ODU 1997 that fell to All-Time Greatest Team (Tennessee late 90s) Moves Up to 12th All-time with VABG Win Over UNC 2007

 A couple of 20th century teams were upset recently in their Value Add Basketball GameValue Add Basketball Game debuts against all-time great teams, but the Old Dominion 1997 team pulled away from UNC 2007 by a 85-69 to move up to No. 12 in our all-time rankings. 

Like Caitlin Clark's breakthrough 2024 title game against South Carolina, the 1997 title game 1997 title game stunned the world by outdrawing the men's title (which happened to be the last Pac-12 men's title (Arizona). 

This was the true changing of the guard in a great game between the last of the mid-major dynasty teams (Louisiana Tech, ODU, Long Beach State) before Tennessee and then other big programs took over. This game came down to the final few minutes before the Vols defeated ODU for their 2nd of three straight titles. We rank the real Tennessee team from the next year - 1998 - as the greatest team in history right now and do not use teams with overlapping players and thus do not have the actual 1996 and 1997 team in the game.

This ODU team that almost beat them ranks just 11 spots further back at #12 all-time in the game, though this does not count the overlapping teams, so this ODU team would actually rank 26th if you could these there Tennessee teams, then the UConn 2000, 2002,  2003 and 2004 etc. on the rankings below.

    

Rnk	Team (other top 50 team yrs)	W	L	Score	Allow	Best Players (rank if top 40 all-time)
1	Tennessee 1998 (1996, 1997)	4	0	76.3	64.0	Tamika Catchings, Chamique Holdsclaw., No. 1, 21 best
2	Connecticut 2002 (2000, 2003, 2004)	1	0	75.0	46.0	Sue Bird, Diana Taurasi, 3, 7 best
3	Tennessee 2007 (2008)	1	0	89.0	70.0	Candace Parker, 10 best
4	Texas 1986	1	0	76.0	66.0	Clarissa Davis, 40 best
5	Louisiana Tech 1982	3	1	76.0	67.5	Pam Kelly., 11 best
6	South Carolina 2024 (2023)	1	0	84.0	55.0	Kamilla Cardoso
7	Connecticut 1995	1	0	81.0	57.0	Nykesha Sales, Rebecca Lobo, 31, 37 bests
8	Connecticut 2016 (2014, 2015, 2017, 2018)	1	1	80.0	64.5	Maya Moore, Katie Lou Samuelson, 2, 22 best
9	Notre Dame 2018	3	1	76.3	72.8	Arike Ogunbowales
10	Connecticut 2010 (2009, 2011, 2013)	2	1	73.3	73.3	Breanna Stewart, 4 best
11	USC 1983 (1984)	2	1	72.0	63.3	Cheryl Miller, Cynthia Cooper, 9, 25 best
12	Old Dominion 1997	1	0	85.0	69.0	Ticha Penicheiro
13	Stanford 2021	1	1	79.0	72.5	Kiana Williams
14	Louisiana Tech 1988 (1990)	1	0	80.0	64.0	Teresa Weatherspoon
15	LSU 2023	1	0	89.0	61.0	Angel Reese, 23 best
16	Baylor 2012 (2011, 2013)	1	1	73.5	77.0	Kalani Brown
17	Tennessee 1989 (1987, 1991)	0	1	64.0	68.0	Bridgette Gordon
18	Iowa 2024	1	0	84.0	64.0	Caitlin Clark, 8 best
19	Auburn 1989	1	0	66.0	62.0	Carolyn Jones
20	Notre Dame 2012 (2014)	0	1	70.0	78.0	Kylar Diggins
21	Baylor 2019 (2017, 2018, 2020)	1	1	74.0	73.0	Brittney Griner, 6 best
22	Oregon 2019 (2020)	0	1	81.0	84.0	Sabrina Ionescu, 14 best
23	Texas A&M 2011	0	1	69.0	76.0	Danielle Adams
24	Vanderbilt 2002	1	0	76.0	65.0	Chantelle Anderson
25	Notre Dame 2001	1	0	80.0	76.0	Ruth Riley, 32 best
26	Mississippi State 2018	0	1	58.0	74.0	Victoria Vivans
27	Virginia 1991	1	0	76.0	72.0	Dawn Staley, 20 best
28	Old Dominion 1985	0	1	68.0	74.0	Adrienne Goodson
29	Maryland 2006	0	0			Crystal Langhorne
30	Ohio State 1993	0	1	65.0	76.0	Katie Smith, 27 best
31	Marquette 2019	1	0	68.0	64.0	Chloe Marotta, Natisha Hiedeman
32	Indiana 2024	1	0	78.0	70.0	MacKenzie Holmes
33	Old Dominion 1980	0	1	55.0	80.0	Nancy Lieberman, 12 best
34	Michigan St. 2005	0	0			Liz Shimek
35	LSU 2005	0	0			Sylvia Fowles, Seimone Augustus, 39, 34 best
36	South Carolina 2017 (2019)	1	1	69.0	73.5	A'ja Wilson, 5 best
37	Duke 2006	0	1	66.0	75.0	Alison Bales
38	UCLA 2018	1	0	71.0	63.0	Monique Billings
39	NC State 2024	0	0			Aziaha James
40	Rutgers 2005	0	0			Cappie Pondexter, 36 best
41	Louisville 2009	0	0	74.0	68.0	Angel McCoughtry, 38 best
42	Stanford 2012	0	0			Nnemkadi Ogwumike, 24 best
43	Washington 2017	0	1	57.0	64.0	Kelsey Plum, 15 best
44	Louisville 2014	0	1	69.0	76.0	Shoni Schimmel
45	Kentucky 2013	0	0			DeNesha Stallworth
46	Georgia 2013	0	1	70.0	89.0	Jasmine James
47	Oklahoma 2010	0	1	66.0	76.0	Abi Olajuwon
48	Texas Tech 1993	0	0			Sheryl Swoopes, 18 best
49	Colorado St. 1999	0	0			Becky Hammon, 19 best
50	Rutgers 1988	0	1	62.0	66.0	Sue Wicks, 29 best
51	Oklahoma 2002	0	0			Stacey Dales
52	Virginia Tech 2024	0	1	76.0	80.0	Elizabeth Kitley
53	USC 1994	0	1	63.0	71.0	Lisa Leslie, Tina Thompson, 26, 33 best
54	Texas 2018	0	1	62.0	84.0	Ariel Atkins
55	Minnesota 2004	0	1	72.0	76.0	Lindsay Whalen, 30 best
56	Ohio State 2016	0	1	68.0	79.0	Kelsey Mitchell
57	Long Beach State 1987	0	1	53.0	98.0	Penny Toler, Cindy Brown, 17, 28 best
58	North Carolina 2007	0	1	69.0	85.0	Ivory Latta, 35 best
59	Arizona 2021	0	1	64.0	80.0	Aari McDonald
60	Penn State 2012	0	1	64.0	84.0	Maggie Lucas
61	Purdue 2003	0	1	61.0	89.0	Shereka Wright
62	Delaware 2013	0	1	46.0	75.0	Elena Delle Donne, 13 best
63	Virginia 2018	0	1	57.0	81.0	Dominique Toussaint
64	Auburn 2009	0	1	55.0	84.0	Keke Carrier, DeWanna Bonner

Ticha Penicheiro scored 16 points as the point guard, and combined with the two bigs and leading scorers in 6'5 Clarisse Machanguana (16 points) and 6'4 Nyree Roberts (20 points) took over to pull away. The scoresheet is pasted below the updated all-time rankings. Only 10 teams have yet to play in the game.

Not Having to Face UConn, Louisville ladies top ODU

 ODU won the NCAA tournament in 1985, while Louisville finished 2nd in the Big East, lost the BIG East title game, and lost the NCAA title game.

Note - our apologies, we noticed a couple of the women's team sheets were coming up as requiring an access request. You should be able to access all now.

Of course, all three of those runner up finishes were to the 39-0 UConn team in the midst of dominating women's hoops. If the Cardinals could have beaten anyone else, they may have been right. In our Value Add Basketball game Angel McCoughtry dominated with 22 points, 5 steals, 8 rebounds and 2 blocked shots to advance 74-68 over ODU.

We did catch two mistakes on the two of Louisville's reserves - very minor but we had some missed 2 points shots and missed 3 points shots so corrected that as shown in the photo.

Indiana 2024 Team that Crushed Caitlin Clark & Tennessee and Gave SC Scare - stuns ND in our Game

The last double digit underdog to play their Value Add Basketball Game Value Add Basketball Game debut won to make the group 14-79, a little better than the 9.3 wins we would expect from double digit underdogs we would expect in 93 such games, but perhaps not that big a surprise for anyone who watched the Indiana Ladies this season.

The two teams that came closest to beating undefeated South Carolina during the 2024 season were Tennessee (one point loss) and this Indiana team (75-79 loss). 

Indiana also had dominant double digit wins against that Tennessee team (71-57) as well as a late season destruction of Caitlin Clark and Iowa (86-69). Given those three results it shouldn't come as a big surprise they were able to upset the 2012 runners up from Notre Dame - which lost to Baylor in the title game that year, 61-80.

Yarden Garzon hit five of six 3-pointers in the real season upset of Tennessee, and she hit a couple of 3-pointers in this one as well and grabbed 8 rebounds with 15 points in the simulated game win over Notre Dame 2012.

Sara Scalia led the simulated game with a game-high 19 points in the win over Notre Dame. In the real season she outscored Caitlin Clark despite taking barely half as many shots - going 7 of 14 while frustrating Clark for an 8 of 26 night for a dominant 86-69 win.

While there have been a few more big upsets in the game than real life, overall the underdog has won exactly how many would be expected over these first 290 games - 80 wins - as shown on the table below.

We only have seven debut games left, and there are no more big underdogs. One of those seven features teams that are exactly even, while the other six have only slight favorites as shown below. The box score of our game is at the bottom.

VABG Double Digit Underdogs	Final	Heavy Underdogs	Expected Upsets	Actual Upsets	kenpom 10% chance (ave 14.5 pts)
1st 88 double digit underdogs		88	8.8	12	12-76 record in 1st 88
Oklahoma 2010 vs Tex 1986	L 66-76	89	8.9	12	Abi Olajuwon
Marquette 2019 vs. TN 1989	W 68-64	90	9	13	"Natisha Hiedeman
"
Arizona 2021 vs. La Tech 1988	L 64-80	91	9.1	13	Aari McDonald
Rutgers 1988 vs Auburn 1989	L 62-66	92	9.2	13	Sue Wicks
Indiana 2024 vs. ND 2012	W78-70	93	9.3	14	MacKenzie Holmes
VABG Medium (7-9 pt) underdogs		Medium Underdogs	Expected Upsets	Actual Upsets	kenpom 23% chance upset
1st 48 Medium Underdogs		48	11	11	11-37 record in 1st 48
VABG Slight (1-6 pt) underdogs		Slight Underdogs	Expected Upsets	Actual Upsets	kenpom 40% chance upset
1st 148 slight underdogs (1-6 pts)		148	59.2	54	54-94 record in 1st 148 games
Vanderbilt 2002 vs OSU 1993	W 76-65	149	59.6	55	Chantelle Anderson
North Carolina 2007 vs. ODU 1997		150	60	TBD	Ivory Latta
Louisville 2009 vs. ODU 1985		151	60.4	TBD	Angel McCoughtry
LSU 2005 vs. Kentucky 2013		152	60.8	TBD	Sylvia Fowles, Seimone Augustus
Colorado St. 1999 vs. Stan 2012		153	61.2	TBD	Becky Hammon
NC State 2024 vs. MD 2006		154	61.6	TBD	Aziaha James
Rutgers 2005 vs MSU 2005		155	62	55 to 61	Cappie Poindexter
Total Underdog Record		290	79.8	80	78-207 record in 1st 285 games
21 even games (no favorite)		21	21		kenpom 50% no favorite

Box Score.

 

Indiana 2024	Pts	3pt	2pt	FT	Att	Reb	Stl	Blk	Fl	Ht, Pts, Reb, Ast
Chloe Moore-McNeil	6	0	3	0	0	1	2	0	2	5'11, 10.2, 3.6, 5.0
Sara Scalia	19	0	9	1	1	3	2	0	1	5'10, 16.3, 3.8, 2.4
Yarden Garzon	15	2	3	3	4	8	0	0	2	6'3, 11.7, 4.4, 3.1
Sydney Parrish	7	1	1	2	2	4	0	0	3	6'2, 10.8, 6.0, 2.3
MacKenzie Holmes	13	0	5	3	4	4	1	3	4	6'3, 19.8, 6.8, 1.4
Bench	Pts	3pt	2pt	FT	Att	Reb	Stl	Blk	Fl	Ht, Pts, Reb, Ast
Lexus Bargesser	10	0	5	0	0	3	0	0	2	5'9, 4.3, 2.7, 2.8
Lenée Beaumont	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	6'1, 3.0, 0.7, 0.6
Julianna LaMendola	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	6'1, 1.8, 1.9, 0.7
Henna Sandvik	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	6'0, 0.9, 0.7, 0.5
Lilly Meister	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	6'3, 3.7, 2.7, 0.3
	78	3	30	9	11	27	5	3	18
Notre Dame 2012	Pts	3pt	2pt	FT	Att	Reb	Stl	Blk	Fl	Ht, Pts, Reb, Ast
Skylar Diggins	10	0	4	2	2	1	1	0	1	5'9, 16.8, 3.3, 5.7
Brittany Mallory	11	3	1	0	0	4	3	1	2	5'10, 5.8, 2.7, 2.3
Natalie Novosel	8	0	3	2	2	4	3	1	2	5'11, 15.2, 4.1, 2.0
Kayla McBride	6	0	2	2	2	4	1	0	2	5'11, 11.6, 4.6, 1.7
Devereaux Peters	10	0	4	2	4	8	0	3	1	6'2, 11.8, 9.3, 2.1
Bench	Pts	3pt	2pt	FT	Att	Reb	Stl	Blk	Fl	Ht, Pts, Reb, Ast
Kaila Turner	7	1	1	2	2	1	0	0	1	5'8, 3.4, 1.2, 0.9
Whitney Holloway	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	5'4, 1.0, 0.9, 0.7
Fraderica Miller	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	5'10, 1.9, 2.5, 0.9
Natalie Achonwa	12	0	4	4	4	3	0	0	3	6'3, 7.6, 4.4, 1.4
Markisha Wright	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	6'2, 3.3, 2.1, 0.3
19 Turnovers	70	4	22	14	16	28	8	5	15

ccc

Update All-Time 64 Women's Bracket After La Tech 1988 Bigs Dominate Arizona 2021, Wins Going Away 80-64

Update: Vandy 76, Ohio State 65 in Midwest action. Scroll to bottom for score sheet.

We are recording all results of our Value Add Basketball Game all-time championship between the 64 teams in the game. The following is a paragraph on each region with the games between debut teams and a link to each region's bracket:

In our all-time South Region Championship, Louisiana Tech's 1988 squad dominated the boards 42-27 to pull away from Arizona's 2021 surprise national runner-up 80-64. Three teams rotated in first place from late in the 1988 season through all of the 1989 and 1990 seasons - La Tech, Auburn and Tennessee - but the win moved La Tech ahead of the other two in the game and to 14th all-time in our game. The Vols were stunned and Auburn barely survived in previous games to let La Tech pass them both.

In the West Region, debut games results included Texas (1986) 76, Oklahoma (2010) 66  and UCLA (2018) 71, USC (1994) 63.  Stanford 2012 vs. Colorado State 1999 is the last game of teams who have not played in addition to the other five first round games to be played.

In the East Region,  the closer-than-expected Auburn (1989) 66, Rutgers (1988) 62 game is one of four debut games. The women's NC State 2024 team was a big surprise just like the men and they will take on Maryland 2006. Old Dominion already has the first team in the game, and we add two more teams with their 1985 team plays Louisville 2009 and then their 1997 plays UNC 2007 in addition to four other games between teams who have already played Value Add Basketball Games. 

In the Midwest Region, it was the huge upset Marquette (2019) 68, Tennessee (1989) 64. three debut games remain including a new entry 2024 Indiana vs. Notre Dame 2012, Ohio State 1993 vs Vanderbilt 2002 and the seeding aligned two 2005 teams in Rutgers vs. Michigan State. The two did not actually play that year as Rutgers was still in the Big East and thus not yet in the Big Ten with the Spartans. There will be four other games in that bracket between teams who have played in our game.

Here is the box score form Louisiana Tech.

Pos	Arizona 2021	Pts	3pt	2pt	FT	Att	Reb	Stl	Blk	Fl	Ht, Pts, Reb, Ast
1-PG	Aari McDonald	23	3	7	0	0	5	4	1	3	5'6, 20.6, 5.4, 4.0
2-SG	Bendu Yeaney	9	0	3	3	4	2	1	4	1	5'10, 4.1, 3.1, 1.5
3-SF	Sam Thomas	4	0	2	0	0	4	0	2	4	6'0, 7.3, 3.4, 1.5
4-PF	Trinity Baptiste	8	0	2	4	4	6	1	1	1	6'0, 8.6, 6.1, 1.0
5-C	Cate Reese	8	0	2	2	2	5	0	0	2	6'2, 10.9, 5.1, 0.6
Pos	Bench	Pts	3pt	2pt	FT	Att	Reb	Stl	Blk	Fl	Ht, Pts, Reb, Ast
1-PG	Derin Erdogan	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	5'6, 1.0, 0.5, 0.4
2-SG	Shaina Pellington	4	0	2	0	0	1	0	0	2	5'8, 5.8, 1.9, 1.0
3-SF	Helena Pueyo	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	6'0, 3.7, 3.5, 1.3
4-PF	Lauren Ware	2	0	2	0	0	1	0	2	3	6'5, 3.9, 3.8, 0.3
5-C	Semaj Smith	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	6'6, 0.9, 1.2, 0.1
	16 Turnovers	64	3	23	9	10	27	6	10	19
Pos	La Tech 1988	Pts	3pt	2pt	FT	Att	Reb	Stl	Blk	Fl	Ht, Pts, Reb, Ast
1-PG	Teresa Weatherspoon	9	0	3	3	5	2	5	0	1	5'8, 9.1, 4.4, 6.0
2-SG	Angela Lawson	10	0	4	2	2	2	3	0	3	5'8, 11.2, 3.6, 3.9
3-SF	Erica Westbrooks	14	0	6	2	3	11	0	1	1	6'3, 14.6, 7.2, 1.2
4-PF	Nora Lewis	12	1	4	1	2	11	0	0	3	6'0, 13.6, 9.8, 1.5
5-C	Venus Lacy	17	0	8	1	1	8	0	3	2	6'4, 14.5, 9.2, 0.5
Pos	Bench	Pts	3pt	2pt	FT	Att	Reb	Stl	Blk	Fl	Ht, Pts, Reb, Ast
1-PG	Tatia Brown	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	5'10, 4.2, 0.4, 0.6
2-SG	Paulette Stall	4	0	2	0	0	1	1	0	1	5'10, 6.0, 2.9, 2.2
3-SF	Sheila Ethridge	6	0	1	4	4	2	0	0	1	5'8, 7.9, 3.5, 0.9
4-PF	Beanie Lincoln	4	0	2	0	0	2	0	0	1	5'11, 3.0, 2.2, 0.4
5-C	Jocelyn Watson	2	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	1	6'0, 4.3, 2.6, 0.4
	19 Turnovers	80	1	32	13	17	42	9	4	15

We still have nine games to play between 0-0 teams.

Vanderbilt upset Ohio State 76-65 - scoresheet at bottom

After this originally posted, the 2002 Vanderbilt team pulled a minor upset, 76-65, over the 1993 Ohio State team. Candy improved from 39th to 25th, while OSU fell from 29th to 45th in our all-time rankings.

OSU actually lost that year by 3 points at Vandy, and then both teams went to the final 4 but both lost in the semifinals. However, in a close call we went with this Vandy team from 9 years later for the game.

Vandy will face the Marquette 2019 team that pulled our biggest upset so far over Tennessee.

4-seed Auburn 1989 survives 10-0 run to hold off 13-seed Rutgers 1988

Pos	Auburn 1989	Pts	3pt	2pt	FT	Att	Reb	Stl	Blk	Fl	Ht, Pts, Reb, Ast
1-PG	Ruthie Bolton	4	0	2	0	0	6	2	0	2	5'8, 7.9, 4.2, 5.7
2-SG	Patrena Scruggs	19	0	9	1	1	6	1	0	2	5'9, 10.2, 4.6, 1.9
3-SF	Carolyn Jones	9	0	4	1	2	5	0	1	3	5'8, 14.5, 4.4, 1.7
4-PF	Linda Godby	6	0	3	0	0	4	0	1	1	6'5, 11.4, 4.8, 0.4
5-C	Vickie Orr	12	0	5	2	4	11	2	4	1	6'3, 15.9, 8.6, 0.4
Pos	Bench	Pts	3pt	2pt	FT	Att	Reb	Stl	Blk	Fl	Ht, Pts, Reb, Ast
1-PG	Lynn Stevenson	4	0	2	0	0	1	0	0	1	5'8, 2.2, 1.4, 1.7
2-SG	Chantel Tremitiere	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	5'6, 1.9, 1.7, 1.6
3-SF	Evelyn Thompson	4	0	2	0	0	2	0	0	1	5'9, 4.8, 2.0, 1.1
4-PF	Jocelyn McGilberry	4	0	2	0	0	3	0	0	1	6'0, 7.6, 6.3, 0.6
5-C	Kendall Mago	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	6'4, 3.3, 3.5, 0.3
	20 Turnovers	66	0	31	4	7	40	5	6	14
Pos	Rutgers 1988	Pts	3pt	2pt	FT	Att	Reb	Stl	Blk	Fl	Ht, Pts, Reb, Ast
1-PG	Janet Malouf	6	0	3	0	2	3	3	0	1	5'6, 6.4, 2.6, 5.9
2-SG	Telicher Austin	2	0	1	0	0	3	2	0	2	5'9, 13.5, 3.9, 3.6
3-SF	Sue Wicks	22	0	10	2	4	1	0	0	1	6'3, 25.6, 12.1, 2.6
4-PF	Vicky Picott	2	0	1	0	0	4	0	0	1	6'0, 11.4, 7.8, 1.3
5-C	Michelle Lender	18	0	9	0	0	8	2	0	3	6'2, 12.2, 5.2, 1.3
Pos	Bench	Pts	3pt	2pt	FT	Att	Reb	Stl	Blk	Fl	Ht, Pts, Reb, Ast
1-PG	Glorisa Catala	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	5'6, 3.3, 0.9, 1.0
2-SG	Jill Shildt	4	0	2	0	0	1	0	0	1	5'9, 3.7, 2.2, 1.8
3-SF	Suzanne Cooper	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	5'9, 2.8, 1.5, 1.0
4-PF	Lynn Ust	2	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	1	5'11, 5.2, 2.8, 1.6
5-C	Wendy Porter	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	6'1, 2.1, 2.3, 0.4
	11 Turnovers	58	0	28	2	6	25	7	0	13

Update: Auburn 1989 survived another scare by a double digit underdogs, after Rutgers went on a 10-0 fueled Sue Wicks of Rutgers 1988. Shot blockers Linda Godby and Vickie Orr held Rutgers back for most of the game to give Auburn a 46-42 lead, until the 10-0 run gave Rutgers a 52-56 lead.  However, Auburn survived 66-62 behind a double double by Vickie Orr (12 points, 11 rebounds) and Patrena Scruggs 19 points).

The closer-than-expected game drops Auburn from 14th to 21st in our all-time rankings, while Rutgers improved slightly from 50th to 47th. All ratings and games are tracked here. We temporarily posted incorrect info for this game because we had flipped the teams and their lay-up ranges for the game (had Rutgers with a 51-62 and Auburn with a 51-55 instead of the reverse). If that was the case then Rutgers would have won 66-62, but when we reran the die rolls with the corrected ranges is actually shifted to a mirror 66-62 Auburn win so they advance.

Here was the preview first.

Our next debut Value Add Basketball Game Value Add Basketball Game all-time match-up is from our Eastern Region bracket with the all-time 4-seed 1989 Auburn team playing a contemporary - the 13-seed Rutgers 1988.

 From the last few weeks of the 1987-88 season through the end of the 1989-90 season, either Tennessee, Louisiana Tech or Auburn was ranked No. 1 every week. Auburn not only beat those two great teams, but made the national championship game all three years.

In my book, making the national title game three years in a row is much more impressive than winning one title, so Auburn ranks as one of the greatest teams in history with the three straight national runners-up banners hanging in their arena even though they did not win any of the three title games.

Rutgers broke the top 10 for a few weeks during that time and goes in as a double digit (11-point) underdog. However, this game follows up a double digit upset by Marquette 2019 over one of those other three great teams from those three years (Tennessee 1989) to make double digit underdogs 13-76, so Rutgers will try to make it two straight big upsets.

Pos	Auburn 1989	Ht, Pts, Reb, Ast
1-PG	Ruthie Bolton	5'8, 7.9, 4.2, 5.7
2-SG	Patrena Scruggs	5'9, 10.2, 4.6, 1.9
3-SF	Carolyn Jones	5'8, 14.5, 4.4, 1.7
4-PF	Linda Godby	6'5, 11.4, 4.8, 0.4
5-C	Vickie Orr	6'3, 15.9, 8.6, 0.4
Pos	Bench	Ht, Pts, Reb, Ast
1-PG	Lynn Stevenson	5'8, 2.2, 1.4, 1.7
2-SG	Chantel Tremitiere	5'6, 1.9, 1.7, 1.6
3-SF	Evelyn Thompson	5'9, 4.8, 2.0, 1.1
4-PF	Jocelyn McGilberry	6'0, 7.6, 6.3, 0.6
5-C	Kendall Mago	6'4, 3.3, 3.5, 0.3
Pos	Rutgers 1988	Ht, Pts, Reb, Ast
1-PG	Janet Malouf	5'6, 6.4, 2.6, 5.9
2-SG	Telicher Austin	5'9, 13.5, 3.9, 3.6
3-SF	Sue Wicks	6'3, 25.6, 12.1, 2.6
4-PF	Vicky Picott	6'0, 11.4, 7.8, 1.3
5-C	Michelle Lender	6'2, 12.2, 5.2, 1.3
Pos	Bench	Ht, Pts, Reb, Ast
1-PG	Glorisa Catala	5'6, 3.3, 0.9, 1.0
2-SG	Jill Shildt	5'9, 3.7, 2.2, 1.8
3-SF	Suzanne Cooper	5'9, 2.8, 1.5, 1.0
4-PF	Lynn Ust	5'11, 5.2, 2.8, 1.6
5-C	Wendy Porter	6'1, 2.1, 2.3, 0.4

Extremely Accurate Value Add Basketball Games Yields 13th Double Digit Upset in 89 Games

 The Marquette vs Tennessee game was the 307th game we have played since inventing the Value Add Basketball Game in 2020. Click for all women's results or men's results and the teams updated rankings based on results.

So far the underdog is almost exactly as likely to pull and upset in a Value Add Basketball Game as they are in real college basketball games.

To determine the favorite in a game take the rating of one team and subtract from the rating of the other team (so if one team is a +7 and the opponent is a -3 rating above the cards, then the first team is a 10-point favorite). 

We play most games on a neutral site, but if you choose to make one team the home team, the adjust the point spread by 3 points in their favor and allow that team to change any die roll from 36 to 66 and vice versa. This recreates the average 2 to 3 more missed or false foul calls that go in the home teams advantage per actual game (in fact the home team might get 7 missed calls in their favor and the visiting team get 4 in their favor, but we just make it average 3 and 0 for the. Same effect).

In 21 of our 307 games played to date teams had the same rating, so in those games there is no favorite. The following table breaks down the results to date based on if a team is favored by 1 to 6 points, by 7 to 9 points or by double digits:

The Value Add Basketball Games proves perhaps the most accurate simulation game available through more than 300 games played since its invention.

The ratings of each team based on the cards compiled from each player's stats and level of competition and era factors provide a quick calculation of a predicted point spread between each two teams in a game.

So far, those spreads have proven extremely accurate.

In 148 games one team has been a narrow favorite (1 to 6 points, an average of 3.5 point favorite). Based on www.kenpom.com calculations, we would expect the favored team to win 60% and go 89-59. The favorites have done very slightly better, winning five more games than expected to go 94-54 so far.

In 48 games one team was favored by 7-9 points, which means www.kenpom.com would project the favorites would win 77% to go 37-11 and ... that is an exact. The Value Add favorites have gone exactly 37-11 in those games.

Finally in 89 Value Add Basketball Games one team has been favored by double digits - an average 14.6 point favorite, and in those games www.kenpom.com would predict the favorites would win 90% of their games to go 80-9 - but in fact there have been for more upsets than expected in those games to leave favorites 76-13.

Favorite	Wins	Losses	VABG Win%	Actual Basketball Win%
10 pts + (ave. 14.6)	76	13	85%	90% (real chance if 14.5 pt favorite)
7 to 9 points	37	11	77%	77% (exact match of real chance 8pt)
1 to 6 points	94	54	64%	60% (real chance if 3.5 pt favorite)
Total Favorites Record	207	78	73%

Based on spreads, Value Add favorites should have gone 206-79, but have actually gone 207-78.

The 13 games in which a team pulled a double digit upset follow. This could have been due to a great run of dice rolls that will likely even out if the teams play a few more games, or because we underestimated or overestimated one of the teams.

However, with the Colorado 2021, Auburn 2019 and Michigan State 2009 teams all pulling multiple double digit upsets and the 2006 Florida Gators being the victim multiple times, we tweak their rankings and see how their future games play out.

Double Digit Upsets	Score	Defeated
Auburn, Men, 2019, Chuma Okeke	Won 73 to 69	Florida, 2006, Joakim Noah
Auburn, Men, 2019, Chuma Okeke	Won 87 to 81	Florida, 2006, Joakim Noah
Auburn, Men, 2019, Chuma Okeke	Won 75 to 68	Kentucky, 2012, Anthony Davis
Colorado, Men, 2021, McKinley Wright	Won 86 to 82	Illinois, 1989, Nick Anderson
Colorado, Men, 2021, McKinley Wright	Won 72 to 70	Minnesota, 1977, Kevin McHale
Davidson, Men, 2008, Stephen Curry	Won 68 to 52	Florida, 2006, Joakim Noah
DePaul, Men, 1980, Mark Aguirre	Won 86 to 71	UCLA, 1967, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
Marquette, Women, 2019, Natisha Hiedeman	Won 68 to 64	Tennessee, 1989, Bridgette Gordon
Michigan St., Men, 2009, Draymond Green	Won 70 to 68	Indiana, 1976, Scott May
Michigan St., Men, 2009, Draymond Green	Won 79 to 78	Ohio St., 1960, John Havlicek
Notre Dame, Women, 2018, Arike Ogunbowales	Won 76 to 62	Connecticut, 2016, Maya Moore
UTEP (Texas West), Men, 1966, Bobby Joe Hill	Won 71 to 70	UNLV, 1991, Larry Johnson
Wake Forest, Men, 1996, Tim Duncan	Won 67 to 64	Kentucky, 1996, Antoine Walker

Double Digit Underdog Marquette 2019 Rains in 3s vs. Tennessee 1989 in All-Time Midwest Women's Clash

First we will show the playing cards for our all-time Midwest game between our 15-seed Marquette 2019 team and our 2-seed Tennessee 1989 team. While double digit underdogs like MU in this game came in only 12-76 in our game, this was a thriller Value Add Basketball Game as you can see when you scroll down.

The three Tennessee teams in the game coached by Pat Summitt's, with the all time record of 1,098-208, are now 5-1 in our game.

We did catch on slight mistake on a card we will fix (the biggest reason we try to play every team once in the game). Marquette Center Erika Davenport was listed as Suggested Play 27-1. meaning the final 27 possessions of the game. We will correct that to have her suggested play be 44-30 (the first 15 possessions of a game) and then 11-1) which lets super sub and 3-point specialist Selena Lott stay on with a smaller line-up while Davenport is resting from the 29th to 12th possession counting down.

As you can see from the screen shots of the two teams' player cards, the 1989 Tennessee team is rated a +13 while the 2019 Marquette team is a -5, so we expect Tennessee to be about an 18-point favorite. This just means Marquette ranks as about 5 points worse than the average GREAT team in the game. Obviously they were a very good team and during the season they won their average game 82-62.

Above the actual Tennessee player cards you see other notes such as that we rank this as the 7th greatest all-time team in the game, and the fact that we only take one great team per school from a great program means we chose this 1989 team instead of the two other great teams from 1987 or 1991.

Double digit underdogs are 13-76 in our all-time Great Value Add Basketball games, but the Marquette 2019 team came out and did three things that can lead to upsets; 1) from the 40th to the 16th possessions they hit an incredible eight 3-pointers  (so eight 3-pointers in 25 total possessions); 2) They got the opposing superstar Bridgette Gordon in foul trouble early, and 3) they forced 21 turnovers. 

If you look at the suggested possessions played you will see that the five Tennessee subs all played the first seven possessions (44 down to 38) and Marquette's future WNBA player Natisha Hiedeman had just hit a 3-pointer to put Marquette up 32-24 when all the Tennessee starters came in to play possessions 37 to 1 and finish the game.

The Vols put on a tremendous run led by several of Bridgette Gordon's six steals in the closing minutes converted into baskets at the other end as the Vols won the last 3 minutes of the game 8-2 but Marquette held them off for a 68-64 win to advance as the big upset 15-seed winner.'

Freshman and future star Chloe Marotta score the first two baskets, and another bench player Selena Lott who always played most of games but off the bench had the four 3-pointers that sent Marquette to the double digit lead. However, down the stretch it was the all-senior starting five that held off the huge Tennessee run and will now await the winner of the Midwest 7-seed vs. 10-seed game between Ohio State 1993 and Vanderbilt 2002. While an underdog against an all-time great, this MU team rose to No. 8 in the polls and lost by only 5 points at #6 Mississippi State, beat a ranked DePaul team 2 of 3 including a 33-point win, and beat a ranked Rice team in Texas in the first round of the NCAA before losing just 76-78 at a ranked Texas A&M team to just miss the Sweet 16.

Pat Summitt's three teams in the game were probably due for one loss, as they were 5-0 and all three ranked in our top seven teams of all time before this loss, as tracked on our record of scores. Likewise the Marquette program was likely due for a win as the all-time great men's results nullshow the Marquette teams of Dwyane Wade, national champ Butch Lee and Bo Ellis and others are 8-9 in the game. 

The win shoots Marquette from 50th to 30th in our rankings, while Tennessee drops from 7th to 17th. This is a jump similar to when Mark Aguirre and Terry Cummings DePaul team shocked Kareem Abdul-Jabbar's UCLA team. With Tennessee dropping, UConn now has three of the top eight teams and four of the top 10 teams in history in our game. All 13 double digit upsets are listed here.

 

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	F
Marquette 2019	14	23	18	13	68
Tennessee 1989	14	13	21	16	64

Pos	Marquette 2019	Pts	3pt	2pt	FT	Att	Reb	Stl	Blk	Fl	Ht,Pts,Reb,Ast
1-PG	Danielle King	7	1	2	0	0	3	4	0	2	5'5, 11.9, 4.0, 3.6
2-SG	Natisha Hiedeman	16	2	3	4	4	1	2	1	2	5'8, 17.6, 6.1, 4.5
3-SF	Amani Wilborn	6	0	3	0	0	3	1	1	1	5'9, 11.5, 4.1, 3.3
4-PF	Allazia Blockton	4	0	2	0	0	5	0	0	2	6'0, 14.3, 4.3, 2.2
5-C	Erika Davenport	2	0	1	0	0	5	0	0	2	5'11, 11.9, 9.4, 1.1
Pos	Bench	Pts	3pt	2pt	FT	Att	Reb	Stl	Blk	Fl	Ht,Pts,Reb,Ast
1-PG	Selena Lott	18	4	3	0	0	3	2	0	1	5'11, 7.1, 3.3, 1.4
2-SG	Isabelle Spingola	5	1	1	0	0	2	0	0	1	6'0, 5.2, 2.2, 0.5
3-SF	Chloe Marotta	6	0	3	0	0	2	0	0	2	6'1, 2.6, 2.3, 0.3
4-PF	Altia Anderson	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	6'2, 0.9, 2.1, 0.2
5-C	Lauren Van Kleunen	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	6'2, 4.5, 3.7, 0.8
	13 Turnovers	68	8	20	4	4	26	9	2	15
Pos	Tennessee 1989	Pts	3pt	2pt	FT	Att	Reb	Stl	Blk	Fl	Ht,Pts,Reb,Ast
1-PG	Tonya Edwards	4	0	1	2	2	1	2	0	1	5'10, 9.7, 3.0, 3.4
2-SG	Dena Head	5	1	1	0	0	3	1	0	1	5'10, 6.4, 3.0, 3.0
3-SF	Bridgette Gordon	18	3	4	1	1	7	6	0	4	6'0, 20.4, 7.0, 2.7
4-PF	Sheila Frost	12	0	6	0	0	9	0	5	1	6'4, 13.7, 6.7, 0.9
5-C	Daedra Charles	11	0	5	1	5	5	0	0	1	6'3, 9.8, 6.7, 0.7
Pos	Bench	Pts	3pt	2pt	FT	Att	Reb	Stl	Blk	Fl	Ht,Pts,Reb,Ast
1-PG	Melissa McCray	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	5'10, 6.4, 3.1, 3.6
2-SG	Debbie Scott	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	6'1, 4.5, 1.8, 1.0
3-SF	Regina Clark	6	0	3	0	0	2	0	0	1	5'8, 5.1, 2.2, 1.1
4-PF	Carla McGhee	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	6'3, 5.3, 5.4, 1.2
5-C	Kelli Casteel	2	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	1	6'2, 3.8, 1.9, 0.1
	21 Turnovers	64	4	24	4	8	32	9	5	13