Thursday, November 28, 2019

East Region All-Time March Madness: Ewing Fouls Out in Big East Brawl Rematch with Nova



Seton Hall's minor upset of St. John's, and West Virginia's upset of Marquette eliminated two superstar legends - Chris Mullin and Dwyane Wade. The favorites won the other six gamesto date.

The 2nd Round in the East includes 9 ACC teams, 6 Big East teams and top-seeded Kentucky 1996 from the SEC.

Here is the master list of all 96 teams and predictions. Click on the EastWest, Midwest and South bracket to follow the results in each, or click on the Value Add Basketball Game instructions to get the free game and play for yourself. Click here for the google sheet with player cards for all 96 teams. Click here for box scores to all tournament games.

PDFs of player cards appear below (we cleaned up the typos in years 12/5/2019):


Alabama 1977 to Duke 2010 updated 12/15/2019

Florida 2006 to Iowa 2001 updated 12/15/2019

Kansas 1957 to LSU 2006 updated 12/15/2019 AND Loyola 1963 Team Corrected

Marquette 1977 to Notre Dame 1970 updated 12/16/2019

Ohio State 1960 to Purdue 2018 updated 12/16/2019

San Diego State 2011 to Texas Southern (UTEP) 1966 updated 12/16/2019

UCLA 1972 to Wyoming 1943 updated 12/15/2019 (note includes UNC 1982, while "North Carolina" 2005 is in Marquette to Notre Dame link above)

Table key: dunks = number of uncontested scores out of 36 rolls from 11-36, Stop Dunks = number added (bad) or subtracted (good) from opponents dunk range, Pred Off = average score resulting from team playing cards in 66 possession Value Add Basketball Games against all top 100 teams in history, Pred Def = average points cards would allow in the those games, Net = difference between those two which is used as the teams rating for seeding or knowing who is favored in a given game by how many points (difference between two net scores). E.g. Arizona's 14.2 indicates it would average defeating LSU (5.5) by 8.7 points if they played hundreds of times.  Click here for all box scores from tournament games.


SeedEast RegionYearConferenceDunksStop DunksPred OffPred DefNet
24Butler2011Horizon4167.561.95.6
9Duke2011ACC12-175.060.814.2
10Duke1992ACC5-175.761.813.9
11Georgetown1984Big East0-571.958.613.3
14Georgia Tech2004ACC9-172.159.812.3
1Kentucky1996SEC (East)11079.660.718.9
13Marquette2003CUSA9174.662.212.4
6Maryland2002ACC13279.863.216.6
23Navy1986CAA0272.065.36.7
2North Carolina St.1974ACC14-180.862.318.5
17Pittsburgh2009Big East4071.961.110.8
21Princeton1965Ivy11369.461.18.3
18Seton Hall1989Big East1-470.960.110.8
15St. John's1985Big East3-273.861.712.1
12Syracuse1987Big East4074.361.712.6
8Uconn1999Big East7-971.655.316.3
7UNC2005ACC15278.962.416.5
22Villanova1985Big East0070.862.58.3
4Villanova2018Big East8-476.659.217.4
5Virginia1981ACC0-576.459.716.7
3Virginia2019ACC3-1068.951.517.4
19Wake Forest2005ACC14377.466.710.7
16Wake Forest1996ACC0-867.956.611.3
20West Virginia2011Big East7-468.158.89.3

The seeding in the East gave us one actual rematch of a championship Butler missed a national title by one shot vs. Duke in 2011, Duke is an 8-point favorite in the rematch for a chance to advance and play UConn 1999, the No. 8 seed that beat another great Duke team for a national title.

However, we started with perhaps the two biggest heart break franchises of the past several decades - Pitt and Wake Forest - the closest match-up as the #16 and $17 seeds with Wake Forest 1996 a bare 0.5 points favorite against 2009 Pitt (11.3 to 10.8 net points in simulations above).

It is amazing that with all of the incredible players and teams these two schools produced while playing in the rugged ACC and Big East - neither team made a Final 4 in the past 35 years as each seemed to just keep hitting that one bad match-up year after year (Pitt hitting Dwyane Wade and eventual runner-up Butler early in two tournaments). Our dice game was between the only team from each school to even make the Elite 8 in those 35 years - as Tim Duncan took Wake to their third Sweet 16 in four years but only Elite 8 performance, and Sam Young and perhaps the greatest offensive rebounder in decades - DeJuan Blair - took Pitt to their 5th Sweet 16 in 9 years but only Elite 8. Wake did claim the ACC tournament title that year.

Tim Duncan grabbed an incredible 12 first half rebounds to lead Wake to a 36-24 lead before Blair even entered the game. (in the game, Duncan can play all 44 possessions, but Blair only 33 so we use him the last 33). Blair scored his second trip down the court and then he and Young took over for a long stretch to go from down 33-45 (25 possessions left) to a 48-47 lead when Duncan (one of the greatest shot blockers in the game) actually rejected Blair but Jermaine Dixon grabbed the offensive rebound to score and cap the 15-2 run.

With only two possessions left for each team (Pitt first, then Wake second as the home team), Pitt came down the court trailing only 59-60 when Wake's Jerry Braswell stole the ball and had the only fast break attempt of the game in the slugfest between two of the greatest defensive teams in the game. Baswell missed on the break, but Sean Allen grabbed the rebound and was fouled - hitting one of two free throws to make it 61-59.

Pitt worked it to Young, who drained a two for his 19th point to tie the game at 61-61. Young then played hero at the other end, rejecting Duncan's potential game-winning shot, only to have Allen grabbed the offensive rebound for the second trip in a row and score a lay-up to give Wake the 63-61 win.

Ironically I looked up the 1996 tournament after the game, and Wake beat Louisville by a similar 60-59 low scoring game, and Duncan has the same 13 rebounds in that game (but 27 points as opposed to just 10 in our dice game) and Allen grabbed the winning rebound in the final seconds to preserve the win - though that was on the defensive side (video here). In a coincidence, the 1996 Wake team now plays actual team that beat them in the Elite 8 that year - the 1996 Kentucky team that is the #1 seed in the East and actually destroyed Wake 83-63 in the real game. The simulation table above indicates Kentucky is just 8 points better than Wake, so an upset is possible, and that Wake team is not as strong as the top two No. 1 seeds, the undefeated 1976 Indiana and 1972 UCLA teams.

#16 Wake Forest (1996) 63, #17 Pitt (2009) 61



#17 Pitt (2009)PtsRebStlsBlksFoulsPossessions Played
Levance Fields6310542-12 (1, Fouled out)
Jermaine Dixon3210239, 24-1 (2)
Tyrell Biggs8900128-1 (3)
Sam Young19602142-1 (4)
DeJuan Blair121012133-1 (5)
Ashton Gibbs2100144-43 (1)
Nasir Robinson4201144-40 (2), after FO 12-1 (1)
Gilbert Brown3300144-29 (3)
Gary McGhee2200144-43 (4)
Brad Wanamaker2300144-34 (5)
61413515
#16 Wake Forest (1996)PtsRebStlsBlksFoulsPossessions Played
Tony Rutland19720343-1 (1)
Jerry Braswell4420326-1 (2)
Rusty LaRue4400441-1 (3)
Tim Duncan101312444-1 (4)
Sean Allen8501228-1 (5)
Armond Wilson5100144 (1), 30-27 (2)
Steven Goolsby5100244-31 (2)
Joseph Amonett2100144-42 (3)
Antonio Jackson2100139-34 (5)
William Stringfellow4200144-40 (5)
63395322

#10 Duke (1992) 77, #23 Navy (1986) 61


The great David Robinson's game high 10 rebounds helped Navy out rebound Duke 33-29 despite Missing many more shots - but he and Christian Laettner held each other in check scoring.

Laettner simply had two much support from Bobby Hurley, who pressured Navy into 16 turnovers while running a Duke offense that only turned it over 9 times, and Grant Hill. And people forget Thomas Hill, the leading scorer as those four starters all scored double figures, was also 3rd team all-acc and a star and picked on weaker Navy defenders while Robinson contained Laettner (and vice versa).

Duke now gets their dreaded rival UNC (the 2005 national champs) in the #7 vs #10 game, with the winner of that game potentially getting the No. 2 sees - Michael Jordan's 1982 team. To show the different ways I track games, I did this running score free hand in a pad (the player stats were still kept on the printed score sheets. Here is a photo to give you multiple options.



#12 Syracuse (1987) 79, #21 Princeton 62


Before he was a popular US Senator and Presidential candidate, Bill Bradley produced a 1965 Ivy League season that resulted in an incredible card. He averaged 30.5 ppg with an incredible ability to draw fouls (9-13 on 20-sided die) and then hit 90% of his free throws (1-18 on 20-sided die).

This from a great shot blocker and rebounder, and guard Ken Shank hit more that 60% of his shots to get 16.8 per game.

Unfortunately Princeton's team defense (+13 on dunks opponents's dunk range) was the worst in of the 96 great teams. This is a calibrated measurement of defense adjusted for level if competition - as is the dunk range on offense.

The disparity gave Syracuse's 1987 champs open lanes to the basket for layups and dunks on rolls of 51-66 - one third of offensive rolls.

Despite Bradley's 13 points and 8 rebounds and shank's 18 points Syracuse led by 20 down the stretch and won 79-62 to advance to face Ralph Sampson and the 1981 UVa team.

The balanced attack of Tony Seikaly (14 points, 8 rebounds), Greg Monroe (14, 4), Derrick Coleman (8, 5, 2 steals and a block), and Sherman Douglas were just too much.

#18 Seton Hall (1989) 76, #15 St. John's (1985) 75

The three-point line was standardized in college basketball between the Final Four's featuring St. John's in 1985 and Seton Hall in 1989, and Andrew Gaze was one of the best in the country in hitting 94 of them at a great 43 percent clip. Gaze hit four en route to 24 points in this game, enabling the Pirates to edge past Chris Mullin 's 16 points and Walter Berry's 12 point, 12 rebound double double.

St. John's held the Pirates other sharp shooter, John Morton, without a three-pointer, but he hit two free throws with 1:15 to go to give Seton Hall a 74-73 lead, and he scored again to make it 76-73 with 37 seconds left and St. John's could not get a three-pointer off late.

#11 Georgetown (1984) 72, #22 Villanova (1985) 65

Ed Pinckney's game highs in points (18) and rebounds (9) and drawing the fifth foul on Patrick Ewing with 5:29 (9 possessions) to play gave the 1985 Villanova a chance to repeat their real life championship upset of Big East rival Georgetown.

This however was the 1984 Hoyas team that also won the title (vs Houston) and was too much in the first game I've played that included 40 fouls and three foul outs. The Hoyas defensive cards are awesome, but Reggie Williams and Ewing have such high foul range that they could foul out in any game. However, they draw fouls too, and they helped the Hoyas win the boards 39 to 29 and draw 22 fouls with Dwayne McClain and Harold Pressley fouling out for Nova.

This was also the first game I played with no 3-pointers since neither team played with the arc, so the 3-pointers made ranges, which are estimated for early players anyway, simply counted as 2-pointers. Ewing's 13 points and 8 rebounds were team highs for the balanced Hoyas.

The Hoyas would not need to travel far for their second round game, as they take on the 2002 national champs from up the road at Maryland.

One other reason I am playing each team is to spot errors and I realized before the game that my program had deleted the great Patrick Ewing because it found another Patrick Ewing from Georgetown - his son on the 2007 team. However, here is his great card and I added the image by the link to the teams.









#20 West Virginia (2010) 77, #13 Marquette (2003) 74


West Virginia's overpowering offensive rebounding found the weak spot in Marquette's defense, and drawing the 5th foul on Dwyane Wade was just enough for the win. Details are in this Cracked Sidewalks blog.

#9 Duke (2010) 69* #24 Butler (2010) 57

The only rematch of the 96-team tournament featured the 2010 national championship. This time heavily favored Duke did not need to wait to see if Gordon Hayward's last second heave would fall - dominating to advance and play 1999 UConn.


#14 Georgia Tech (2004) 82, #19 Wake Forest (2005) 71

Jarrett Jack wrapped up the East first round with an 18-point, 5 steal game that propelled the Yellow Jackets past Chris Paul and Wake Forest. They play last year's.champs from UVa next.


This wraps up 1st round action in the East.

Wednesday, November 27, 2019

Pistol Pete's Offense vs. UVa 2019 or Jordan's Defense; 96 Great Teams Calculated for Game

After using modern tempo-free stats to create player cards for 48 great 21st century teams, the focus turned to estimated the tempo played by 20th century teams to create accurate cards for Value Add Basketball Game. Click here for playing cards for the 48 great 20th century teams.

The defenses of Michael Jordan's 1982 UNC title team (average score 67-55) and last year's UVa champions (71-56) were obviously much better than the defense of Pistol Pete Maravich's 1970 LSU team (93-89 average score). While Pistol Pete is the only player in the game to get the ball half the time he is in the game and the offense was elite, based on the number of shots taken we know LSU went up and down the court many more than the "average" 66 trips for each team in VABG and the team's LSU faced that year were not nearly as good as the opponents faced by UVa and UNC.

For fellow wonks, the complicated math appears below the list of teams in the game. For everyone else, if all teams played 66 possessions in the game (rather than a clock) against the same competition in the average year, we would expect 1970 LSU's elite offense with Pistol Pete to average a 80-74 win. That would give them a better offense than 1982 UNC or 2019 UVa, but playing the same competition in the same era we would expect those two to average winning by 73-55 and 71-56 respectively.

In the game, after each team's players ability to steal, block shots, avoid fouling and turnovers, rebound and hit various shots after getting open for three-pointers, two-pointers, draw fouls, and hit each or drawing fouls, a "dunk/layup" and "adj/opp. dunk layup" range is established for the whole team to adjust for tempo and strength of schedule. In early years, we estimate the number of shots were three-pointers, and the number of steals and blocks - but the dunk adjustments make the cards for each team as good as they should perform in real life.

We believe the game is as accurate as you can get playing teams from various eras. However, this does NOT mean we actually believe a team from 1950 would get in a time machine and stand a chance against a modern team, any more than Babe Ruth could step into a time machine and hit modern sliders. However, if we treat each eras as equal, we believe the teams will perform very close to how the would over the course of a season - with the normal ups and downs from game to game that occasionally mean Evansville can beat Kentucky and Stephen F. Austin can beat Duke.

For fellow math geeks, the math is below the tables - but here is the score we would expect each team to average if all played the same competition. The first score is how many points they would average scoring, then allowing, and then the difference. The teams are grouped in six modern conferences for the game, but the final column shows the conference in which they actually played.


YearACCAdj PtsAllowedNet/66 posActual Conf
1974North Carolina State81.062.918.1ACC
1982North Carolina73.355.417.8ACC
2005North Carolina79.362.816.5ACC
2011Duke75.460.814.7ACC
1992Duke75.861.714.1ACC
2002Maryland76.362.513.8ACC
2019Virginia66.252.513.6ACC
2009Pittsburgh73.160.013.0Big East
2003Syracuse75.262.912.4Big East (West)
1981Virginia70.558.212.2ACC
2004Georgia Tech72.260.012.2ACC
1987Syracuse74.262.711.5Big East
2005Wake Forest77.166.011.1ACC
1980Louisville72.661.710.9Metro
1996Wake Forest65.454.710.7ACC
1970Notre Dame79.369.110.2Ind
YearBig 12Adj PtsAllowedNet/66 posActual Conf
1960Cincinnati81.660.920.8MVC
1968Houston79.060.918.1Ind
1957Kansas74.657.517.1Big 7
2008Kansas74.658.116.6Big 12
1946Oklahoma St76.162.214.0MVC
1982Missouri72.459.213.2Big 8
1985Oklahoma81.468.712.7Big 8
2004Oklahoma State71.559.212.3Big 12
1959West Virginia80.368.411.9Southern
2019Texas Tech66.854.911.9Big 12
2004Saint Joseph's71.860.011.8A-10 (East)
1966Texas-El Paso68.957.911.0Ind
2003Texas73.963.011.0Big 12
2016Oklahoma72.461.511.0Big 12
2008Kansas State73.163.99.2Big 12
2011West Virginia68.259.19.2Big East
YearBig EastAdj PtsAllowedNet/66 posActual Conf
2018Villanova75.960.215.7Big East
2013Louisville73.058.114.9Big East
1999Connecticut72.157.314.7Big East
2002Cincinnati72.057.614.4CUSA (American)
1984Georgetown71.457.713.7Big East
2004Connecticut73.960.413.5Big East
1985St. John's (NY)73.861.012.8Big East
1977Marquette65.954.011.9Ind
2007Georgetown67.756.411.3Big East
1989Seton Hall70.859.611.2Big East
2014Creighton72.762.110.6Big East
2003Marquette72.663.49.2CUSA (American)
1985Villanova68.960.18.8Big East
1965Princeton70.061.68.4Ivy
1945DePaul67.259.18.1Ind
2011Butler67.961.76.1Horizon
YearBig TenAdj PtsAllowedNet/66 posActual Conf
1976Indiana76.654.522.1Big Ten
1960Ohio State83.663.120.4Big Ten
1979Michigan State73.956.517.4Big Ten
1963Loyola (IL)81.864.916.9Ind
1969Purdue82.665.716.8Big Ten
1989Michigan76.560.915.7Big Ten
2015Wisconsin70.956.714.2Big Ten
2005Illinois71.958.213.7Big Ten
2018Purdue72.759.113.6Big Ten
2007Ohio State71.659.012.6Big Ten
2013Michigan73.460.812.6Big Ten
2002Indiana68.057.011.0Big Ten
1954La Salle72.261.311.0Ind
2009Michigan State71.260.510.7Big Ten
1979Indiana State75.164.510.7MVC
2002Iowa69.162.66.5Big Ten
YearPac-12Adj PtsAllowedNet/66 posActual Conf
1972UCLA81.756.824.9Pac-8
1991Nevada-Las Vegas79.761.418.3Big West
2008Memphis73.759.214.5CUSA
2015Arizona72.758.714.0Pac-12
1956San Francisco68.454.613.9CBA
2017Gonzaga71.457.813.6WCC
1997Arizona76.963.413.5Pac-10
1959University of California68.055.113.0PCC
1958Seattle78.567.011.4Ind
2006UCLA67.556.710.8Pac-10
2017Oregon69.258.510.7Pac-12
2011San Diego State68.057.610.4MWC
1998Utah66.256.59.7WAC (Mountain)
1943Wyoming75.866.29.6MSAC
2013Wichita State68.159.98.2MVC
2018Loyola (IL)64.659.65.0MVC
YearSECAdj PtsAllowedNet/66 posActual Conf
1996Kentucky80.961.019.9SEC (East)
2012Kentucky74.158.915.2SEC
1994Arkansas77.663.614.1SEC (West)
2006Florida73.560.712.7SEC (East)
2006Louisiana State71.260.211.0SEC (West)
1977Tennessee76.065.210.8SEC
2019Auburn71.560.910.6SEC
1977Alabama73.963.610.3SEC
1984Auburn73.864.09.8SEC
2017South Carolina66.457.98.5SEC
2008Davidson70.462.48.0Southern (South)
1982Georgia70.662.68.0SEC
2006George Mason66.659.37.4CAA
1986Navy69.762.96.8CAA
1970Louisiana State79.774.15.6SEC
2011Virginia Commonwealth68.664.44.2CAA

Notes on the math:

Tempo Free Stats - When we calculated the 21st Century cards, we used the tempo free team ratings and stats at www.kenpom.com.

However, we switched to the incredible Simple Ratings System (SRS) at basketball reference for development of the 20th century player cards and then updated the other cards to make the all one system.

We started with the offensive and defensive ratings from SRS, however we noticed rules changes such as freedom of movement allowed the better teams in modern eras and other times to distance themselves by greater margins that teams in more "grind it out" eras.

To address this, we adjusted the Offensive SRS so that the Net Average each year for the 10th best team would be +16.6.

We did not allow any team who did not win the title (e.g. 1991 UNLV) to have a net rating higher than +25.0, so a few were adjusted down a couple of points but still very strong.

On the flip side we improved a couple of elite championship teams by a couple of points - including the undefeated 1976 Indiana champions.

However the vast majority of teams have the exact calculation that also results in the 10th best team the season they played at +16.6.

These numbers are then converted back to www.kenpom.com equivalent ratings based on adding the adjusted SRS Offensive number to 100 to get the estimated offensive efficiency rating, and subtracting the adjusted SRS Defensive number from 100 to get the estimated defensive efficiency rating - even for the modern teams where the calculated number was used rather than the www.kenpom.com number to adjust for eras.

The numbers that appear above are that number multiplied by .66, to calculate the number of points the team would score in a 66 possession Value Add basketball game (the game actually assumes a 20-20 tie after 22 possessions, and then dice are rolled to play out the final 44 possessions of each game.

The best defensive teams do not necessarily have the best "Adj opp Dunk/layup" range. If a team were to have a great rating, but also have a very high number of dice rolls resulted in steals, blocked shots and defensive rebounds, then all of those things might take away so many points from the opponents that the actual "Adj opp Dunk/layup" range would need to ADD points.

However, normally the best defenses have the best dunk range - making the cards accurate against an average defense in an average era.

A "Adj opp Dunk/layup" of -2 for a team would mean that 2 numbers were taken off the numbers on the opponent's "dunk/lay-up" range.

Likewise, the best offensive teams do not necessarily get the highest dunk range. A team that avoided turning the ball over, drew a lot of fouls, dominated offensive rebounds, and hit a high percentage of shots could calculate as scoring so many points that their actual dunk range was lower, perhaps 51-51 instead of the average 51-53.

However, normally the best offenses have the best dunk range - making the cards accurate against an average defense in an average era.

If an offense's dunk range is 11-57,and the opposing defense's adj opp dunk range is -3, then the dunk range for the game would be 11-54.

However, if at least one of the teams calculated dunk range is higher than 51-56, or lower than 51-50, then it works best to adjust both team ranges the same number.

For example, if one team's calculated dunk range was 51-64 and one was 51-61, you could lower the ranges to 51-53 and 51-50.

Sunday, November 24, 2019

All-Time Great 20th Centuries Team Picked for Value Add Basketball Game

In addition to the all-time teams of the 21st Century in the Value Add Basketball Game, cards will be released for the all-time teams of the 20th Century. Factors considered were how far teams went in the post season as well as if they featured one of the top 50 players of all time according to either Grantland, Bleacher Reports or ESPN. Each school could only have one team - the toughest choices being Bill Walton's best UCLA team being slightly better than Lew Alcindor's best UCLA team, even though Alcindor was slightly better than Walton as the best player in the history of college basketball.


YrACCWLFinishTop 50 All-Time or Best PlayerTop 50 All-Time?
74NC State301ChampionDavid Thompson4
92Duke342ChampionLaettner & Hurley8 & 42
82UNC322Champion Jordan & Worthy12 & 50
81Virginia294Final FourRalph Sampson5
80Louisville333ChampionDarrell Griffith27
96Wake Forest266Elite 8Tim Duncan22
87Syracuse317Runner upRony SeikalyNBA9
70Notre Dame218Peak AP No. 6Austin Carr14
ConfBig 12WLFinishTop 50 All-Time or Best PlayerTop 50 All-Time?
46Oklahoma St312ChampionBob Kurland23
57Kansas243Runner upWilt Chamberlain6
60Cincinnati282NCAA 3rd placeOscar Robertson2
68Houston312Final FourElvin Hayes6
66UTEP281ChampionDave LattinNBA10
82Missouri274Peaked AP 1Steve StipanovichNBA2
85Oklahoma316Elite 8Wayman Tisdale21
59West Virginia265Runner upJerry West7
ConfBig EastWLFinishTop 50 All-Time or Best PlayerTop 50 All-Time?
99Connecticut342ChampionRichard HamiltonAll-A, NBA3
84Georgetown343ChampionPatrick Ewing & Michael Graham15&40
85St. John's314Final FourWalter Berry & Chris Mullin6 & 40
77Marquette257ChampionButch Lee30
85Villanova2510ChampionEd PinckneyNBA10
89Seton Hall317Runner upJohn MortonNBA25
65Princeton236NCAA 3rd placeBill Bradley8
45DePaul213Won NITGeorge Mikan24
ConfBig TenWLFinishTop 50 All-Time or Best PlayerTop 50 All-Time?
76Indiana320ChampionScott May35
60Ohio State253ChampionJerry Lucas13
79Michigan State266ChampionMagic Johnson11
89Michigan307ChampionGlen Rice23
69Purdue235Runner upRick Mount32
63Loyola292ChampionJerry HarnessAll-A
54La Salle264ChampionTom Gola15
79Indiana State331Runner upLarry Bird8
ConfPac 12WLFinishTop 50 All-Time or Best PlayerTop 50 All-Time?
72UCLA300ChampionBill Walton3
91UNLV341Final 4L. Johnson & Augmon29 & 47
97Arizona259ChampionMike BibbyAll-A, NBA2
56San Francisco290ChampionBill Russell4
98Utah304Runner upAndre MillerAll-A, NBA8
59California254ChampionDarrall ImhoffAll-A, NBA8
58Seattle236Runner upElgin Baylor21
43Wyoming312ChampionKen SailorsInv. Jumper
ConfSECWLFinishTop 50 All-Time or Best PlayerTop 50 All-Time?
96Kentucky342ChampionTony DelkAll-A, NBA16
94Arkansas313ChampionCorliss WilliamsonNBA13
77Tennessee226Peaked AP 7thBernard KingAll-A, NBA7
77Alabama256Peak AP No. 3Reggie KingNBA18
86Navy305Peak AP 17David Robinson23
84Auburn2011Peak AP No. 16Charles BarkleyNBA5
82Georgia1912NIT SemisDominique WilkinsNBA3
70LSU2210NIT SemisPete Maravich2




As with the 21st Century teams, eight teams were selected loosely corresponding to the top 6 conferences over the past four decades - the ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Pac-12 and SEC, regardless of their actual conference when they played. If the team featured a player in one of the top 50 all-time lists, that player is listed and his highest all-time ranking is listed in the final column (e.g. NC State is listed first, and David Thompson is noted as the 4th greatest player ever which is his Grantland rating, while Michael Jordan's top rating came from the Bleacher Report.

 Going through the ACC as an example: The teams are listed in my perception of who will have the strongest player cards in the game to the weakest. While many are close, I perceive NC State's 30-1 national champion as the strongest ACC team of all time, though Duke's 34-2 champion and Jordan's 32-2 champs are very close. For that matter, even though Ralph Sampson's 1981 team was eliminated in the Final Four the Sampson vs. Jordan match-ups could go either way, and the 1980 Louisville national champions could certainly defeat any of those on a given day.

Rony Seikaly is the only ACC team with no all-time Top 50 great, so in his case "NBA9" means he as the 9th pick in the NBA draft. While I've pulled stats for players from all these teams, they are from before the tempo free stats of the 21st Century, so it will take some work to produce the cards. We can assume that LSU, who averaged winning 93-89 with Pistol Pete, played at a much higher tempo then DePaul used when working the ball into George Mikan and having him reject shots at the other end of the court.

Monday, November 18, 2019

All-Time Great Basketball Standings


Update: We are basically playing conference games until each team has two losses. In Big 12 play Kansas has dominated, but Texas defeated St. Joe's 70-53 behind a 40-29 lead in rebounding to improve to 2-1. 

In the ACC, UVa defeated 2010 Duke 88-80 to be the only one loss team in the ACC (3-1) to trail only Carmelo Anthony's 2003 Syracuse - which rallied to beat 2005 UNC. Here are the standing for all 6 conferences. The google sheet with all results to date is here, and these instructions on how to play the Value Add Basketball Game continues to be my most popular.



ACC (past & present)WLPtsPtsAll
Syracuse 2003408173
Virginia 2019318572
Duke 2010228072
North Carolina 2005227465
Pittsburgh 2009126062
Georgia Tech 2004125666
Maryland 2002126575
Wake Forest 2005035886
Total Played14141st place vs. SEC 1st for SOUTH
Big 12 (A10)WLPtsPtsAll
Kansas 2008407552
Texas Tech 2019316761
St. Joe's 2004226774
Oklahoma 2016125864
Texas 2003216168
Oklahoma St. 2004026774
West Virginia 2010026776
K-State 2008026373
Total Played13131st place vs. Pac 12 1st for WEST
Big East (past & present)WLPtsPtsAll
Connecticut 2004317360
Villanova 2018217469
Marquette 2003226972
Louisville 2013217165
Georgetown 2007117671
Cincinnati 2002117175
Creighton 2014027285
Butler 2010025480
Total Played1111
1st place vs. play-in for EAST
Big TenWLPtsPtsAll
Purdue 2018307568
Illinois 2005217474
Wisconsin 2015116863
Michigan 2013117270
Michigan St. 2009117474
Iowa 2002116368
Indiana 2002027276
Ohio St. 2007027080
Total Played991st place vs. play-in for MIDWEST
Pac 12 (WCC, MVC, CUSA)WLPtsPtsAll
Gonzaga 2017217257
Oregon 2017217570
Arizona 2015116964
San Diego St. 2011117372
Wichita St. 2013116969
Memphis 2008116068
UCLA 2006115971
Loyola-Chicago 2018025873
Total Played991st place v. Big 12 Champ for WEST
SEC (Colonial)WLPtsPtsAll
Auburn 2019506961
Kentucky 2012317365
South Carolina 2017116965
Florida 2006226666
Davidson 2008126565
George Mason 2006026369
VCU 2011025569
LSU 2006025776
Total Played12121st place v. ACC Champ for South


Each team scheduled for a 7-game schedule against the rest of the conference, then the top two teams in each conference going to a tournament as well as the third and fourth place ACC teams. 

However, the six first place teams all go straight to the Elite 8, while the others who make the tournament will need to win two games to make the Elite 8. All details are in this google sheet.

Yes, I want to calculate cards for Larry vs Magic and all the other 20th Century greats, but I need to figure out new formulas since these cards are based on modern tempo free stats.

Saturday, November 16, 2019

Value Add Basketball Game - Detailed Instructions

1 of 3 Options for Playing the Value Add Basketball Game


The main instructions with everything you need to play the game are always here, and ThE following detailed instructions are one of three options for following the directions to play the Value Add Basketball Game. The most popular instructions are these Quick Start instructions used by more than 30,000 as of April 2020. If you use google docs, you can click here to access the combined instructions that contain both the Quick Start instructions and the detailed instructions in this document - and it is much easier to find specific items because the pages are numbered to correspond with the numbers on the Table of Contents below. However, if you do not (or prefer not to) use Google Docs then this blog provides all the same detailed instructions not in the Quick Start instructions to walk through the entire set-up of the game and find advanced rules and clarifications by looking down the Table of Contents for the info you want - then searching for those words in the document.

Table of Contents: Advanced Rules, Instructions      5
What you need to start playing           8
4 Dice (one 20-sided, one 8-sided)     8
Scoresheet      8
Print player cards for 2 teams            8
Setting up the Game   9
Choose 5 starters for each team        9
Choose the Point Guard and place at the top of the 5 cards 9
Determine which starter should play SG, SF, PF and C       9
Choosing your shooting guard – SG (2)         10
Choosing your forwards – SF (3) and PF (4) 10
Choose your center – C (5)    10
Setting up the Scoresheet      10
Write the starters in the top 5 spots of the scoresheet           10
Choose when (and if) to use reserves            10
.Option 1 (Simple) – Use starters for the whole game           11
Option 2 (Basic) – Play reserves for the 1st 7 possessions (44 to 38)          11
Option 3 (Advanced) – Rotate Players to Reflect Normal Play Time           12
Using the Score Sheet to track the Game     13
Write in both teams and their dunk ranges     13
Determine dunk range from no dunk range (51-50) to 51-56            14
If Below 50-51, the Dunk Range Becomes a Stop Range    14
Tracking player stats (top of score sheet)      14
Tracking the running score starting at 20-20 (bottom of score sheet)           15
Basic result ending by adding 0, 1, 2 or 3 (or more) to previous score          15
Keeping track of an extended possession      15
Recording the last 9 possessions above the diagonal line     16
Rolling the dice to determine the result of each possession  17
Read the 8-sided die to see which player gets ball.   17
Each roll can either go to the corresponding position (1-5) or to various other positions in different circumstances on a 6, 7 or 8. 17
Rolls of 1-5 go to the corresponding position and his defender         17
Rolls of 6, 7 or 8          17
Player grabs offensive rebound and chooses to try for a stick back basket 18
In most cases, player with 6, 7 or 8 on card gets ball 18
Different Defensive Players on Rolls of 6, 7 or 8 or changing defenders     20
Defense chooses to switch defenders           20
Roll of 31 or 32 rolled for possible steal or blocked shot of any player          20
IMPORTANT - Rolls on 6, 7, 8 are “Team” defense for Steals or Blocks     21
Read 11-66 Dice Roll 22
Look at Offensive Card on rolls of 41-16       22
Look at Defender’s card on 11-36 roll for steal, block or foul            22
Read the 20-sided die (if no result on 11-66 dice roll)            25
20-sided roll falls in “made 3-pt shot”  25
20-sided roll falls in “made 2-pt shot”  26
Fouled, roll 20-sided for free throws   26
Missed 3-pointer         26
Missed 2-pointer         26
Roll of 20 on the 20-sided die 27
Possible rolls if possession is still alive AFTER the 4-dice roll           27
Times in which fewer than all four dice are rolled      28
ADVANCED GAME OPTION - Roll only 3 dice (skip 20-sided) to intentionally foul            28
ADVANCED GAME OPTION – Roll 8-sided die first, then others    28
Roll 20-sided and one 6-sided die for Rebound Chart           29
20-sided die determines which player has first chance at rebound   29
6-sided die determines if the player gets the rebound            29
Offensive Options after Grabbing Offensive Rebounds        30
ADVANCED RULE – Home Court Advantage          31
36 when away team has the ball is a turnover rather than a foul       31
66 when home team has ball, false foul called on defender  31

What you need to start playing

4 Dice (one 20-sided, one 8-sided)

The only purchase necessary to play the Value Add Basketball Game (VABG) is one 8-sided die (yellow in Addendum 3), two 6-sided die of different colors (in photo red is the "10" column and  white is the "1" column for a roll of "32"), and a 20-sided die (green in photo).

Scoresheet

Click on the scoresheet in Addendum 4 and print out copies for each game you want to play.

Print player cards for 2 teams

In addition to the links above, we maintain any updates on new teams on the website at to https://tinyurl.com/rn8r5nd. play a game right now.

Setting up the Game

Once you have printed out the score sheet and player cards and have the four dice, you are ready to set up for a game. You can also review this video of setup: https://tinyurl.com/y6t4vdtp

Choose 5 starters for each team

On the Quick Start (Addendum 2, 3 and 4) we already line up the player cards from top (point guard) to bottom (center) for a sample game.

The following are the considerations for who starts; 1) on some card editions 5 players include the word “starter” or “reserve” as recommendations, while in other cases the player’s with the highest “Stamina” or the same figure represented by the number of possession played out of the 44 possessions in the game. For example, if a player has “Stamina: 37” or “Plays 37 of 44” it indicates the same thing, the player will get tired if he plays more than 37 possessions and not be effective.

Choose the Point Guard and place at the top of the 5 cards

A team with no true point guard on the court turns the ball over a lot in the game, so this should be avoided if at all possible. On different cards the letters “PG” may appear near the top in one of a couple of places, or on other cards numbers are listed near the top by the position and either a “0” or “1” means the player can play point guard. (That number is based on assists divided by defensive rebounds, so a 1 or lower is a point guard, while a 5 or higher is a center). You can use players at any position, BUT if the player in the point guard (PG) position at the top of the 5 players in the game does not at least one of those items – one or more “PG” or a 0 or 1 by the position spot then the team is playing without a point guard.

The point guards often have higher turnover ranges than other positions because they need to handle the ball so often, but if you do not use a point guard you will have many more turnovers than even a point guard with the worse possible turnover range (41-46).

Determine which starter should play SG, SF, PF and C

Once you identify your point guard for the top spot, you can choose the order of the other four starters to stack them in order. You can put the players in any order regardless of suggested positions on the card and you might even choose to play several guards and center (if you needed more steals and 3-point shots late in a game because you are trailing). The suggested positions on most set of cards are based on the assists to defensive rebound ratio, but in 2020 we went through an extensive calculation by www.kenpom.com of the positions players were actually playing in games and used that position unless we needed to move a player in order for a team to have enough possessions at each position. The following is the normal guide for making your team as strong as possible:

Choosing your shooting guard – SG (2)

The highest steal range (e.g. 11-16) are most valuable at PG and SG because guards always have the option of running fast breaks when they steal the ball. It is better to hide a low offensive or defensive rebound range (e.g. 1-1) because the guards get fewer opportunities to try for rebounds.

Choosing your forwards – SF (3) and PF (4)

The forwards are the balance between guards and the center. They can fast break on some steals (odd numbered 11, 13, 15 or 31) and get more chances at rebounds than guards but fewer chances than centers. Therefore pick your center and your guards first and the forwards should be the two players remaining.

Choose your center – C (5)

Choose the player with the best rebound ranges (e.g. 1-6) since they get the most chances at rebounds, and the steals are less important since they can never start fast breaks if they get a steal.

Setting up the Scoresheet

Write the starters in the top 5 spots of the scoresheet

In addition to stacking the five starters from top to bottom on a table, write in the five names in the top 5 spots of the scoresheet in order by the positions listed.

Choose when (and if) to use reserves

Once your five starters are placed in order and written on the scoresheet, you can choose when (or if) to use other cards as reserves

.Option 1 (Simple) – Use starters for the whole game

The easiest way to play the game is to simply use the five starters for the whole game as we do in our sample Quick Start game below. You may notice that the game starts with a 20-20 score with 44 possessions remaining in the game, and each player is given certain stats that are assumed to have occurred during the first 22 possessions of the game. The player starts at the start of the game must equal 20 points and 13 rebounds for each team.

The scoresheet crosses off numbers for each player including two points for each player (most important), one rebound and one steal for each starting guard and two rebounds but no steals for each forward and center. If you choose to play a game with only starters then you need to add two points and one rebound for each player – so all five starters start with four points and the guards start with two rebounds and centers and forwards with three rebounds.

At that point your scoresheet is set up and you are ready to play.

In this case, the only time a reserve would be used is if a starter accumulates 5 fouls and needs to be replaced, at which point you would pick a reserve card to put on top of that player’s card for the remainder of the game and write in that player on the scoresheet in a reserve spot, but he would not enter the game with any points or rebounds.

Option 2 (Basic) – Play reserves for the 1st 7 possessions (44 to 38)

If you use reserves it is always easier to try to have the starters FINISH the game rather than start at the 44th possession.

If you choose to use reserves but keep it simple, then put all reserves in their most logical position (making sure to have a point guard in the game) on the top of the starter’s card that corresponds, so that you can use all reserves for the first 8 possessions and then at the conclusion of the 38th possession for both teams, discard all reserves at once and play the rest of the game with the starters for both teams.

The 2020 cards were the first set in which some players have more than 10 player cards, so if a team you are using has 11 players pick which one will not play at all – normally a player with a low stamina (e.g. “Stamina: 5” or “Plays 5 of 44 possessions”).

Many teams have fewer than 10 players, in which case at least one starter would play the entire game. Generally the player(s) you choose to play the whole game and not have a reserve’s cards placed on top of his card would be the player(s) with the highest stamina (e.g. “Stamina: 44” or “Plays 44 of 44 possessions”).

Option 3 (Advanced) – Rotate Players to Reflect Normal Play Time

For the most accurate results, do not use any player for more possessions than specified by his stamina. For example, “Stamina 27” or “Plays 27 of 44” means he gets tired if he plays a 28th possession or more dice rolls are adjusted to make him less effective because he is tired.

While the dice rolls are reviewed below, the bottom line once a player is tired is that EVERY dice roll that is referred to on the player’s card is adjusted one against him. This means; 1) one is ADDED to a 20-sided die roll to make it less likely to hit a 3-pointer and more likely to miss a shot completely; 2) one is added to an 11-36 roll on defense to make him less likely to steal or block a shot but more likely to foul; 3) one is subtracted from a 41-46 roll on his card to make him more likely he will turn the ball over.

Some teams are simple to rotate, because they have one logical starting point guard with a Stamina of perhaps 40, and a logical reserve point guard with 4 or high stamina, and so you play the reserve for possessions 44, 43, 42 and 41 and then play the starting point guard from the 40th possession through the possession No. 1 (last possession at the end of the scoresheet).

On the scoresheet it will make it easier to write in small numbers or on the player cards which possessions that player will be in the game at which position since it can get more confusing with certain players entering or leaving at different times.

Some of the older all-time greats default to having all starters with stamina’s of 37 and all reserves with stamina’s of 7 since no minutes played were recorded for those teams and that is the all-time average time played by starters (keep in mind that since the game starts assuming starters and reserves each played 11 of the first 22 possessions resulting in the 20-20 starting score, the actual historical average is that the average starter plays enough minutes for 48 of 66 possessions, leaving the average reserve 18 of 66 possessions).

The 2020 cards include suggested times and positions already printed on the card to make it easier.

As you will see from those cards, the substitutions for some teams is much more comfortable, because certain reserves need to play multiple positions. For example, if the starting center had a stamina of 41 (so needed a reserve for 3 possessions) and a power forward had a 42 (so needed a reserve for 2 possessions) and a starting small forward had a 35 (so needed a reserve for 9 possessions) but the team had one reserve who was the best back-up at all three possessions and had a stamina of 14 or higher then he can be the only reserve used for those three positions. However, this two of the starters need to start in the game and then come out, and go back in as the reserve moves from position to position.

You can go in any order, but one way to rotation would be to have the reserve play the following possessions; 44-42 at center, 41-40 at power forward and finally 39-31 at small forward. In turn, the enter could still play from 41-1 like we do with starters on Option 1 and 2, but the starting power forward would play 44-42 and then 39-1, and the small forward could play 44-40 and then 30-1. It will be easier to play out the game if you write these numbers either on the player cards or on the scoresheet by the player so that you can check as you go through the game if you suddenly notice a player should already be out of the game. (The 2020 player card set includes our suggested ranges printed on the card).

By planning and following the rotation schedule most teams will not have a player run out of stamina during the game. However, there are a few exceptions; 1) occasionally a team does not have the total 220 possessions on their roster – likely because someone left the team during the season, 2) if a player fouls out you may need to bring a player in the game to finish at that position even if that player already used up his stamina, or 3) Sometimes you decide to strategically use a player who is tired either because you need a 3-point shooter or player with lots of steals near the end to catch up or in my all-time tournament. For example, used Draymond Greene’s freshman card for twice as many possessions as Coach Tom Izzo did on the 2009 Michigan State team because even tired he was a great player.

As referenced above, if a player is used (whether by choice or necessity) after his stamina is gone then all dice rolls on his card are adjusted against him. If a player is used for more than twice as many possessions as his Stamina (e.g. a player with a Stamina of 5 plays his 11th possession) then all dice rolls are adjusted by 2 against him.


Using the Score Sheet to track the Game


Once you determine your line-ups using Option 1, 2 or 3 above you are ready to begin to play and record the results on the score sheet (Addendum 1).

Write in both teams and their dunk ranges

In addition to writing the name of each team at the top of the scoresheet, it simplified the game to also write their “dunk range” at the top. The dunk range and a figure adjusting the opposing teams dunk range is the key calibration to adjust for the level of opposing offenses and defenses faced by a team. For example, if a player who faced SWAC opponents and a player who faced ACC opponents all year had the exact same stats then their cards would be exactly the same – even though the ACC player would actually be much better because he did it against tougher competition. The dunk range is a precise measurement of how much we would adjust the card to determine how well the ACC player would have done against SWAC opponents or vice versa.

The dunk range and defensive adjustment are the same for every player on the team unless you are mixing players for an All-Conference or All-Star team, so it is easier to put the figure by the team.

Determine dunk range from no dunk range (51-50) to 51-56

The average dunk range is 51-53 and the average defensive adjustment is 0 so in that case you would write a “51-53” by the team and know that anytime that roll came up on the 11-66 dice roll the player scored without checking other results (see details under dice rolls). If the same team with a 51-53 faced a new opponent with a defensive adjustment of -2 then the dunk range would be reduced to just 51.

If Below 50-51, the Dunk Range Becomes a Stop Range

If after subtracting the defensive adjustment from the dunk range the resultant number is below 50, then the Dice Chart indicates what range is in a “Stop Range” instead of a Dunk Range. For example, a good team might be able to dunk any time a roll is between 51-54. The lesser team they are playing might automatically have a STOP every time the roll is in a range of perhaps 51-52 – in which case the player automatically misses a shot and the player guarding him gets a rebound. This is all referenced on the Dice Chart.

Tracking player stats (top of score sheet)

Once the game starts you can use dashes or lines to record scores. If a player scores a 3-pointer skip two point numbers and check the third one so you will know it was a 3-pointer, skip one on a 2-pointer so you will know after it was a two pointers, and check every number on a free throw even if making two or three in one trip to the line so you will know after the game that those were free throws. We use a diagonal line for most scores, but if it is a free throw after a basket scored then we use a straight line to know it was a basket and free throw on the same play.

The other events tracked on the scoresheet provided are rebounds, steals, blocked shots and fouls by the players, and then one team line for turnovers.  We do not track missed shots on this sheet.

You can use your own player scoresheet for player stats if you like it better, but the bottom half of the scoresheet is needed for the game because it includes the information on how to determine who gets the rebound after all missed shots.

Tracking the running score starting at 20-20 (bottom of score sheet)

The most important half of the score sheet and the part you must use is the bottom half, which allows you to track the running score and gives you an immediate check on who gets the rebound after missed shots.

Basic result ending by adding 0, 1, 2 or 3 (or more) to previous score


Add 0 and repeat team’s score from previous possession. Simply repeat the number from the possession above once the other team gets the ball if there was no score. For example, the team misses a shot and defense grabs a rebound, or the team turns the ball over on their own card (41-46 range) or the other team steals the ball (11-16 or 31 range).

Add 1 if player makes the second of two free throws only, or makes the first free throw and his missed second free throw is rebounded by the defense.

Add 2 points if he scores a 2-point basket or makes both free throws.

Add 3 points if he scores a 3-point basket or makes all 3 free throws after being fouled on a 3-point miss.

Keeping track of an extended possession

While a possession ends under the scenarios in the previous section, an offensive rebound or foul after a shoot can all require you to keep track of what has happened during a possession that is still live

If a player misses a shot on a shaded possession the possession is not over, so it helps to write a small dash to indicate the team has not scored but you are rolling two dice (see below on dice rolls) to see if the team gets an offensive rebound to try to score again. If the defense gets the rebound then end the possession and update the score as indicated in the previous possession. Occasionally this can happen more than once, if a team gets an offensive rebound, and misses again, but grabs another offensive rebound etc.

If a team scores but still has the ball then it helps to write a small “1,” “2,” or “3” in the box to remember to give them credit for those points and then add any additional points before the possession ends. For example, a player scores a 2- or 3-point shot and is fouled, so a “2” or “3” is written, and then an extra point can be added if he makes the free throw or if he misses the free throw and a teammate gets the offensive rebound then the small number is a remind to add those points to any points scored after the offensive rebound. The same thing can happen if a player makes the first free throw (for a small “1” in the box) and then misses the second free throw and the same scenario occurs.

Recording the last 9 possessions above the diagonal line

Normally the last nine possessions are recorded exactly as possessions 44 to 10 are recorded, except the updated score is written in the top left half of the possession box. If that happens on all 9 possessions and none of the bottom right half of those 9 possessions are used then the game will last 44 possessions (66 counting the 22 possessions we assume led to the 20-20 score).

However, two results lead to also using the bottom portion of the box for an extra possession.

Foul adds possession during last 9 possessions


If either (or both) team fouls during the possession of the top half of the 9th through 1st possession, then both teams will get an extra roll with the results recorded in the bottom right portion.

Steal and Fast Break adds possession during last 9 possessions


Anytime a guard steals the ball, or a forward steals the ball on a steal roll of 11, 13, 15 or 31, the team has the option of running a fast break instead of a normal offense (see rules below). If either team steals the ball during the top half of possession 9 to 1 then both teams get an extra roll in the bottom half. If the visiting team steals and runs a fast break then the next roll is recorded in the bottom of their portion of the box. If the home team steals the ball then their result will go in the top half but make a note to remember the visiting team will then start in the bottom half

Note that you can never “double up” to create more than one extra possession. For example, if one team fouls and the other steals and runs a fast break, you still only have one total extra possession for each team in the bottom of the possession box. Likewise, if one of those things happens while playing the bottom half of a box, even if you get another foul or steal and fast break it does not add another possession below. Once the bottom half possessions are complete, you go to the top of the next possession and only if another foul or steal-fast break can add a new possession on the bottom half of that new box.

Also keep in mind that the game will normally end once the offense completes their possession on the top half of the No. 1 possession, but if the Away team fouls them or steals it and can run a fast break they can extend the game to the bottom half of the 1 possession (which also happens if the home team ran a fast break or fouled when the away team rolled for their “1” possession.

Therefore, while the game is officially 66 possessions, if a foul or steal-fast break occurred on the top half of all 9 possessions by either or both teams, then a regulation game could extend to 75 possessions (53 actually played out in the game plus the 22 assumed for the 20-20 start, as opposed to the minimum 44 actually played).

Rolling the dice to determine the result of each possession

As indicated in the Dice Chart and Sample Game at the front, the vast majority of the game is played by rolling all four dice at a time. The 8-sided die determines who gets the ball, the two 6-sided dice give a result between 11 and 66 to cross reference on the table below, and then if nothing happens on the chart below, refer to the 20-sided die roll on the offensive player’s card.

The Dice Chart explains what happen based on the 11-66 roll, but the following is a further explanation of how the 8-sided die roll determines who gets the ball.

Read the 8-sided die to see which player gets ball.

Each roll can either go to the corresponding position (1-5) or to various other positions in different circumstances on a 6, 7 or 8.

Rolls of 1-5 go to the corresponding position and his defender


1 = The player you put on the top of the 5 players in the game (the point guard) gets the ball.

2 = The player you put second from the top of the 5 players (the shooting guard) gets the ball.

3 = The player you put in the middle of the five players in game (swing or small forward) gets the ball.

4 = The player you put next to the bottom of five players in the game (power forward) gets the ball.

5 = The player you put on the bottom of the 5 players in the game (the center) gets the ball.

Rolls of 6, 7 or 8


On a roll of 6, 7 or 8, the ball goes to a player who grabbed an offensive rebound as is trying to go straight up with the shot, or a player who steals the ball and is starting a fast break, or in all other cases goes to a player with a “6,” “7” or “8” on his card by his position number – or even two of those numbers.

Player steals ball and team calls “fast break”


After certain steals a team can all “fast break.” A fast break can be used if either of the two guards steals the ball on any roll, or if either of the two forwards steals the ball on an odd roll (11, 13, 15 or 31), but a center can never start a fast break on a steal. A team should almost always choose a fast break because doing so lowers the roll of the 20-sided die by 1 to give them a better chance of scoring a 3-pointer or other basket or be fouled.

A team might choose to call “normal offense” instead of using the fast break if the player stealing the ball has a very poor offensive card and he hopes to get the ball to another player, or in the last 9 possessions if the team is ahead and does not want to drag the game out by creating an extra possession.

If the team calls fast break then all rolls of 6, 7 or 8 go to the player who stole the ball, while 1-5 still go to the normal possession (as noted below, no matter which player gets the ball the 20-sided die is reduced by 1).

Player grabs offensive rebound and chooses to try for a stick back basket


Likewise, if a player grabs the offensive rebound he can attempt to score immediately off the rebound on what is referred to as a “stick back” basket. Since unlike a fast break this does not add an extra possession, the only reasons not to attempt this is if the player with the rebound is a very poor offensive player (makes few shots or turns it over a lot), or if the team desperately needs a 3-pointers. In either of those cases the team can call “normal offense.”

Also like a fast break, the 20-sided dice roll is reduced by 20 (see below), with the one disadvantage being that if the player who grabbed the rebound gets the ball he cannot make or attempt a 3-pointer, so his result would be changed from 3 points to 2 points.

In most cases, player with 6, 7 or 8 on card gets ball

Some players on each team have a 6, 7 or 8 on their card in addition to their position number (1-5). In those cases, they may get the ball on a roll of 6, 7 or 8.

Option 1 – SIMPLE. If a 6, 7 or 8 is rolled, choose a player with that number gets ball.

You can go exactly with the 6, 7 and 8 numbers on the player cards, and if you have two players with the same number just choose between them. However, it is better to use option 2 since the numbers are transferrable.

Option 2 – BASIC. Write in small 6, 7 or 8 by which player gets each roll.


6 - Starting with the top player, the point guard, the first player with a 6, 7 and/or 8 in the lower left hand corner of old horizontal card sets or near the top of vertical card sets will get the ball on all 8-sided die rolls of “6” so write a small “6” by their number. If that player has two numbers such as 6&8 then give them the first two numbers, so 6 and 7.

7 - The second player with a 6, 7 and/or 8 gets the ball on a roll of 7. Keep in mind this might change any time the line-up changes. If this player started the game getting the ball on a “6” but then a point guard came in who had an extra number too, then the point guard would then get the ball on a “6” and this shooting guard would now get the ball on a “7” instead. If a point guard came in who received the ball on two extra numbers – then he would get the ball on a 6 or 7 and the shooting guard would now get the ball on an 8.

8 - The third player with a 6, 7 and/or 8 going from top to bottom gets the ball on a roll of "8."

“20” for more players with extra numbers – if a PF or C has a 6, 7 or 8 on his card but all three numbers are used up by other players above him, then he does not receive the ball on any number except his position number of 4 or 5. However, when this happens write down a “20” which means he now makes shots on a 20-sided die roll of 20 (see below for 20-sided die roll) because he is now shooting less but taking better shots and more likely to make them. If a great center will not get the ball because of players above him, you may also consider moving him up the stack of players so that he does get the ball on an 8 or other number – just keep in mind this will give him fewer chances for rebounds if playing as a forward instead of a center.

Situations in which a 6, 7 or 8 results in a turnover/shot clock violation

In certain cases no player gets the ball on an initial 8-sided die roll of 6, 7 or 8, and anytime that happens, roll all the dice again but on the second roll players can only get the ball on a 1-5 and any roll of 6, 7 or 8 on the second roll results in a shot clock violation turnover. The only exception to needing to roll again is that if the 11-66 roll is in the team’s dunk range (e.g. Dunk on 51-53, see explanation below in 11-66 roll descriptions) in which case the offense does get to dunk and simply chooses a player to score, or they instead have a Stop Range (e.g. Stop 51-52) then the defense still prevents the offense from scoring and chooses which player gets a rebound after the missed shot.
Roll of 6, 7 or 8 on second roll after first roll went to no player
If the team has a player with a 6 and 7, but no 8, and the first roll is an “8” and the second roll is a “6” it is a turnover. Even though a player had the “6” needed to get the ball on the first roll, once you are on the second roll of a possession it can only go to a player on a 1-5. With only 10 seconds left on the shot clock for a second roll, anytime it does not result in a 1, 2, 3, 4 or 5 then the team turns the ball over on a shot clock violation.
No Point Guard in Game
As covered in the game set-up, if no player in the game has either a “PG” anywhere near the top of the card, or a “0” or “1” by their position mark on card sets that use this, then the game is being played with no point guard in the game. Ignore the result of a 6, 7 or 8 roll even on the first roll, and then if any of those three numbers come up again on the second roll it is a turnover.
Choosing to roll the 8-sided die only before the other dice last 4 possessions
If a team desperately needs to get the ball to one particular player, and the game is in the last four possessions, they can choose to roll only the 8-sided die first. In that case they roll that die first and then choose rather to have the player who gets the ball try to score or “keep passing” the ball. If they choose to keep passing and roll all the dice again, then a roll of 1, 2, 3, 4 or 5 goes to the position player regardless of who they wanted to get the ball, and a 6-8 is a turnover. This might be used if a team must have a 3-pointer to have a chance to avoid giving the ball to someone with no 3-pointers made on their card.

Different Defensive Players on Rolls of 6, 7 or 8 or changing defenders

Normally when an offensive player gets the ball, the player on defense is the player at the same position. In fact, you can keep to the SIMPLE game and make this always be the case. However, the game is more realistic and accurate if you use the two advanced rules on which defender is on defense.

Defense chooses to switch defenders

If a good player commits a 3rd or 4th foul in a game (keep in mind all players start with one foul), the team can switch him to guard another position. For example, if a player draws a 4th foul guarding the 2020 national leading scorer in Markus Howard, he is likely to draw a 5th foul because Howard gets the ball on 37.5% of all Marquette possessions (on a 1, 6 and 7) AND he draws fouls 20 percent of the time he has the ball (a 8-11 foul drawn range on the 20-sided die).

The team could choose to have the defender with four fouls instead guard another Marquette player who perhaps only gets the ball one-third as often as Howard (a “2” or a “3” with no extra numbers) and when he does get the ball draws fewer fouls (perhaps just two numbers on the 20-sided die).

If this switch is made, when the player who switched is still guarded by the same player (Howard) that he is no longer guarding. Also, in addition to affecting when his defensive rolls of 11-36 are used, this also determines when his defensive rebounding range comes in to play. You would not want to move a point guard defender with an offensive rebound range of 1-1 and defensive range of 1-2 to guard the opposing center in most cases because he would likely have many more chances for rebounds which the opposing center would get as well.

Roll of 31 or 32 rolled for possible steal or blocked shot of any player

Note that if a player has a steal range of 11-16 (31 all) or on older cards a 11-20 which means the same thing, then he is considered the defender and steal the ball on any opposing roll of 31 even if some player other than the one he is guarding has the ball. Likewise if a defensive player has a 21-26 (32 all) or on older cards a 21-30, then he is considered the defender on all rolls of 32 by the opponents and blocks the shot no matter who has the ball on the opposing team.

ADVANCED RULE. By the same token, if a player’s card has a steal range of 11-17, 11-18 or 11-19 he can steal the ball on a 16 on certain other opposing players, or a blocked shot range of 21-27, 21-28 or 21-29 he can blocked a shot of certain other players. The extra blocked shots start from the top of the opposing line-up and work down, so a range of 21-27 means he also blocks the opposing point guard on a 26, while a 21-28 means he can block both the point guard and shooting guard on a 26 etc. For steals it starts from the bottom and works up – so an 11-17 means he steals the ball from the opposing center on a 16, or 11-18 means he steals from the center or power forward.

IMPORTANT - Rolls on 6, 7, 8 are “Team” defense for Steals or Blocks


If you want to keep to a SIMPLE GAME you can say the player who gets the ball on a 6, 7 or 8 is still guarded by the opponent at the same position. However, this will grossly distort results because a player with an 11-16 on steals will always be assigned to any player with three numbers (e.g. 1, 6 & 7) or at least a player with two and get way more steals than he should and shut down the opponent.

Fouls on 33-36 still on same position unless switched


On rolls of 33-36 (fouls) the defender is the player at the same position (unless he switched as above), however the BASIC GAME then rolls of 11-32 are considered “TEAM DEFENSE.”

Steal and Block Ranges Much Lower if 8-sided Die 6, 7 or 8


Note that it is much harder to steal the ball when the 8-sided die is 6, 7 or 8. In such cases the ball is never stolen on a 14, 15 or 16, and the Dice Chart indicates that a roll of 13 is only a steal in these cases if an 11-19 or 11-16 (31 all) defender is on the court. A 12 is only a steal if a 11-16 or better is on the court, and even an 11 is only a steal if an 11-13 or higher is on the court.

However, when the 8-sided die is a 1-5 then the defender on the play can steal any time the 11-16 is in his range, and a 31 is a steal no matter what the 8-sided die or who has the ball.

The same ratios exist for blocked shots in the 21-26 range, and likewise a 32 is always a blocked shot no matter who shoots the ball.

Read 11-66 Dice Roll

Once you determine which player has the ball based on the 8-sided die, look at the two 6-sided dice to get a reading of 11-66 and find it in a range below. The Dice Chart explains all result, but the following are narratives in case you find anything on the Dice Chart confusing.

Look at Offensive Card on rolls of 41-16


41-46 Turnover. Look at the right column on the player’s card who received the ball on the roll of 1-8. If the roll is within the Turnover range on his card, then he turns the ball over, his team gets 0 points on the possession, and the other team has the ball. (Advanced Rule: If the player with the ball is out of stamina (playing his 9th possession with only “Stamina: 8” or “Can play 8 of 44 possessions” on card, then lower the roll by one so that a roll of 43 becomes a 42 etc. and he is more likely to turn the ball over. If he has more than doubled his stamina, such as this player playing his 17th possession, then lower it by 2.)

51-66 Dunk. Look at the dunk range of the player with the ball, and then subtract or add the opponent defenders "adj opp dunk/layup" number. As noted in the game setup, the whole team will have the same range. For example, if the offensive player/team has a 51-54 and the defender is a plus 2, then the new range is 51-56. If the roll is within the range plus or minus the defender, then the player gets by the defender to dunk the ball for 2 points.

Note that if the result is in the range, the offense an still choose the result of the 20-sided die roll, which would only result if it fell in the “made 3-pt shot” range or if he drew a foul on that card on a star opposing player already in foul trouble.

Look at Defender’s card on 11-36 roll for steal, block or foul


While the defender’s card is always used on rolls of 11-36, the rules are different depending on if the 8-sided die was a 1-5 or a 6-8.

11-16, 31 roll for steal if 8-sided die was 1-5

11-16 Steal - Basic: check the Steal Range of the defender across from the player with the ball, and if the roll is in his steal range of 11-16 then the defender steals the ball. (Advanced Rules: If out of Stamina then increase dice roll by 1 – e.g. 13 to 14 – or if doubled then by two – 13 to 15 – to make steal less likely, but player with a 31 still steals from any opposing player on that roll.)

Note that if any defender has an 11-20 or 11-16 (31 all) then he also steals the ball from any opposing player on a roll of 31.
Fast break after steal
Any time a guard steals the ball the team may opt for a “fast break,” or “normal offense.” If a forward steals the ball on a roll of 11, 13, 15 or 31 the team has the same option. If a center steals the ball the team cannot fast break, only play normal offense.

In most cases, a team that can fast break should do it. The number on the 20-sided die (see below) is lowered by 1 to give the team a better chance at scoring and hitting a 3-pointer. The only reason for choosing “normal offense” instead is if the player who stole the ball is a much weaker offensive player than his teammates (since he is the one who attempts the score on 50% of fast breaks as covered above in the second on the 8-sided die) or if the team is protecting a lead in the last 9 possessions and does not want to create an extra possession to give the opponent more chances to catch-up.

Steals (advanced rules)

If a player has a steal range of higher than 11-16 after any adjustments, then he can steal the ball on rolls of 16 or sometimes 31 when certain other players are on defense:

Steal 11-17 Also steals on 16 for bottom of 4 other players
Steal 11-18 Also steals on 16 for bottom TWO of other 4 players
Steal 11-19 Also steals on 16 for bottom THREE of other 4 players
Steal 11-20 Steals on a roll of 31 for any player
Steal 11-21 Steals on all rolls of 31 PLUS 16 for bottom of 4 players
Steal 11-22 Steals on all rolls of 31 PLUS 16 for bottom 2 of 4 players Blocks

21-26, 32 roll for block if 8-sided die was 1-5

Check the 21-26 Block Range of the defender across from the player with the ball to see if he blocks the shot - which is treated as a missed shot. Note that if a player has a 21-26 (32 all) or 21-30 or higher than he also blocks a shot on any roll of 32 no matter who on the opposing team has the ball. (Advanced Rules: If out of Stamina then increase dice roll by 1 – e.g. 23 to 24 – or if doubled then by two – 23 to 25 – to make blocks less likely, but player with a 32 still blocks shot by any opposing player on that roll.)
Blocks (advanced rules)
If a player has a block range of higher than 21-26, then he can steal the ball on rolls of 26 or sometimes 32 when certain other players are on defense:

Block 21-27 Also blocks on 26 for top of 4 other players
Block 21-28 Also blocks on 26 for top TWO of other 4 players
Block 21-29 Also blocks on 26 for top THREE of other 4 players
Block 21-30 Also blocks on roll of 32 for any player
Block 21-31 Blocks on all rolls of 32 PLUS 26 for top of 4 players
Block 31-32 Blocks on all rolls of 32 PLUS 26 for top TWO of 4

As noted above, “31” is a steal if an defender has it

31 - Steal. This is a steal if any defender on the court has a steal range of 11-20 or higher or on the 2020 cards include instead a range of "11-16 (31 all)."

As noted above, “32” is a block if an defender has it

32 - Block. This is a block if any defender on the court has a block range of 21-30 or higher or on the 2020 cards include instead a range of "21-26 (32 all)."

33 - 36 possible foul.

If the roll of 33-36 on the defender's card is a foul. Also look at the 20-sided die (Advanced Rules: If out of Stamina then increase dice roll by 1 – e.g. 33 to 34 – or if doubled then by two – 33 to 35 – to make fouls committed more likely.):

“Made 3-pt shot” – opposing player scores a 3-pointer and gets one free throw to try to make it four points for the possession.
“Made 2-pt shot” – opposing player scores 2-pointer and gets one free throw to try to make it three points for the possession.
“fouled, roll 20-sided…” – if this occurs in the first two columns on the score sheet then it is a 1-and-1 free throw, with the player getting another shot if me makes the first one.
“Missed 3-pointer” – gets three free throws, the shot is missed but it does not count as a missed shot
“Missed 2-pointer” – gets three free throws, the shot is missed but it does not count as a missed shot
Avoiding Fouls (advanced rules) – Option 1
As noted above, the easiest way to try to avoid fouling out of a game is to switch a defender with three or four fouls to guard another player who draws fewer fouls. If he does this, he is also defending that other position when a defensive rebound comes to that position.
Avoiding Fouls (advanced rules) – Option 2
The other option is to try to avoid fouling, which means he only commits a foul if the foul is in his 33-36 range AND the 20-sided die also refers to a foul drawn on the offensive player.

However, if the player is avoiding a foul then all rolls of 31 to 36 on his card become baskets for the player he is guarding even if a roll would have resulted in a blocked shot or steal AND on any roll on the 20-sided die that would have resulted in a foul instead becomes a 2-point basket. If a player with an 11-20 steal range is avoiding a foul then he can still steal on a roll of 31 on another player's card but if the player he is guarding has the ball then a 31 scores a basket. Likewise if a player with a 21-30 who would normally block all shots on a 32 does still block the shot unless the player he is guarding has the ball, in which case the opposing player scores at least 2 points (3 if his 20-sided die results in a 3-point shot made).

A player avoiding fouls must also reduce his rebounding, steal and blocked shot number by 1.

Read the 20-sided die (if no result on 11-66 dice roll)

If the result of any roll of 11-66 does NOT result in a steal, block, foul, turnover or dunk, then proceed to read the 20-sided die and look at the right column or bottom area (depending on the card set edition) of the offensive player's card with the ball. Note that if the 20-sided die is referred to on a fast break or attempt to score immediately after an offensive rebound then the result of the 20-sided die is lowered by one before finding which of the five ranges for results are found. (Advanced Rules: If out of Stamina then increase dice roll by 1 – e.g. 7 to 8 – or if doubled then by two – 7 to 9 – to make tired player less likely to make shots.)

20-sided roll falls in “made 3-pt shot”

If the roll falls in the “made 3-pt shot” range (the first numbers, typically something like a 1-2 range) the player makes a 3-pt shot. See “33-36 resulted in a foul,” above, which leads to him getting one free throw for a chance at a 4-pt play.

Call “attempting 3-pointer” before roll to increase range

If a team chooses to look for a 3-point shot, which should only be done if behind by several points very late in the game, then each player’s 3-point range is increased based on two things; 1) a player’s range can no more than double, so a player with a 1-2 range can only increase it to a high of 1-4; 2) the player can only add a maximum of one number for every number they subtract from the top of their 2-point made range.

For example, Marquette’s Markus Howard’s 2020 card shows a made 3-point shot on a 1-4, however he cannot increase that range to 1-8 because his original 2-point made range is 5-7. To figure out how the card is adjusted if the team is trying for a 3-pointer increase, first increase Howard’s made 3-point range one to 1-5, then lower the top of the made 2-point range from 7 to 6 to leave him with only a 6 for a made 2-pointer. If his made 2-point range had been 5-8, then he could have subtracted two from the 8 to lower it to 6 to make his adjusted 3-point card 1-6 made 3-pointer with no made 2-pointers. However, if a player had a 1-2 made 3-pointer and made 2-pointer of 3-9, he could only double the 3-point range to add two numbers and make it a 1-4 range, and thus would only take the same number of rolls off the top of the 2-point range to go from 9 to 7, so that player would end up with 1-4 and 5-7. The numbers changed from made 2-pointer become missed 2-pointers. The ranges for fouls drawn and other missed shots are not affected.

Advanced rule for 3-point shots for players 1986 or earlier


Almost all player cards from the mid-1980s and earlier were for players who did not play in games with a 3-point line, and others played with 3-point lines at various distances. For those players the cards are all based on one-fifth of their made shots being from behind a 3-point line. An advanced rule adjustment is to make all shots by the team's center 2-pointers, but redistribute his 3-pointers by adding to the ranges of other players following the lines below:

If center’s 3-pt made was 1-1 change that to a 2-point shot, but add one Made 3-pointer number if 8-sided die roll was "2" roll (shooting guard)

If center’s 3-pt made was 1-2, change those to 2-point shot, and add one 3-pt made on "1" or "2" roll to PG or SG.

If center’s 3-pt made was 1-3 or higher change those all to a 2-point shot, and add two 3-pt made on "2" to SG and add one on "1" to PG.

If the center also gets the ball on an extra 8-sided roll (7 or 8) then add a 3ptM number to whoever gets the ball on an 8-sided die roll of "6."

20-sided roll falls in “made 2-pt shot”

2 pt. - The player makes a 2-pt shot. See above if the 33-36 resulted in a foul, he also gets one free throw for a chance at a 3-pt play.

Note if the team is trying for a 3-pointer to subtract the number of made 2-pointers for every 3-pointer added as explained above. This is not a good strategy unless you are desperate for 3-pointers with little time to catch up, because for every 2-pointer you are changing to a 3-pointer (+1) you are changing a 2-pointer to no points for a missed shot (-2) – however if the team is behind 7 points with 3 possessions left it is a chance worth taking.

Fouled, roll 20-sided for free throws

The player gets two shots UNLESS the 33-36 free throw dice roll was also a foul and it occurred during the first two columns (44 to 22 possession). If that happens in the first two columns on the scoresheet then the player gets a 1-and-1 free throw. If he makes the first shot he takes a second shot as well.

Missed 3-pointer

The player misses a 3-point shot UNLESS the 33-36 roll resulted in a foul on the defenders card – in which case he shoots three free throws.

Missed 2-pointer

The player misses a 2-point shot UNLESS the 33-36 roll resulted in a foul on the defenders card – in which case he shoots three free throws.
Missed 2-point or 3-point shot in Non-Shaded Possession goes to defender indicated
If he misses one of these shots on a non-shaded possession (43, 41, 39 to 11 or on the final 8 even numbers 8, 6, 4 and 2) then the ball is rebounded by the defender indicated on the score sheet by that possession. 
Missed Final Free Throw in Shaded Possession
If he misses one of these shots on a shaded possession (44, 42, 40 to 10 on even numbers and the final odd numbers 9 7, 5, 3 and 1) then refer to the Rebound Chart in the bottom right of the scoresheet with the explanation below (note it is much harder for the offense to get a rebound on a missed foul shot then a regular missed shot).

Roll of 20 on the 20-sided die

When a roll of 20 appears on a 20-sided die it is almost always a missed field goal or free throw. However, there are a couple of exceptions. Sometimes a player (likely a center) has extra numbers – a 6, 7 and/or 8 – on his card but he only gets the ball on his position roll of 1-5 because the 6, 7 and 8 are already taken by other players. For any position that he is in the game and not able to use his 6, 7 or 8, he instead gets the advantage of scoring a 2-point basket if he shoots and his 20-sided die roll is a 20.

The only other case in which a 20 is changed to a 2-point basket is a couple of very rare cards (e.g. Ja Morant at Murray State) in which the assist rate was incredibly high. In that case, while Morant or anyone else with an “Assist 20” on his card is in the game, the other four players all score on a roll of 20 on their cards.

Possible rolls if possession is still alive AFTER the 4-dice roll

Most possessions end after the four dice are rolled. If the team turns the ball over, has it stolen, makes a shot, or misses a shot on a non-shaded possession (44, 42, 40 to 10 on even numbers then 9, 7, 5, 3 and 1 on odd numbered possessions). Whenever this happens, simply update the score in their column by leaving it the same or adding 1, 2, 3 or more points and roll the four dice for the opposing team’s next possession.

Roll 20-sided die only for each free throw

Any time a player is fouled he will get either one, two or three free throws, or a one-and-one in which he must make the first free throw to get a second shot.

When this happens, roll the 20-sided die once for each free throw, and if it falls with his “free throw good” range near the bottom of his card add a point. If he misses the first of two free throws or the first or second of three free throws, then the 20-sided die again for his next free throw.

If he misses his last shot of 1, 2 or 3 free throws, or if he misses the first shot of a 1-and-1 then the ball must be rebounded in one of two ways.
Missed Final Free Throw in Non-Shaded Possession goes to defender indicated
Like in a missed shot (see above) if he misses one of these shots on a non-shaded possession (43, 41, 39 to 11 or on the final 8 even numbers 8, 6, 4 and 2) then the ball is rebounded by the defender indicated on the score sheet by that possession. 
Missed Final Free Throw in Shaded Possession
Like in a missed shot (see above) if he misses one of these shots on a shaded possession (44, 42, 40 to 10 on even numbers and the final odd numbers 9 7, 5, 3 and 1) then refer to the Rebound Chart in the bottom right of the scoresheet with the explanation below (note it is much harder for the offense to get a rebound on a missed foul shot then a regular missed shot).

Times in which fewer than all four dice are rolled

However, there are a few exceptions in which you roll fewer than four dice at a time:

1)    Only the 20-sided die is rolled for any free throw attempt (as noted above),
2)    Only the 20-sided die and one of the 6-sided die is rolled when referring to the rebound chart (see below).
3)    ADVANCED GAME. If the defense chooses to go for a steal or foul, then the offense rolls three of the dice but not the 20-sided die (next example)
4)    ADVANCED GAME. And if a team wants to try to get the ball to a particular player, then they roll the 8-sided die first and then determine whether or not to roll the other three dice to see what they player does or roll all four dice to take a chance on a new player getting the ball (next example)

ADVANCED GAME OPTION - Roll only 3 dice (skip 20-sided) to intentionally foul

If a team wants to try to create extra possessions to catch up in the last nine possessions of the game, they set aside the 20-sided die and roll the other three. The result of this roll is almost always a foul with the player who gets the ball on the 8-sided die shooting two free throws. However, if the results of the roll of the 11-66 dice is either a turnover in the 41-46 range or a steal in the 11-16 or 31 range (see explanations below) then the team forces a turnover AND creates the extra possession just as would happen on any other steal or foul (the turnover creates the extra possession only when this strategy is being used and not in normal play – because this aggressive strategy “speeds up” the offense to force a quicker turnover.

ADVANCED GAME OPTION – Roll 8-sided die first, then others

Instead of rolling all four dice at once, a team that needs to try to get the ball to one particular player or needs to get the ball to a 3-point shooter in the closing four possessions can choose to roll the 8-sided dice first at any point in the last four possessions of the game. If the team wants that player to try to score they then roll the other three dice to determine the result just as they would have under the scenarios above. If they do not want that player to attempt to score, then roll all four dice again but a 6-8 becomes a turnover and only a 1,2,3,4 or 5 goes to a player to shoot.

Roll 20-sided and one 6-sided die for Rebound Chart

If a team misses a 2-pointer or 3-pointer without being fouled, or misses his final free throw, then someone must grab the rebound. If the miss occurs on a non-shaded possession (43, 41, 39 to 11 or on the final 8 even numbers 8, 6, 4 and 2) then the ball is rebounded by the player indicated on the scoresheet whether the miss occurred on a free throw, 2-pointer or 3-pointer.

20-sided die determines which player has first chance at rebound

The 20-sided die in are rebound chart roll is used on the Rebound Chart down the lower right side of the score sheet. The 1-3 roll means the offensive center gets the first chance, the 4-5 means the offensive power forward gets the first shot at the rebound etc. through a 19 means the defensive point guard gets the first shot.

A roll of 10 or 20 is unique because it means the high player on the court, regardless of whether on offense or defense, gets the rebound. In this case, the offense wins a tie, and if more than one teammates are tied then the team can choose who gets it (on offense choosing the better offensive player).

6-sided die determines if the player gets the rebound

Once you determine who gets a chance at the rebound based on the 20-sided die then look at the 6-sided die to see if it falls within that player’s “Offensive Reb” range if it is an offensive player with the first chance (1-9 on the 20-sided die) or in the “Defensive Reb” range if it is a defensive player with the first chance (11-19).

If the 6-sided die is outside the player’s range then the opposing player guarding him gets the rebound.

Advanced Rule 1. A player with no Stamina remaining (e.g. playing 9th possession with “Stamina 9” or “Can play 8 of 44 possessions” on his card then his offensive and defensive rebound range by 1 (e.g. a 1-4 range becomes 1-3). If he more than doubled his Stamina (e.g. playing his 17th possession) then it is reduced by 2 (e.g. 1-4 to 1-2).

Advanced Rule. If the opposition has switched who a player is guarding and he fails to get a defensive rebound, then the player he is guarding gets the offensive rebound. If the offensive player fails to get the rebound then the player guarding him gets it, even if the defense changed who was guarding him.

Note that if the 20-sided die was a 10 or 20, then the 6-sided die is irrelevant as the highest player on the court gets it as noted above.

Offensive Players who cannot get free throw rebound

It is very difficult for the offensive team to get a rebound after a free throw. While they get roughly one in three offensive rebounds overall they get only about one in seven rebounds after a missed free throw.

If a rebound roll of the 20-sided die results in a roll of 10 or 20, then the high player rebounder on the court gets the ball regardless – even if it is the player shooting the free throw or one of the guards who cannot normally get a rebound.

However, if the 20-sided die is 1-9 or 11-19 on the rebound chart after the missed free throw use the following additional chart:

On a roll or 8-9 or 18-19 if the result of the 6-sided die determines the offensive shooting guard or point guard would get the ball after a missed shot on a missed free throw change that result to give the rebound to the defensive center.

On a roll of 6-7 or 16-17 if the result indicates the offensive small forward would get the ball, then change the result to give the ball to the defensive power forward, with one exception. If the Center or Power Forward missed the free throw then the offensive small forward can get the rebound because he took their spot as one of the two offensive rebounders in the lane.

On a roll of 1-5 or 11-15 indicates the offensive power forward or center would get the rebound on a missed shot, he can also get the offensive rebound on a missed free throw with one exception. If the power forward or center who would have grabbed the offensive rebound on a missed free throw is the player who shot the free throw then the rebound goes to his defender (center or power forward). Note whoever shoots the free throw can get it, but only on a 10 or 20 roll on which his offensive rebound range is higher or equal to all five defenders and all four offensive teammates.

Offensive Options after Grabbing Offensive Rebounds

In any scenario above in which an offensive player grabs a rebound, whether off a missed free throw or missed shot, note that the team is still in the same possession box (even if they have already scored 1 or more points before the offensive rebound).

Option 1 – Roll all 4 dice again as though a new possession was starting

The offense can simply call “normal offense” and roll all four dice and use the normal procedure just like the start of a possession. In this case the team is bringing the ball back out to run their normal offense.

Option 2 – Attempt for “Stick Back” to score right away

In most cases, when a team grabs an offensive rebound, they want to try to score right away. Unless “normal offense” is called roll all four dice again. As noted above, if the 8-sided die is a 1-5 that position gets the ball. If the roll is 6-8, the player who grabbed the offensive rebound gets the ball.

The roll on the 20-sided die is lowered by one to give the team a better chance to score and score a 3-pointer.

The only disadvantage to trying to score immediately is that the player who gets the rebound (either by his position coming up on the 1-5 die or through a 6-8) cannot score or shoot a 3-pointer, so if the 20-sided roll reduced by one falls in the 3-point made range change it to a 2-point made, and if it falls in the missed 3-pointer range and he is fouled it only gets two free throws for being fouled on a 2-point shot.

Therefore if a team desperately needs a 3-pointer at the end of a game, or if the player grabbing the rebounder is a weaker offensive player than his teammates, then the team might want to call normal offense instead. But in almost all cases they should try to score immediately.

ADVANCED RULE – Home Court Advantage

While the left side of the sheet is the road team and the right side is the home team for scoring purposes, in most cases – particularly if you are playing simulated NCAA March Madness games – you want to treat the game as a neutral court game.

However, to play a season or NIT tournament games with one team at home, the following adjustment is made to calibrate the average advantage the home team enjoys in the match-up.

36 when away team has the ball is a turnover rather than a foul

If using the home court advantage and the 11-66 dice come up as a 36 when the visitor has the ball, they lose the ball out of bounds after being bumped by the home team defender but getting no call from the referee. Record 0 points for that away team possession, and home team gets the ball.

66 when home team has ball, false foul called on defender

If using the home court advantage and the 11-66 roll comes up as a 66 when home has the ball, the referee calls a foul. If the home player makes a basket on the 1-20 die, then the basket is still good but the referee calls a mistaken foul on the defender to also give him a foul shot. If the home player with the ball misses a shot then the referee incorrectly calls a foul on the defender, and the home player gets either 2 or 3 shots depending on if he missed a 2-point shot or 3-point shot. If the 20-sided die results in the home player getting foul shots, then there is no change from the roll due to the roll of 66.

Background: College referees get calls correct an incredibly high percentage of time, but the indication is that the difference in home advantage is that the home team gets 1 or 2 "home" foul calls than they would on a neutral court, while the road team gets 1 to 2 "missed" calls which they should have received a foul call on the home team but did not. Add it together the home team will average taking three more free throws that they would have gotten on a neutral court, and since players average making around 67 percent of free throws they score 2 more points than they would on the neutral court. On the flip side, the visiting team averages getting 3 free throws fewer than they would have been able to take on a neutral court so they score 2 points fewer than they would on a neutral court, so a 4-point average advantage for the home team.