Saturday, December 14, 2019

VABG Card Adjustments Based on NBA Careers Prior to Certain College Stats

For years in which certain stats were scarce, we awarded a Steal Range of 11-20 for players who average 1.5 steals per game in NBA years after their college career, a Steal Range of 11-16 for those who averaged 0.8 or better, and 11-15 for 0.4 or better. We awarded a Block Range of 21-30 for NBA averages of 1.8 per game or better, a Block Range of 21-26 for an NBA average of 1.0 per game or better, and a Block Range of 21-25 for 0.5 or better. We adjusted the 3-point range based on how many three-pointers were made per game and the shooting percentage – keeping in mind the NBA three-point line is much further back than the college line ever was or would have been. Here are the actual card adjustments we are in the process of making (a detailed explanation for nerds only is at the bottom):

1.       Alabama, 1977, Reggie King 11-16 steal based on 1.0 in NBA first three years combined.
2.       Auburn, 1984, (see Person at end) Charles Barkley Steals 11-20 based on 1.8 over first 3 years and 1-10 Offensive Rebounds based on leading NBA 2nd year. Chuck Person 3-pt made 1-4 based on 1.3 per game whole NBA career at 36% chance.
3.       California, 1959, Darrall Imhoff 21-26 block and 11-14 steal based on holding the Big to 5 of 16, but 1-10 FT due to averaging between 47% and 56% first 3 years in NBA.
4.       Cincinnati, 1960, Oscar Robertson 11-20 steals based on 3rd in NCAA history in assists even though Cincy only recorded stat his last 2 years, and considered greatest college player ever by many.
5.       Georgetown, 1984, Patrick Ewing 21-30 blocks based on 3 to 4 blocks per game in 3rd through 7th NBA seasons, and Steals 11-16 due to 1.3 average over first 4 seasons.
6.       Georgia, 1982, Dominique Wilkins Steals 11-20 and Blocks 21-26 based on 1.4 and 0.8 over first 5 NBA years, only 1-1 on three-pointers made based on 2 of 22 first two years in NBA. Fleming Steals 11-20 based on same 1.4 steals per game over first 5 years in NBA.
7.       Houston, 1968, (see Don Chaney at end) Elvin Hayes 1-10 rebounds, 11-16 steals and 21-30 blocks based on average 1.0 and 2.0 even late in his rebounding career when they started keeping the stat. Chaney 11-20 steals, 21-25 blocks based on averaging 1.5 steals and 0.8 blocks for several years in NBA after they started keeping stat.
8.       Indiana, 1976, Scott May 11-16 steal based on 1.1 in NBA first year. Bob Wilkerson 11-20 steal based on 1.6 first 2 yrs starting in NBA. Quinn Buckner 11-20 steal based on 2.4 per game in first NBA year playing less than half of games. Kent Benson 11-16 block, 11-15 steal based on averaging 1 per game of each over first 4 NBA seasons.
9.       Indiana St., 1979, Larry Bird 1-6 three-pointer made due to shooting 41% from NBA line the next year, Steal 11-20 and blocks 21-26 due to 1.7 and 0.8 for entire career in NBA.
10.   Kansas, 1957, Wilt Chamberlain 21-30 blocked shot, 1-12 rebound.
11.   La Salle, 1954, Tom Gola, 3-time all-american has 1-12 rebound as all time leading rebounder with 2,201 but also played all 5 positions and judged best all-around defender, so also has 11-20 on steals and 21-30 on blocked shots. Team Defensive adjustment changes from -2 to -1.
12.   Louisville, 1980, Darrell Griffith Steals 11-20 based on first 5 NBA years average of 1.4.
13.   Loyola, 1963, Jerry Harkness 1-4 three-pointers made due to outside jumper in NBA, and 11-16 steals due to good assists per minutes as NBA point guard.
14.   LSU, 1970, Pete Maravich 11-20 steals for averaging 1.5 in NBA career even though didn't record his last 3 years, and 1-6 three-pointers made for going 10 of 15 for NBA career when they finally started recording at the end of his career.
15.   Marquette, 1977, (see Bo Ellis at end) Butch Lee 11-16 steals but no blocks based on 1.0 and 0.0 over first few NBA seasons.  Bo Ellis 21-26 blocks based on 0.6 blocks in 1st NBA season playing less than one-third of games.
16.   Michigan St., 1979, (Greg Kesler at end) Magic Johnson Steals 11-20 and blocks 21-25 based on leading NBA in steals 2 of next three years and average more than 0.5 blocks over 1st three years. Only "1-1" on three-pointers made due to averaging less than one every 10 NBA games for years. Kesler steals 11-16, blocks 21-26 based on 1.3 and 1.0 over next 2 years in NBA.
17.   Missouri, 1982, (Jon Sundvold at end) Steve Stipanovich Steals 11-16, Blocks 21-26 based on 1.0, 0.9 over 5-year NBA career. Sundvold Blocks 11-11 due to 5 blocks in 500 NBA games.
18.   Navy, 1986, David Robinson Steal 11-20 and Blocks 21-30 based on 2.3 and NBA high 4.5 by 3rd NBA season and dominant numbers in career.
19.   North Carolina St., 1974, (see Tom Burleson at end) David Thompson 11-20 steals and 21-26 blocks based on 1.6 and 1.2 per game in 1st NBA season.  Burleson 11-16 steal and 21-30 blocks based on NBA 0.8 and 1.9 first season.
20.   Notre Dame, 1970, (see Collis Jones at end) Austin Carr 1-4 three-pointers made for reputation, 11-16 on steals for 0.8 average in NBA. Jones 11-16 on steals for 0.9 in NBA career.
21.   Ohio State, 1960, Jerry Lucas 21-26 blocks based on some blocks when NBA started recording his last year, and almost 20 rebounds per game first few NBA years.
22.   Oklahoma, 1985, Wayman Tisdale Steals 11-15 and Blocks 11-15 based on 0.6 NBA career in both, but no three-pointers due to 0 for 21 NBA career.
23.   Oklahoma St, 1946, Bob Kurland, 7-foot 3 time all-american, Reb 1-8, Block 21-30
24.   Princeton, 1965, Bill Bradley 11-16 on steals and 21-26 on blocked shots based on some of both even late in NBA career when the stats were kept there.
25.   Purdue, 1969, Rick Mount 1-5 three-pointers made with 42% his last year in NBA and known for perfect outside shot, 11-16 steals for averaging 0.7 per game in just 22 minutes per game late in career in NBA, and known as rocket.
26.   San Francisco, 1956, Bill Russell, perhaps the greatest defender of all-time, has a 1-12 rebound and 21-30 blocked shots. He averaged 22.5 rebounds a game in his NBA career.
27.   Seattle, 1958, Elgin Baylor 1-16 FT (78% in NBA), 11-15 steal based on 4.3 NBA assists, 1-8 rebound based on 13.5 career NBA rebound average.
28.   St. John's, 1985, (Walter Berry at end) Chris Mullin 3-pointers 1-4 based on 38% career, Steals 11-20 based on 2.0 average 3rd through 7th NBA years. Berry Block 11-16 due to 1 block per 48 minutes in NBA. Mark Jackson Steals 11-20 based on 2.5 first year in NBA, and 3-pointers 1-4 based on 1.1 per game at 38% clip second year in NBA.
29.   Tennessee, 1977, Bernard King 11-20 steals, 21-25 blocks due to 1.5 and 0.5 average first year in NBA.
30.   UCLA, 1972, (3 players) Bill Walton 21-30 for NBA leading 3.2 blocks per game, 11-16 steals for 1.0 per game 3 of 1st four years in NBA. Mike Bibby 11-16 steals due to 1.0 first NBA year, but no blocks. Swen Nater 21-26 blocks due to 1.0 first four years in NBA.
31.   UNC, 1982, (3 players) Michael Jordan Steals 11-20 based on leading NBA 3x in steals, 21-26 blocks based on averaging 1.3 first 4 NBA years. Sam Perkins 11-16 Stealsfor 1.1 first five NBA years. Defense Dunk Adjust changes from -8 to -7.
32.   UTEP (TX W), 1966, David Lattin 11-16 on steals and 21-26 on blocked shots based on decent assists and defensive rebounds in NBA.
33.   Villanova, 1985, (Harold Pressley at end) Ed Pickney Steals 11-16, Blocks 21-25 based on first few NBA years 1.0 and 0.6, but No three-pointers as 0 for 18 in NBA career. Pressley 3-pointers made 1-5 based on 1.5 made per game at over 40% clip in 2nd NBA year.
34.   Virginia, 1981, Ralph Sampson Steals 11-16, Blocks 21-30 based on 1.0 and 2.0 over 1st three years in NBA.
35.   West Virginia, 1959, Jerry West 11-20 on steals and 1-6 on rebounds based on NBA 14-time all star as guard with 6.7 career assist average in NBA. Can play any position.

More detail for stat nerds: The 21st Century Value Add Basketball Game cards are based purely on tempo free stats. The cards from 1987 to 2001 are based on stats except for estimations made on tempo-free translations. However, prior to 1987 certain stats were missing such as many cases of blocked shots, steals and the lack of the three-point line for all but a few teams – so our default was to make the point guard a Steal 11-15 (good) and Block 21-21 (bad) and then decrease the steals and increase the blocks by one for each position down until the Center was a Steal 11-11 (bad) and blocks (21-25 good). The assumption was that 1 in 5 shots made would have been three-pointers since that was the average when the line was put in place. Also players received the same rebound range for offense and defense when the stats did not break out offensive and defensive rebounds. Prior to 1951 rebounds were not recorded, and prior to 1948 points per game were not recorded for most players, so for those early teams we reconstructed based on news accounts and some tournament game box scores.

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