Thursday, June 6, 2024

Extremely Accurate Value Add Basketball Games Yields 13th Double Digit Upset in 89 Games

 The Marquette vs Tennessee game was the 307th game we have played since inventing the Value Add Basketball Game in 2020. Click for all women's results or men's results and the teams updated rankings based on results.

So far the underdog is almost exactly as likely to pull and upset in a Value Add Basketball Game as they are in real college basketball games.

To determine the favorite in a game take the rating of one team and subtract from the rating of the other team (so if one team is a +7 and the opponent is a -3 rating above the cards, then the first team is a 10-point favorite). 

We play most games on a neutral site, but if you choose to make one team the home team, the adjust the point spread by 3 points in their favor and allow that team to change any die roll from 36 to 66 and vice versa. This recreates the average 2 to 3 more missed or false foul calls that go in the home teams advantage per actual game (in fact the home team might get 7 missed calls in their favor and the visiting team get 4 in their favor, but we just make it average 3 and 0 for the. Same effect).

In 21 of our 307 games played to date teams had the same rating, so in those games there is no favorite. The following table breaks down the results to date based on if a team is favored by 1 to 6 points, by 7 to 9 points or by double digits:

The Value Add Basketball Games proves perhaps the most accurate simulation game available through more than 300 games played since its invention.

The ratings of each team based on the cards compiled from each player's stats and level of competition and era factors provide a quick calculation of a predicted point spread between each two teams in a game.

So far, those spreads have proven extremely accurate.

In 148 games one team has been a narrow favorite (1 to 6 points, an average of 3.5 point favorite). Based on calculations, we would expect the favored team to win 60% and go 89-59. The favorites have done very slightly better, winning five more games than expected to go 94-54 so far.

In 48 games one team was favored by 7-9 points, which means would project the favorites would win 77% to go 37-11 and ... that is an exact. The Value Add favorites have gone exactly 37-11 in those games.

Finally in 89 Value Add Basketball Games one team has been favored by double digits - an average 14.6 point favorite, and in those games would predict the favorites would win 90% of their games to go 80-9 - but in fact there have been for more upsets than expected in those games to leave favorites 76-13.

Favorite                               Wins   Losses  VABG Win%       Actual Basketball Win%                 
10 pts + (ave. 14.6)761385%90% (real chance if 14.5 pt favorite)
7 to 9 points371177%77% (exact match of real chance 8pt)
1 to 6 points945464%60% (real chance if 3.5 pt favorite)
Total Favorites Record        2077873%

Based on spreads, Value Add favorites should have gone 206-79, but have actually gone 207-78.

The 13 games in which a team pulled a double digit upset follow. This could have been due to a great run of dice rolls that will likely even out if the teams play a few more games, or because we underestimated or overestimated one of the teams.

However, with the Colorado 2021, Auburn 2019 and Michigan State 2009 teams all pulling multiple double digit upsets and the 2006 Florida Gators being the victim multiple times, we tweak their rankings and see how their future games play out.

Double Digit Upsets                                              Score                Defeated                                           
Auburn, Men, 2019, Chuma OkekeWon 73 to 69Florida, 2006, Joakim Noah
Auburn, Men, 2019, Chuma OkekeWon 87 to 81Florida, 2006, Joakim Noah
Auburn, Men, 2019, Chuma OkekeWon 75 to 68Kentucky, 2012, Anthony Davis
Colorado, Men, 2021, McKinley WrightWon 86 to 82Illinois, 1989, Nick Anderson
Colorado, Men, 2021, McKinley WrightWon 72 to 70Minnesota, 1977, Kevin McHale
Davidson, Men, 2008, Stephen CurryWon 68 to 52Florida, 2006, Joakim Noah
DePaul, Men, 1980, Mark AguirreWon 86 to 71UCLA, 1967, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
Marquette, Women, 2019, Natisha HiedemanWon 68 to 64Tennessee, 1989, Bridgette Gordon
Michigan St., Men, 2009, Draymond GreenWon 70 to 68Indiana, 1976, Scott May
Michigan St., Men, 2009, Draymond GreenWon 79 to 78Ohio St., 1960, John Havlicek
Notre Dame, Women, 2018, Arike OgunbowalesWon 76 to 62Connecticut, 2016, Maya Moore
UTEP (Texas West), Men, 1966, Bobby Joe HillWon 71 to 70UNLV, 1991, Larry Johnson
Wake Forest, Men, 1996, Tim DuncanWon 67 to 64Kentucky, 1996, Antoine Walker

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