Saturday, March 5, 2022

If Key and Young Out for Ohio State, Michigan Becomes Favorite (and 30 other teams missing key players)

At, Wyoming is favored 64-60 in a huge game with Fresno State. However, Hunter Maldanado is listed as questionable, and if he does not play calculates that costs Wyoming 9 points - changing the projections from a 4-point win to a 5-point loss.

The costs of a player missing the game is calculated as follows at If the missing player is not listed as one of the seven most valuable players on the team, then the impact is very small. However, if the player is one of the team's seven best, then you take his Value Add and subtract the Value Add of the 8th best player on the team. In this case Maldonado ranks near All-American level at a 9.44 Value Add and Wyoming's 8th best player is worth only 0.08 (they are not a deep team) so him being missing costs the team 9.36. 

Kenny Foster is also out, but he has been out all but a few games, so at this point they've mainly played without him anyway - so the current ratings is almost exactly correct. 

The team hurt the second most by missing layers would be Ohio State, if Kyle Young and Zed Key are gone. If they are both out their +4 points projected at drops to a projected -4.0 for a loss.

The following are the 30 teams most hurt by current injuries. As you can see, some just appear to be minor and making a player questionable for their next game, but others are season long injuries that will alter a team's ability to win games in March Madness.

Here is the same table in another format.
RnkTeamPlayerPosInjuryValue3rd off BenchTeam Hurt
1WyomingH. MaldonadoGQues Sat - Undisclosed9.440.089.36
  K. FosterGOut indefinitely - Ankle0.350.080.27
2Ohio StK. YoungFQues Sun - Illness5.290.674.62
  Z. KeyFQues Sun - Ankle4.540.673.87
  J. SueingFOut indefinitely - Abdominal1.230.670.56
3DavidsonF. LoyerGQues Sat - Lower Body7.5407.54
4Middle Tennessee St.J. JeffersonGQues Sat - Undisclosed7.940.637.31
5Florida StateM. OsborneFout for season - Ankle4.0513.05
  C. MillsGOut indefinitely - Ankle3.4612.46
  C. FletcherGout for season - Thumb2.5711.57
6IllinoisJ. GrandisonGQues Sun - Shoulder6.881.655.23
  R. MelendezGOut indefinitely - Appendix2.91.651.25
  B. Bosmans-VerdonkFQues Sun - Concussion1.961.650.31
7VCUV. Williams Jr.FQues Sat - Ankle6.861.125.74
  M. TsohonisGQues Sat - Concussion1.321.120.2
8Kansas StateM. NowellGOut Sat - Undisclosed60.075.93
9PurdueS. StefanovicGQues Sat - Finger7.491.75.79
10TempleJ. WilliamsGQues Sun - Undisclosed3.530.692.84
  K. BattleGout for season - Foot2.770.692.08
  J. ForresterFOut indefinitely - Illness1.450.690.76
11BaylorJ. Tchamwa TchatchouaFout for season - Knee5.762.163.6
  L. CryerGMid March - Foot4.182.162.02
12SyracuseJ. EdwardsCout for season - Wrist5.2905.29
  S. TorrenceGQues Sat - Concussion0.2800.28
13UCLAJ. JuzangGQues Sat - Ankle7.512.175.34
14CaliforniaA. KellyFout for season - Ankle6.611.535.08
15TulaneJ. CookGQues Sun - Hamstring5.30.54.8
16UMBCK. KennedyGQues Sun - Undisclosed3.150.392.76
  D. RogersGQues Sun - Undisclosed1.920.391.53
17ClemsonP. HallFQues Sat - Foot4.790.943.85
18ColumbiaJ. OdunowoFout for season - Undisclosed1.620.091.53
  L. MurphyFQues Sat - Undisclosed1.590.091.5
  I. NwekeFQues Sat - Illness0.560.090.47
19DuquesneT. WilliamsCout for season - Knee2.2602.26
  L. Ayers IIIGQues Sat - Undisclosed0.9200.92
  A. RotroffFMid March - Foot0.3200.32
20Central FloridaB. MahanGOut indefinitely - Foot4.721.253.47
21Florida InternationalT. BrewerGQues Sat - Undisclosed4.030.593.44
22FloridaA. DurujiFQues Sat - Ankle4.121.522.6
  J. JitobohCout for season - Eye2.211.520.69
23Utah St.S. AshworthGDoub Fri - Undisclosed4.861.872.99
24HartfordH. MarksFout for season - Undisclosed2.940.042.9
25ChattanoogaS. De SousaFQues Wed - Abdominal3.30.492.81
26Seton HallB. AikenGOut indefinitely - Concussion5.522.782.74
27Boston CollegeT. BickerstaffFOut indefinitely - Calf2.7302.73
28VanderbiltJ. MannGQues Sat - Knee3.581.292.29
  R. ChatmanGMid March - Hamstring1.681.290.39
29Oregon St.W. AlatisheFQues Sat - Undisclosed2.360.012.35
  X. Malone-KeyGOut indefinitely - Back0.060.010.05
30SIU EdwardsvilleR. TaylorGout for season - Knee2.410.032.38

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