Here is the master list of all 96 teams and predictions. Click on the East, West, Midwest and South bracket to follow the results in each, or click on the Value Add Basketball Game instructions to get the free game and play for yourself. Click here for the google sheet with player cards for all 96 teams. Click here for box scores to all tournament games.
PDFs of new and improved player cards appear below:
Alabama 1977 to Duke 2010
Florida 2006 to Iowa 2002
Kansas 1957 to LSU 2006
Marquette 1977 to Notre Dame 1970
Ohio State 1960 to Purdue 2018
San Diego State 2011 to Texas Southern (UTEP) 1966
UCLA 1972 to Wyoming 1943
Table key: dunks = number of uncontested scores out of 36 rolls from 11-36, Stop Dunks = number added (bad) or subtracted (good) from opponents dunk range, Pred Off = average score resulting from team playing cards in 66 possession Value Add Basketball Games against all top 100 teams in history, Pred Def = average points cards would allow in the those games, Net = difference between those two which is used as the teams rating for seeding or knowing who is favored in a given game by how many points (difference between two net scores). E.g. Arizona's 14.2 indicates it would average defeating LSU (5.5) by 8.7 points if they played hundreds of times. Click here for all box scores from tournament games.
|Seed||South Region||Year||Conference||Dunks||Stop Dunks||Pred Off||Pred Def||Net|
|19||San Diego St.||2011||MWC||3||-4||68.0||58.1||9.9|
|6||UTEP (Texas Western)||1966||Ind||5||-6||72.4||57.1||15.3|
1997 Arizona 85, 1970 LSU 77
9-seed Arizona 1997 avoided an upset by Pistol Pete Maravich and 24-seed LSU 1970 by a score of 85-77. Jason Terry and Mike Bibby harrassed LSU into 15 turnovers (to only 8 by Arizona) and Bibby's 32 points en route to the 85 points in the 66 possession game against the worst defense in the tournament.
Maravich countered with 28 points including one stretch of four trips down the court in which he was fouled on a 3-point shot and hit all 3 free throws, hit a 2-pointer and then his a 3-pointer to cut the Arizona lead to 49-48. The win advances Arizona to play Carmelo Anthony's 2003 Syracuse team, the 8-seed in the West Region with the winner potentially playing the top seed in the whole tournament - Bill Walton's 1972 UCLA team.
|#24 LSU 1970||Pts||Reb||Stls||Blks||Fouls||Possessions Played of the 44 at which position|
|Pete Maravich||28||5||2||0||2||40 to 1 (1)|
|Jeff Tribbett||9||4||1||1||4||44-41, 34-1 (2)|
|Danny Hester||14||6||1||1||2||38 to 1 (3)|
|Bill Newton||10||6||1||0||4||38 to 1 (4)|
|Al Sanders||6||6||0||0||4||38 to 1 (5)|
|Tommy Hess||2||1||0||0||1||44-41 (1), 40-38 (2)|
|Rich Hickman||4||1||0||0||1||44-39 (3), 27 (2)|
|Bob Lang||2||1||0||0||1||44-39 (4),36 (2)|
|John Carr||2||0||0||0||1||44-39 (5), 35 (2)|
|LSU Totals||77||30||5||2||20||Turnovers = 15|
|#9 Arizona 1997||Pts||Reb||Stls||Blks||Fouls||Possessions Played of the 44 at which position|
|Jason Terry||17||2||2||0||3||39-1 (1)|
|Mike Bibby||32||2||3||0||2||44-40, 38-1 (2)|
|Miles Simon||10||4||2||0||5||44-39, 35-12 (3)|
|Michael Dickerson||17||5||0||0||2||44-36, 32-1 (4)|
|Bennett Davison||3||6||1||1||2||44-33, 24-1 (5)|
|A.J. Bramlett||6||5||0||1||2||44-40 (1), 39 (2), 38-36, 11-1 (3), 35-33 (4), 32-25 (5)|
|Arizona Totals||85||24||8||2||16||Tunorvers = 8|
UCLA 76, 1979 Indiana St. 69
Larry Bird dominated a stretch of 13 possessions after Ryan Hollis rejected him twice to give UCLA a 46-30 lead with 13:57 (23 possessions) to play. Bird's subsequent 30-17 Bird included a three-pointer to make it 54-45. As the best rebounder on the court he grabbed an offensive rebound on a missed free throw to keep a possession alive and make it 54-47. Finally on four straight possessions Bird made a 2-pointer to make it 59-52, 3-pointer to make it 61-55, another 2-pointer to make it 61-57, and finally kept a possession alive with two offensive rebounds and eventually hit a 3-pointer to make it 61-60.
On the next trip with 6:05 (10 possessions) to play he finally missed with a potential game-tying 3-pointer, and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute dunked at the other end to make it 65-60, and the 1-point favorite UCLA held on a 76-69 win to advance an play #2 seed UNLV 1991.
|#18 Indiana St. 1979||Pts||Reb||Stls||Blks||Fouls||Possessions Played|
|Carl Nicks||4||2||3||0||1||37 to 1|
|Bob Heaton||6||1||1||0||2||37 to 1|
|Larry Bird||30||9||0||0||3||37 to 1|
|Leroy Staley||6||5||1||1||4||37 to 1|
|Alex Gilbert||6||6||1||2||1||37 to 1|
|Steve Reed||5||1||1||0||1||44 to 38|
|Rich Nemcek||2||1||0||0||1||44 to 38|
|Scott Turner||2||1||0||0||2||44 to 38|
|Brad Miley||5||2||0||0||1||44 to 38|
|Tom Crowder||3||1||0||0||1||44 to 38|
|#15 UCLA 2006||Pts||Reb||Stls||Blks||Fouls||Possessions Played|
|Jordan Farmar||14||3||1||0||1||36 to 1|
|Darren Collison||9||2||2||0||2||21 to 1|
|Cedric Bozeman||6||6||0||0||3||25 to 1|
|Arron Afflalo||13||3||1||0||3||44 to 1|
|Luc Richard Mbah a Moute||14||7||1||1||2||38 to 1|
|Michael Roll||6||1||1||0||1||44 to 33 (2)|
|Ryan Hollins||7||4||1||1||2||44 to 26 (3)|
|Alfred Aboya||2||1||0||0||2||44 to 37 (1)|
|Lorenzo Mata||3||1||0||0||2||32 to 26 (2)|
|Ryan Wright||2||2||0||0||1||44 to 39 (5)|
#10 Arizona (2015) 90, Iowa (2001) 88, 2 OT
In perhaps the most amazing sports board game I've ever played in any sport, #10 West seed Arizona (2015) almost become the biggest upset victim to date. The match-up was tougher than I meant for them to face opening round. When I did the 21st century teams I only had tempo free stats back to 2002 so I made the Iowa team from that year to get the great center Reggie Evans and guard Luke Decker.
However, after developing formulas to add all the 20th century teams and set up this tournament - I realized I could actually now produce the actual surprise Big Ten tournament 2001 champs from Iowa - a team driven by a third great player in Dean Oliver who made Decker and Evans better in 2001 even then they were in 2002 without him.
In short, I gave Arizona a 23 v 10 seed matchup in based which they would have been favored 68-61, and they ended up against better cards for Iowa 2001 that predicted a closer 67-62 win.
Still, Arizona featured one if the top guard duos in value add history in TJ McConnell and Stanley Johnson.
However Recker drew fouls on McConnell until he had 4 fouls with 28 possessions still to play. The rest of the game he had to play avoiding fouls, which led to easier chances for Recker who had 30 by the end of regulation with Iowa leading 66-62 with only two possessions left.
Stanley Johnson then came up with a fast break transition steals (only a 1-36 roll of 11, 13, 15 with a great steals player like him). He went down and scored and fast break transitions the last 5 possessions of a game - 66-64.
On the final possession, Glen Worley had a game-clincher, but Brandon Ashley rejected the shot. At the other end Kaleb Tarczewski missed the game thing shot, but Ashley rebounded that as well, was fouled, and hit both free throws to force overtime.
McConnell finally did foul out early in the OT and Iowa led 76-71 with 4 possessions left, but his sub Parker Jacksin-Cartwright hit a 3 to make it 78-76 and buckets the last two trips by Tarczewski left another tie at 80-80.
In the second OT it was 86-86 with two possessions left, when Evans missed a shot, got his own rebound, was fouled, but then missed bother free throws (he is only good on 1-12 onna 20-sided die as a 60% free throw shooter).
Hollis-Jefferson scored the last 2 trips and Ashley came up with another block to let Arizona escape 90-88 in 2 OT. The advance to play the first ever undefeated national champion in Bill Russell's 1956 San Francisco team.
More games to follow.