Wednesday, August 14, 2019

(AL Playoffs Now Set) 162nd Game: Twins Seek Statis-Pro Playoffs vs. Reds’ Bauer, Aquino’s Home Run Range of 23-52

New Note August 17, 2019: Last season's AL Statis-Pro playoffs featured the Indians, Astros, Yankees and Red Sox - which all finished between 38-22 and 36-24 - and the stunning White Sox who snuck ahead of the rest for the last spot before losing to the Red Sox in the wild card game.

This year we are playing the big season in the NL, which dominated the AL 100-77 with only 3 games left between the Padres and A's. The same Big 4 AL teams are back in the playoffs in our mini 12-game standings from the AL from interleague play - where the NL Dominated 100-77 with only 3 games left between the Padres and A's (who are eliminated). Only 3 AL Teams had winning records in those series leaving these playoffs:

Tampa Bay Rays (6-6) vs. Boston Red Sox (6-6) in one game, with winner at Minnesota Twins (7-5) in one game for wild card.

Wild Card Winner vs. Cleveland Indians (9-3 - with Kluber and Carrasco as opposed to real season) Best of 7

Houston Astros (7-5) vs. New York Yankees (7-5) in best of 7

Original Post

(Click to play your own games)

OK, I’m just kidding on the HR Range. The actual Statis-Pro card for the Reds’ replacement for Puig if you calculated it for Aristides Aquino - would yield a home run range of 23-52.

This means he would hit a home run about three out of every eight times the pitcher failed to control the action. However, we actually use projected OPS for simple Statis-Pro cards for late Statis-Pro cards – and the Rotoworld .792 OPS (as opposed to his actual 1.454) yields a home run range of 26-33.

That yields a great 161st game of the Statis-Pro season where Aquino – the player who replaced Puig in the line-up – starts behind Trevor Bauer who replaced Puig on the roster at the trade deadline.

In odd years I play a robust NL season, but do have each AL team ranked based on their record in interleague games.

After the AL dominated my Statis-Pro All-Star game, I was surprised to realize the NL actually has a 87-69 edge over the AL in my Statis-Pro season this year, only to discover that in the actual MLB the NL held a 119-101 edge this year and actually broke the AL's long run with a 157-143 edge last year.

While some who play Statis-Pro (or other board games) replay an entire 162-game schedule for a particular team, I am actually hitting my 161st and 162nd Statis-Pro games this year for all teams with a series between the surprising 1st place Twins and the Reds, who now feature the most exciting story of the past two weeks - Aristides Aquino.

Baring a stunning outburst by the Angels or Athletics in their final series, the Twins can catch the Indians for my Statis-Pro AL Central title with a mark of 5-1 or 6-0 (see this blog on how each game counts as three). If they go 1-5 or 0-6 they miss out on the playoffs completely, leaving the Rays and Red Sox to battle it out. While both teams are further down in my simple power rankings of their current projected Statis-Pro cards, the fact that the Reds' Bauer (top 15% of all pitchers as a PB: 2-8) will face Michael Pineda (exactly average PB: 4-7) and the Reds' Sonny Gray (top 35% as PB: 2-7) will face Martin Perez (below average PB: 2-6) gives the Reds' the pitching edge in both games to give the Twins a tough two games.

Anything in between – from 2-4 to 4-2 – means the Twins are in the wild card mix with the Rays and Red Sox, either hosting the winner of a playoff game between those two or in a 3-way tie.

In summary, the very likely AL playoffs:

Yankees 7-5 vs. Astros 7-5
Indians 9-3 vs. wild card winner from among Twins 4-2, Rays 6-6 and Red Sox 6-6

Other scenarios:

Twins catch Indians for division by going 5-1 then winning one-game playoff with Indians OR go 6-0
Twins go 1-5 to fall behind Rays and Red Sox and miss playoff completely
Angels or Athletics go 5-1 or 6-0 to get in Wild Card mix.

Bigger NL Statis-Pro Season

This is actually my year to play off the entire NL season, so they have a much longer season and account for most of the 160 games played entering the final interleague Statis-Pro series.

As for the Reds, they can get to .500 by winning the series and hope that the additions of Aquino and Bauer give them a shot to make the Statis-Pro NL playoffs, which will play out for a while. Here are the standings heading into that series, which are updated with short summaries on all 162 game plus on this google sheet.

CubsNL Central32220.5930
CardinalsNL Central26280.4816
RedsNL Central23250.4796
BrewersNL Central25290.4637
PiratesNL Central20280.4179
NationalsNL East31230.5740
PhilliesNL East34260.5670
BravesNL East30240.5561
MetsNL East29250.5372
MarlinsNL East18360.33312
DodgersNL West37170.6850
GiantsNL West32280.5338
DiamondbacksNL West30300.50011
PadresNL West24240.50010
RockiesNL West20280.41714

Additional note - Twins did clinch the playoffs in an incredible pitchers duel in which aces Pineda and Bauer both went 8 IP with a combined 21 strikeouts, no walks, and 1 run allowed for each. Twins won in the 10th when Dywon doubled home pinch runner Gordon. Reds win the nightcap 5-1 to go to 26-28.

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