Statis-Pro Chart for Runners Taking Extra Base in 2023

We wanted our Statis-Pro games to reflect the fact that baserunners are not only stealing more bases, but coming home from 2nd base very regularly. This is the result of Major League Baseball making bases larger and closer together, and even the shift rules making outfielders run further to field some singles that can not longer be cutoff by an infielder playing in the outfielder, we adjusted the extra base chart.

The following players have taken an extra base the majority of times on base regardless of situation; Tim Anderson (CWS), Andrew Benintendi (CWS), Rafael Devers (Bos), Mauricio Dubón (Hou), Ty France (Sea), Adolis García (Tex), Gunnar Henderson (Bal), Aaron Hicks (Bal), Aaron Judge (NYY), Steven Kwan (Cle), Zach McKinstry (Det), Whit Merrifield (Tor), Jeremy Peña (Hou), Luis Robert Jr. (CWS), Julio Rodríguez (Sea), Marcus Semien (Tex), Myles Straw (Cle), Leody Taveras (Tex), Kyle Tucker (Hou), Daulton Varsho (Tor) and Alex Verdugo (Bos).

That Statis-Pro game uses a chart matching a baserunners On Base Rating (OBR) from A (fastest) to E (slowest) against the throwing arm of the outfielder from T5 (best arm) to T2 (weakest arm).

The following are the updated charts for any player trying to score from 2nd base on a single or from 1st base on a double, or trying to go from 1st to 3rd base on a single.

The problem with the charts when the game first game out is that the percentage of runners thrown out were much too high. I adjusted the charts several years ago to reflect that runners made it 1st to 3rd base on a single only 30% of the time, but were also only thrown out 1% of the time. Clearly the most common results was the runner had no chance even if you wanted to try for the base, so held.

This season the overall average range on which a runners should be thrown out if he tried to take the extra base every time is 86-88 (out of 11-88) going 2nd to home, 87-88 on 1st to home on a double, or only on an 88 going 1st to 3rd. The big difference now is the overall average of making it from 2nd to home on a single would be 11-57, leaving 58-85 as ranges on which the player would stop at 3rd base.

We make both the advance range and the out range bigger since players would not always try for the extra base. We keep the same "Out" range we've used for years - 81-88 if the outfielder is a T5, 83-88 if T4, 85-88 if a T3 and 87-88 if a T2. 

Here are the new charts, followed by optional adjustments based on the type of hit and if there are two outs, and then the actual number of times each thing has happened as of July 4, 2023.

The earlier adjustment we made for stolen bases was simply using the existing charts, but if the player would have been caught stealing and the Random Number was ODD, then he just held the base and was not able to get a break to steal. That takes the stolen base success percentage from 64% to 82%, which is the actual change in Major League Baseball this season.

2nd to home on 1b	T2	T3	T4	T5
OBR A	11'-87 / out 88	11'-77 / out 85-88	11'-67 / out 83-88	11'-57 / out 81-88
OBR B	11'-77 / out 87-88	11'-67 / out 85-88	11'-57 / out 83-88	11'-47 / out 81-88
OBR C	11'-67 / out 87-88	11'-57 / out 85-88	11'-47 / out 83-88	11'-37 / out 81-88
OBR D	11'-57 / out 87-88	11'-47 / out 85-88	11'-37 / out 83-88	11'-27 / out 81-88
OBR E	11'-47 / out 87-88	11'-37 / out 85-88	11'-27 / out 83-88	11'-17 / out 81-88
1st to home on 2b	T2	T3	T4	T5
OBR A	11'-73 / out 87-88	11'-63 / out 85-88	11'-53 / out 83-88	11'-43 / out 81-88
OBR B	11'-63 / out 87-88	11'-53 / out 85-88	11'-43 / out 83-88	11'-33 / out 81-88
OBR C	11'-53 / out 87-88	11'-43 / out 85-88	11'-33 / out 83-88	11'-23 / out 81-88
OBR D	11'-43 / out 87-88	11'-33 / out 85-88	11'-23 / out 83-88	11'-13 / out 81-88
OBR E	11'-33 / out 87-88	11'-23 / out 85-88	11'-13 / out 83-88	Cannot attempt
1st to 3B on 1B9	T2	T3	T4	T5
OBR A	11'-73 / out 87-88	11'-63 / out 85-88	11'-53 / out 83-88	11'-43 / out 81-88
OBR B	11'-63 / out 87-88	11'-53 / out 85-88	11'-43 / out 83-88	11'-33 / out 81-88
OBR C	11'-53 / out 87-88	11'-43 / out 85-88	11'-33 / out 83-88	11'-23 / out 81-88
OBR D	11'-43 / out 87-88	11'-33 / out 85-88	11'-23 / out 83-88	11'-13 / out 81-88
OBR E	11'-33 / out 87-88	11'-23 / out 85-88	11'-13 / out 83-88	Cannot attempt
1st to 3B on 1B8	T2	T3	T4	T5
OBR A	11'-63 / out 87-88	11'-53 / out 85-88	11'-43 / out 83-88	11'-33 / out 81-88
OBR B	11'-53 / out 87-88	11'-43 / out 85-88	11'-33 / out 83-88	11'-23 / out 81-88
OBR C	11'-43 / out 87-88	11'-33 / out 85-88	11'-23 / out 83-88	11'-13 / out 81-88
OBR D	11'-33 / out 87-88	11'-23 / out 85-88	11'-13 / out 83-88	Cannot attempt
OBR E	11'-23 / out 87-88	11'-13 / out 85-88	Cannot attempt	Cannot attempt
1st to 3B on 1B7	T2	T3	T4	T5
OBR A	11'-53 / out 87-88	11'-43 / out 85-88	11'-33 / out 83-88	11'-23 / out 81-88
OBR B	11'-43 / out 87-88	11'-33 / out 85-88	11'-23 / out 83-88	11'-13 / out 81-88
OBR C	11'-33 / out 87-88	11'-23 / out 85-88	11'-13 / out 83-88	Cannot attempt
OBR D	11'-23 / out 87-88	11'-13 / out 85-88	Cannot attempt	Cannot attempt
OBR E	11'-13 / out 87-88	Cannot attempt	Cannot attempt	Cannot attempt

Decide before the game if you want these optional adjustments to the ranges above.

Optional Adjustments	Use 1st that applies	if 0 or 1 outs	if 2 outs
Regular Hit	any odd number RN	Same	add 20
Texas Leaguer	can divide RN by 12	add 40	add 60
Bloop	can divide RN by 4	add 20	add 40
Line Drive	can divide RN by 2	subtract 20	Same

The numbers above are based on these numbers.

Random Number 11-88	1st to 3rd on 1B	2nd to home on single	1st to home on double
Advances Extra Base	11-33	11-57	11-43
Only advances same as hitter	34-87	58-85	44-86
Out trying to Advance	88	86-88	87-88
Based on actual occurances through 7/4	1st to 3rd on 1B	2nd to home on single	1st to home on double
Advances Extra Base	2524	2887	1062
Only advances same as hitter	5691	1707	1420
Out trying to Advance	109	191	62

Below are the Clutch Defensive Charts so you have them in one place.

C-CD (Catcher)	CD1	CD2	CD3	CD4	CD5
Foul Out	11'-18	12'-18	11'-38	11'-48	11'-58
Passed Ball	21-58	31-58	41-58	51-58	61-64
Infield single	61-88	61-78	61-68	61-64	65-66
Lead runner out		81-88	71-88	65-88	67-88
1st Base & 3rd Base	CD1	CD2	CD3	CD4	CD5
Line Out, Lead Runner Doubled off	11'-18	11'-28	11'-38	11'-48	11'-58
Grounder, lead runner thrown out even if no force	21-28	31-48	41-58	51-68	61-78
Line Drive single, advance 2 bases	31-58	51-68	61-78	71-84	81-88
Double down line, runners score	61-88	71-88	81-88	85-88
Shortstop, 2nd Base or Pitcher	CD1	CD2	CD3	CD4	CD5
Line Out, Lead Runner Doubled off	11'-18	28-Nov	11'-38	11'-48	11'-58
Grounder, lead runner thrown out even if no force	21-28	31-48	41-58	51-68	51-78
Hard Grounder through for Single, runners advance 2 bases	31-88	51-88	61-68	71-88	81-88
Outfielder	CD1	CD2	CD3	CD4	CD5
Line Out, Lead Runner Doubled off	None	None	11'-14	11'-18	11'-24
Nice catch of line drive, runners hold	11'-18	11'-28	15-38	21-48	25-48
Nice catch of deep drive, runner on 2nd and/or 3rd advance	21-28	31-48	41-58	51-68	51-78
Line drive single, advance 1 base	31-58	51-68	61-78	71-84	81-88
Line drive double, runners score	61-78	71-82	81-86	85-88
Line drive triple	81-88	83-88	87-88

Here is the updated Steal Chart.

 

Results (not odd RN never out stealing, worst case holds)	Steal 2b	Steal 3b
Steal unless SP: E	11'-14	11'-14
Steal if AAA, AA, A, B or C	15-23	15-17
Steal if AAA, AA, A or B	24-32	18-28
Steal if AAA, AA or A	33-46	31-38
Runner Out Stealing (odd number holds)	47-52	41-52
Runner Out if Catcher TA or TB (steal if TC, if out on odd RN holds)	53-56	53-55
Runner Out if Catcher TA (steal if TB or TC, if out on odd RN holds)	57-63	56-61
Holds, cannot get break	64-68	62-67
TA picks off catcher, otherwise hold	71-71	68-68
TA or TB picks off catcher, otherwise hold	72-72	71-71
Steal if AAA or AA	73-78	72-76
Steal if AAA	81-88	77-82
Runner Holds		83-88

Here are the Z-Plays so you have all in one place.