Range of scoring margins so far:
Double Digit Wins (4, 25%): Syracuse>Princeton by 17, Duke>Navy by 16, Ohio St.>Wyoming by 13, Marquette > Utah by 10.
4 to 9 point win (3, 19%): Michigan St.>LaSalle by 9, Arizona > LSU by 8, UCLA > Indiana St. by 7.
Last possession - 1, 2 or 3 pt in regulation (5, 31%): Wake Forest>Pitt by 2, Oregon>Seattle by 2, Missouri>Cal by 2, Georgia>Oklahoma A&M by 2, Seton Hall>St. John's by 1.
Overtime (4, 25%): LSU>Alabama, Arizona>Iowa, Auburn>West Virginia, Notre Dame>St. Joe's.
Note that the best 32 teams receive a first found bye, and thus their "1st opponent" is the winner of another game. Click on the Value Add Basketball Game instructions to get the free game and play for yourself. Click here for box scores of games as we add them. At the bottom of this blog click to print out player cards for any of these teams you want to use in games of your own.
School | Year | Conf | Region | Seed | Predicted | Allowed | Win% | 1st opponent/ actual result |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alabama | 1977 | SEC | South | 18 | 67 | 68 | 50% | LSU L. 77-79 OT |
Arizona | 1997 | Pac-10 | West | 9 | 83 | 74 | 79% | LSU (won 85-77) |
Arizona | 2015 | Pac-12 | West | 10 | 67 | 62 | 67% | Iowa (W90-88, 2 OT) |
Arkansas | 1994 | SEC | South | 6 | 69 | 67 | 56% | Auburn v George Mason winner |
Auburn | 2019 | SEC | South | 11 | 65 | 59 | 67% | George Mason |
Auburn | 1984 | SEC | South | 19 | 75 | 77 | 44% | West Virginia (W84-76 OT) |
Butler | 2011 | Horizon | East | 24 | 61 | 70 | 21% | Duke |
California | 1959 | PCC | West | 21 | 60 | 64 | 36% | Missouri L. 69-71 |
Cincinnati | 1960 | MVC | West | 4 | 70 | 65 | 67% | Gonzaga v DePaul winner |
Cincinnati | 2002 | CUSA | Midwest | 9 | 65 | 57 | 79% | Loyola-Chicago |
Connecticut | 2004 | Big East | Midwest | 5 | 65 | 61 | 64% | Georgetown v Kansas St. winner |
Creighton | 2014 | Big East | Midwest | 20 | 74 | 76 | 40% | Oklahoma |
Davidson | 2008 | SC | South | 21 | 62 | 67 | 33% | Oklahoma St. |
DePaul | 1945 | Ind | West | 20 | 61 | 64 | 40% | Gonzaga |
Duke | 2011 | ACC | East | 9 | 70 | 61 | 79% | Butler |
Duke | 1992 | ACC | East | 10 | 74 | 67 | 73% | Navy (W 77-61) |
Florida | 2006 | SEC | South | 3 | 78 | 72 | 70% | West Virginia v Auburn winner |
George Mason | 2006 | CAA | South | 22 | 59 | 65 | 33% | Auburn |
Georgetown | 1984 | Big East | East | 11 | 67 | 62 | 67% | Villanova |
Georgetown | 2007 | Big East | Midwest | 12 | 66 | 63 | 60% | Kansas St. |
Georgia | 1982 | SEC | South | 23 | 66 | 72 | 30% | Oklahoma St |
Georgia Tech | 2004 | ACC | East | 14 | 72 | 70 | 56% | Wake Forest |
Gonzaga | 2017 | WCC | West | 13 | 64 | 61 | 60% | DePaul |
Houston | 1968 | Ind | South | 4 | 68 | 62 | 70% | Texas Tech v South Carolina winner |
Illinois | 2005 | Big Ten | Midwest | 10 | 65 | 59 | 70% | Wichita St. |
Indiana | 1976 | Big Ten | Midwest | 1 | 67 | 55 | 85% | Indiana v Oklahoma winner |
Indiana | 2002 | Big Ten | Midwest | 16 | 63 | 62 | 53% | Oklahoma |
Indiana St. | 1979 | MVC | West | 18 | 65 | 66 | 47% | UCLA (Lost 69-76) |
Iowa | 2001 | Big Ten | West | 23 | 62 | 67 | 33% | Arizona (L88-90 2ot) |
Kansas | 1957 | Big 7 | South | 5 | 66 | 62 | 64% | Oklahoma St. v Davidson winner |
Kansas | 2008 | Big 12 | South | 1 | 72 | 63 | 79% | Texas v Tennessee winner |
Kansas St. | 2008 | Big 12 | Midwest | 21 | 63 | 66 | 40% | Georgetown |
Kentucky | 2012 | SEC | South | 7 | 70 | 69 | 53% | Oklahoma St v Georgia winner |
Kentucky | 1996 | SEC | East | 1 | 69 | 62 | 73% | Wake Forest v Pittsburgh winner |
La Salle | 1954 | Ind | Midwest | 19 | 64 | 66 | 44% | Michigan St. L67-76 |
Louisville | 1980 | Metro | South | 8 | 69 | 69 | 50% | Memphis v VCU winner |
Louisville | 2013 | Big East | West | 3 | 68 | 62 | 70% | Michigan v San Diego St. winner |
Loyola | 1963 | Ind | West | 5 | 73 | 70 | 60% | Missouri v California winner |
Loyola-Chicago | 2018 | MVC | Midwest | 24 | 57 | 65 | 21% | Cincinnati |
LSU | 2006 | SEC | South | 15 | 68 | 67 | 50% | Alabama W in OT |
LSU | 1970 | SEC | West | 24 | 74 | 83 | 21% | Arizona (Lost 77-85) |
Marquette | 2003 | CUSA | East | 13 | 66 | 63 | 60% | West Virginia |
Marquette | 1977 | Ind | West | 11 | 58 | 53 | 67% | Utah W.79-69 |
Maryland | 2002 | ACC | East | 6 | 71 | 68 | 60% | Georgetown v Villanova winner |
Memphis | 2008 | CUSA | South | 9 | 71 | 62 | 79% | VCU |
Michigan | 1989 | Big Ten | Midwest | 6 | 68 | 65 | 60% | Ohio St. v Wyoming winner |
Michigan | 2013 | Big Ten | West | 14 | 64 | 62 | 56% | San Diego St. |
Michigan St. | 1979 | Big Ten | Midwest | 2 | 67 | 60 | 73% | St. Joe's v Notre Dame winner |
Michigan St. | 2009 | Big Ten | Midwest | 14 | 66 | 64 | 56% | La Salle W by 9 |
Missouri | 1982 | Big 8 | West | 12 | 64 | 60 | 64% | California W by 2 |
Navy | 1986 | CAA | East | 23 | 67 | 74 | 27% | Duke (L 61-77) |
North Carolina St. | 1974 | ACC | East | 2 | 76 | 69 | 73% | St. John's v Seton Hall winner |
Notre Dame | 1970 | Ind | Midwest | 18 | 73 | 74 | 47% | St. Joe's W in OT |
Ohio St. | 2007 | Big Ten | Midwest | 11 | 72 | 67 | 64% | Wyoming (W 73-60) |
Ohio State | 1960 | Big Ten | Midwest | 3 | 75 | 70 | 67% | Michigan St. v La Salle winner |
Oklahoma | 1985 | Big 8 | Midwest | 13 | 76 | 74 | 60% | Creighton |
Oklahoma | 2016 | Big 12 | Midwest | 17 | 62 | 63 | 47% | Indiana |
Oklahoma St | 1946 | MVC | South | 10 | 72 | 66 | 70% | Georgia L 80-82 |
Oklahoma St. | 2004 | Big 12 | South | 12 | 67 | 62 | 67% | Davidson |
Oregon | 2017 | Pac-12 | West | 17 | 69 | 69 | 50% | Seattle W64-62 |
Pittsburgh | 2009 | Big East | East | 17 | 62 | 62 | 47% | Wake Forest (L 61-63) |
Princeton | 1965 | Ivy | East | 21 | 64 | 68 | 36% | Syracuse L62-79 |
Purdue | 2018 | Big Ten | Midwest | 8 | 65 | 64 | 53% | Cincinnati v Loyola-Chicago winner |
Purdue | 1969 | Big Ten | Midwest | 4 | 83 | 79 | 64% | Oklahoma v Creighton winner |
San Diego St. | 2011 | MWC | West | 19 | 62 | 64 | 44% | Michigan |
San Francisco | 1956 | CBA | West | 7 | 62 | 61 | 53% | Arizona v Iowa winner |
Seattle | 1958 | Ind | West | 16 | 69 | 69 | 50% | Oregon L62-64 |
Seton Hall | 1989 | Big East | East | 18 | 66 | 67 | 47% | St. John's W by 1 |
South Carolina | 2017 | SEC | South | 20 | 55 | 58 | 40% | Texas Tech |
St. Joe's | 2004 | A10 | Midwest | 15 | 74 | 73 | 53% | Notre Dame L in OT |
St. John's | 1985 | Big East | East | 15 | 67 | 66 | 53% | Seton Hall L by 1 |
Syracuse | 2003 | Big East | West | 8 | 71 | 71 | 50% | Arizona v LSU winner |
Syracuse | 1987 | Big East | East | 12 | 68 | 64 | 64% | Princeton W79-62 |
Tennessee | 1977 | SEC | South | 17 | 72 | 72 | 50% | Texas |
Texas | 2003 | Big 12 | South | 16 | 72 | 72 | 50% | Tennessee |
Texas Tech | 2019 | Big 12 | South | 13 | 58 | 55 | 60% | South Carolina |
UCLA | 1972 | Pac-8 | West | 1 | 80 | 66 | 91% | Seattle v Oregon winner |
UCLA | 2006 | Pac-12 | West | 15 | 66 | 65 | 53% | Indiana St. (won 76=69) |
Uconn | 1999 | Big East | East | 8 | 65 | 63 | 56% | Duke v Butler winner |
UNC | 2005 | ACC | East | 7 | 74 | 71 | 60% | Duke v Navy winner |
UNC | 1982 | ACC | South | 2 | 67 | 59 | 76% | LSU v Alabama winner |
UNLV | 1991 | Big West | West | 2 | 70 | 63 | 73% | UCLA v Indiana St. winner |
Utah | 1998 | WAC | West | 22 | 53 | 58 | 33% | Marquette L by 10 |
UTEP (TX W) | 1966 | Ind | West | 6 | 58 | 56 | 56% | Marquette v Utah winner |
VCU | 2011 | CAA | South | 24 | 62 | 71 | 21% | Memphis |
Villanova | 2018 | Big East | East | 4 | 72 | 67 | 67% | Marquette v West Virginia winner |
Villanova | 1985 | Big East | East | 22 | 62 | 67 | 33% | Georgetown |
Virginia | 2019 | ACC | East | 3 | 62 | 57 | 67% | Georgia Tech v Wake Forest winner |
Virginia | 1981 | ACC | East | 5 | 71 | 67 | 64% | Syracuse v Princeton winner |
Wake Forest | 1996 | ACC | East | 16 | 62 | 62 | 53% | Pittsburgh (won 63-61) |
Wake Forest | 2005 | ACC | East | 19 | 70 | 72 | 44% | Georgia Tech |
West Virginia | 2011 | Big East | East | 20 | 63 | 66 | 40% | Marquette |
West Virginia | 1959 | Southern | South | 14 | 77 | 75 | 56% | Auburn (L76-84 OT) |
Wichita St. | 2013 | MVC | Midwest | 23 | 59 | 65 | 30% | Illinois |
Wisconsin | 2015 | Big Ten | Midwest | 7 | 63 | 62 | 53% | Illinois v Wichita St. winner |
Wyoming | 1943 | MSAC | Midwest | 22 | 67 | 72 | 36% | Ohio St. (L 60-73) |
Bill Walton's 1972 UCLA tops the No. 1 Seed to set up a East vs. West All-Time Semifinal, perhaps against 2008 Kansas or David Thompson's 1974 North Carolina State. The other semifinal will feature the Midwest vs. South Champions, which could feature the last undefeated team in Bobby Knight's 1976 champions from Indiana or Magic Johnson's Michigan State team against the 2008 champions from Kansas or Michael Jordan's UNC champions.
UCLA's 1972 Value Add Basketball Game (VABG) player cards are the strongest of any team, but mathematically the Bruins chances of winning the tournament we are playing in the game is only 17%. Assuming all other seeds win they would be the favorite in all six games they played - the closest being a match-up with Indiana's 1976 team if the top two seeds win their first five - but the chance of winning all six in a row tallies only 17%.
UCLA 1972 | Win% | Cumulative |
---|---|---|
Seattle 1958 | 91% | 91% |
Syracuse 2003 | 82% | 75% |
Cincy 1960 | 76% | 57% |
UNLV 1991 | 73% | 41% |
Kentucky 1996 | 70% | 29% |
Indiana 1976 | 60% | 17% |
PDFs of new and improved player cards appear below:
Alabama 1977 to Duke 2010
Florida 2006 to Iowa 2002
Kansas 1957 to LSU 2006
Marquette 1977 to Notre Dame 1970
Ohio State 1960 to Purdue 2018
San Diego State 2011 to Texas Southern (UTEP) 1966
UCLA 1972 to Wyoming 1943
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