Sunday, August 5, 2018

Statis-Pro AL Blog Continues: Mariners eliminate Angels and catch White Sox for last Wild Card Spot

Games 17 & 18

  1. The White Sox dodged bullets to split six games with Kansas City to move to 29-25 - still in a spot for the last wild card spot but leaving Seattle and Oakland close. The expected pitchers duel between aces Duffy (for KC) and the White Sox Giolito was a 1-0 KC lead on a Duda home run through seven innings, but a double by Castillo in the 8th tied it and Moncada hit a triple with one out in the ninth to plate Anderson with the winner. Giolito and Duffy finished with identical 2.23 ERAs, though Duffy had one more win at 10-5. KC then almost pulled off the three-game sweep (5+ run win) in the next game when Cuthbert pinch hit for Duda against PB2-8 rookie lefty Fry and hit a 3-run homer that made it 7-2. Castillo, who has hit cleanup in Statis-Pro while actually sitting a suspension and homered earlier, then hit a 2-run double in the 8th to keep the final 7-4 score as just 2 games to 1 win to even the overall at 3 games apiece.
  2. Seattle's ace Leake (final 8-4, 1.40) pitched Seattle to a 3-game sweep (7-2 score) to move 1/2 game ahead of the White Sox for the final wild-card spot. The most astonishing final record of the year is for Ohtani who appeared every bit the Cy Young winner but finished 4-1 with a 4.83 ERA after his 8th and 9th hits allowed were homers to Cano and Healy to chase him in the sixth inning. This made the A's the first team to be eliminated from their divisional race. Despite a 2-run homer by Ohtani, 2 diving catches by Upton and a complete game shutout by Richards lowering his final ERA to 1.30, the Angels needed a 5-run win/sweep to stay alive and were eliminated with a 22-32. Even if they beat the Red Sox by at least 5-runs in Games 19 and 20 they would finish 28-32, and the Red Sox, White Sox and now Mariners all have 29 wins already as the top three wild card teams.
Blog prior to Games 17 through 20 - and ERAs, records and standings updated below:

EastDiv 1Div 2Div 3Final Non-DivWLGB
New YorkBosBal 4-2TBNone31170
BostonNYYBal 5-1TB 4-2Min 4-2LA2919-2
BaltimoreNYY 2-4Bos 1-5TB 3-3OakHou2325-8
Tampa BayNYYBos 2-4Bal 3-3Chi 2-4Cle2028-11
CentralDiv 1Div 2Div 3Final Non-DivWLGB
ClevelandChW 3-3KC 4-2Min 2-4TBSea28200
ChicagoCle 3-3KC 3-3Min 5-1TB 4-2Oak2925-2
Kansas CityCle 2-4ChW 3-3MinNone2430-7
MinnesotaCle 4-2ChW 4-2KCBos 2-4, Hou  2028-8
WestDiv 1Div 2Div 3Final Non-DivWLGB
HoustonSea 4-2Oak 4-2LAA 5-1MinBal32160
SeattleHou 2-4Oak 4-2LAA 4-2Cle2925-6
OaklandHou 2-4Sea 2-4LAA 3-3BalChi2424-8
Los AngelesHou 1-5Sea 2-4Oak 3-3Bos2232-13

As we break into AL Divisional Play, we set up this checklist to make sure each team plays each of the remaining three teams in their division. The Yankees and Royals have not played any of the three remaining teams in their division, so their next three series will each be against a divisional foe.

For each team, look for their opponent in Bold for their next series (Series 8, to take the team on the top line, the New York Yankees, their next opponent is "Bal" or Baltimore).

Once that 6-game record is noted, their next series will be the opponent in italics (Series 9, for New York their opponent after Baltimore is Boston).

Their final series of the season will be with their underlined opponent (Final Series 10, for New York Tampa Bay is the final series and thus underlined).

Updated Standings Below: With just games 17, 18, 19 and 20 left before the playoffs, every team that qualified to play the final six games is mathematically alive. The longest shot is the Los Angeles Angels, who are 12 games behind the Houston Astros meaning the Angels would need to win all four games by at least 5 runs to get credit for a 12-0 mark, and the Astros would have to lose all four of their remaining games by at least five runs for an 0-12 mark in order to have both team finish 32-28.

The following is a list of the 15th through 20th game for each team with their starting pitchers and his Won-Loss Record and ERA in Statis-Pro. Team team's are listed alphabetically. Their starting pitcher is listed to the right with their win-loss record and ERA coming into the game. Once the game is played, the number of "Runs Scored" (RS) and then if they are credited for 0, 1, 2 or 3 wins for the game (5-run or more win is a 3-game sweep).

The opponent is then listed and the runs allowed to them and then whether the team received 0, 1, 2 or 3 losses under "L." As games are played, those numbers are filled in and the records above are adjusted until Game 20 is over and teams are in the playoffs.

Keuchel kept his Cy Young hopes alive with a 1-0 win over fellow All-Star Leake to improve to 9-3, 1.40 ERA going into his final start. Berrios (MN) finished the season 45 with a 3.72 ERA and Skaggs from LAA finished 4-11 with a 7.07 ERA. The aces all throw for the last time in their teams Game 17 and if Kluber shuts down Tampa Bay his 9-3, 0.70 ERA then he will wrap up the Cy Young. However, if he were to struggle, then either the Red Sox Sale (10-2, 1.40 ERA) or Keuchel (9-3, 1.40 ERA) would be the most likely to take the Cy Young with a strong showing against the Yankees or Twins, respectively.

Bold = Season Final Record and ERA. Not bold indicates stats are still before the final start.

Game 17RSWOpponentRALStarting PitcherWLERA
BaltimoreOaklandCashner, Baltimore72 1.86
BostonNew YorkSale, Boston1021.40
Chicago 3Kansas City1Giolito, Chicago962.23
ClevelandTampa BayKluber, Cleveland930.70
HoustonMinnesotaKeuchel, Houston931.40
Kansas City1Chicago3Duffy, Kansas City1052.23
Los Angeles2Seattle7Ohtani, Los Angeles4114.83
MinnesotaHoustonSantana, Minnesota753.95
New YorkBostonSeverino, New York842.09
BaltimoreMengden, Oakland573.02
Seattle7Los Angeles2Leake Sea, Seattle841.40
Tampa BayClevelandFaria, Tampa Bay487.44
Game 18RSWOpponentRALStarting PitcherWLERA
BaltimoreOaklandCobb, Baltimore574.65
BostonNew YorkPrice, Boston572.33
Chicago4Kansas City7Lopez, Chicago933.25
ClevelandTampa BayClevenger, Cleveland932.09
HoustonMinnesotaVerlander, Houston931.86
Kansas City7Chicago4Junis, Kansas City484.42
Los AngelesSeattleRichards, Los Angeles871.30
MinnesotaHoustonBarrios, Minnesota124.65
New YorkBostonHapp, Toronto-NYY455.27
OaklandBaltimoreManaea, Oakland664.19
SeattleLos AngelesPaxton, Seattle962.98
Tampa BayClevelandStanek, Tampa Bay213.72
Game 19RSWOpponentRALStarting PitcherWLERA
BaltimoreHoustonRamirez, Baltimore12 4.65
BostonLos AngelesPomeranz, Boston21 6.51
ChicagoOaklandShields, Chicago2106.51
ClevelandSeattleCarrasco, Cleveland486.28
HoustonBaltimoreMorton, Houston753.02
Kansas CityMinnesotaKeller, Kansas City12 1.86
Los AngelesBostonMeyer, Los Angeles debut
MinnesotaKansas CityOdiorizzi, Minnesota27 8.06
New YorkTampa BaySabathia, New York722.48
OaklandChicagoGraveman, Oakland 6 6 4.42
SeattleClevelandHernandez, Seattle842.09
Tampa BayNew YorkSnell, Tampa Bay365.27
Game 20RSWOpponentRALStarting PitcherWLERA
BaltimoreHoustonBundy, Baltimore573.72
BostonLos AngelesEovaldi, TB-Boston debut
ChicagoOaklandSantiago, Chicago543.72
ClevelandSeattleBauer, Cleveland664.42
HoustonBaltimoreCole, Houston753.72
Kansas CityMinnesotaFillmyer, Kansas City12 6.51
Los AngelesBostonShoemaker, Los Angeles754.88
MinnesotaKansas CityGibson, Minnesota574.65
New YorkTampa BayLynn, Min-NYY212.79
OaklandChicagoTriggs, Oakland753.02
SeattleClevelandLeBlanc, Seattle125.58
Tampa BayNew YorkCastillo, Tampa Bay212.79

Season Ends (possible tie-breaking extra game):

1. Tie-breaker for home advantage or for team that gets buy in case of a 3-team tie is as follows; a) head-to-head, b) if same division then division record, c) run differential.

2. Tie-breaker only played if one team tied must miss the playoffs. The one game played is considered an extra regular season game and only counts as one game (our other AL games count as a 3-game series with 5-run wins counted as a sweep and other wins as 2 games to 1.

3. For the home advantage in the wild-card game or to determine who wins the division if the 2nd place team makes it as a wildcard, or 5-game playoff series does not require an extra game, simply use the tie-breaker in 1 above for home advantage and no tie-breaker game is played.

Playoffs - Wild Card

2nd Wild Card visits 1st Wild Card in a one-game playoff

Playoffs - Divisional Series

Top team vs. Wild Card winner best of 5. Team with the best record in the league hosts the wild card winning in Games 1, 2 and if necessary Game 5 in a best of five series, with the Wild Card team hosting Games 3 and if necessary 4. Because of the disadvantage of having to use their ace in the wild card game, the wild card team would likely end up with their second best starting pitcher in Games 1 and 5, while the 1st place team would likely get their top pitcher in those two games.

Other 2 divisional winners. The Divisional Winner with the 2nd best record hosts Games 1, 2 and if necessary 5 against the Divisional Winner with the worst of the three records.

Playoffs - League Championship Series

If the team with the top record in the league defeats the Wild Card team in the Divisional Series then they host Games 1, 2 and if necessary 6 and 7 against the other Divisional Series winner. If the Wild Card team defeats the team with the best record in the Divisional Series, then they host games 3, 4 and 5 against the other Divisional Winner.

World Series

The winner of the Championship Series will host Games 3, 4 and if necessary 5 of the World Series since the NL won the season series with the AL.

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