Showing posts with label Rutgers basketball. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Rutgers basketball. Show all posts

Monday, September 4, 2023

1976 Rutgers Crushes Clemson Despite Horace Grant's 17, 10

Rutgers put on an offensive fireworks display and James Bailey threw the block party.

Yes, we know Labor Day is a baseball and football 3-day weekend, but with the college conference realignment sending us scrambling to create new all-time Value Add Basketball Game teams this weekend we had to get in at least one game from our tournament.

Clemson's Horace Grant looked every bit the dominant inside force who averaged a double-double at the next level during the Bulls first three NBA titles. He registered 17 points and 10 rebounds including the pictured roll in the first photo in which his and-one stick back gave the Tigers an early lead in the 48th possession (counting down to possession 1). However, his great teammate big man Elden Campbell was still just a freshman during this 1987 season so could only play 21 possessions, and that was not nearly enough.

The 1976 Rutgers team looked every bit the squad that averaged more than 93 points a game and went 31-0 until losing in the Final Four. Phil Sellers had a steal and score at the other end to finish the half with a 47-38 lead. From there, Rutgers pulled away for a 97-77 win that improves their ranking among our all-time great teams in our Pomeroy type rankings from a +1.2 to a +6.7 to improve from 68th to 28th in the rankings. Clemson drops from a -7.2 to -12.3 to fall from 155th to 174th.

Note: we had just increased the rating of all 178 teams by +2.2 because, like the www.kenpom.com ratings, this figure calculates the average score margin we would expect if the team played all 177 other great teams in the game. Against an average team (not the average of these great teams) each team would be a good 20 points better than their rating in this game of only playing other great teams. We we'd expect Clemson's player cards to average a 12 point loss against other all-time teams in the game, but at least an average of an 8-point win against an average team in a given season.

The dimes on the score sheet show the players who get the ball more often (on the 6, 7 and 8 die rolls on the 8-sided die) and Clemson relies on their inside game with dimes on the SF, PF and C positions, while Rutgers up tempo team relies on their small guys with the dimes on the PG, SG and SF. Rolls of 1-5 go to the player in that position, and if there are not enough dimes to cover a roll of 6,7 or 8 then the team rerolls all dice to see if a 1-5 gets it, but on the second roll it is a shot clock violation on a 6, 7 or 8. 

However, while Rutgers PG, SG and SF combined for an incredible 58 points in the game that included 7 extra possessions due to Rutgers up tempo style (click for 14 fast paced teams), the most incredible performance came from the Scarlet Knight's center and it was on defense. Center James Bailey easily set a record for the hundreds of VABG games with have played with a record 10 blocked shots to lead the team to 16 blocked shots.

Five years after averaging 3 blocked shots in only 23 minutes a game as a freshman on this Rutgers team, Bailey would go onto block 6 shots in three different NBA games in the 1980-81 NBA season.

Rutgers will await their next opponent in our 42-team tournament of our new teams but will get a bye as they are now assured of being one of the six top teams who will get byes in the next round of 21 first round winners. 

In the tournament of the first 96 teams we created, Bill Walton's UCLA beat Michael Jordan's UNC in the title game in which we only allowed a max of one team from each century per school. We then created another 50 teams and Paul Pierce' Kansas Mateen Cleaves Michigan State for the second title. Those two were not included in the first batch because I had gone with Wilt Chamberlain's Kansas team and Magic Johnson's Michigan State team. On the women's side Pat Summit's Tennessee beat Notre Dame for the title.

The lopsided win for Rutgers leaves them ranked only behind #14 Duke with Justise Winslow and the last two national champions - #21 defending National Champ UConn with Adama Sanogo and the previous champion Kansas with Ochai Agbaji. Below are pictures of tonight's game in action, as well as the box score. Instructions for playing your own match-ups appear at the bottom of the blog.







On the box score, keep in mind the game starts at 20-20 with the assumption all 10 player have already played 11 possessions each, However, because Rutgers has a +7 on tempo, there were 51 possessions played in this game, with the starters playing half (actually 4 of the extra 7). Horace Grant is the only player with the max Stamina of 44 on either team, so with the extra 4 that gives him the 48 possessions listed. However, this would really amount to 59 with the extra 11 from the beginning 20-20 tie. Lastly, while we say we play 44 possessions, in the final five minutes any position that starts with either team being fouled or a fast break off a steal creates and extra possession below the line in the far right column - and that happened five times in this game so really that was an extra 5 possessions for Grant and in real terms he would have played 64 of 68 possessions in this game. However, it is listed as 48 for the reasons in this paragraph.

Clemson 1987                   Poss      Starter   Pts    Reb   Stls   Blks   Fouls   
Grayson Marshall441-PG72203
Michael Tait442-SG83301
Jerry Pryor383-SF154025
Horace Grant484-PF1710111
Elden Campbell225-C108011
Clemson 1987PossBenchPtsRebStlsBlksFouls
Larry Middleton151-PG61002
Michael Brown202-SG41001
Tim Kincaid83-SF23011
Ricky Jones84-PF21001
Anthony Jenkins295-C61001
Clemson Totals51 77346517
        
Rutgers 1976PossStarterPtsRebStlsBlksFouls
Eddie Jordan401-PG184201
Mike Dabney452-SG164321
Phil Sellers473-SF245205
Hollis Copeland414-PF126144
James Bailey335-C440102
Rutgers 1976PossBenchPtsRebStlsBlksFouls
Steve Hefele111-PG82003
Mark Conlin92-SG41001
Jeff Kleinbaum83-SF33001
Mike Palko84-PF22001
Abdel Anderson255-C65001
Rutgers Totals51 973681620

This blog contains everything you need to play the Value Add Basketball Game. We added a couple of dozen teams, several from 2022 and 2023, and broke the teams into four lists because the file was opening and printing slowly for some people. Start by choosing two teams to play, click on the appropriate link below, and print the page number indicated for the team.

Click on the all-time great women's teams (we are just starting to have enough stats to make women's cards based on the great work by basketball reference, and will keep adding more teams as they fill in stats.

Men's Teams:

List A - Alabama 1977 to Georgia Tech 2004 (accidentally put UCF here under "Central Florida" for now




Images of 10 New Value Add Basketball Teams for Printing

We did finish calculated the 10 new teams so that every basketball program in one of the power conferences for 2024 is now represented. That Rutgers 1976 team does look to be the best of the 10. The do appear alphabetically with the other teams on the free Value Add Basketball Game, but you can also click on the image below to print any one of them if that is easier than google docs for you.

The new Rutgers and Virginia Tech teams played before the 3-point line. We use a standard formula by position to break down those players shots and misses into 2-point and 3-point makes and misses. We do then adjust for some famous players for whom there is footage of long shots (eg Pistol Pete at LSU).

We also look at NBA 3-pointers for players who had the line for their pro careers. For example the Rutgers made few or no 3-pointers in the NBA. Virginia Tech's Dell Curry hit more than 40 percent of his 3-pointers from the NBA line over a long career - 
and he seemed to pass on some pretty good shooting genes to Stephen as well, so maybe a 1986 Virginia Tech vs 2008 Davidson father son shootout may be in the future.

The following is the top of that blow with the links: 

This blog contains everything you need to play the Value Add Basketball Game. We added a couple of dozen teams, several from 2022 and 2023, and broke the teams into four lists because the file was opening and printing slowly for some people. Start by choosing two teams to play, click on the appropriate link below, and print the page number indicated for the team.

Click on the all-time great women's teams (we are just starting to have enough stats to make women's cards based on the great work by basketball reference, and will keep adding more teams as they fill in stats.

Men's Teams:

List A - Alabama 1977 to Georgia Tech 2004 (accidentally put UCF here under "Central Florida" for now




Your teams will look something like this, 10 players to a team with the starters in the top row. The are the teams that won our first tournaments - John Wooden's 1972 UCLA team featuring Bill Walton and Pat Summitt's 1998 Tennessee team featuring Tamika Catchings. 























Saturday, January 7, 2023

Best 25 College Basketball Teams on the Road

Look for the feature story on the CBS Sports Site Dodds on Sports that will run down the top road teams in the country.



This blog is a link for anyone who wants to look further down the list of the best road teams this year, or for the fellow stat geeks who want to read the way kenpom calculations are made - below these lists.
 
RnkTop 25 Road WarriorsSoS         WinsLoss  MarginAway kenpom
1Kansas20.33015.0              35.3
2Houston13.33019.032.3
3UCLA14.04016.830.8
4Alabama19.0309.028.0
5Tennessee12.72114.026.7
6UConn18.8225.324.0
7Oklahoma St.16.8226.823.5
8Rutgers24.712-2.322.3
9Marquette17.6323.621.2
10West Virginia16.2234.020.2
11Providence11.8418.019.8
12Kansas St.16.5223.019.5
13Purdue14.3305.019.3
14San Diego St.10.7308.719.3
15Wisconsin20.721-1.319.3
16Creighton27.703-8.319.3
17Gonzaga16.3414.419.2
18Xavier11.5407.318.8
19Virginia15.0223.818.8
20Missouri18.0210.018.0
21Penn St.18.712-0.718.0
22Seton Hall23.024-6.316.7
23Utah St.5.73010.716.3
24New Mexico10.5315.516.0
25Auburn12.3122.715.0
       
RnkOthers QualifiedSoSWinsLossMarginAway kenpom
26Indiana24.013-9.314.8
27Memphis16.513-1.814.8
28Iowa St.19.321-4.714.7
29Clemson10.5313.814.3
30Utah10.8313.314.0
31FL Atlantic5.4417.613.0
32Sam Houston St.11.3531.112.4
33North Carolina15.813-3.512.3
34Washington St.14.917-6.18.8
35Nebraska17.224-9.57.7
36Va Tech10.003-3.07.0
37Kentucky24.703-18.76.0
38Weber St.8.925-5.43.4
39Southern Illinois4.544-1.43.1
40Colorado St.16.214-13.23.0
41Duke12.312-11.31.0
42Northwestern St.6.845-8.9-2.1
       
RnkOnly 1 or 2 road gamesSoSWinsLossMarginAway kenpom
 Texas20.5205.526.0
 Saint Mary's24.511-1.023.5
 Ohio St.19.5113.523.0
 TCU20.0202.522.5
 Oklahoma18.002-0.517.5
 Arizona17.511-3.014.5
 Texas Tech20.001-6.014.0
 Arkansas17.511-8.09.5
 Illinois18.002-9.09.0
 Baylor22.502-20.52.0

These would be the standings (give or take a rounding error) if teams were rated using Ken Pomeroy's method but only based on the road games they played this year. Too often a team looks really dominant at home in a few early games, and then cannot handle hostile crowds. On the flip side, the teams that can handle the pressure of a hostile crowd seem more likely to handle the pressure of March Madness.

The 42 teams we did calculated fit one of two categories:

1. One of the 30 teams who were both in the overall www.kenpom.com Top 40 AND played at least three road games, or

2. One of the 12 teams who are not in www.kenpom.com top 40 but have won a road game at a Top 40 team AND have played at least three road games.

It is very unlikely any other teams we did not calculate would be in the Top 20.

There are 10 teams who are in the top 40 at www.kenpom.com but have NOT played three road games yet, so we list them at the bottom. The Texas Longhorns ranking of 26.0 in the bottom set of teams would rank them 6th in our road Top 25, but based on only two games we want to wait until they get their tough road tests in Big 12 player shortly.

How we simulated KenPom's rankings:

SoS - the strength of schedule is the average www.kenpom.com AdjME for the team's road games today rounded to the nearest number. The number on this table is then increased by +4 to give credit for the four point edge to the home team opponent, and we did include "semi-road" games but in that case only two points were added to the SoS.

For example, our #1 road team Kansas played road games at Missouri, West Virginia and Texas Tech, and those three teams average a 16.3 AdjEM at www.kenpom.com. However, because these are all true road games, we add +4 to each and the average comes out to 20.3. 

Not only did Kansas beat all three, but they averaged beating them by 15.0 points, so the kenpom system adds the SoS and the margin of the scores, and together the www.kenpom.com rating if only road games were counted would be 35.3 - making Kansas the best team in the country in this small sample.