March Madness 4: Which Teams Hurt by Injuries or Helped by Returning Player

After Ohio State was listed as a +4 point favorite against a Michigan team in controversy, we noted in this blog that Michigan should actually be a 4 point favorite once adjusting for the www.valueaddbasketball.com. As we expected, Michigan won by 6.

A big factor in tournament games is not only injuries, but also if a team is actually better than their team ratings indicated because a key player missed some games. The following are the teams are actually better than their ranking at www.kenpom.com represents as long as the player listed takes the court. 

For example, Kofi Cockburn's Value Add is 8.04, but he just played 26 of 31 games so his Value Add per game played is actually 1.3 points better at 9.34. That means the +19.56 rating Illinois has at www.kenpom.com would project to a 20.86 with Cockburn on the court for March Madness which would make them the 15th best team in the country.

On the flip side, Wyoming hopes to sneak into the tournament, and if do make sure Hunter Maldanado is playing. The bottom of the chart indicates which recently injured players would hurt their team the most if out - and Maldanado was questionable a few games ago and his loss would make Wyoming -9.36 points worst. That would drop their www.kenpom.com rating from a 13.06 for 58th best in the country, to a 3.70 and the 126th best in the country.

To check on any player, click on College Basketball Injuries to make sure a key player is available.

Big factor is how health a team is.

Improves by	Player missed games	Team	VA	G	Team G
2.23	Marcus Sasser	Houston	3.56	12	32
2.14	Bryce Aiken	Seton Hall	4.27	15	30
1.92	Andre Kelly	California	5.59	21	32
1.89	Khalif Battle	Temple	2.52	7	28
1.54	Javon Freeman-Liberty	DePaul	6.83	24	31
1.47	LJ Cryer	Baylor	3.62	19	32
1.45	Tolu Smith	Mississippi St.	3.69	20	33
1.4	Eliel Nsoseme	Georgia St.	4.37	17	25
1.35	Malik Osborne	Florida St.	2.99	17	31
1.31	Jesse Edwards	Syracuse	4.81	24	33
1.3	Kofi Cockburn	Illinois	8.04	26	31
1.25	Colin Castleton	Florida	6.68	26	32
1.21	Adrian Baldwin	VCU	4.54	22	30
1.18	Josip Vrankic	Santa Clara	4.72	24	32
1.15	Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua	Baylor	5.27	25	32
1.12	Terrence Shannon	Texas Tech	3.37	22	33
1.1	DeAndre Williams	Memphis	4.54	22	29
1.1	Kevin McCullar	Texas Tech	4.54	25	33
1.08	Jarkel Joiner	Mississippi	3.44	22	32
1.05	Dawson Garcia	North Carolina	2.09	16	32
1.02	Jaylen Clark	UCLA	5.29	25	31
0.95	Marquise Kennedy	Loyola Chicago	3.27	22	31
0.91	Foster Loyer	Davidson	6.81	26	30
0.91	Sam Griesel	North Dakota St.	4.68	25	31
0.91	Olivier Nkamhoua	Tennessee	3.13	22	31
0.9	Branden Carlson	Utah	3.98	24	31
0.88	Noel Coleman	Hawaii	2.86	18	26
0.87	Josh LeBlanc	UAB	2.26	19	31
0.86	Dameane Douglas	Loyola Marymount	1.6	13	28
0.85	Anthony Polite	Florida St.	3.77	24	31
0.82	Tre Mitchell	Texas	3.28	24	32
0.8	Johnny Juzang	UCLA	4.94	26	31
0.78	Silvio De Sousa	Chattanooga	3.56	25	32
0.77	Markquis Nowell	Kansas St.	5.97	27	31
0.76	Josh Jefferson	Middle Tennessee	5.88	27	31
0.76	Tyrese Martin	Connecticut	6.09	28	32
0.75	Ryan Davis	Vermont	5.85	27	31
0.74	Jalen Duren	Memphis	5.4	25	29
0.74	Hunter Tyson	Clemson	3.39	25	32
0.73	Sy Chatman	Illinois St.	1.74	18	31
0.72	Hall Elisias	Bryant	3.09	23	30
0.71	Duke Miles	Troy	1.81	17	28
0.7	Ray'Sean Taylor	SIU Edwardsville	1.9	19	30
0.7	Kevion Nolan	Jacksonville	6.05	23	26
0.69	Cody Riley	UCLA	2.37	22	31
0.68	Bernardo Da Silva	Hawaii	3.56	21	26
0.67	Jared Bynum	Providence	4.99	26	30
0.67	Damari Monsanto	Wake Forest	1.19	14	32
0.66	Jalen Cook	Tulane	4.59	24	28
0.66	Souley Boum	UTEP	6.59	27	30
inj -1.25	RJ Melendez	Illinois	1.6	21	31
if inj -1.5	PJ Hall	Clemson	4.5	30	30
if inj -1.53	Darnell Rogers	UMBC	1.4	28	28
inj -1.57	Cam'Ron Fletcher	Florida St.	1.62	29	29
if inj -2.29	Jamaine Mann	Vanderbilt	2.17	24	33
if inj -2.35	Warith Alatishe	Oregon St.	1.55	28	28
inj -2.46	Caleb Mills	Florida St.	2.69	26	31
if inj -2.76	Keondre Kennedy	UMBC	2.07	29	29
if inj -2.85	Jeremiah Williams	Temple	2.44	22	28
inj -2.9	Hunter Marks	Hartford	2.4	20	20
if inj -2.99	Steven Ashworth	Utah St.	3.87	31	31
inj -3.47	Brandon Mahan	UCF	3.33	25	30
if inj -3.87	Zed Key	Ohio St.	3.2	27	30
if inj -4.62	Kyle Young	Ohio St.	3.73	25	30
if inj -5.23	Jacob Grandison	Illinois	4.96	28	31
if inj - 5.74	Vince Williams	VCU	7.69	28	30
if inj -5.79	Brandon Newman	Purdue	1.39	21	21
if inj -9.36	Hunter Maldonado	Wyoming	8.81	32	32