 Utah (1998) 69

Using our new one-page scoresheet, we posted a full account of this game of former Rick Majerus teams on the Marquette-centric blog Cracked Sidewalks (click here).

#17 Oregon 64, #16 Seattle 62

Despite a double double from Elgin Baylor (17 points, 10 rebounds) the 1958 Seattle University lost a 62-53 lead in the final 3:45 as the Oregon Men's Basketball 2017 team used 2 steals and 3 three-pointers to win 64-62. The Ducks will now play the overall favorite 1972 UCLA Men's Basketball featuring Bill Walton in the 96 team all-time great tournament. Value Add Sports Sports Simulations and Replays. It was my first game using the updated score sheets that includes the rebound chart and which position gets other rebounds, and the game played in 35 minutes exactly.

#12 Missouri (1982) 71, #23 Cal (1959) 69

Missouri, which rose to No. 1 for part of the 1982 season before a disappointing tournament, dominated most of the game with the trio of guard Sundvold (17 points) and front line players Frazier (17 points, 10 rebounds) and Stipanovich (15, 10). A double point lead almost slipped away late behind Imhoff's 18, 17 outing including many offensive rebounds for Cal's poor shooting 1959 national champs. After Cal intentionally fouled and Mizzou missed both free throws, Grout hit a three-pointer with 1:15 to play to make it 69-69 for the first tie since 20-20. However, Bridges had a steal and fast break and Missouri pulled out the 71-69 win to advance and play the 1963 National Champions from Loyola-Chicago.

#13 Gonzaga (2017) 55, #20 DePaul (1945) 51

A full account of this defensive battle of giants is on this Facebook link with a video of how to start and set up a game.

#19 San Diego State (2011) 70, #14 Michigan (2013) 68

Our showdown between Kawhi Leonard's San Diego State and the Michigan team of Glen Robinson III - so of the overall No. 1 NBA pick featured an all-time game high 17 lead changes in just the 45 possessions we played out after the 20-20 start of the game. The Value Add Basketball Game features at least 44 possessions, but fast breaks off of steals in the last nine possessions add an extra possession - as it did when Tapley stole to start a fast break for San Diego State on what would have been the last possession to create a 45th possession.

We updated the game rules to point out Kawhi is the perfect forward when positing players in the game because he is so dominant as both a rebounder and steals player. He and Robinson balanced each other off at the opposing power forward (4) spots with tough defense on each other and each drew four fouls on the other but neither fouled out.

Staukas twice hit 3-pointers including giving Michigan a 42-40 lead and the tying it 50-50, and twice was fouled shooting a three-pointer including taking the 60-59 lead from the line. The Wolverines actually trailed in rebounding until McGary game in with 21 possessions to play - and he dominated with 10 rebounds in those last 21 possessions to help Michigan win the rebounding battle 36-30.

While Kawhi Leonard led San Diego State with 13 points, the balanced attack was helped by a key block by Thomas and game-high four steals by Tapley that were key in the win. Thomas' block of McGary's shots with 3:07 (5 possessions left) kept the score at 64-63, Tapley hit a three-pointer to give San Diego State a 66-64 lead and then Kawhi rejected Robinson to keep the lead.

Tapley stole the ball on what would have been the 2nd to last possession with a 68-66 lead, but missed a fast break shot which left San Diego State with one possession left and Michigan with two. Robinson scored to tie it 68-68 and leave both teams with a final possession. Tapley got to the hoop and scored to make it 70-68, and then McGary's potential game-tying shot missed and Tapley grabbed the rebound to prevent a second chance at overtime and send San Diego State to play 2013 Louisville in the 2nd round. It was only the 2nd upset of eight West Region 1st Round Games.

San Diego StatePtsRebStlsBlksFoulsPossessions Played
Leonard13401444-40, 36-1
Rabon4200144-28 (2)
Shelton2100144-42 (3)
Cheriet2101141-37 (3)
Franklin5100136-32 (3)
Carwell2100144-40 (5), 39-37 (4)
70301041513 turnovers
MichiganPtsRebStlsBlksFoulsPossessions Played
LaVert2100144-40 (3)
Morgan4200134-22 (5)
Horford2100139-35 (5)
Albrecht2200144-41 (5)
6836741518 turnovers

This concludes the summaries of the West Region 1st Round Games.

No comments:

Post a Comment