The last double digit underdog to play their Value Add Basketball Game Value Add Basketball Game debut won to make the group 14-79, a little better than the 9.3 wins we would expect from double digit underdogs we would expect in 93 such games, but perhaps not that big a surprise for anyone who watched the Indiana Ladies this season.
The two teams that came closest to beating undefeated South Carolina during the 2024 season were Tennessee (one point loss) and this Indiana team (75-79 loss).
Indiana also had dominant double digit wins against that Tennessee team (71-57) as well as a late season destruction of Caitlin Clark and Iowa (86-69). Given those three results it shouldn't come as a big surprise they were able to upset the 2012 runners up from Notre Dame - which lost to Baylor in the title game that year, 61-80.
Yarden Garzon hit five of six 3-pointers in the real season upset of Tennessee, and she hit a couple of 3-pointers in this one as well and grabbed 8 rebounds with 15 points in the simulated game win over Notre Dame 2012.
Sara Scalia led the simulated game with a game-high 19 points in the win over Notre Dame. In the real season she outscored Caitlin Clark despite taking barely half as many shots - going 7 of 14 while frustrating Clark for an 8 of 26 night for a dominant 86-69 win.
While there have been a few more big upsets in the game than real life, overall the underdog has won exactly how many would be expected over these first 290 games - 80 wins - as shown on the table below.
We only have seven debut games left, and there are no more big underdogs. One of those seven features teams that are exactly even, while the other six have only slight favorites as shown below. The box score of our game is at the bottom.
| VABG Double Digit Underdogs | Final | Heavy Underdogs | Expected Upsets | Actual Upsets | kenpom 10% chance (ave 14.5 pts) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st 88 double digit underdogs | 88 | 8.8 | 12 | 12-76 record in 1st 88 | |
| Oklahoma 2010 vs Tex 1986 | L 66-76 | 89 | 8.9 | 12 | Abi Olajuwon |
| Marquette 2019 vs. TN 1989 | W 68-64 | 90 | 9 | 13 | "Natisha Hiedeman |
| " | |||||
| Arizona 2021 vs. La Tech 1988 | L 64-80 | 91 | 9.1 | 13 | Aari McDonald |
| Rutgers 1988 vs Auburn 1989 | L 62-66 | 92 | 9.2 | 13 | Sue Wicks |
| Indiana 2024 vs. ND 2012 | W78-70 | 93 | 9.3 | 14 | MacKenzie Holmes |
| VABG Medium (7-9 pt) underdogs | Medium Underdogs | Expected Upsets | Actual Upsets | kenpom 23% chance upset | |
| 1st 48 Medium Underdogs | 48 | 11 | 11 | 11-37 record in 1st 48 | |
| VABG Slight (1-6 pt) underdogs | Slight Underdogs | Expected Upsets | Actual Upsets | kenpom 40% chance upset | |
| 1st 148 slight underdogs (1-6 pts) | 148 | 59.2 | 54 | 54-94 record in 1st 148 games | |
| Vanderbilt 2002 vs OSU 1993 | W 76-65 | 149 | 59.6 | 55 | Chantelle Anderson |
| North Carolina 2007 vs. ODU 1997 | 150 | 60 | TBD | Ivory Latta | |
| Louisville 2009 vs. ODU 1985 | 151 | 60.4 | TBD | Angel McCoughtry | |
| LSU 2005 vs. Kentucky 2013 | 152 | 60.8 | TBD | Sylvia Fowles, Seimone Augustus | |
| Colorado St. 1999 vs. Stan 2012 | 153 | 61.2 | TBD | Becky Hammon | |
| NC State 2024 vs. MD 2006 | 154 | 61.6 | TBD | Aziaha James | |
| Rutgers 2005 vs MSU 2005 | 155 | 62 | 55 to 61 | Cappie Poindexter | |
| Total Underdog Record | 290 | 79.8 | 80 | 78-207 record in 1st 285 games | |
| 21 even games (no favorite) | 21 | 21 | kenpom 50% no favorite |
| Indiana 2024 | Pts | 3pt | 2pt | FT | Att | Reb | Stl | Blk | Fl | Ht, Pts, Reb, Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chloe Moore-McNeil | 6 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5'11, 10.2, 3.6, 5.0 |
| Sara Scalia | 19 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5'10, 16.3, 3.8, 2.4 |
| Yarden Garzon | 15 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6'3, 11.7, 4.4, 3.1 |
| Sydney Parrish | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6'2, 10.8, 6.0, 2.3 |
| MacKenzie Holmes | 13 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6'3, 19.8, 6.8, 1.4 |
| Bench | Pts | 3pt | 2pt | FT | Att | Reb | Stl | Blk | Fl | Ht, Pts, Reb, Ast |
| Lexus Bargesser | 10 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5'9, 4.3, 2.7, 2.8 |
| Lenée Beaumont | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6'1, 3.0, 0.7, 0.6 |
| Julianna LaMendola | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6'1, 1.8, 1.9, 0.7 |
| Henna Sandvik | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6'0, 0.9, 0.7, 0.5 |
| Lilly Meister | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6'3, 3.7, 2.7, 0.3 |
| 78 | 3 | 30 | 9 | 11 | 27 | 5 | 3 | 18 | ||
| Notre Dame 2012 | Pts | 3pt | 2pt | FT | Att | Reb | Stl | Blk | Fl | Ht, Pts, Reb, Ast |
| Skylar Diggins | 10 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5'9, 16.8, 3.3, 5.7 |
| Brittany Mallory | 11 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5'10, 5.8, 2.7, 2.3 |
| Natalie Novosel | 8 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5'11, 15.2, 4.1, 2.0 |
| Kayla McBride | 6 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5'11, 11.6, 4.6, 1.7 |
| Devereaux Peters | 10 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6'2, 11.8, 9.3, 2.1 |
| Bench | Pts | 3pt | 2pt | FT | Att | Reb | Stl | Blk | Fl | Ht, Pts, Reb, Ast |
| Kaila Turner | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5'8, 3.4, 1.2, 0.9 |
| Whitney Holloway | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5'4, 1.0, 0.9, 0.7 |
| Fraderica Miller | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5'10, 1.9, 2.5, 0.9 |
| Natalie Achonwa | 12 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6'3, 7.6, 4.4, 1.4 |
| Markisha Wright | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6'2, 3.3, 2.1, 0.3 |
| 19 Turnovers | 70 | 4 | 22 | 14 | 16 | 28 | 8 | 5 | 15 |
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