Sunday, December 29, 2019

All-Time Great College Basketball Tournament - Scoresheets and Notes on 32 Second Round Games as they Happen

Scroll down for accounts of the 32 simulated games between the greatest teams of all time in the Value Add Basketball Game from the most recent game down to the First played. Click for all 1st round results or for the Game with Player Cards).

Through the first 16 of 32 games in the second round, this is the alphabetical list of winners, and the description of each game appears below in reverse chronological order. The favored teams are 12-4, however all of the #1 and #2 seeds played and went 7-1, so the favorites in other games are 5-3.


Seed2nd Round WinnersScore (Margin)RegionOpponent
#4Cincinnati 196075 - 74 (1)WestGonzaga 2017
#9 (upset)Duke 201064 - 60 (4)EastUConn 1999
#11 (upset)Georgetown 198479 - 73 (6)EastMaryland 2002
#1Indiana 197672 - 49 (23)MidwestIndiana 2002
#1Kansas 200887 - 62 (25)SouthTennessee 1977
#5Kansas 195778 - 68 (10)SouthOklahoma St 2004
#7Kentucky 201276 - 58 (18)SouthGeorgia 1982
#3Louisville 201375 - 61 (14)WestSan Diego St 2011
#2Michigan State 197980 - 60 (20)MidwestNotre Dame 1970
#2NC State 197481 - 80 (1)EastSeton Hall 1989
#12 (upset)Syracuse 198772 - 61 (11)EastVirginia 1981
#6Texas So. (UTEP) 196654 - 53 (1)WestMarquette 1977
#1UCLA 197267 - 59 (8)WestOregon 2017
#2N. Carolina (UNC) 198272 - 70 (2)SouthLSU 2006
#2UNLV 199183 - 80 (3)WestUCLA 2006
#16 (upset)Wake Forest 199667 - 64 (3)EastKentucky 1996

#3 Louisville (2013) 75, #19 San Diego St. (2011) 61

The great Kawhi Leonard and an athletic San Diego State already pulled one upset, but even they lost the turnover battle 20-13 to the best defense and national champion of 2013 - Louisville.

At 35-5, I know Louisville 2013 is not thought of with the likes of Indiana 1976 or UCLA 1972, but calculating their player cards they are a 3-seed in the tournament and capable of beating those or any other teams. Consider that Dieng missed a good bit of the early season, but at full strength the last 20 games of the season Louisville lost one game - a 5-overtime loss at Notre Dame, and won the other 19 including 14 by double digits through the Big East conference play, tournament and NCAA.

The have the most smothering, high pressure defense in the game with Peyton Siva and Russ Smith stealing the ball from everyone on the court – but so did the front line. Then you add incredible 3-point shooting by Luke Hancock and the athletic 6-foot-11 Gorgui Dieng joining the two guards to give Louisville 3 of the top 30 players in the game at www.valueaddbasketball.com and Chane Behanan and Wayne Blackshear pounding the offensive glass and this is a perfectly constructed team.

The already beat one of the UConn national champs in my league play before I started the tournament, and no matter what another team does well, they have the chance to steal the ball and not let the opponent get shots. Smith was the top player in the country at www.kenpom.com, which not only ranked them as the best defense in the country, but the 7th best offense for incredible balance. There were 2nd in both steals and forcing turnovers, and with all respect to the VCU team that was first - Louisville did it against the Big East in its prime.

This one was never in doubt and Smith and Siva dominated, though the Aztecs did a great job of rallying to not get run out of the gym after Louisville jumped to the early double digit lead.


#6 Texas Southern (UTEP 1966) 54, #11 Marquette (1977) 53

The win and score sheet from the win by the team that made history in 1966 is posted on this blog on Cracked Sidewalks. This was the greatest defensive battle of the tournament - both teams forced missed shots with no chance one-sixth of all shots - rolls of 51-56 on the two 6-sided dice.

#11 Georgetown (1984) 79, #6 Maryland (2002) 73

The favored team won the first 10 games of the second round of the all-time Great Basketball tournament, but the next four were minor upsets to make the favorites 10-4.


The difference was the card that was accidentally omitted from our first batch of cards because the system read two "Patrick Ewing" cards from "Georgetown" and deleted the Hall of Fame father and kept his son from the 2007 team. Ewing's 20 to 30 block range means he not only blocks a shot on all block rolls (21-26) when the opposing center has the ball, but also on 21-25 when the block ranges are all cut in half due to a 6,7 or 8 roll on the 8-sided die as well as a 32 roll on the 6-sided dice when any opposing player on the court is shooting the ball. Ewing's 1 to 8 offensive and defensive rebounding make him the best rebounder on the court in almost every match-up - except a few like Wilt Chamberlain and Bill Walton, and this game he was even better than his normal standard.

For the record, Wednesday January 9, 2020 the greater player beat what looked like an even greater team on paper, when Ewing grabbed offensive rebounds on four of Georgetown's last seven actual possessions (I usually do not have the team that is ahead shoot on their last possession) and turned those rebounds into seven points down the stretch to cap the greatest simulated game by a player we've played yet with 27 points, 22 rebounds and 4 blocked shots for a 79-73 win.

Maryland, who won all six actual 2002 tournament games by at least eight points, looked like their dominant future NBA backcourt of Juan Dixon and Steve Blake jumped out to a 50-43 lead with 13:57 to play. Blake was more of the defensive specialist who went onto steal the ball 587 times in the NBA in a long career. Dixon was the player who averaged more than 20 points per game in that season and torched Georgetown for 25 points as Michael Jackson fouled out trying to guard him though Freddie Brown finished the game as an able backup from that year. (Note the Georgetown cards are now corrected in the google drive if you need to reprint, just click here.)



The Terps' dunk range of 51-65 is one of the best few offensive scoring ranges of any of the 96 great teams, though Georgetown's defense of -5 contained it somewhat. Georgetown advances to play the winner of the game between the reigning champions from 2019 in Virginia and the Georgia Tech team of 2004 that already defeated Chris Paul's Wake Forest team.

#9 Duke (2010) 64, #8 UConn (1999) 60

Duke won the toss up game between the 8 and 9 seed to assure the ACC of having a majority of the 8 final teams in the East Regional. Maryland 2002 will be a slightly favorite against Georgetown 2007 to determine if the ACC has a 6-2 edge or 5-3 edge over the Big East of teams in Round 3.

People to not always understand why www.valueaddbasketball.com ranks Jon Scheyer as the most valuable player of the century, nudging out Anthony Davis, and www.kenpom.com ranks the 2010 Duke team as the greatest Duke champion of the Century but it is clear when you play the game. 

Scheyer and the other two guards on the team, Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler almost never turn the ball over (only one roll of 36 - when the two dice total 41 for Scheyer or Smith and only one more for Singler with a 41-42. But they are all dominant steals guys with Scheyer an elite 11-16 on steals and the others almost as elite at 11-15 and even the front line players being elite. This huge advantage in turnover because all three had so much endurance that none of the three rest a single possession on any of the 44 possessions in a Value Add Basketball game.

Add to that Scheyer and Singler being elite 3-point shooters (1 to 3 of 20-sided die a made 3 every time the get the ball and are not stopped by a defender) and it's simply hard for opposing teams to make up for those three dominating turnover exchanges and hitting 3-pointers for an entire game with no chance to rest. Other Duke teams had a lot more NBA talent - but this was the best Duke team of the 21st century.

Richard Hamilton and a typically very tough defensive  1999 UConn team (a -9 as one of the best defensive teams in history) which actually nudged the Duke 1999 team for the title made it a grind it out win.

Duke is also the luckiest team in the tournament because they now face the 16-seed 1996 Wake Forest which was the only 16 or 15 seed to beat a 1 or 2 seed in 8 games when they toppled 1996 Kentucky. While Tim Duncan can beat anyone on a given day, Duke has a much easier path then any of the other 8-9 seed winners.



#12 Syracuse (1987) 72, #5 Virginia (1981) 61

Virginia seemed on the verge of a championship when the athletic 7-foot-4 Ralph Sampson became a repeat national player of the year and deep shooters Jeff Lamp and Lee Raker seemed to create the ultimate inside-outside combo.

However, as my simulation game played out with Syracuse's three future NBA players dominated against a Virginia defense that outside of Sampson was weak on defensive steals, blocked shots and rebounds, I could see why the Orangemen came one last second shot from winning the 1987 title while UVa was handled easily in the semifinal in 1981. Ironically Indiana won the titles both years and both these teams played UNC in the semifinals - with Syracuse beating a No. 2 ranked UNC and Virginia losing by double digits. Syracuse lost with the old rule that you could get 1-and-1 fouls all the way to the end of the game - and Bobby Knight room advantage with Syracuse missing the front end of a 1-and-1 and Indiana hitting a buzzer beater to win the actual title game in 1987.

Lamp and Raker both hit 3-pointers to get the game to single digits a few times, but the unathletic Wahoo's managed only 1 steal and 1 block during the 45 Syracuse possessions we played out.

Seeing the physical mismatch outside of Sampson I looked up the NBA careers and the three Syracuse starters who went on to the NBA - Sherman Douglas, Derrick Coleman and Rony Seikaly - actually outscored Sampson, Lamp and Raker 31,300 points to 9,069 in their NBA careers.

In the all-time great tournament our East Region is already down to only ACC and Big East teams, and the ACC already locked up 4 of the 8 round 3 games and Syracuse's win guaranteed at least 2 spots. The Big East would need wins from Georgetown 1984 against Maryland 2002 and UConn 1999 would need to beat Duke 2011 to match the ACC with 4 of the Final 8 teams in the East Region - otherwise the ACC will have a 6-2 or 5-3 edge.



For the second round we will take a photo of the score sheet, which is available in the game and includes the running score as well as tally of points, rebounds, steals, blocked shots and fouls for each player and the team as a whole. The score sheets include the Dunk Range at the top - any numbers between 51-66 on the 6-sided dice role that are either always a score or always a miss and defensive rebound for each of the two teams (e.g. UCLA scored on 51-56 while Oregon did not score on 51-53 when those two played in the first game at the bottom.

If you use www.kenpom.com you will know the format of listing the predicted score for each game and the actual score - and using his approach for the eight games featuring the 1-seeds and 2-seeds we expected almost 2 upsets (1.8) and actually just had one - with Wake Forest nudging Kentucky - though three other favorites barely hung on for these second round wins. Here were the original predictions based on the cards.

Games Featuring #1 or #2 SeedPrediction
Indiana (1976) 72, Indiana (2002) 49Indiana (1976) 67 - 55 (85%)
Kansas (2008) 87, Tennessee (1977) 62Kansas (2008) 72 - 63 (79%)
WAKE FOREST (1996) 67, KENTUCKY (1996) 64Kentucky (1996) 69 - 62 (73%)
UCLA (1972) 67, Oregon (2017) 59UCLA (1972) 80 - 66 (91%)
Michigan St. (1979) 80, Notre Dame (1970) 60Michigan St. (1979) 67 - 60 (73%)
North Carolina St. (1974) 81, Seton Hall (1989) 80North Carolina St. (1974) 76 - 69 (73%)
UNC (1982) 72, LSU (2006) 70UNC (1982) 67 - 59 (0.76%)
UNLV (1991) 83, UCLA (2006) 80UNLV (1991) 70 - 63 (0.73%)
Likely Upsets 1.8, Actual Upset 1

As we add a game, we add it to the top so the most recent game is the first you read until we complete all 32 games.

#16 Wake Forest (1996) 67, #1 Kentucky (1996) 64


In 100 dice simulated rematches between the 1996 Kentucky and Wake Forest teams, Kentucky wins 73% of the time and by an average score of 69-62.

However, with the #15 and #16 seeds odds in the all-time tournament actually being around ofd the top 5 teams the year they played, the margin of the 8 matches was much tighter then in a regular March madness when 16 seeds might be the 150th or 200th best team.  Each of the 8 #1 and #2 seeds being close to 75% of winning their first game in the all time tournament - the odds were two of the eight would be upset. However,were after they started 7-0 with three close scares, it turned out to be Tim Duncan and Wake Forest which pulled the upset to avenge the actual 1996 tournament game.

The contest was Kentucky's dominant offense and Antoine Walker against Wake Forest dominant defense.

Tony Rutland and Rusty LaRue hit several 3-pointers during the defensive grind, but it was Duncan who rejected Kentucky shots on 3 of the last 7 trips down the court to finish with 15 points, 14 rebounds and 5 blocked shots for the win.



#1 Kansas (2008) 87, Tennessee (1977) 62

Kansas balanced 2008 team went 4-0 playing other Big 12 teams from the 21st century winning by an average score of 75-52 before the all-time tournament starter. They started the tournament just as balanced and dominant, with an 87-62 blowout if Tennessee 1977.

No starter had more than 12 points but when Rush fouled out Collins came back off the bench and scored 16 points despite twice hitting two pointers rather than three pointers because he his endurance was gone. (His 3-point range is 1-3 of 20 and twice he got free for a shot and the 20-sided die was a "3", but you move all die rolls 1 against the shooter so both rolls became a 4.

Mario Chalmers had 4 steals to help disrupt the Vols, though a young Aldrich helped set the tone early on the boards, which the Jayhawks won 36-22.

Bernard King, who led the Vols to a 1st round upset, scored a game-high 20 points.



#1 Indiana (1976) 72, #16 Indiana (2002) 49 - Midwest

Despite the 2002 Indiana squad's double-double from Jeff Newton (10 points and 11 rebounds) and helping to foul out the two big men stars Kent Benson and Scott May, the 1976 Indiana's defense dominated 72-49.

The Hoosiers were the last undefeated team in college basketball history and the first we've played whose starting five steal the ball on all 7 of 36 possible rolls when the opponent has the ball no matter which of the 5 opponents have it (11-16 and 31). The defensive adjustment rating of -9 is one of the best ever, and even against a string offense for the 2002 edition (51-56 dunk range) those two combined to also stop any score on a roll of 51-53, meaning 10 of 36 rolls by the 2002 team had no chance of scoring on that trip.

May scores 19 points and Benson had 11 rebounds before both fouled out - the teams aggressive defense does also foul a lot as those two foul in all 34-36 rolls) and the one front line players who did not foul out - Tom Abernathy had 20 points and 10 rebounds. The great point guard Quinn Buckner was his normal unselfish player with only 2 points. He and fellow back court player Bob Wilkerson both have the max 11-20 steal ranges, which means they not only steal on 11-16, but Wilkerson steals on all rolls of 31, and since he gets that number, Buckner gets To use his four extra numbers to fill the only four 11-16 numbers that are not steals for teammates - the 14-16 when the opposing small forward has the ball since Abernathy's range is 11-13, and the 16 when the opposing center since Benson has an 11-15. May also has a 11-16 so all possible steal numbers are a steak.




#2 UNLV (1991) 83, UCLA (2006) 80

Some questioned me seeding UNLV as the 8th best team in the game, but the fact that Duke stunned this team to deny a title is that much more to Coach Ks credit.

However, after surging out to a 59-41 lead and then Larry Johnson drew a 5th foul on Luck Richard Mbah a Moute it appeared over. However his great backup Ryan Hollis scored 6 points in one stretch of four possessions to cut it to 77-69 with 5:29 (9 possessions) to play even though as a player whose endurance was used up every dice roll was adjusted one against him.

Cedric Bozeman last dunked to cut it to 81-80 with 1:15 (2 possessions left), and when Johnson put up a rare miss it appeared UCLA had a chance for a game-winning shot on their last possession. However Stacey Augmon grabbed the offensive rebound and laid it in to make it 83-80. 

UCLA subbed Michael Roll in for the center due to his incredible 1-6 3-pt made range on the 20-sided die and played for a 3-point shot (every players card gets 1 extra 3-point made in their range for every 2-pt made turned into a miss though they can't more than double the 3-pointer) and Darren Collison (adjusted 1-4 range) tried to get off the game tying shot but turned it over on a 46 with his 41-46 turnover range (the worst range you can have). 

While the No. 2 seeds all won, they were the third to come down to a final possession, as Michael Jordan (UNC) and David Thompson (NC State) both hit free throws at the end of their games to break 80-80 ties. Only Magic Johnson and Michigan State had an easy win. Keep in mind the 15-seeds in these tournaments are mainly Final 4 or top 5 teams in the year they played.




#2 NC State (1974) 81, #18 Seton Hall (1989) 80

In an uncanny coincidence, NC State survived a furious upset bid with their all-time superstar - David Thompson - at the line at the end to win the game in an 80-80 tie. He hit the first free throw for an 81-80 win, after Michael Jordon hit two to enable 1982 UNC to win 82-80.

Thompson had 28 points and 8 rebounds but committed his 4th foul with a 76-73 lead and 1:52 to play. Morris Rivers fouled Morton on a basket and the traditional 3-point play to tie the game 80-80, and then Rivers missed two free throws to leave the game tied 80-80 with each team still having one possession left. Seton Hall committed only their 9th turnover of the game, and Thompson was fouled with seconds left to go to the line for the game-clincher.



#2 Michigan State (1979) 80, Notre Dame (1970) 60


Austin Carr pulled off one big upset in the 1st round, but in the 2nd round Notre Dame 1970s weak defense was no for Magic Johnson.

The 1979 Michigan State squad turned the ball over just 8 times and won 80-60 despite no 3-point line (since both teams played prior to the 3-point line).

Magic scored a game-high 18 points and 6 steals. Notre Dame appeared to have a high rebounding edge, but won the boards only 38-37, and had by far the highest scorer in Carr (38.1 ppg that year) but Michigan State's defense help him to 10 points.


#4 Cincinnati (1960) 75, #13 Gonzaga (2017) 74 -west region


Oscar Robertson, the Big O, capped one of the most complete games in the game yet with his only 3-pointer of the night to win 75-74. Teams prior to the late 1980s did not play with a 3-point line so only one of every five made shots on their cards a 3-pointers - with centers never making a 3-pointer. He finished with 11 rebounds and 4 steals to go along with the 29 points.

Nigel Williams-Goss has just scored the would be game-winner, a 2-pointer with just 37 seconds left, to cap a 31 point, 4 steal night of his own. 

Cincinnati will face the winner of the Loyola 1963 vs. Missouri 1982 game next in the 3rd round of the West Region.



#7 Kentucky (2012) 76, #23 Georgia (1982) 58

Dominique Wilkins (18 pts, 8 rebounds, 2 steals, 3 blocks) gave UGA an early lead and hopes of a second straight upset of a 7-footer after edging the great Bob Kurland and first dynasty in the 1946 Oklahoma A and M team.

However this 7-footer, the greatest college player of the century in Anthony Davis, and his loaded 2012 Kentucky team took control for a 38-25 edge on the boards and 76-58 win.

They now face Michael Jordan and 1982 UNC in a battle of two of the teams with the greatest defenses and most NBA loaded teams in the game in the third round.



#2 UNC (1982) 72, #15 LSU 70


LSU's Glen "Baby" Davis (16 points, 9 rebounds) and Tyrus Thomas (18, 10) dominated the offensive glass to lead upset minded LSU a 36-25 lead. Even after UNC rallied behind Michael Jordan (19 points, 5 steals, 2 blocks) starter 4 fast breaks on steals few could have made (31 roll Jordan steals from any opposing player), LSU regained a 68-67 lead on a steal and 3-pointer by Garrett Temple with a minute to go.

A fast break in the final 9 possessions adds a possession for each team, and after UNC missed to still trail 68-67 left with only one possession left, Jimmy Black stole the ball and hit a 3-pointer to give UNC a 70-68 lead but also add another possession for each so LSU had one more chance. Davis went to the hoop for his 16th point, but at the other end Jordan drove to draw a foul. Jordan had missed two foul shots  with 1:52 to play and the score 67-65 UNC but this time he hit both for the 72-70 win.

They now await the winner of Anthony Davis and Kentucky and Dominique Wilkins and Georgia in the third round.



#5 Kansas (1957) 78, #12 Oklahoma State (2004) 68 - South Region

Oklahoma State dominated Wilt Chamberlain's 1957 Kansas Jayhawks to hold a 54-41 lead with 13 minutes to go. Kansas then set a new mark by scoring on 14 consecutive trips - 2 points each trip - for a 28-8 run that left them ahead 69-62 with 5:29 left to play and they never looked back.



#1 UCLA (1972) 67, #17 Oregon (2017) 59 - West Region

Our initial listing of the 96 great all-time basketball teams in the Value Add Basketball Game tournament showed Bill Walton's 1972 UCLA team was the overall No. 1 seed but with only a 17% chance of winning six straight to take the championship. Based on the player cards, UCLA was given a 91% chance of winning their opening game against the Seattle-Oregon winner with a predicted win of 80-66.

However when Oregon's 2017 team was one of 9 underdogs to pull an upset in the 32 first round games, they may have presented more of a wild card for an upset due to three-point shooters that UCLA did not have to face in 1972 when the 3-point arc was not even in place.

As the notes on the bottom of the scoresheet detail, 3-point plays and even two 4-point plays for Oregon gave the Ducks the lead with only 6 minutes to play, though the Bruins dominated the closing minutes to secure the win, with Bill Walton finishing with 20 points, 13 rebounds and 4 steals.



Bill Walton's card gives several examples of advanced rules for 3-point made ranges before 1987, blocked shots and steals.

First, because almost no players had a 3-point line before 1987, each player card is calculated based on one of their five shots made being behind the line. You can just play the card as-is in basic rules, however, the Advance Rule calls for the player in the center to never make a 3-pointer (his 3-points made and attempted are just changed to 2-pointers) but those 3-point made shot are transferred to teammates.

Adjusting Center's 3-pt made range pre-1987 teams:

Look at the Center's 3-pt made range AND if he gets the ball on just a "5" or if he gets it on two numbers (e.g. 5 & 8) or three numbers (e.g. 5 6&8) like Bill Walton. Then use this chart to determine who gets an extra 3-point made.  In Bill Walton's case he gets the ball on a "5 6 or 8" and his 3-point range made is 1-2, so if you look down the chart there is a "1" in each column meaning that every teammate gets to add one to their 3-pt made range (so if their range was 1-2, we change the 3 from a 2-point made to a 3-point made).

However, if a center only got the ball on an 8-sided die roll of "5" and his 3-pt made range was only 1-1 (the first column) then you would only add a 3-point made if it was after an 8-sided roll of "2" for the shooting guard. The next two rows show scenarios where both a "1" and "2" roll would give and extra 3-pt made after either an 8-sided roll of "1" or "2" - the point guard or shooting guard.


8-sided diemade 3-ptPG1SG2SF3PF46 to 8
51-101000
5 81-111000
51-211000
5 6 81-111100
5 81-211100
51-311100
5 6 81-211111
5 81-311111
5 6 81-311111

Steals

If a player has a steal range of higher than 11-16 after any adjustments, then he can steal the ball on rolls of 16 or sometimes 31 when certain other players are on defense:

  1. Steal 11-17 Also steals on 16 for bottom of 4 other players 
  2. Steal 11-18 Also steals on 16 for bottom TWO of other 4 players 
  3. Steal 11-19 Also steals on 16 for bottom THREE of other 4 players 
  4. Steal 11-20 Steals on a roll of 31 for any player 
  5. Steal 11-21 Steals on all rolls of 31 PLUS 16 for bottom of 4 players 
  6. Steal 11-22 Steals on all rolls of 31 PLUS 16 for bottom 2 of 4 players Blocks


If a player has a block range of higher than 21-26, then he can steal the ball on rolls of 26 or sometimes 32 when certain other players are on defense:

  1. Block 21-27 Also blocks on 26 for top of 4 other players 
  2. Block 21-28 Also blocks on 26 for top TWO of other 4 players 
  3. Block 21-29 Also blocks on 26 for top THREE of other 4 players 
  4. Block 21-30 Also blocks on roll of 32 for any player 
  5. Block 21-31 Blocks on all rolls of 32 PLUS 26 for top of 4 players 
  6. Block 31-32 Blocks on all rolls of 32 PLUS 26 for top TWO of 4

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