March Madness 1: Teams with Most NBA Talent

The first of a series of pieces will will post this weekend to help you fill out your March Madness brackets regards how much future NBA talent a team can put on the court. Fans tend to overestimate how many of their players will be in the NBA. In fact, only about 40 of the 4,000+ players on the court this year will be playing in the NBA within a couple of years.

This weekend we will update www.valueaddbasketball.com with a column for the percent chance a player will make the NBA. Auburn's Jabari Smith has the highest rating at 99, meaning he has a 99% chance of making the NBA (due to injuries etc., we never give 100%).

To determine how many players from a team will make the NBA we add up the percentage for each of their players with at least a 20% chance of making the NBA. His teammate Walker Kessler has an 87% chance, Devan Cambridge at 63% chance and Allen Flanigan a 40% chance. Add the odds - 99% + 87% + 63% + 40% = 289% - meaning we would expect 2.89 current Auburn players to make the NBA.

That's the 9th most future NBA talent of either team, with Duke (4.74) edging out Kentucky (4.54), Gonzaga (4.36) and an underachieving Memphis (3.94) for the most talent on the court.

Here is the whole list of teams with at least one player with at least a 20% chance of making the League. You can look up which players on each team have a chance at www.valueaddbasketball.com.
 

Most NBA	Team	Future NBA Players
1	Duke	4.74
2	Kentucky	4.54
3	Gonzaga	4.36
4	Memphis	3.94
5	Baylor	3.47
6	Alabama	3.31
7	North Carolina	3.15
8	LSU	3.00
9	Auburn	2.89
10	Kansas	2.88
11	Arizona	2.86
12	Texas	2.73
13	UCLA	2.66
14	Tennessee	2.57
15	Florida St.	2.43
16	Purdue	2.27
17	Michigan	2.25
18	Villanova	2.17
19	Michigan St.	2.03
20	Oklahoma St.	1.94
21	Connecticut	1.93
22	Illinois	1.74
23	USC	1.68
24	Ohio St.	1.62
25	N.C. State	1.61
26	Mississippi St.	1.60
27	Iowa	1.57
28	Notre Dame	1.54
29	Iowa St.	1.51
30	Seton Hall	1.40
31	Texas Tech	1.39
32	Indiana	1.36
33	TCU	1.36
34	Arkansas	1.34
35	Dayton	1.21
36	Florida	1.18
37	Virginia Tech	1.05
38	Nebraska	1.03
39	Rutgers	1.02
40	Georgia Tech	1.01
41	Maryland	1.00
42	Oregon	0.99
43	Colorado	0.98
44	Xavier	0.96
45	Louisville	0.95
46	Wisconsin	0.93
47	Stanford	0.88
48	Fresno St.	0.86
49	Miami FL	0.85
50	Milwaukee	0.85
51	St. John's	0.85
52	St. Bonaventure	0.81
53	San Francisco	0.80
54	Marshall	0.76
55	San Diego St.	0.73
56	Wake Forest	0.72
57	Georgetown	0.65
58	Texas A&M	0.65
59	Houston	0.64
60	Saint Joseph's	0.64
61	Santa Clara	0.63
62	Mississippi	0.61
63	VCU	0.61
64	Western Kentucky	0.61
65	Colorado St.	0.60
66	Charlotte	0.59
67	West Virginia	0.59
68	Wichita St.	0.58
69	Syracuse	0.54
70	BYU	0.49
71	Detroit Mercy	0.47
72	Boise St.	0.46
73	Clemson	0.44
74	UC Santa Barbara	0.42
75	Vanderbilt	0.41
76	Oral Roberts	0.39
77	South Florida	0.39
78	Arizona St.	0.38
79	Buffalo	0.38
80	Marquette	0.36
81	Oregon St.	0.36
82	Washington St.	0.35
83	Liberty	0.34
84	Louisiana Tech	0.34
85	Northern Iowa	0.33
86	Toledo	0.32
87	Butler	0.31
88	Georgia	0.29
89	Cal Baptist	0.28
90	Lipscomb	0.28
91	Montana St.	0.28
92	Tennessee St.	0.28
93	Utah St.	0.28
94	Louisiana	0.27
95	SMU	0.27
96	South Carolina	0.27
97	Duquesne	0.26
98	Saint Peter's	0.26
99	Utah	0.26
100	Creighton	0.25
101	Hawaii	0.25
102	Richmond	0.25
103	Virginia	0.24
104	Saint Louis	0.22
105	San Jose St.	0.22
106	Nevada	0.21
107	Florida Gulf Coast	0.20
108	Providence	0.20
109	UCF	0.20
110	UTEP	0.20