Showing posts with label WAC. Show all posts
Showing posts with label WAC. Show all posts

Thursday, November 23, 2023

Western Athletic and Return of Value Add All-Americans

All-Western Athletic Conf   TeamValue  AdjO AdjD  Notes
Brandton ChatfieldSeattle7.84134.999.620-12, Poss 13.7%
Tim FullerUtah Valley7.38127.395.328-9, Poss 13.7%
Qua GrantSam Houston St.6.77101.694.126-8 (PG), Poss 30.3%
Sadaidriene HallStephen F. Austin5.64114.2102.119-13, Poss 21.8%
Noah BaumannGrand Canyon5.59122.7106.114-seed, 24-12, Poss 15.6%
HM-Western Athletic ConfTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Ray HarrisonGrand Canyon4.31110.4106.114-seed, 24-12, Poss 30.5%
Tevian JonesSouthern Utah4.08108.1103.624-13, Poss 24%

Above is a very late All-Western Athletic Conference team from the 2022-23 season, and we will be updating these and the top 300 players at www.valueaddbasketball.com to go along with the rankings going back to the 2001-02 season. While this system received rave reviews from Sports Illustrated, ESPN, Fox Sports and many others, last season we skipped because we lost the ability to rank all 4000 players who take the court for D1 action.

The WAC lost their football power New Mexico State to Conference USA, along with Sam Houston State. However, the traditional hoops power Stephen F. Austin and newer big time team Grand Canyon remain to give two strong basketball powers. 

Team                                     2023      2024       2025      Seed2    Rnk24
Abilene ChristianWACWACWAC 152
Cal BaptistWACWACWAC 185
Grand CanyonWACWACWAC1476
New Mexico St.WACCUSACUSA 253
Sam Houston St.WACCUSACUSA 143
SeattleWACWACWAC 140
Southern UtahWACWACWAC 232
Stephen F. AustinWACWACWAC 92
Tarleton St.WACWACWAC 170
UT ArlingtonWACWACWAC 173
UT Rio Grande ValleyWACWACWAC 295
Utah TechWACWACWAC 222
Utah ValleyWACWACWAC 184


Better late than never - this is one of 32 lists of All-Conference teams based on the "resurrected" Value Add Basketball rankings at www.valueaddbasketball.com. The other 31 releases of Conference teams will all include this same explanation for the rest of the blog, including the 10 returning All-Americans and top 60 players from last season listed further down.

This paragraph is of interest to stat nerds only. The offensive ratings were easier to recreate, since the basis was to pull hundreds of players ranked as the most efficient last season (AdjO at www.kenpom.com) and adjusting their figures for their percent of possessions. A player who can produce about 1.2 points per time he has the ball who also gets the ball 25% of the time against tough competition and as part of a strong defense can be All-American level, but a player who doesn't get the ball nearly as often but produces even more at 1.3 points per possession can still be All-Conference even if fans feel other players handling and shooting the ball more are better due to higher points scored per game.

The new simplified system weighs their ability to produce points against the Adjusted Defense (AdjD) - that is how many points per 100 trips would their team allow against an average D1 team. This accounts both for defense and for level of competition. We also note if a player is a Point Guard, the most important position on the court.

The resulting "Value" listed in the third column is the Value Add of points the player would improve an average team over if he could not play if a decent replacement took his place. Zach Edey was by far the most valuable player in the country last year at 13.17 meaning typically he would turn a 65-70 loss for a team into a 72-64 win - a 13 point swing. The notes off to the first indicated the team's record, their seed if they made the tournament, and then if they went to the NBA in the 2023 draft or are projected to go in the 2024 or 2025 draft.

1st and 2nd Team Returning All-Americans; and Top 60 Players from Last Season
 
The table below is the list of the 30 most valuable players in college basketball for the 2022-23 season according to our simplified www.valueaddbasketball.com rankings. Obviously most of these top players finished their eligibility or went pro so are no longer playing. However, if we made this our All-American teams of returning players including transfers at their new school the headline would be from Creighton.

1st Team Returning All-Americans - Value Add Basketball calculates that Creighton now has two of the three most valuable players in 2022-23 in returning Ryan Kalkbrenner and Utah State transfer Steven Ashworth. Ironically, Thursday it was Colorado State that handed Creighton its first loss - a team that Ashworth had dominated four of seven times in conference games at Utah State. The other 1st Team All-Americans based on last year's Value Add would be J'Wan Roberts returning for Houston, and then Tylor Perry who transferred from North Texas to Kansas State.

Most Valuable Player for 2nd Year. However, the far and away Most Valuable Player in the Country could challenge Anthony Davis, Jon Scheyer and Zion Williamson for as the most Valuable college player of the century in the All-Time Value Add Basketball Rankings - Zach Edey who was almost 2 points better than anyone in the country last year at Purdue and has them at No. 1 this season.

2nd Team Returning All-Americans - The 6th most valuable returning player according to Value Add is Marquette Point Guard Tyler Kolek. He would be joined on a second team All-American squad of returning players by Tennessee's Santiago Vescovi, Texas transfer from Oral Roberts Max Abmas, Duke's Ryan Young, Arizona's Azuolas Tubelis and finally Cam Spencer, who transferred from Rutgers to UConn.

In all, 18 of the top 30 players finished their college careers, leaving those 10 returning All-Americans and then two other players - JaKobe Coles of TCU and USC's Boogie Ellis.
 
All-American 1st Team    Team               Value    AdjO  AdjDNotes                                                
Zach EdeyPurdue13.17125.994.51-seed, 29-6, nba 58 in 2024
Adama Sanogo (gone)Connecticut11.37122.690.94-seed, 31-8, Poss 26.4%
Marcus Sasser (gone)Houston11.25123.490.41-seed, 33-4, nba 25 in 2023
Ryan KalkbrennerCreighton10.80133.493.26-seed, 24-13, Poss 19.4%
Steven Ashworth (Creigh)Utah St.10.72127.798.910-seed, 26-9 (PG), Poss 21.6%
All-American 2nd TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Tylor Perry (K-State)North Texas10.37124.394.131-7, Poss 24.4%
Brandon Miller (gone)Alabama10.23117.088.21-seed, 31-6, nba 2 in 2023
Xavier Castaneda (gone)Akron9.94121.9103.422-11 (PG), Poss 29.4%
J'Wan RobertsHouston9.90127.990.41-seed, 33-4, Poss 18.4%
Jordan Hawkins (gone)Connecticut9.88121.290.94-seed, 31-8, nba 14 in 2023
All-American 3rd TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Jaime Jaquez (gone)UCLA9.80113.1882-seed, 31-6, nba 18 in 2023
Jalen Pickett (gone)Penn St.9.66118.7101.110-seed, 23-14 (PG), nba 32 in 2023
Jordan Walker (gone)UAB9.64114.797.929-10 (PG), Poss 30.6%
Tyler KolekMarquette9.6311896.72-seed, 29-7 (PG), Poss 24.1%
Santiago VescoviTennessee9.52114.287.54-seed, 25-11 (PG), Poss 18.8%
All-American 4th TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Max Abmas (Texas)Oral Roberts9.47120.2102.212-seed, 30-5 (PG), Poss 27.6%
Trayce Jackson-Davis (g)Indiana9.45118.597.24-seed, 23-12, nba 57 in 2023
Ryan YoungDuke9.37128.793.95-seed, 27-9, Poss 18.3%
Kendric Davis (grad)Memphis9.24111.196.18-seed, 26-9 (PG), Poss 31.6%
Drew Timme (grad)Gonzaga9.21119.699.33-seed, 31-6, Poss 30.6%
All-American 5th TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Markquis Nowell (gone)Kansas St.8.92111953-seed, 26-10 (PG), Poss 27.6%
Souley Boum (gone)Xavier8.87119.298.63-seed, 27-10 (PG), Poss 21.2%
Oscar Tshiebwe (gone)Kentucky8.83122.698.86-seed, 22-12, Poss 24.5%
Terence Lewis (gone)Louisiana8.74131.2102.913-seed, 26-8, Poss 20.3%
Darius McGhee (gone)Liberty8.68114.597.527-9, Poss 33.4%
All-American 6th TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Azuolas TubelisArizona8.68116.196.32-seed, 28-7, Poss 28.7%
Cam Spencer (UConn)Rutgers8.66119.490.819-15, Poss 19.8%
Sir'Jabari Rice (gone)Texas8.66116.392.12-seed, 29-9, Poss 23.4%
JaKobe ColesTCU8.64118.494.36-seed, 22-13, Poss 23.4%
Boogie EllisUSC8.56113.397.510-seed, 22-11 (PG), Poss 25.7%

Tuesday, January 18, 2022

WAC All-Conference Team Based on Value Add Ratings Through January 17

We updated the Value Add Basketball All-Conference teams initially posted at Christmas. Note that we list the number of games played and started for each player, so you know if a particular game performance was included, and find all 4000+ players listed at www.valueaddbasketball.com

Jovan Blacksher is not leading for Value Add Player of the Year but has Grand Canyon 4-0, and if they can win two more tough games they would head into New Mexico State on January 29 in quite a show down for the early edge in the conference race.

Click on Top 25 Value Add Basketball Players & Top 15 in Each Conference to see the top 25 players in the country and links to the other 31 conference lists like the one below.

RnkWAC All-ConferenceTeamValueHtClAdjOAdjDGms, Starts
1Jovan Blacksher #10Grand Canyon6.145'11"Jr5.17-0.98GP,GS: 14, 14
2Sadaidriene Hall #3Stephen F. Austin5.886'5"Fr4.61-1.26GP,GS: 12, 1
3Coryon Mason #20Abilene Christian5.306'0Sr3.93-1.37GP,GS: 13, 10
4Fardaws Aimaq #11Utah Valley4.956'11"So2.94-2.01GP,GS: 15, 15
5Jabari Rice #10New Mexico St.4.906'4"Jr4.08-0.82GP,GS: 14, 14
6Cameron Tyson #5Seattle4.866'2"So4.57-0.30GP,GS: 14, 14
7Montre Gipson #11Tarleton St.4.725'11"Sr4.35-0.37GP,GS: 16, 16
8Teddy Allen #0New Mexico St.4.566'6"Jr3.20-1.36GP,GS: 14, 14
9Darrion Trammell #2Seattle4.395'10"So2.95-1.44GP,GS: 14, 14
10Tahj Small #4Tarleton St.3.896'5"Sr3.18-0.71GP,GS: 14, 13
11Daniel Akin #30Cal Baptist3.576'9"Sr3.08-0.49GP,GS: 13, 13
12Gabe McGlothan #30Grand Canyon3.506'7"Jr2.44-1.06GP,GS: 14, 13
13Will McNair #13New Mexico St.3.446'10"So2.34-1.10GP,GS: 14, 14
14Holland Woods #11Grand Canyon3.426'1"Sr3.31-0.11GP,GS: 12, 12
15Blaze Nield #3Utah Valley3.296'1"Jr3.20-0.10GP,GS: 15, 15

Saturday, December 25, 2021

Western Athletic Conference Top 15 Men’s Basketball Players To Date

 For Immediate Release

John Pudner, 404.606.3163, johnp@takebackaction.org


Western Athletic Conference Top 15 Men’s Basketball Players To Date


“Value Add Basketball is happy to provide the early list of the conferences top 15 men’s  basketball players based on proven analytics used by NBA teams for draft prep,as well as writers at Sports Illustrated, ESPN, NBC Sports, Fox Sports,” said John Pudner, the inventor of the system.”


“The WAC fields one of the most balanced and competitive conferences and list of potential all-conference players, but right now we give recent newcomer Tarleton St. the player of the year in point guard Montre Gipson.Utah Valley’s Fardaws Aimaq is slightly behind him in the No. 2 spot, and once again has the top defensive rating in the conference after winning Defensive Player of the Year last year. In addition to the top 15 overall players, we listed five other great defenders who could give him a run or at least fill out a WAC All-Defensive squad, and Coryon Mason of Abilene Christian made the Southland’s All-Defensive squad before transferring.”

.”

“Our best guess in this balanced conference is a title game between New Mexico State and our No. 3 ranked player Jabari Rice, and Grand Canyon and our No. 4 player Jovan Blacksher.”


You can click on this google doc with information on all 4,000+ players prior to it being posted on www.valueaddbasketball.com. You can also click here for the top 100 players in the country.


Information includes each player’s chance of making the NBA, his Value Add Rating for how many points he impacts a typical game (roughly 10 points is All-American level). The key to the table is: Rank = the player's conference ranking, Value Add = how many points he improves his team over a replacement player, Class = if he is in his 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th and final year of eligibility, Ht = his height, AdjD = how many points he takes away from opponents, and NBA = his percent chance of making the NBA.


Feel free to use any information contained in these statements as wanted, and email (johnp@takebackaction.org), or text/call 404.606.3163 for any questions or additional quotes from John Pudner.


RankWACTeamValue AddClassHtAdjDNBA
1Montre GipsonTarleton St.6.08Sr5'11"-0.741%
2Fardaws AimaqUtah Valley5.89So6'11"-3.511%
3Jabari RiceNew Mexico St.5.68Jr6'4"-1.131%
4Jovan BlacksherGrand Canyon5.53Jr5'11"-1.391%
5Tahj SmallTarleton St.5.44Sr6'5"-1.321%
6Mahki MorrisAbilene Christian4.88Sr6'3"-0.931%
7Daniel AkinCal Baptist4.83Sr6'9"-1.371%
8Immanuel AllenAbilene Christian4.72Jr6'4"-0.931%
9David KachelriesStephen F. Austin4.41Sr6'1"0.11%
10Coryon MasonAbilene Christian4.39Sr6'0-1.71%
11Cameron GoodenDixie St.4.36Jr5'11"0.21%
12Sadaidriene HallStephen F. Austin4.36Fr6'5"-1.411%
13Cameron TysonSeattle4.2So6'2"-0.331%
14Holland WoodsGrand Canyon3.65Sr6'1"-0.451%
15Javion MaySam Houston St.3.6Jr6'2"-0.921%
DefShamir BoguesTarleton St.2.62So6'4"-2.941%
DefFreddy HicksTarleton St.1.21So6'6"-2.081%
DefDarrion TrammellSeattle2.57So5'10"-21%
DefCalvin SolomonStephen F. Austin1.28Jr6'7"-1.971%
DefWill McNairNew Mexico St.3.6So6'10"-1.91%