Thursday, November 28, 2019

Midwest Region All-Time March Madness: Big Ten lands 11 of 16 spots including Indiana 1976 and 2002

Counting conference representatives in the second round the Big Ten has 11 of the 16 teams,  the Big 12 two, the Big East 1, Conference USA 1, and there will be 1 independent in Notre Dame.

Note that overtime scores in the bracket above reflect the score at the end of regulation plus one point for the winner. Notre Dame's 74-73 win over St. Joe's reflects a 73-73 tie at the end of regulation, which Notre Dame eventually won in OT 82-80.

That were two upsets in the first five Midwest games (favorites 3-2)
Here is the master list of all 96 teams and predictions. Click on the EastWest, Midwest and South bracket to follow the results in each, or click on the Value Add Basketball Game instructions to get the free game and play for yourself. Click here for the google sheet with player cards for all 96 teams. Click here for box scores to all tournament games.

PDFs of player cards appear below (we cleaned up the typos in years 12/5/2019):

Alabama 1977 to Duke 2010 updated 12/15/2019

Florida 2006 to Iowa 2001 updated 12/15/2019

Kansas 1957 to LSU 2006 updated 12/15/2019 AND Loyola 1963 Team Corrected

Marquette 1977 to Notre Dame 1970 updated 12/16/2019

Ohio State 1960 to Purdue 2018 updated 12/16/2019

San Diego State 2011 to Texas Southern (UTEP) 1966 updated 12/16/2019

UCLA 1972 to Wyoming 1943 updated 12/15/2019 (note includes UNC 1982, while "North Carolina" 2005 is in Marquette to Notre Dame link above)

Table key: dunks = number of uncontested scores out of 36 rolls from 11-36, Stop Dunks = number added (bad) or subtracted (good) from opponents dunk range, Pred Off = average score resulting from team playing cards in 66 possession Value Add Basketball Games against all top 100 teams in history, Pred Def = average points cards would allow in the those games, Net = difference between those two which is used as the teams rating for seeding or knowing who is favored in a given game by how many points (difference between two net scores). E.g. Arizona's 14.2 indicates it would average defeating LSU (5.5) by 8.7 points if they played hundreds of times.  Click here for all box scores from tournament games.

SeedMidwest RegionYearConferenceDunksStop DunksPred OffPred DefNet
5Connecticut2004Big East11-475.458.716.7
20Creighton2014Big East2-372.762.510.2
12Georgetown2007Big East3-669.556.812.7
10Illinois2005Big Ten6-372.258.513.7
16Indiana2002Big Ten6-468.256.811.4
1Indiana1976Big Ten6-976.754.222.5
21Kansas St.2008Big 1210-
19La Salle1954Ind8-271.861.010.8
6Michigan1989Big Ten3-476.760.616.1
14Michigan St.2009Big Ten10-371.659.112.5
2Michigan St.1979Big Ten4-773.855.218.6
18Notre Dame1970Ind12679.969.110.8
11Ohio St.2007Big Ten7-271.758.713.0
3Ohio State1960Big Ten13283.265.118.1
13Oklahoma1985Big 89580.868.112.7
17Oklahoma2016Big 128-172.261.310.9
4Purdue1969Big Ten15282.065.316.7
8Purdue2018Big Ten5-473.859.314.5
15St. Joe's2004A105172.260.112.1
23Wichita St.2013MVC5-167.759.87.9
7Wisconsin2015Big Ten1-671.756.814.9

#11 Ohio State (2007) 73, #22 Wyoming  (1943)

Before taking two years off from his All-American career at Wyoming to fight as a Marine in the South Pacific, the 5-foot-10 Ken Sailors invented the jump shot to shoot over his 6-foot-4 brother and is described as a modern Markus Howard from Marquette - dribbling around and through players. The 1943 team he led to a 32-1 record despite needing to travel for 24 of those games (the NCAA election committee would have loved that), shocked Georgetown for the NCAA title and then shocked NIT champion St. John's in a game between the two champions.

We opened the All-Time Midwest March Madness with Sailor taking on the 2007 Ohio State team, and while Sailors two big men underneath - Jim Weir and Milo Komenich - kept it respectable with 19 rebounds, in the end the Buckeyes will too much and advanced to play their hated rival in the #6 seed Michigan that won the 1999 title. By the time Sailors hit his first jumper, Ohio State led 42-32.

Mike Connelly and Greg Oden took over with the inside-outside game during five possessions after Wyoming cut it to 44-39. Connelly's steal denied Wyoming a chance to get closer, Oden then scored after an offensive rebound, and Connelly scored and was fouled on his next trip, before Oden showed why he is one of the best shot blockers in history with a block, and Ivan Harris' dunk pushed it back to double digits at 57-46 and Wyoming never threatened again. Obviously decades of training made modern athletes much faster and stronger than players from eras past, based on the level of play at hte time Wyoming's player cards left them only a 4-point underdog to Ohio State on the game based on the table above.

#22 Wyoming 1943PtsRebStlsBlksFoulsPossessions Played
James Collins7321237-1 (1)
Floyd Volker4512337-1 (2)
Ken Sailors11600137-1 (3)
Jim Weir201021237-1 (4)
Milo Komenich7901237-1 (5)
Donald Waite2100144-38 (1)
Earl Ray2100144-38 (2)
Jack Downey2101144-38 (3)
Jimmie Reese3100144-38 (4)
Lou Roney2200144-38 (5)
#11 Ohio State 2007PtsRebStlsBlksFoulsPossessions Played
Jamar Butler11350240 to 1 (1), 40-38 (2), 37 (3)
Mike Conley15320144-41, 37-1 (2)
Ron Lewis11301338, 36-1 (3)
Ivan Harris8301222-1 (4)
Greg Oden81013228-1 (5)
David Lighty2100144-41 (1), 40-38 (2)
Daequan Cook4300144-39 (3)
Othello Hunter8310344-24 (4)
Matt Terwilliger6500144-29 (5), 23 (4)

#18 Notre Dame (1970) 82, #15 St. Joe's 80 (OT)

Notre Dame's 1970 team trailed the whole game until Collis Jones drew a foul in the final seconds, hit the 1st free throw to cut Saint Joseph's University (2004) lead to 73-71, then missed the second only to have Austin Carr grab the rebound and score to tie it 73-73. The Irish won 82-80 in OT to advance to play Michigan State Spartans 1979 with Magic Johnson in the next round of my Midwest tournament.

#14 Michigan State (2009) 76, #19 La Salle (1954) 67

LaSalle's Tom Gola looked every bit the all-time college basketball rebound leader (2,201) as he led the game in rebounds (10), points (20) and was the first to block 6 shots in a Value Add game. However LaSalle's low field goal percentage doomed them to a 76-67 loss to Michigan State's 2009 team featuring The freshman Draymond Green.

Kalin Lucas scored 19 to lead the Spartans to a second round game against the 1960 Ohio State team.

#13  Oklahoma (1985) 70, #20 Creighton (2014) 55

On December 17, 2019 I looked at my brackets to pick the next game, when I realized I had a match up between the two teams on my TV. In real basketball Craig McDermott's 2019 Blue Jay's were taking care of Oklahoma 83-73 to give the Big East a 5 games to 2 edge in the Big East-Big 12 challenge.

Our great teams matchup featured Craig's son, th 2014 National Player of the Year Doug McDermott. Their opponent was 1985 Oklahoma and the late, great Wayman Tisdale in his junior year. The annual award for the best freshman of the year is still named after Tisdale for his 1st team All-american freshman season two years earlier.

Tisdale put up 21 points, 12 rebounds and 3 blocked shots - all game highs to help the 1985 squad to a 70-55 win. The key to holding the scary good 3-point shooting Blue Jay's was Oklahoma's incredible pressure defense, racking up 9 steals to win the turnover battle 17 to 11.

McDermott scored 14 but the key may have been sharp shooting center Ethan Wragg hitting an early 3-pointer but then seeing what would have been a second straight 3-pointer rejected by Tisdale.

Oklahoma advances to face the 1969 Purdue squad.

#21 K-State (2008) 85, #12 Georgetown 79

One of the greatest players ever, Michael Beasley, turned in one of the best performances in the game to date with 24 points, 14 rebounds and 4 blocked shots plus drew a 5th foul on Roy Hibbert. K-state now faces another giant Big East team in UConn 2004.

#16 Indiana (2002) 76, #17 Oklahoma (2016) 67

The first thing we know about the all-time round of 32 March Madness is that Indiana University will be represented. The 2002 Indiana team set a game record in steals (13) and forced turnovers (20) to contain Oklahoma 2016s Buddy Hield 76-66.

Through the luck of seeding, at least one Indiana team will now make the next round as well since the 16-seed 2002 Hoosiers now face the 1-seed in the Midwest Indiana 1976, the last undefeated national champs.

#10 Illinois (2005) 77, #23 Wichita State (2013) 55

Deron Williams led the Illini to the most lopsided win of the first round, 77-55, to set up a Big Ten 2nd round game vs the Wisconsin 2015 that in real life knocked off a Kentucky team some considered the best ever. Williams, Luther Head and Dee Brown each had multiple steals and out scored their counter part starters at the first three positions 49-16.

#9 Cincinnati (2002) 79, #24 Loyola (2018) 63

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