Thursday, November 28, 2019

West Region All-Time March Madness: Bird and Pistol Pete Open Play

Here is the master list of all 96 teams and predictions. Click on the EastWest, Midwest and South bracket to follow the results in each, or click on the Value Add Basketball Game instructions to get the free game and play for yourself. Click here for the google sheet with player cards for all 96 teams. Click here for box scores to all tournament games.

PDFs of new and improved player cards appear below:

Alabama 1977 to Duke 2010

Florida 2006 to Iowa 2002

Kansas 1957 to LSU 2006

Marquette 1977 to Notre Dame 1970

Ohio State 1960 to Purdue 2018

San Diego State 2011 to Texas Southern (UTEP) 1966

UCLA 1972 to Wyoming 1943

Table key: dunks = number of uncontested scores out of 36 rolls from 11-36, Stop Dunks = number added (bad) or subtracted (good) from opponents dunk range, Pred Off = average score resulting from team playing cards in 66 possession Value Add Basketball Games against all top 100 teams in history, Pred Def = average points cards would allow in the those games, Net = difference between those two which is used as the teams rating for seeding or knowing who is favored in a given game by how many points (difference between two net scores). E.g. Arizona's 14.2 indicates it would average defeating LSU (5.5) by 8.7 points if they played hundreds of times.  Click here for all box scores from tournament games.

SeedSouth RegionYearConferenceDunksStop DunksPred OffPred DefNet
18Indiana St.1979MVC6174.764.310.4
23Iowa2001Big Ten9-169.961.38.6
3Louisville2013Big East11-273.756.317.4
14Michigan2013Big Ten8-
12Missouri1982Big 82-572.559.313.2
19San Diego St.2011MWC3-468.058.19.9
7San Francisco1956CBA3-870.355.015.3
8Syracuse2003Big East11076.961.915.0
2UNLV1991Big West7079.661.018.6
22Utah1998WAC (Mountain)0-568.159.48.7
6UTEP (Texas Western)1966Ind5-672.457.115.3

1997 Arizona 85, 1970 LSU 77

9-seed Arizona 1997 avoided an upset by Pistol Pete Maravich and 24-seed LSU 1970 by a score of 85-77. Jason Terry and Mike Bibby harrassed LSU into 15 turnovers (to only 8 by Arizona) and Bibby's 32 points en route to the 85 points in the 66 possession game against the worst defense in the tournament.

Maravich countered with 28 points including one stretch of four trips down the court in which he was fouled on a 3-point shot and hit all 3 free throws, hit a 2-pointer and then his a 3-pointer to cut the Arizona lead to 49-48. The win advances Arizona to play Carmelo Anthony's 2003 Syracuse team, the 8-seed in the West Region with the winner potentially playing the top seed in the whole tournament - Bill Walton's 1972 UCLA team.

West Region
#24 LSU 1970PtsRebStlsBlksFoulsPossessions Played of the 44 at which position
Pete Maravich28520240 to 1 (1)
Jeff Tribbett9411444-41, 34-1 (2)
Danny Hester14611238 to 1 (3)
Bill Newton10610438 to 1 (4)
Al Sanders6600438 to 1 (5)
Tommy Hess2100144-41 (1), 40-38 (2)
Rich Hickman4100144-39 (3), 27 (2)
Bob Lang2100144-39 (4),36 (2)
John Carr2000144-39 (5), 35 (2)
LSU Totals77305220Turnovers = 15
#9 Arizona 1997PtsRebStlsBlksFoulsPossessions Played of the 44 at which position
Jason Terry17220339-1 (1)
Mike Bibby32230244-40, 38-1 (2)
Miles Simon10420544-39, 35-12 (3)
Michael Dickerson17500244-36, 32-1 (4)
Bennett Davison3611244-33, 24-1 (5)
A.J. Bramlett6501244-40 (1), 39 (2), 38-36, 11-1 (3), 35-33 (4), 32-25 (5)
Arizona Totals85248216Tunorvers = 8

UCLA 76, 1979 Indiana St. 69

Larry Bird dominated a stretch of 13 possessions after Ryan Hollis rejected him twice to give UCLA a 46-30 lead with 13:57 (23 possessions) to play. Bird's subsequent 30-17 Bird included a three-pointer to make it 54-45. As the best rebounder on the court he grabbed an offensive rebound on a missed free throw to keep a possession alive and make it 54-47. Finally on four straight possessions Bird made a 2-pointer to make it 59-52, 3-pointer to make it 61-55, another 2-pointer to make it 61-57, and finally kept a possession alive with two offensive rebounds and eventually hit a 3-pointer to make it 61-60.

On the next trip with 6:05 (10 possessions) to play he finally missed with a potential game-tying 3-pointer, and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute dunked at the other end to make it 65-60, and the 1-point favorite UCLA held on a 76-69 win to advance an play #2 seed UNLV 1991.

#18 Indiana St. 1979PtsRebStlsBlksFoulsPossessions Played
Carl Nicks4230137 to 1
Bob Heaton6110237 to 1
Larry Bird30900337 to 1
Leroy Staley6511437 to 1
Alex Gilbert6612137 to 1
Steve Reed5110144 to 38
Rich Nemcek2100144 to 38
Scott Turner2100244 to 38
Brad Miley5200144 to 38
Tom Crowder3100144 to 38
69297317Turnovers: 15
#15 UCLA 2006PtsRebStlsBlksFoulsPossessions Played
Jordan Farmar14310136 to 1
Darren Collison9220221 to 1
Cedric Bozeman6600325 to 1
Arron Afflalo13310344 to 1
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute14711238 to 1
Michael Roll6110144 to 33 (2)
Ryan Hollins7411244 to 26 (3)
Alfred Aboya2100244 to 37 (1)
Lorenzo Mata3100232 to 26 (2)
Ryan Wright2200144 to 39 (5)
76307219Turnovers: 15

#10 Arizona (2015) 90, Iowa (2001) 88, 2 OT

In perhaps the most amazing sports board game I've ever played in any sport, #10 West seed Arizona (2015) almost become the biggest upset victim to date. The match-up was tougher than I meant for them to face opening round. When I did the 21st century teams I only had tempo free stats back to 2002 so I made the Iowa team from that year to get the great center Reggie Evans and guard Luke Decker.

However, after developing formulas to add all the 20th century teams and set up this tournament - I realized I could actually now produce the actual surprise Big Ten tournament 2001 champs from Iowa - a team driven by a third great player in Dean Oliver who made Decker and Evans better in 2001 even then they were in 2002 without him.

In short, I gave Arizona a 23 v 10 seed matchup in based which they would have been favored 68-61, and they ended up against better cards for Iowa 2001 that predicted  a closer 67-62 win.

Still, Arizona featured one if the top guard duos in value add history in TJ McConnell and Stanley Johnson.

However Recker drew fouls on McConnell until he had 4 fouls with 28 possessions still to play. The rest of the game he had to play avoiding fouls, which led to easier chances for Recker who had 30 by the end of regulation with Iowa leading 66-62 with only two possessions left.

Stanley Johnson then came up with a fast break transition steals (only a 1-36 roll of 11, 13, 15 with a great steals player like him). He went down and scored and fast break transitions the last 5 possessions of a game - 66-64.

On the final possession, Glen Worley had a game-clincher, but Brandon Ashley rejected the shot. At the other end Kaleb Tarczewski missed the game thing shot, but Ashley rebounded that as well, was fouled, and hit both free throws to force overtime.

McConnell finally did foul out early in the OT and Iowa led 76-71 with 4 possessions left, but his sub Parker Jacksin-Cartwright hit a 3 to make it 78-76 and buckets the last two trips by Tarczewski left another tie at 80-80.

In the second OT it was 86-86 with two possessions left, when Evans missed a shot, got his own rebound, was fouled, but then missed bother free throws (he is only good on 1-12 onna 20-sided die as a 60% free throw shooter).

Hollis-Jefferson scored the last 2 trips and Ashley came up with another block to let Arizona escape 90-88 in 2 OT. The advance to play the first ever undefeated national champion in Bill Russell's 1956 San Francisco team.

More games to follow.

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