Thursday, November 28, 2019

South Region All-Time March Madness: Barkley vs. Jerry West Nail-biter Kicks of Action

Here is the master list of all 96 teams and predictions. Click on the EastWest, Midwest and South bracket to follow the results in each, or click on the Value Add Basketball Game instructions to get the free game and play for yourself. Click here for the google sheet with player cards for all 96 teams. Click here for box scores to all tournament games.

PDFs of new and improved player cards appear below:

Alabama 1977 to Duke 2010

Florida 2006 to Iowa 2002

Kansas 1957 to LSU 2006

Marquette 1977 to Notre Dame 1970

Ohio State 1960 to Purdue 2018

San Diego State 2011 to Texas Southern (UTEP) 1966

UCLA 1972 to Wyoming 1943

Table key: dunks = number of uncontested scores out of 36 rolls from 11-36, Stop Dunks = number added (bad) or subtracted (good) from opponents dunk range, Pred Off = average score resulting from team playing cards in 66 possession Value Add Basketball Games against all top 100 teams in history, Pred Def = average points cards would allow in the those games, Net = difference between those two which is used as the teams rating for seeding or knowing who is favored in a given game by how many points (difference between two net scores). E.g. Arizona's 14.2 indicates it would average defeating LSU (5.5) by 8.7 points if they played hundreds of times.  Click here for all box scores from tournament games.

SeedSouth RegionYearConferenceDunksStop DunksPred OffPred DefNet
6Arkansas1994SEC (West)7-276.560.915.6
22George Mason2006CAA4066.658.68.0
1Kansas2008Big 1210-275.456.119.3
5Kansas1957Big 78-673.857.116.7
10Oklahoma St1946MVC5-
12Oklahoma St.2004Big 127-272.359.213.1
20South Carolina2017SEC2-
16Texas2003Big 1212074.163.210.9
13Texas Tech2019Big 124-467.255.611.6
14West Virginia1959Southern13579.868.211.6

The first South Region All-Time March Madness game was the first to feature the new Value Add Basketball Game Player Cards - which are much easier to print out and have more of a vertical look than the previous cards. Below see a photo of the layout of the game at the end of the game.

#19 Auburn (1984) 84, #14 West Virginia (1959) 76 in Overtime

The first game with the new card layout turned out to be the most exciting game to date and the first upset of the tournament (though West Virginia wins by just one to two points on average in simulated games between the two).

Jerry West and his 1959 West Virginia dominated most of the game, leading until the final four possessions of regulation including a 52-38 lead in the second half. At that point Charles Barkley only had 6 points.

On the crucial play with 4 possessions.left for each team (less than 3 minutes), Chuck Person went to the hoop and drew the fifth foul on Jerry West, hitting both free throws to tie the score 63-63 with West out for the game after a 19 point, 7 rebound game. His backup Robert Clousson did score to regain the lead 65-65, but with only two trips left Barkley scored and drew a foul for the and-one old fashioned 3-point play to give Auburn their first lead at 66-65. However, West Virginia made it 67-65 leaving each team with one possession to go for each team.

Both teams committed fouls on their final defensive possession - with Auburn's Gerald White (a 65% free throw shooter who makes his shot on a roll of 1-13 on the 20-sided die) hitting both to give Auburn their second lead of the game at 68-67, and then West Virginia's Bob Smith (70%, 1-14 made) missing the first shot and then making the second one to send the game to overtime at 68-68. If he had missed the second, the team's could have battled for the rebound but the offense is less than half as likely to get an offensive rebound on a free throw as on a regular shot missed, making UVa's intentional miss last year all the more amazing).

Auburn dominated the overtime with West out of the game.

#19 Auburn 1984PtsRebStlsBlksFoulsPossessions Played
Gerald White10210229 to 1 (1)
Frank Ford6610544 to 30, 21 to 1 (2)
Greg Turner16701344 to 37, 28 to 1 (3)
Charles Barkley16601236 to 1 (4)
Chuck Person24731444 to 1 (5)
Paul Daniels10210344 to 30 (1), 29 to 22 (2)
Vern Strickland2210344 to 37 (4), 36-29 (3)
Terry Martin00002DNP
Mark Cahill00002DNP
Carey Holland00001DNP
84327327Turnovers: 11
#14 West Virginia 1959PtsRebStlsBlksFoulsPossessions Played
Marvin Bucky Bolyard12410437 to 1 (1)
James Ritchie8500237 to 1 (2)
Bob Smith11802537 to 1 (3)
Willie Akers8703237 to 1 (4)
Jerry West19711544 to 4 (5)
Paul Butch Goode3301144 to 38 (1)
Lee Patrone2000144 to 38 (2)
Joe Posch4000144 to 38 (3)
Robert Clousson10400144 to 38 (4), 3 to 1 (5)
Ronald Retton00000DNP
77382722Turnovers: 15

More to come

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