Showing posts with label vermont basketball. Show all posts
Showing posts with label vermont basketball. Show all posts

Thursday, November 23, 2023

American East and the Return of Value Add Basketball Rankings

All-America East Conf    Team                 Value  AdjO  AdjD   Notes
Tra'Von FaganUMBC6.86131.111218-14, Poss 20.2%
Matt VerettoVermont6.74125.8104.215-seed, 23-11, Poss 17.3%
Aaron DeloneyVermont6.71113104.215-seed, 23-11 (PG), Poss 25.1%
Everette HammondUMass Lowell5.98118104.726-8, Poss 22.4%
Matteo PicarelliUMBC5.31124.411218-14, Poss 18.6%
HM-America East ConfTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Dylan PennVermont4.66110.8104.215-seed, 23-11, Poss 25.2%

Above is a very late All-American East Conference team from the 2022-23 season, and we will be updating these and the top 300 players at www.valueaddbasketball.com to go along with the rankings going back to the 2001-02 season. While this system received rave reviews from Sports Illustrated, ESPN, Fox Sports and many others, last season we skipped because we lost the ability to rank all 4000 players who take the court for D1 action.

Vermont rules the conference ever since the stunner over Syracuse years ago, and though they haven't repeated a March Madness upset they always seem dangerous - as they did recently in stretching Arkansas. UMass Lowell hopes they are replacing UMBC as the chief challenger to Vermont, but they will have to show they can beat them again after pulling one upset last year and now graduated Everette Hammond torching them for an incredible 12 of 19 three pointers in three games against them. However, Value Add calculated a familiar American East scene with three of the top six conference players from Vermont as they won the other two against UMass Lowell and took the conference again.

So far the American East has not been impacted by realignment as you can see from the grid. As we posted this, Pomeroy ranked UMass Lowell and Vermont as virtually even and more than 100 spots ahead of the rest of the conference this year.

Team                          2023    2024   2025    Seed23   Rnk24
AlbanyAEAEAE 303
BinghamtonAEAEAE 256
BryantAEAEAE 212
MaineAEAEAE 237
New HampshireAEAEAE 263
NJITAEAEAE 353
UMass LowellAEAEAE 111
UMBCAEAEAE 259
VermontAEAEAE15108

Better late than never - this is one of 32 lists of All-Conference teams based on the "resurrected" Value Add Basketball rankings at www.valueaddbasketball.com. The other 31 releases of Conference teams will all include this same explanation for the rest of the blog, including the 10 returning All-Americans and top 60 players from last season listed further down.

This paragraph is of interest to stat nerds only. The offensive ratings were easier to recreate, since the basis was to pull hundreds of players ranked as the most efficient last season (AdjO at www.kenpom.com) and adjusting their figures for their percent of possessions. A player who can produce about 1.2 points per time he has the ball who also gets the ball 25% of the time against tough competition and as part of a strong defense can be All-American level, but a player who doesn't get the ball nearly as often but produces even more at 1.3 points per possession can still be All-Conference even if fans feel other players handling and shooting the ball more are better due to higher points scored per game.

The new simplified system weighs their ability to produce points against the Adjusted Defense (AdjD) - that is how many points per 100 trips would their team allow against an average D1 team. This accounts both for defense and for level of competition. We also note if a player is a Point Guard, the most important position on the court.

The resulting "Value" listed in the third column is the Value Add of points the player would improve an average team over if he could not play if a decent replacement took his place. Zach Edey was by far the most valuable player in the country last year at 13.17 meaning typically he would turn a 65-70 loss for a team into a 72-64 win - a 13 point swing. The notes off to the first indicated the team's record, their seed if they made the tournament, and then if they went to the NBA in the 2023 draft or are projected to go in the 2024 or 2025 draft.

1st and 2nd Team Returning All-Americans; and Top 60 Players from Last Season
 
The table below is the list of the 30 most valuable players in college basketball for the 2022-23 season according to our simplified www.valueaddbasketball.com rankings. Obviously most of these top players finished their eligibility or went pro so are no longer playing. However, if we made this our All-American teams of returning players including transfers at their new school the headline would be from Creighton.

1st Team Returning All-Americans - Value Add Basketball calculates that Creighton now has two of the three most valuable players in 2022-23 in returning Ryan Kalkbrenner and Utah State transfer Steven Ashworth. Ironically, Thursday it was Colorado State that handed Creighton its first loss - a team that Ashworth had dominated four of seven times in conference games at Utah State. The other 1st Team All-Americans based on last year's Value Add would be J'Wan Roberts returning for Houston, and then Tylor Perry who transferred from North Texas to Kansas State.

Most Valuable Player for 2nd Year. However, the far and away Most Valuable Player in the Country could challenge Anthony Davis, Jon Scheyer and Zion Williamson for as the most Valuable college player of the century in the All-Time Value Add Basketball Rankings - Zach Edey who was almost 2 points better than anyone in the country last year at Purdue and has them at No. 1 this season.

2nd Team Returning All-Americans - The 6th most valuable returning player according to Value Add is Marquette Point Guard Tyler Kolek. He would be joined on a second team All-American squad of returning players by Tennessee's Santiago Vescovi, Texas transfer from Oral Roberts Max Abmas, Duke's Ryan Young, Arizona's Azuolas Tubelis and finally Cam Spencer, who transferred from Rutgers to UConn.

In all, 18 of the top 30 players finished their college careers, leaving those 10 returning All-Americans and then two other players - JaKobe Coles of TCU and USC's Boogie Ellis.
 
All-American 1st Team    Team               Value    AdjO  AdjDNotes                                                
Zach EdeyPurdue13.17125.994.51-seed, 29-6, nba 58 in 2024
Adama Sanogo (gone)Connecticut11.37122.690.94-seed, 31-8, Poss 26.4%
Marcus Sasser (gone)Houston11.25123.490.41-seed, 33-4, nba 25 in 2023
Ryan KalkbrennerCreighton10.80133.493.26-seed, 24-13, Poss 19.4%
Steven Ashworth (Creigh)Utah St.10.72127.798.910-seed, 26-9 (PG), Poss 21.6%
All-American 2nd TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Tylor Perry (K-State)North Texas10.37124.394.131-7, Poss 24.4%
Brandon Miller (gone)Alabama10.23117.088.21-seed, 31-6, nba 2 in 2023
Xavier Castaneda (gone)Akron9.94121.9103.422-11 (PG), Poss 29.4%
J'Wan RobertsHouston9.90127.990.41-seed, 33-4, Poss 18.4%
Jordan Hawkins (gone)Connecticut9.88121.290.94-seed, 31-8, nba 14 in 2023
All-American 3rd TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Jaime Jaquez (gone)UCLA9.80113.1882-seed, 31-6, nba 18 in 2023
Jalen Pickett (gone)Penn St.9.66118.7101.110-seed, 23-14 (PG), nba 32 in 2023
Jordan Walker (gone)UAB9.64114.797.929-10 (PG), Poss 30.6%
Tyler KolekMarquette9.6311896.72-seed, 29-7 (PG), Poss 24.1%
Santiago VescoviTennessee9.52114.287.54-seed, 25-11 (PG), Poss 18.8%
All-American 4th TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Max Abmas (Texas)Oral Roberts9.47120.2102.212-seed, 30-5 (PG), Poss 27.6%
Trayce Jackson-Davis (g)Indiana9.45118.597.24-seed, 23-12, nba 57 in 2023
Ryan YoungDuke9.37128.793.95-seed, 27-9, Poss 18.3%
Kendric Davis (grad)Memphis9.24111.196.18-seed, 26-9 (PG), Poss 31.6%
Drew Timme (grad)Gonzaga9.21119.699.33-seed, 31-6, Poss 30.6%
All-American 5th TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Markquis Nowell (gone)Kansas St.8.92111953-seed, 26-10 (PG), Poss 27.6%
Souley Boum (gone)Xavier8.87119.298.63-seed, 27-10 (PG), Poss 21.2%
Oscar Tshiebwe (gone)Kentucky8.83122.698.86-seed, 22-12, Poss 24.5%
Terence Lewis (gone)Louisiana8.74131.2102.913-seed, 26-8, Poss 20.3%
Darius McGhee (gone)Liberty8.68114.597.527-9, Poss 33.4%
All-American 6th TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Azuolas TubelisArizona8.68116.196.32-seed, 28-7, Poss 28.7%
Cam Spencer (UConn)Rutgers8.66119.490.819-15, Poss 19.8%
Sir'Jabari Rice (gone)Texas8.66116.392.12-seed, 29-9, Poss 23.4%
JaKobe ColesTCU8.64118.494.36-seed, 22-13, Poss 23.4%
Boogie EllisUSC8.56113.397.510-seed, 22-11 (PG), Poss 25.7%

Saturday, March 12, 2022

March Madness 5: Teams with the Experience Guards to Pull Upsets

 As of March 12 at 9 p.m., a total of 80 teams could still make the tournament either by being selected for winning their conference championship game. Nothing can be more important to an upset bid then good, experienced guards. This is where a Mid-Major can sneak up and stun a more experienced younger team.

To get a mathematical measurement, we take the www.valueaddbasketball.com ranking of each senior guard on each team then take half of the value of each junior guard on the same team to get a total. Of the 80 teams, 22 do not have any junior or senior guards with value so those teams are a zero in these rankings.

The top 3 teams in the tournament based on this metrix are:

1. Villanova looks like the national champion based on this criteria, with a senior point guard Collin Gillespie ranking as the 8th best player in the country (10.15), with junior guard Justin Moore in the top 2% of all players (we include half of his 7.59 in this ranking, and senior guard Brandon Slater in the top 3% of all players (6.73). They won the Big East title today.

2. Illinois star is center Kofi Cockburn, but their next three most valuable players are all senior guards - Trent Frazier (top 2% at 7.30), Alfonso Plummer (top 4%, 6.10) and Jacob Grandison (top 7%, 5.21).

3. Vermont. After watching Vermont's senior guards dominant UMBC 82-43 in the American East title game today, we must wonder if that conference has another big upset brewing. It has been years since Vermont sunned Syracuse in the opening round, but only a few years since their victim today, UMBC, became the first 16-seed to beat a 1-seed with a 74-54 win over a UVA team that went onto win the title the next year.

Our all-time Value Add Basketball rankings indicate senior guard Ben Shungu is the fourth Vermont player to rank in the top 2% of all players, with the first one being the senior Value Add All-American Taylor Coppenrath who scored 16 points in that 60-57 win against Syraucse in 2005. 

Here is how the rest of the team's rank based on good, experienced guards.

RnkBest Experienced GuardsAdj Value Add
1Villanova25.93
2Illinois21.89
3Vermont19.26
4Texas Tech18.10
5Texas18.04
6UCLA17.58
7Seton Hall17.08
8San Francisco16.63
9Wyoming15.64
10SMU15.40
11Houston15.34
12Connecticut15.31
13Gonzaga15.14
14Alabama14.98
15Oklahoma14.95
16Richmond14.86
17BYU14.83
18Wake Forest14.64
19Kansas13.66
20UAB13.59
21Michigan12.99
22Northern Colorado12.91
23Providence12.59
24Kentucky11.49
25Arkansas11.48
26Memphis11.29
27Baylor10.42
28Davidson10.33
29Princeton10.30
30Purdue10.00
31Colgate9.48
32Xavier9.32
33TCU9.21
34Longwood9.10
35Rutgers9.02
36Iowa8.52
37Yale8.13
38Marquette7.95
39Wisconsin7.77
40USC7.49
41Bryant6.67
42Virginia Tech6.54
43Duke6.09
44Delaware5.60
45Louisiana Tech5.30
46Tennessee5.23
47Chattanooga5.19
48Creighton5.06
49Texas A&M4.95
50Indiana4.77
51Notre Dame4.38
52North Carolina4.21
53Auburn4.07
54Arizona3.24
55Southeastern Louisiana2.92
56LSU2.81
57Akron2.64
58Texas Southern2.44
59Boise State0.00
60Cal State Fullerton0.00
61Colorado State0.00
62Georgia State0.00
63Iowa State0.00
64Jacksonville State0.00
65Kent State0.00
66Long Beach State0.00
67Loyola-Chicago0.00
68Miami (FLA.)0.00
69Michigan State0.00
70Montana State0.00
71Murray State0.00
72New Mexico State0.00
73Norfolk State0.00
74Ohio State0.00
75San Diego State0.00
76South Dakota State0.00
77St. Mary's (CA)0.00
78St. Peter's0.00
79Texas A&M-Corpus Christi0.00
80Wright State0.00