Calculated Value Add Basketball Game Cards - 2nd of 2 Posts

The 136th team has been added to the Value Add Basketball Game cards. If you click on that link, you can print page 111 to get the Stephen F. Austin cards without having to scroll through the 136 pages - one team to a page.

In the previous blog we walked through the calculations to create the offensive ranges on the card. In this blog we cover Steps 6 though 13 for creating your own teams, and in this case we completed all steps to create our 136th All-Time Great team, the 14-seed Stephen F. Austin team that in 2016 blew out 3-seed West Virginia behind 33 points by Thomas Walkup. It was the 13th MVP in 15 games according to www.kenpom.com, and Walkup & SFA already upset 5-seed VCU in March Madness, and would have gone to the Sweet 16 but for a desperation tap by Notre Dame in the next game.

The cards below have been added as the 136th team, and to invent any new team you want, you can first review the previous blog on how to make your own cards.You can then use steps 6 to 13 below to create any other new team you would like to add. 

Steps 1-5 on the previous blog cover the parts of the cards above already calculated. The following steps fill in the rest of the information.

Step 6. Add Points Per Game or Value Add Ranking in Line 2. While not a necessary step, I like to add the points per game for players from the last Century, or the Value Add Basketball Ranking for each player to give a quick reference for the top players. In this case I click on https://valueaddbasketball.com/ballall.html and search by Stephen F. Austin and 2016 and get this sheet.

This is also a nice double check on our line-ups, and in this case I noticed that we calculated Clide Geffrard as the 2nd best player on the team behind Walkup, while I had slated him as the back-up Power Forward. When I looked closer, he did play 62% of the minutes so has great endurance, but he did start only two of 30 games - so he was the incredible 6th man in games. I left him at "back-up" Power Forward, but when playing the game you can use a player where ever you want and either as a sub or starter - just use Stamina to make sure they don't play too much.

Because there are more than 4,000 players every year, we list a player near the top 40 as "top 1%" of players, then close to the top 200 is top "5%,", close to the top 400 is "top 10%," etc. On the cards based on their Value Add we added to the card:

Walkup 1st/MVP

Geffrard top 10%

Floyd top 15%

Charles top 25%

Holyfield top 30%

Johnson top 50%

Then we don't list anyone for the others, as they are not in the top 50%.

Stats for National AdjO, TO%, Blk% and Stl% for Final Steps

For the final steps, you will need to scroll up to the top of the team sheet to record the national averages circled below. In 2016, the national AdjO = 104.8, Turnover% = 18.1, Block% = 9.2 and Steal% = 8.6.

Step 7. Calculating Steals on the Card. Steals occur on 11-16 or 31 on the 11-66 dice rolls. To determine the player's steal% (4.0 for Walkup) by 15 (60 for Walkup) and divide by the league team Steal % (8.6 in 2016) so that equals 6.97 for Walkup. This rounds to 7 steal numbers for an 11-17 steals on Walkup's card. Keep in mind a guard always has the option of a fast break off a steal, a forward has the option if the roll was odd numbers (11,13,15,31) and a center can never start a fast break off a steal.

 

If you want the more detailed reverse engineering -

To calculate each players steal range, you start by finding the average steal rate that season, which was 8.6, and divide that by 5 players to get the average steal percentage per player that year of 1.72. Therefore a exactly average player with a 1.72 Steal% will steal the ball on half the main range - a roll of 11-13 when the player he is guarding has the ball.

You divide that by 3 to get 0.57, meaning a player should get one steal for every 0.57. Therefore that calculates to this table, which is pretty close to what you will have most years. Here are the ranges and the number of steals we add to each player on the Stephen F. Austin players, who had the 5th highest overall steal teams with Walkup stealing on 11-16 (the 11-17 is a little better for advanced games) and three other players stealing the ball on five of the six steal numbers of 11-15 (Charles, Floyd and Pinkey).

1 steal for every	Bottom Range	Top Range	Steals 11-	Stephen F. Austin Steal Ranges
0.57	0	0.28	No Steals
0.57	0.29	0.85	11-11'	Cameron 0.1
0.57	0.86	1.42	11-12'	Williams 0.9
0.57	1.43	1.99	11-13'	Holyfield 1.7, Johnson 1.4, Bain 1.7
0.57	2	2.56	11-14'	Geffrard 2.4
0.57	2.57	3.13	11-15'	Charles 3.0, Floyd 2.7, Pinkey 3.1
0.57	3.14	3.7	11-16'
0.57	3.71	4.27	11-17'	Walkup 4.0
0.57	4.28	4.84	11-18'
0.57	4.85	5.41	11-19'
0.57	5.42	or higher	11-20'	A player with this steals 31 on all cards

Steal 8. Calculate Blocks on card. The math is the same basic math. In this case TJ Holyfield blocks 8.3% of all 2-point shots while he is on the courts almost as many as the average team (9.2) in 2016, so he calculates with more than the max 10 block shot numbers.

Here is how the equation calculates for all players in the order the cards will be printed.

Player	Blk%	Card Blocks	Ht
Trey Pinkney	0.1	0.2	5'9
Demetrious Floyd	0.5	0.8	5'11
Thomas Walkup	1.9	3.1	6'4
Ty Charles	1.5	2.4	6'5
TJ Holyfield	8.3	13.5	6'8
Jared Johnson	0	0.0	5'0
Dallas Cameron	0.4	0.7	6'3
Nathan Bain	4.2	6.8	6'6
Clide Geffrard	2	3.3	6'5
CJ Williams	0.4	0.7	6'7

The block range is 21-26 on the card and can go up to 21-30 on the card, which like steals, really means 21-26 blocked shot on the player he is guarding, and then on a 32 roll he blocks the shot no matter which of the five opposing players has the ball. Since Holyfield's 13.5 is will behind the maximum 10, he gets a 21-30 on his card and blocks a shot any time a 32 is rolled, no matter who the ball went to on the other team.

Therefore Pinkney has a "None" by his blocks because 0.2 rounds down to 0, Floyd blocks only on 21 since 0.8 rounds up, Walkup blocks on 21-23 for his 31. etc.

Steal 9. Fouls. The FC/40 factor, fouls charged on a player per 40 minutes, translate onto a straight table for how many fouls are charge to him in the 33-36 defensive foul range.

FC/40 bottom range	FC/40 top range	Fouls on card
0	2	No fouls
2.01	3	36
3.01	4	35-36
4.01	5	34-36
5.01	higher	33-36

 

Here are the actual ranges based on the SFA 2016 players. Three players committed a lot of fouls, and thus have the highest 33-36 range. Keep in mind half the fouls charged are from the offensive player that the defender is guarding.

Player	FC/40	Card Fouls
Trey Pinkney	3.4	35-36
Demetrious Floyd	2.3	36-36
Thomas Walkup	3.8	35-36
Ty Charles	4.5	34-36
TJ Holyfield	6.9	33-36
Jared Johnson	5.5	33-36
Dallas Cameron	3.5	35-36
Nathan Bain	3.6	35-36
Clide Geffrard	4.0	35-36
CJ Williams	6.2	33-36

Steal 10. Turnovers. The same basic math works with the turnovers, since half of all turnovers committee by a team result from the defensive card steals against him. The turnovers on these cards are dead ball turnovers (thrown out of bounds, traveling, etc.) - unlike steals the do not result in a potential fast break. 

Start by looking up the TORate for the entire league. There is no need to divide by 5, because the League Average and Player Average are both the percent time the ball is turned over.

Floyd was the best at protecting the ball on SFA 2016. Here is the equation to run:

Players Turnover Rate (10.6 for Floyd) MINUS half of the league TORate (17.7 is the league average so use 8.85 in this part of the question) and for Floyd that equals 1.75 for Floyd. This number is then divided by 3 (leaving 0.6 for Floyd) which barely rounds up to 1 turnover. Since the turnover range starts at 41 you then just add 40 to that number (to get 40.6 for Floyd) which just misses a "None" on turnovers, but does round up to a 41 to make 41-41 as a range. Williams had the most turnovers on the team, calculating to a 41-47, but the highest range is 41-46 so that is his range. Here are the turnover ranges for each SFA 2016 team.

Player	TORate	Half Lg	minus	div 3 + 40	Card
Trey Pinkney	22.0	8.85	13.15	44.4	41-44
Demetrious Floyd	10.6	8.85	1.75	40.6	41-41
Thomas Walkup	12.0	8.85	3.15	41.1	41-41
Ty Charles	19.5	8.85	10.65	43.6	41-44
TJ Holyfield	27.1	8.85	18.25	46.1	41-46
Jared Johnson	17.2	8.85	8.35	42.8	41-43
Dallas Cameron	14.9	8.85	6.05	42.0	41-42
Nathan Bain	20.3	8.85	11.45	43.8	41-44
Clide Geffrard	15.9	8.85	7.05	42.4	41-42
CJ Williams	29.8	8.85	20.95	47.0	41-46
League Average	17.7	8.85	8.85	43.0	41-43

Step 11. Determine Stamina of each player - how many of 44 possessions he can play before losing effectiveness. 

The formula for Stamina uses the players Min% (percent of minutes played)

Stamina = (Min% x 0.66) – 11

Here is the calculation for each SFA 2016 player.

Player	%Min	x .66 - 11	Optional list possessions
Trey Pinkney	67.8	45	PG 44-1
Demetrious Floyd	61.8	41	SG 41-1
Thomas Walkup	75.2	50	SF 44-1
Ty Charles	62.3	41	PF 44-42, 38-1?
TJ Holyfield	50.2	33	C 44-38, then 25-23 then ?
Jared Johnson	28.7	19	if 3-pts needed
Dallas Cameron	42.5	28
Nathan Bain	11.2	7
Clide Geffrard	62.6	41	SG 44-41, PF 40-38, C 37-27 then 24-1?
CJ Williams	21.4	14

An option at this stage is to not only enter the Stamina number, but go ahead and try to figure out the rotation of players you would typically use in the game. 

When looking over SFA's 2016 staminas, there is plenty of stamina on the team so I would use a 6- to 7-man rotation and probably not put Cameron, Bain or Williams in the game unless there is foul trouble.

As noted above, Geffrard only started two games but was actually the second most valuable on the team. While Pinkney and Walkup can play all 44 possessions (44-1 in the notes) both Floyd and Charles need to sit out just 3 possessions with their 41 Stamina. Therefore I have Geffrard play the first three possessions in place of the SG (he isn't really playing the SG position, but it's easier to note that way on who he is replacing from the starting line). Then he plays the next three possessions (40-38) in place of the Power Forward. 

Since Holyfield at center is a 33 he needs to rest at least 11 possessions, I put Geffrard in for the Center for those 11 possessions from 37-27. Geffrard then needs to sit 3 possessions, so I have him sit possessions 26, 25 and 24 with Holyfield in his place.

At that point, we have possessions 23 - 1 (the end of the game) to play and Geffrard and Holyfield both have Stamina to play the game. We calculate Geffrard as the higher ranged player so we may leave him in the rest of the game - but as noted above, Holyfield is the great defensive shot blocker so we might want him to protect the lead - so we may decide based on the game situation.

At very least, these six players will play every game. The other player I see who I might use in certain situations is the backup point guard Jared Johnson, who is the deadliest 3-point shooter on the team with a 1-6 range on the 20-sided die of making a 3-point shot. He could be key to a late rally if behind of even just needing a 3-point shot down 3 at the end.

None of these rotations are required, they are just suggestions when you pull out a team for the first time. The only key is not to have a player still on the court after their Stamina runs out, because then they are tired and every die roll of any kind is adjusted one against them in whatever direction hurts them.

Step 12. Determine the Offensive and Defensive Rebound Range of each player.

Walkup was the best rebounder on the team, just edging Holyfield. The formulas to determine if a player grabs a rebound he has a chance to get on the Rebound Chart and a 1-6 roll, is as follows:

Take the players Offensive Rebound % (Walkup 9.2 OR%) and multiply by 0.5, then add 1.2 and the rounded number for Walkup is 6, meaning he gets the offensive rebound on any of the rolls of 1-6 if the 20-sided die gives him the chance at the rebound after SFA misses a shot. Note that while that is the whole range, players can have a higher range which lets them get rebounds when the game calls for the highest rebound number in the game. For example, Purdue's center this year - Zach Eddy - had a 20.7 OR% which gives him a 1-12.

The Defensive Rebound % (Walkup 18.6) is multiplied by a lower number, 0.25 (leaving 4.65 for Walkup) and then you subtract 1.2 and round (leaving 3 for Walkup).

Therefore Walkup gets a 1-6 for Offensive Rebounds (excellent) and a 1-3 for Defensive Rebounds (average). As a whole SFA was a very good offensive rebounding team but overall pretty weak defensive rebounding team. Here is the same calculation for each player on the team and what will end up on their car.

In my notes on rotation of players above I did not include Williams, but looking at these calculations he is the only good defensive rebounder on the team, so if that became an issue against a certain team it might make sense to sub him into to the game.

Player	OR%	*.5	Card+1.2	DR%	*.25	Card-1.2
Trey Pinkney	1.5	0.75	1-2	6.8	1.7	1-1
Demetrious Floyd	1.5	0.75	1-2	6.8	1.7	1-1
Thomas Walkup	9.2	4.6	1-6	18.6	4.65	1-3
Ty Charles	7.3	3.65	1-5	13.9	3.475	1-2
TJ Holyfield	8.8	4.4	1-6	17.2	4.3	1-3
Jared Johnson	2.8	1.4	1-3	6.5	1.625	None
Dallas Cameron	2.9	1.45	1-3	3.9	0.975	None
Nathan Bain	7.2	3.6	1-5	22	5.5	1-4
Clide Geffrard	9.8	4.9	1-6	18	4.5	1-3
CJ Williams	7.1	3.55	1-5	25.1	6.275	1-5

At this stage, the cards have been filled into this level:

Step 13. At this stage the cards are set except for the last piece - the crucial dunk range.

The cards would be accurate at this stage if all teams played roughly the same Strength of Schedule, like in a professional league. This is not true in the game, where most teams played against a very high level of competition in one of the Power 6 conferences or a High Mid-Major, in addition to several elite March Madness opponents. 

However, playing in the Southland Conference, SFA faced a much lower level of competition, and the Dunk Range is the adjustment for that. The two key www.kenpon.com stats that measure that are the opponent's OppO (how tough were the opposing offenses) and OppD (who tough were the opposing defenses). In 2016, the average AdjO (points per 100 possessions) was a very high 104.8. However, SFA's competition most of the year was not Elite like most teams in the game, and in fact was well below average as show by their numbers.

SFA faced only the 251st best opposing offenses (average 102.7 points per a hundred trips, two points less than the league average of 104.8.

SFA faced only the 321st best defenses in the country (average allowing 108.6 points per 100 trips adjusted for their competition, so 3.8 points more than the average team would allow).

If a team played average opponents all year (104.8 AdjO and AdjD) then their dunk range would calculated as three dunk numbers (51-53) and a balanced defensive number of +0 that did not either add or subtract from the opponent's dunk range.

Here is the basic calculation for the two figures for each team:

 

Calculations for team's Offensive Dunk Range	SFA Tally
Opp AdjD (Opponents Adjusted Defense)	108.6
League Average Adj0 that season - 104.8 in 2016	104.8
Subtract League Average from Opp AdjD	3.8
Multiply by 0.72	0.72
equals what an average offense should score against defenses they faced	2.736
The Final Dunk Range numbers is 3 minus number above (3 - 2.24 rounds to 1)	0.264
The Dunk Range starts at 51, but with SFA having 0 dunks is calculates as 51-50	51-50

Calculations for team's Defensive Adjustment to Opponents Dunk Range	SFA Tally
Opp AdjO (Opponents Adjusted Offense)	102.7
League Average Adj0 that season - 104.8 in 2016	104.8
Subtract Opp AdjO from League Average	2.1
Multiply by 0.72	0.72
equals +3	1.512
Add or Subtract Rounded Figure Above as Adjustment to Opponents Dunk	+2

There is an alternate method of plugging numbers into this google sheet to calculate both.

With these 13 steps complete, the following is the 136th team in our Value Add Basketball Game Great Teams set - the 2016 Stephen F. Austin team.