Saturday, March 12, 2022

March Madness 4: Which Teams Hurt by Injuries or Helped by Returning Player

After Ohio State was listed as a +4 point favorite against a Michigan team in controversy, we noted in this blog that Michigan should actually be a 4 point favorite once adjusting for the As we expected, Michigan won by 6.

A big factor in tournament games is not only injuries, but also if a team is actually better than their team ratings indicated because a key player missed some games. The following are the teams are actually better than their ranking at represents as long as the player listed takes the court. 

For example, Kofi Cockburn's Value Add is 8.04, but he just played 26 of 31 games so his Value Add per game played is actually 1.3 points better at 9.34. That means the +19.56 rating Illinois has at would project to a 20.86 with Cockburn on the court for March Madness which would make them the 15th best team in the country.

On the flip side, Wyoming hopes to sneak into the tournament, and if do make sure Hunter Maldanado is playing. The bottom of the chart indicates which recently injured players would hurt their team the most if out - and Maldanado was questionable a few games ago and his loss would make Wyoming -9.36 points worst. That would drop their rating from a 13.06 for 58th best in the country, to a 3.70 and the 126th best in the country.

To check on any player, click on College Basketball Injuries to make sure a key player is available.

Big factor is how health a team is.
Improves byPlayer missed gamesTeamVAGTeam G
2.23Marcus SasserHouston3.561232
2.14Bryce AikenSeton Hall4.271530
1.92Andre KellyCalifornia5.592132
1.89Khalif BattleTemple2.52728
1.54Javon Freeman-LibertyDePaul6.832431
1.47LJ CryerBaylor3.621932
1.45Tolu SmithMississippi St.3.692033
1.4Eliel NsosemeGeorgia St.4.371725
1.35Malik OsborneFlorida St.2.991731
1.31Jesse EdwardsSyracuse4.812433
1.3Kofi CockburnIllinois8.042631
1.25Colin CastletonFlorida6.682632
1.21Adrian BaldwinVCU4.542230
1.18Josip VrankicSanta Clara4.722432
1.15Jonathan Tchamwa TchatchouaBaylor5.272532
1.12Terrence ShannonTexas Tech3.372233
1.1DeAndre WilliamsMemphis4.542229
1.1Kevin McCullarTexas Tech4.542533
1.08Jarkel JoinerMississippi3.442232
1.05Dawson GarciaNorth Carolina2.091632
1.02Jaylen ClarkUCLA5.292531
0.95Marquise KennedyLoyola Chicago3.272231
0.91Foster LoyerDavidson6.812630
0.91Sam GrieselNorth Dakota St.4.682531
0.91Olivier NkamhouaTennessee3.132231
0.9Branden CarlsonUtah3.982431
0.88Noel ColemanHawaii2.861826
0.87Josh LeBlancUAB2.261931
0.86Dameane DouglasLoyola Marymount1.61328
0.85Anthony PoliteFlorida St.3.772431
0.82Tre MitchellTexas3.282432
0.8Johnny JuzangUCLA4.942631
0.78Silvio De SousaChattanooga3.562532
0.77Markquis NowellKansas St.5.972731
0.76Josh JeffersonMiddle Tennessee5.882731
0.76Tyrese MartinConnecticut6.092832
0.75Ryan DavisVermont5.852731
0.74Jalen DurenMemphis5.42529
0.74Hunter TysonClemson3.392532
0.73Sy ChatmanIllinois St.1.741831
0.72Hall ElisiasBryant3.092330
0.71Duke MilesTroy1.811728
0.7Ray'Sean TaylorSIU Edwardsville1.91930
0.7Kevion NolanJacksonville6.052326
0.69Cody RileyUCLA2.372231
0.68Bernardo Da SilvaHawaii3.562126
0.67Jared BynumProvidence4.992630
0.67Damari MonsantoWake Forest1.191432
0.66Jalen CookTulane4.592428
0.66Souley BoumUTEP6.592730
inj -1.25RJ MelendezIllinois1.62131
if inj -1.5PJ HallClemson4.53030
if inj -1.53Darnell RogersUMBC1.42828
inj -1.57Cam'Ron FletcherFlorida St.1.622929
if inj -2.29Jamaine MannVanderbilt2.172433
if inj -2.35Warith AlatisheOregon St.1.552828
inj -2.46Caleb MillsFlorida St.2.692631
if inj -2.76Keondre KennedyUMBC2.072929
if inj -2.85Jeremiah WilliamsTemple2.442228
inj -2.9Hunter MarksHartford2.42020
if inj -2.99Steven AshworthUtah St.3.873131
inj -3.47Brandon MahanUCF3.332530
if inj -3.87Zed KeyOhio St.3.22730
if inj -4.62Kyle YoungOhio St.3.732530
if inj -5.23Jacob GrandisonIllinois4.962831
if inj - 5.74Vince WilliamsVCU7.692830
if inj -5.79Brandon NewmanPurdue1.392121
if inj -9.36Hunter MaldonadoWyoming8.813232

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