NIT Wild Elite 8 Games: UNCW 116-114, NIA 94-92

Coming off the lowest scoring game of our first 350, with Bobby Knights' Indiana defeating Michael Jordan, we proceeded to have the two wildest games decided at the buzzer.

Northern Iowa Edges Winthrop. We the non-power Conferences playing for automatic bids, we thought we would shift back to out NIT of all-time non-power champs, and the first game was between our two biggest non-power champs, with Winthrop 2007 vs. Northern Iowa 2015. In their real MVC tournament this year Northern Iowa is not in the title game due to being upset by Valpo in the quarter finals.

Seth Tuttle drew a foul in the closing seconds and hit both free throws for a 94-92 win to advance to our All-Time NIT Final 4. He has made Northern Iowa perhaps the biggest surprise so far i the game - as a blowout win over Bobby Hurley's Rhode Island, stunning upset of the 1960 Ohio State champs and then respectable loss against a Kentucky team make them 4-1 with this win and in our top 50. IN real MVC action 

Winthrop also lost their real tournament title game today to end up runner up in the Big South tournament.

UNC Wilmington over Stephen F Austin in double OT Despite 4 starters fouling out. The next game would be the second highest scoring game of our 350 Value Add Basketball Games played to date. The average score in our first 350 games has been 78-68. Ironically the lowest scoring game was played right before these two games, as Bobby Knight's Indiana beat Michael Jordan's UNC 53-46 in a matchup of perhaps the best two defensive teams in teh game.

Rnk	Highest Scoring Games	Player	Score	Allow	Pts	Opponent
1	Loyola Marymount 1990	Bo Kimble	138	116	254	Kentucky 1970
2	UNC Wilmington 2003	Devontae Cacok	116	114	230	Stephen F. Austin 2016
3	Holy Cross 1950	Bob Cousy #34	108	106	214	Duke 1986
4	Michigan St. 2000	Mateen Cleaves	108	104	212	Miami FL 1965
5	North Carolina 1998	Vince Carter	104	101	205	Loyola Marymount 1990
6	Illinois 1989	Nick Anderson	105	98	203	Loyola Marymount 1990
7	Miami FL 2023	Norchad Omier	99	98	197	Washington 2006
8	Texas 2023	Marcus Carr	97	96	193	Indiana St. 1979
9	Michigan 1965	Cazzie Russell	95	94	189	Stephen F Austin 1965
10	Marquette 2023	Tyler Kolek	94	93	187	Creighton 2023
Drop	UCLA 1967	Kareem Abdul-Jabbar #3	93	92	185	Baylor 2021

That was topped in our second game which sets all kinds of records starting with both teams being the first to score 100 points besides games  in which Loyola-Marymount was not playing.  Stephen F. Austin drew a record 33 fouls to get a record 47 foul shots attempted. Four of five UNC Wilmington starters fouled out, but the remaining player - Denzel Ingram - hit a game-winning 3-pointer at the end of the 2nd overtime to advance to our NIT Final 4 with a 116-114 win.

While we ranked Thomas Walkup as the best player in the country when we ran our Value Add Basketball rankings, it was Demetrious Floyd hit an all-time game high seven 3-pointers in the losing effort.

Pos	Stephen F Austin 2016	Pts	3pt	2pt	FT	Att	Reb	Stl	Blk	Fl	Height	Summary
	UNCW 116, SFA 114
1-PG	Trey Pinkney	6	0	2	2	4	5	2	0	2	5'9	2.7 Pts, 1.8 Reb
2-SG	Demetrious Floyd	28	7	1	5	7	1	3	1	3	5'11	13.8 Pts, 1.5 Reb
3-SF	Thomas Walkup	31	0	8	15	16	11	7	1	4	6'4	18.1 Pts, 6.9 Reb
4-PF	Ty Charles	21	1	7	4	9	7	4	0	3	6'5	9.4 Pts, 4.8 Reb
5-C	T.J. Holyfield	14	0	3	8	11	10	0	2	1	6'8	7.5 Pts, 4.2 Reb
1-PG	Jared Johnson	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	6'0	6.0 Pts, 0.9 Reb
2-SG	Dallas Cameron	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	6'3	3.5 Pts, 1.0 Reb
3-SF	Nathan Bain	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	6'6	2.5 Pts, 2.0 Reb
4-PF	Clide Geffrard	6	0	3	0	0	1	0	0	1	6'5	13.3 Pts, 5.9 Reb
5-C	C.J. Williams	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	6'2	2.4 Pts, 2.7 Reb
	Turnovers 14	114	8	28	34	47	39	16	4	18
Pos	UNC Wilmington 2017	Pts	3pt	2pt	FT	Att	Reb	Stl	Blk	Fl	Height	Summary
1-PG	Denzel Ingram	33	4	9	3	4	3	1	0	3	6'0	14.6 Pts, 2.2 Reb
2-SG	Ambrose Mosley	5	1	1	0	0	2	1	0	5	6'2	8.2 Pts, 2.9 Reb
3-SF	Chris Flemmings	13	1	5	0	0	2	0	1	5	6'5	15.8 Pts, 5.6 Reb
4-PF	C.J. Bryce	24	1	7	7	10	3	0	0	5	6'5	17.4 Pts, 5.4 Reb
5-C	Devontae Cacok	12	0	6	0	0	13	0	2	5	6'7	12.3 Pts, 9.8 Reb
1-PG	Jordon Talley	14	1	5	1	2	1	0	0	2	6'0	7.6 Pts, 1.7 Reb
2-SG	JaQuel Richmond	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	6'1	4.6 Pts, 1.2 Reb
3-SF	Jaylen Fornes	2	0	1	0	0	1	1	0	2	6'3	3.1 Pts, 1.0 Reb
4-PF	Marcus Bryan	2	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	2	6'7	2.2 Pts, 2.7 Reb
5-C	Chuck Ogbodo	9	0	4	1	1	2	0	0	3	6'9	1.5 Pts, 2.0 Reb
	Turnovers 21	116	8	40	12	17	30	3	3	33
	Previous game
Pos	Winthrop 2007	Pts	3pt	2pt	FT	Att	Reb	Stl	Blk	Fl	Height	Summary
	N IA wins 116-114
1-PG	Michael Jenkins	12	2	3	0	0	2	3	0	2	6'3	14.8 Pts, 3.8 Reb
2-SG	Chris Gaynor	14	2	4	0	0	1	0	0	2	5'10	7.8 Pts, 3.2 Reb
3-SF	Taj McCullough	16	3	2	3	3	4	0	0	1	6'7	7.9 Pts, 3.8 Reb
4-PF	Phillip Williams	8	2	1	0	0	5	0	0	2	6'8	8.7 Pts, 5.5 Reb
5-C	Craig Bradshaw	16	1	6	1	2	5	0	2	2	6'11	13.5 Pts, 6.3 Reb
1-PG	DeAndre Adams	7	0	3	1	1	3	0	1	3	5'8	2.1 Pts, 1.1 Reb
2-SG	Antwon Harris	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	6'4	5.5 Pts, 3.3 Reb
3-SF	Kyle Moore	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	6'3	1.9 Pts, 0.8 Reb
4-PF	Mantoris Robinson	2	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	2	6'5	2.4 Pts, 2.6 Reb
5-C	Torrell Martin	13	3	2	0	0	3	1	0	2	6'5	14.5 Pts, 5.7 Reb
	Turnovers 13	92	13	24	5	6	27	4	3	18
Pos	Northern Iowa 2015 (MVC)	Pts	3pt	2pt	FT	Att	Reb	Stl	Blk	Fl	Ht	Actual Season
1-PG	Deon Mitchell	11	1	4	0	0	2	1	0	1	6'1	7.5 Pts, 2.0 ^ 2.5 Ast
2-SG	Matt Bohannon	9	1	1	4	4	2	3	3	1	6'4	5.7 Pts, 1.7 ^ 0.9 Ast
3-SF	Jeremy Morgan	11	2	2	1	1	4	0	0	1	6'5	5.6 Pts, 3.1 ^ 0.9 Ast
4-PF	Marvin Singleton	10	0	4	2	2	4	0	0	1	6'6	4.7 Pts, 4.9 ^ 0.7 Ast
5-C	Seth Tuttle	25	4	4	5	5	4	0	2	3	6'8	15.3 Pts, 6.9 ^ 3.3 Ast
1-PG	Wes Washpun	10	2	1	2	4	2	0	1	2	6'1	7.6 Pts, 2.5 ^ 2.6 Ast
2-SG	Wyatt Lohaus	5	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	6'2	3.8 Pts, 1.2 ^ 0.7 Ast
3-SF	Paul Jesperson	2	0	1	0	0	3	0	0	1	6'6	5.9 Pts, 2.3 ^ 0.3 Ast
4-PF	Nate Buss	9	2	1	1	1	2	0	0	1	6'9	7.7 Pts, 2.7 ^ 0.1 Ast
5-C	Bennett Koch	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	6'9	1.4 Pts, 0.6 ^ 0.0 Ast
	Turnovers 12	94	13	20	15	17	25	4	6	13

14 NBA Players in KS 2008 vs KY 2012; Seattle's Elgin Baylor 32.5 ppt vs. Walkup's SFA

After Michael Jordan's UNC shocked repeat champs from 1962, Cincinnati, our All-Time NCAA Elite 8 and All-Time non-power conference NIT Elite 8 will both be half full after our next NIT-NCAA Value Add Basketball Game double header. 

The Kansas 2008 vs. Kentucky 2012 NCAA All-Time Sweet 16 game will feature seven future NBA players on each team. The NIT games normally do not feature any all-time great players, but the next NIT game features one of the greatest 75 players of all time in Elgin Baylor, who averaged 32.5 points per game for Seattle 1958. Their opponent Stephen F. Austin features the star more typical of non-power conferences, the great Thomas Walkup, who talked about choosing to be a star in Europe in this story that includes video of just how close they came in 2016 to pulling off a second straight upset to go Sweet 16.

NIT update: Elgin Baylor scored 29 points, but our top ranked Value Add player of 2016 - Thomas Walkup, matched the 29 and got 23 from 3-point specialist Demetrious Floyd to let Stephen F. Austin stun Seattle 88-73. They are the 4th Elite 8 team in our small conference NIT tournament.

NCAA update: Anthony Davis and Kentucky 2012 destroyed Kansas 2008, as covered in this blog.

Here are the players for each of the four teams in this match-up with their actual season stats and the two brackets to show the three teams that have already made the two Elite 8s.

Pos	Stephen F. Austin 2016	Ht,NBA	Actual Season Stats
1-PG	Trey Pinkney	5'9	2.7 Pts, 1.8 Reb, 3.7 Ast
2-SG	Demetrious Floyd	5'11	13.8 Pts, 1.5 Reb, 1.5 Ast
3-SF	Thomas Walkup	6'4	18.1 Pts, 6.9 Reb, 4.5 Ast
4-PF	Ty Charles	6'5	9.4 Pts, 4.8 Reb, 2.3 Ast
5-C	T.J. Holyfield	6'8	7.5 Pts, 4.2 Reb, 1.1 Ast
1-PG	Jared Johnson	6'0	6.0 Pts, 0.9 Reb, 1.1 Ast
2-SG	Dallas Cameron	6'3	3.5 Pts, 1.0 Reb, 1.6 Ast
3-SF	Nathan Bain	6'6	2.5 Pts, 2.0 Reb, 0.5 Ast
4-PF	Clide Geffrard	6'5	13.3 Pts, 5.9 Reb, 1.4 Ast
5-C	C.J. Williams	6'2	2.4 Pts, 2.7 Reb, 1.0 Ast
Pos	Seattle 1958	Ht,NBA	Actual Season Stats
1-PG	Jim Harney	5'10	6.8 Pts, 1.2 Reb
2-SG	Jerry Frizzell	6'4	9.3 Pts, 4.4 Reb
3-SF	Don Ogorek	6'5	9.3 Pts, 6.3 Reb
4-PF	Charlie Brown	6'2	10.8 Pts, 7.3 Reb
5-C	Elgin Baylor	NBA,6'6	32.5 Pts, 19.3 Reb
1-PG	Don Piasecki	6'2	3.6 Pts, 1.8 Reb
2-SG	John Stepan	6'6	1.4 Pts, 1.8 Reb
3-SF	Jude Petrie	6'6	1.4 Pts, 2.1 Reb
4-PF	Francis Saunders	6'2	5.7 Pts, 2.9 Reb
5-C	Thornton Humphries	6'7	2.8 Pts, 3.7 Reb
Pos	Kansas 2008	Ht,NBA	Actual Season Stats
1-PG	Mario Chalmers	NBA,6'1	12.8 Pts, 3.1 Reb, 4.3 Ast
2-SG	Russell Robinson	6'1	7.3 Pts, 2.8 Reb, 4.1 Ast
3-SF	Brandon Rush	NBA,6'6	13.3 Pts, 5.1 Reb, 2.1 Ast
4-PF	Darnell Jackson	NBA,6'9	11.2 Pts, 6.7 Reb, 1.1 Ast
5-C	Darrell Arthur	NBA,6'9	12.8 Pts, 6.3 Reb, 0.8 Ast
1-PG	Sherron Collins	NBA,5'11	9.3 Pts, 2.2 Reb, 3.1 Ast
2-SG	Sasha Kaun	NBA,6'11	7.1 Pts, 3.9 Reb, 0.3 Ast
3-SF	Cole Aldrich	NBA,6'11	2.8 Pts, 3.0 Reb, 0.1 Ast
4-PF	Conner Teahan	6'5	2.2 Pts, 0.4 Reb, 0.3 Ast
5-C	Rodrick Stewart	6'4	2.8 Pts, 2.2 Reb, 1.4 Ast
Pos	Kentucky 2012	Ht,NBA	Actual Season Stats
1-PG	Marquis Teague	NBA,6'2	10.0 Pts, 2.5 Reb, 4.8 Ast
2-SG	Doron Lamb	NBA,6'4	13.7 Pts, 2.7 Reb, 1.5 Ast
3-SF	Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	NBA,6'7	11.9 Pts, 7.4 Reb, 1.9 Ast
4-PF	Terrence Jones	NBA,6'9	12.3 Pts, 7.2 Reb, 1.3 Ast
5-C	Anthony Davis	NBA,6'10	14.2 Pts, 10.4 Reb, 1.3 Ast
1-PG	Darius Miller	NBA,6'8	9.9 Pts, 2.8 Reb, 2.1 Ast
2-SG	Jarrod Polson	6'2	0.1 Pts, 0.4 Reb, 0.1 Ast
3-SF	Sam Malone (card Jon Hood)	5'11	1.0 Pts, 0.3 Reb, 0.2 Ast
4-PF	Eloy Vargas	6'11	0.8 Pts, 1.7 Reb, 0.1 Ast
5-C	Kyle Wiltjer	NBA,6'10	5.0 Pts, 1.8 Reb, 0.4 Ast

Western Athletic and Return of Value Add All-Americans

All-Western Athletic Conf	Team	Value	AdjO	AdjD	Notes
Brandton Chatfield	Seattle	7.84	134.9	99.6	20-12, Poss 13.7%
Tim Fuller	Utah Valley	7.38	127.3	95.3	28-9, Poss 13.7%
Qua Grant	Sam Houston St.	6.77	101.6	94.1	26-8 (PG), Poss 30.3%
Sadaidriene Hall	Stephen F. Austin	5.64	114.2	102.1	19-13, Poss 21.8%
Noah Baumann	Grand Canyon	5.59	122.7	106.1	14-seed, 24-12, Poss 15.6%
HM-Western Athletic Conf	Team	Value	AdjO	AdjD	Notes
Ray Harrison	Grand Canyon	4.31	110.4	106.1	14-seed, 24-12, Poss 30.5%
Tevian Jones	Southern Utah	4.08	108.1	103.6	24-13, Poss 24%

Above is a very late All-Western Athletic Conference team from the 2022-23 season, and we will be updating these and the top 300 players at www.valueaddbasketball.com to go along with the rankings going back to the 2001-02 season. While this system received rave reviews from Sports Illustrated, ESPN, Fox Sports and many others, last season we skipped because we lost the ability to rank all 4000 players who take the court for D1 action.

The WAC lost their football power New Mexico State to Conference USA, along with Sam Houston State. However, the traditional hoops power Stephen F. Austin and newer big time team Grand Canyon remain to give two strong basketball powers. 

Team	2023	2024	2025	Seed2	Rnk24
Abilene Christian	WAC	WAC	WAC		152
Cal Baptist	WAC	WAC	WAC		185
Grand Canyon	WAC	WAC	WAC	14	76
New Mexico St.	WAC	CUSA	CUSA		253
Sam Houston St.	WAC	CUSA	CUSA		143
Seattle	WAC	WAC	WAC		140
Southern Utah	WAC	WAC	WAC		232
Stephen F. Austin	WAC	WAC	WAC		92
Tarleton St.	WAC	WAC	WAC		170
UT Arlington	WAC	WAC	WAC		173
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	WAC	WAC		295
Utah Tech	WAC	WAC	WAC		222
Utah Valley	WAC	WAC	WAC		184

Better late than never - this is one of 32 lists of All-Conference teams based on the "resurrected" Value Add Basketball rankings at www.valueaddbasketball.com. The other 31 releases of Conference teams will all include this same explanation for the rest of the blog, including the 10 returning All-Americans and top 60 players from last season listed further down.

This paragraph is of interest to stat nerds only. The offensive ratings were easier to recreate, since the basis was to pull hundreds of players ranked as the most efficient last season (AdjO at www.kenpom.com) and adjusting their figures for their percent of possessions. A player who can produce about 1.2 points per time he has the ball who also gets the ball 25% of the time against tough competition and as part of a strong defense can be All-American level, but a player who doesn't get the ball nearly as often but produces even more at 1.3 points per possession can still be All-Conference even if fans feel other players handling and shooting the ball more are better due to higher points scored per game.

The new simplified system weighs their ability to produce points against the Adjusted Defense (AdjD) - that is how many points per 100 trips would their team allow against an average D1 team. This accounts both for defense and for level of competition. We also note if a player is a Point Guard, the most important position on the court.

The resulting "Value" listed in the third column is the Value Add of points the player would improve an average team over if he could not play if a decent replacement took his place. Zach Edey was by far the most valuable player in the country last year at 13.17 meaning typically he would turn a 65-70 loss for a team into a 72-64 win - a 13 point swing. The notes off to the first indicated the team's record, their seed if they made the tournament, and then if they went to the NBA in the 2023 draft or are projected to go in the 2024 or 2025 draft.

1st and 2nd Team Returning All-Americans; and Top 60 Players from Last Season

 

The table below is the list of the 30 most valuable players in college basketball for the 2022-23 season according to our simplified www.valueaddbasketball.com rankings. Obviously most of these top players finished their eligibility or went pro so are no longer playing. However, if we made this our All-American teams of returning players including transfers at their new school the headline would be from Creighton.

1st Team Returning All-Americans - Value Add Basketball calculates that Creighton now has two of the three most valuable players in 2022-23 in returning Ryan Kalkbrenner and Utah State transfer Steven Ashworth. Ironically, Thursday it was Colorado State that handed Creighton its first loss - a team that Ashworth had dominated four of seven times in conference games at Utah State. The other 1st Team All-Americans based on last year's Value Add would be J'Wan Roberts returning for Houston, and then Tylor Perry who transferred from North Texas to Kansas State.

Most Valuable Player for 2nd Year. However, the far and away Most Valuable Player in the Country could challenge Anthony Davis, Jon Scheyer and Zion Williamson for as the most Valuable college player of the century in the All-Time Value Add Basketball Rankings - Zach Edey who was almost 2 points better than anyone in the country last year at Purdue and has them at No. 1 this season.

2nd Team Returning All-Americans - The 6th most valuable returning player according to Value Add is Marquette Point Guard Tyler Kolek. He would be joined on a second team All-American squad of returning players by Tennessee's Santiago Vescovi, Texas transfer from Oral Roberts Max Abmas, Duke's Ryan Young, Arizona's Azuolas Tubelis and finally Cam Spencer, who transferred from Rutgers to UConn.

In all, 18 of the top 30 players finished their college careers, leaving those 10 returning All-Americans and then two other players - JaKobe Coles of TCU and USC's Boogie Ellis.
 

All-American 1st Team	Team	Value	AdjO	AdjD	Notes
Zach Edey	Purdue	13.17	125.9	94.5	1-seed, 29-6, nba 58 in 2024
Adama Sanogo (gone)	Connecticut	11.37	122.6	90.9	4-seed, 31-8, Poss 26.4%
Marcus Sasser (gone)	Houston	11.25	123.4	90.4	1-seed, 33-4, nba 25 in 2023
Ryan Kalkbrenner	Creighton	10.80	133.4	93.2	6-seed, 24-13, Poss 19.4%
Steven Ashworth (Creigh)	Utah St.	10.72	127.7	98.9	10-seed, 26-9 (PG), Poss 21.6%
All-American 2nd Team	Team	Value	AdjO	AdjD	Notes
Tylor Perry (K-State)	North Texas	10.37	124.3	94.1	31-7, Poss 24.4%
Brandon Miller (gone)	Alabama	10.23	117.0	88.2	1-seed, 31-6, nba 2 in 2023
Xavier Castaneda (gone)	Akron	9.94	121.9	103.4	22-11 (PG), Poss 29.4%
J'Wan Roberts	Houston	9.90	127.9	90.4	1-seed, 33-4, Poss 18.4%
Jordan Hawkins (gone)	Connecticut	9.88	121.2	90.9	4-seed, 31-8, nba 14 in 2023
All-American 3rd Team	Team	Value	AdjO	AdjD	Notes
Jaime Jaquez (gone)	UCLA	9.80	113.1	88	2-seed, 31-6, nba 18 in 2023
Jalen Pickett (gone)	Penn St.	9.66	118.7	101.1	10-seed, 23-14 (PG), nba 32 in 2023
Jordan Walker (gone)	UAB	9.64	114.7	97.9	29-10 (PG), Poss 30.6%
Tyler Kolek	Marquette	9.63	118	96.7	2-seed, 29-7 (PG), Poss 24.1%
Santiago Vescovi	Tennessee	9.52	114.2	87.5	4-seed, 25-11 (PG), Poss 18.8%
All-American 4th Team	Team	Value	AdjO	AdjD	Notes
Max Abmas (Texas)	Oral Roberts	9.47	120.2	102.2	12-seed, 30-5 (PG), Poss 27.6%
Trayce Jackson-Davis (g)	Indiana	9.45	118.5	97.2	4-seed, 23-12, nba 57 in 2023
Ryan Young	Duke	9.37	128.7	93.9	5-seed, 27-9, Poss 18.3%
Kendric Davis (grad)	Memphis	9.24	111.1	96.1	8-seed, 26-9 (PG), Poss 31.6%
Drew Timme (grad)	Gonzaga	9.21	119.6	99.3	3-seed, 31-6, Poss 30.6%
All-American 5th Team	Team	Value	AdjO	AdjD	Notes
Markquis Nowell (gone)	Kansas St.	8.92	111	95	3-seed, 26-10 (PG), Poss 27.6%
Souley Boum (gone)	Xavier	8.87	119.2	98.6	3-seed, 27-10 (PG), Poss 21.2%
Oscar Tshiebwe (gone)	Kentucky	8.83	122.6	98.8	6-seed, 22-12, Poss 24.5%
Terence Lewis (gone)	Louisiana	8.74	131.2	102.9	13-seed, 26-8, Poss 20.3%
Darius McGhee (gone)	Liberty	8.68	114.5	97.5	27-9, Poss 33.4%
All-American 6th Team	Team	Value	AdjO	AdjD	Notes
Azuolas Tubelis	Arizona	8.68	116.1	96.3	2-seed, 28-7, Poss 28.7%
Cam Spencer (UConn)	Rutgers	8.66	119.4	90.8	19-15, Poss 19.8%
Sir'Jabari Rice (gone)	Texas	8.66	116.3	92.1	2-seed, 29-9, Poss 23.4%
JaKobe Coles	TCU	8.64	118.4	94.3	6-seed, 22-13, Poss 23.4%
Boogie Ellis	USC	8.56	113.3	97.5	10-seed, 22-11 (PG), Poss 25.7%

Michigan Record Comeback Against Biggest Home Job at Stephen F Austin

 We made the heavily favored Michigan 1965 travel for the debut of the 2016 Stephen F Austin, and what we played was the biggest home job to date in our Value Add Basketball Game.

Biggest Home Job Ever

To document the home job - in the Value Add Basketball Game if a team is designated as the home team (vs. just a neutral site game) then we write "at" on the center of the scoresheet. The home team has the option of flipping the result of any roll of 36 or 66 - which gives them 2-3 calls a game and simulates the normal home advantage - but this was ridiculous.

Bad Call 1 - with 17:28 (29 possessions) left to play, star Bill Buntin was called for a phantom foul (dice roll of 66 changed to 36) and Ty Charles hit one of two free throws to give Stephen F. Austin (SFA) their first lead at 50-49.

Bad Call 2- with 13:11 (22 possessions) left to play Buntin was again called for a phantom foul and this time on a 3-point shot by Charles, who hit 2 of 3 to against give SFA the lead, 61-59.

Bad Call 3 - with 7:40 (13 possessions) to play, Oliver Darden scored to give Michigan a 69-66, but he was also fouled while scoring and the foul was missed.

Bad Call 4 - with 4:35 (8 possessions) to play and SFA leading 73-72, the refs unbelievably made another bogus call against Buntin this time fouling him out of the game. In the next two minutes (to the 2:44 mark or 5 possessions to play) with Buntin on the bench, SFA went on a 13-5 run to seemingly put the game away 86-74.

We could have played the game in Crisler Arena - known as the House Cazzie built - but wanted to give SFA a longshot chance of an upset like they pulled in two March Madness tournaments. In our rankings we do give teams credit for playing on the road. But the 86-74 lead led to ... (see below scoresheet)

Biggest Comeback Ever

The biggest comeback we have witnessed in all our games. Michigan went on a 5-0 run by the 1 minute mark, then the player who would go onto be the National Player of the Year and No. 1 pick in the NBA draft the next year, Cazzie Russell, hit a 3-pointer to make it 86-82 .

George Pomey then made the play of the game with a steal, which by giving the chance at a fast break saves time and lets the team on the fast break use the bottom triangle on the same row in addition to lowering the 20-sided die 1 number for a better chance at a shot. Pomey hit John Thompson with a pass on the break and Thompson finished to make it 86-84. 

Pomey then made a mistake and fouled Demetrious Floyd, a 70% or 1-14 free throw shooter, but Floyd missed both free throws to leave the score 86-84.

Pomey scored at the other end to tie the game 86-86 and then after a miss at a would be game winning buzzer beater, Pomey grabbed the rebound to end regulation with Michigan having completed an incredible 12-0 run in just 2:07 to extend the game.

Cazzie finally Wins Battle of Players of the Year Vs. Walkup

The game was as special treat because it featured Cazzie - who would be awarded Player of the Year the next year before being drafted first to go to the NBA, where he won a world title - against Thomas Walkup, who is the only player from a smaller conference to ever be calculated as the best player in the country by www.valueaddbasketball.com.

Since both are the "3" in the game as small forward, they were guarding each other - a big concern for Michigan because Walkup draws so many fouls (on 10-14). While Russell only draws fouls on three numbers (9-11) he does get the ball more as one of the few players who get the ball 37% of the time in the game (on rolls of 3, 6 or 7 on the 8-sided die).

With 1:30 to go in overtime, he finally won an epic battle by drawing a 5th foul on Walkup while Michigan trailed 89-92, and hitting both free throws to finish the night with 29 points, 10 rebounds and three blocked shots. Walkup was almost as impressive with 19 points, 13 rebounds and two steals, but SFA's thin bench could not pull it out with their star on the bench, as Cazzie's two free throws started a 6-2 run for the 95-94 epic come from behind win.

The matchup seemed to be a decent one for SFA, with a front line of only 6'4, 6'5 and 6'8 and a weak rebounding team. However, Michigan's team - which had the bad luck of this incredible team during John Wooden's run of titles at UCLA  so only finished National Runner-Up - was not much bigger at 6'5, 6'5 and 6'8.

How to Make Your Own Value Add Basketball Cards - Our 136th Team

Some of the 63,700 who have visited our Value Add Basketball Game ask about creating new teams. We created the 2020 anticipated NCAA and NIT teams to play the Covid cancelled tournament, in addition to the 135 All-Time Great teams. 

One reader is working on an automated calculation of cards, though it is complicated, so after giving him the script we decided to also post this blog in case you want to manually go through to create one of your favorite teams. The process for teams before the start of the www.kenpom.com era (2002 to present) is simply too complicated to script, so the following process works only for seasons since then.

You first need to access the team you want to create at www.kenpom.com. We've tried to pick the best combos of top players and top teams - but also as often as possible create one for a university that does not yet have a team in the game. We actually meant to create 136 all-time great teams and accidentally did 135 in the first place, so our new 136th team is a new University - the greatest 3-year Cinderella run of the Century led by the only player from a small conference to be the best player in the entire country - Thomas Walkup and Stephen F Austin.

1. Pick you team from 2002 - present: Thomas Walkup and Stephen Austin 2016. Value Add Basketball calculates that the best player in all 21 seasons were from a Power 6 Conference or very high major conference (ACC 4, American 1, Big Ten 4, Big 12 3, Big East 1, CUSA 1, MWC 2, Pac-12 2, SEC 2) except one. In 2016 Thomas Walkup of Stephen F. Austin calculated as the best player in the country.

Not only was Walkup the best player in 2016, he was in the best 1% of all players in 2015 and top 5% of all players in 2014, the greatest 3-year span of a Cinderella team this Century. During that 3-year tenure of current Illinois coach Brad Underwood, Stephen F. Austin went 89-12. In 2014 they stunned VCU in the NCAA tournament, then Walkup scored 22 and grabbed 11 rebounds in a 2nd round loss to UCLA. In 2015, the lost a defensive battle in the opening round to the other team we considered for this 136th team - the Utah team that featured Value Add's best player in the nation for 2015 - Delon Wright. 

Anyone who doubted if our ranking of 2016 with Walkup as the most valuable player in the country should look at the 2016 tournament. Walkup scored 33 points, and added 9 rebounds, 4 assists and 4 steals in a stunning upset blowout of West Virginia 70-56, then added 21 points despite missing most of the second half in foul trouble as only a desperation tip-in by Notre Dame eliminated SFA 76-75.

And so we present the greatest 3-year Cinderella team of the Century as our 136th Great All-Time team.

2. Get the team's stats from www.kenpom.com and calculate their dunk total. 

Once you pick your team, find that team at www.kenpom.com. You can see the page above for the first step, then need a $20/year subscription to access the rest of the team data. Under Strength of Schedule record the team's OppO and OppD for calculating the Dunk range in the final Step 13.

Then click on the team to pull up the team sheet and scroll to the bottom to see these player stats. You will need the stats that are circled for the top 10 players. The bottom chart just tells you the best position for each player.

Copy and paste the stats for the top 10 players in the top section above into an excel spreadsheet. Note any shooting ranges that starts with a 1 through 12 will show up as a month when you paste, so just us an extra mark to convert it. Here is what is pasted from the Stephen F. Austin 2016 page. 

The column I added to the right is which position each player will play. I use the depth chart Ken Pomeroy provides at the bottom, so when I see Trey Pinkney played point guard 77% of the time, I put a "1" by his line to show he is the starting point guard. The numbers 6-10 I used for backups, so after entering 1 through 5 by players, I put a "6" by Jared Johnson as the backup point card. This is important because it is the order in which the players will appear on the team sheet. Remember, teams are limited to 10 players, so in this cards the players with the lowest percent of minutes played will not be in the game, Jovan Grujic (8% of minutes played), Lasani Johnson (4.6%) and LaQuan Smith (3.7%) will not have player cards.

I also noted in bold or font color what columns we will use to calculate the cards. The other columns are not used and will be eliminated.

3. Delete the columns you do not need. At this point we delete the columns we don't need as well as those players who will not have one of the 10 player cards We also take the columns in red out to the right and convert and rearrange them slightly into 2-pointers and 3-pointers missed instead of attempted, and we divided free throw attempts by 2 for a new figure. After those changes, here is the condensed part of Pomeroy's stats we need to keep.

4. Run the calculations for what happens on the 1-20 die when the player tries to score. We can now calculated what happens based on the 20-sided die once a player gets the ball and he tries to score. 

To jump ahead to the easy part, if a player gets to the free throw line you roll the 20-sided dice and the range is based on the rounded free throw percentage. Walkup hit 83% of his free throws, so we multiply that figure by 20 to get "17," meaning he will make a free throw on 1-17 and miss it on 18-20.

Now to the 20-sided roll before that, when the player first gets the ball and tries to score. In Walkup's case he made 9 three-pointers, 187 two-pointers, he attempted 190 free throws and half of that is roughly 95 trips to the line, he missed 28 three-pointers and he missed 111 two-pointers. Add those together, and he tried to score 430 times. Therefore we divided each of those five numbers by 430, then multiply by 20 to determine how often each thing should happen each time the 20-sided roll comes to him to try to score.

The calculations you see after the "430" figure on that top line create this part of the card.

Thomas Walkup

3-pt made: None (0.4 per 20 rounds down to zero)

2-pt made: 1-9 (8.7 rounds up to 9, so he gets nine numbers with a made 2-pointers)

2 Free Throws: 10-14 (4.4 would round down to 4 BUT we actually add the numbers up to that point, so 0.4 plus 8.7 plus 4.4 = 14 so the Foul drawn number actually goes up to 14 rather than 13 or this 10-14 range).

3-pt missed: 15 (1.3 rounds down to 1)

2-pt missed: 16-20 (5.2 rounds down to five numbers and when you add the 5 calculations they do add up to 20.0, which is a double check that the formulas are all accurate). 

FT Made: 1-17 (as mentioned above, the .83 free throw percentage times 20.

As you can see, a deadly combination of drawing a foul on 10-14 and then hitting the subsequent two free throws on rolls of 11-17 show some of the reason he dominated in 2016.

5. Look at % Possessions to determine who gets the ball. Before you use that 20-sided die roll, you need to figure out who gets the ball on each possession. The 8-sided die determines his. Each player gets the ball on 1 of the first 5 numbers, so if the 5 starters were in, based on the left column, a roll of 1 goes to the PG Trey Pinkney, a 2 goes to the SG Demetrious Floyd, a 3 goes to the SF Walkup, the 4 goes to the PF Ty Charles and finally a 5 goes to the C TJ Holyfield.

This leaves the determination of who gets the ball on a 6, 7 or 8. Once in a while a player has a % possession of higher then 33%, and if that were the case then the player would get the ball on two of the three extra rolls, so if Walkup were that high, then by the "Gets Ball On: you would type 3, 6 & 8." 

Since no player is above 33%, we instead take the three starters with the highest possession percentage get the ball on an extra number, so the Get Ball On comes to:

1 - Trey Pinkney (only 8.1% of possessions, so definitely the fewest possessions and only his one number as point guard.

2 & 6 - Demetrious Floyd (21.5% is second highest)

3 & 7 - Thomas Walkup (27.3% is highest)

4 & 8 - Ty Charles (21.1%)

5 - TJ Holyfield (20.3%).

You then to the same thing with the five subs, so 1 & 6 = Jared Johnson, 2 - Dallas Cameron, 3 = Nathan Bane, 4 & 7 - Clide Geffrard, 5 & 8 = CJ Williams. Often a mixture of starters and reserves are in the game. In that case, if you have too many 6-7-8 on players cards you simply choose which three will get on of the extra rolls, and if you do not have all 6-7-8 numbers come up, then if that number comes up then no one gets the ball and you roll a second time, but if any of the three (6, 7 or 8) come up then it is a shot clock violation and the other team gets the ball on a turnover.

Those are the five steps to calculate the offensive numbers on each card. The next blog will calculte the defensive numbers and rebounding on each card.

Western Athletic Conference Top 15 Men’s Basketball Players To Date

 For Immediate Release

John Pudner, 404.606.3163, johnp@takebackaction.org

Western Athletic Conference Top 15 Men’s Basketball Players To Date

“Value Add Basketball is happy to provide the early list of the conferences top 15 men’s  basketball players based on proven analytics used by NBA teams for draft prep,as well as writers at Sports Illustrated, ESPN, NBC Sports, Fox Sports,” said John Pudner, the inventor of the system.”

“The WAC fields one of the most balanced and competitive conferences and list of potential all-conference players, but right now we give recent newcomer Tarleton St. the player of the year in point guard Montre Gipson.Utah Valley’s Fardaws Aimaq is slightly behind him in the No. 2 spot, and once again has the top defensive rating in the conference after winning Defensive Player of the Year last year. In addition to the top 15 overall players, we listed five other great defenders who could give him a run or at least fill out a WAC All-Defensive squad, and Coryon Mason of Abilene Christian made the Southland’s All-Defensive squad before transferring.”

.”

“Our best guess in this balanced conference is a title game between New Mexico State and our No. 3 ranked player Jabari Rice, and Grand Canyon and our No. 4 player Jovan Blacksher.”

You can click on this google doc with information on all 4,000+ players prior to it being posted on www.valueaddbasketball.com. You can also click here for the top 100 players in the country.

Information includes each player’s chance of making the NBA, his Value Add Rating for how many points he impacts a typical game (roughly 10 points is All-American level). The key to the table is: Rank = the player's conference ranking, Value Add = how many points he improves his team over a replacement player, Class = if he is in his 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th and final year of eligibility, Ht = his height, AdjD = how many points he takes away from opponents, and NBA = his percent chance of making the NBA.

Feel free to use any information contained in these statements as wanted, and email (johnp@takebackaction.org), or text/call 404.606.3163 for any questions or additional quotes from John Pudner.

Rank	WAC	Team	Value Add	Class	Ht	AdjD	NBA
1	Montre Gipson	Tarleton St.	6.08	Sr	5'11"	-0.74	1%
2	Fardaws Aimaq	Utah Valley	5.89	So	6'11"	-3.51	1%
3	Jabari Rice	New Mexico St.	5.68	Jr	6'4"	-1.13	1%
4	Jovan Blacksher	Grand Canyon	5.53	Jr	5'11"	-1.39	1%
5	Tahj Small	Tarleton St.	5.44	Sr	6'5"	-1.32	1%
6	Mahki Morris	Abilene Christian	4.88	Sr	6'3"	-0.93	1%
7	Daniel Akin	Cal Baptist	4.83	Sr	6'9"	-1.37	1%
8	Immanuel Allen	Abilene Christian	4.72	Jr	6'4"	-0.93	1%
9	David Kachelries	Stephen F. Austin	4.41	Sr	6'1"	0.1	1%
10	Coryon Mason	Abilene Christian	4.39	Sr	6'0	-1.7	1%
11	Cameron Gooden	Dixie St.	4.36	Jr	5'11"	0.2	1%
12	Sadaidriene Hall	Stephen F. Austin	4.36	Fr	6'5"	-1.41	1%
13	Cameron Tyson	Seattle	4.2	So	6'2"	-0.33	1%
14	Holland Woods	Grand Canyon	3.65	Sr	6'1"	-0.45	1%
15	Javion May	Sam Houston St.	3.6	Jr	6'2"	-0.92	1%
Def	Shamir Bogues	Tarleton St.	2.62	So	6'4"	-2.94	1%
Def	Freddy Hicks	Tarleton St.	1.21	So	6'6"	-2.08	1%
Def	Darrion Trammell	Seattle	2.57	So	5'10"	-2	1%
Def	Calvin Solomon	Stephen F. Austin	1.28	Jr	6'7"	-1.97	1%
Def	Will McNair	New Mexico St.	3.6	So	6'10"	-1.9	1%